The market is extremely Bearish!2024: Yields crashed -16% in weeks before the Fed’s first cut. Markets rushed into bonds, betting big on lower rates. —> Effect is Bullish!2025: Yields are rising +5% into the next cut. Investors are dumping bonds, demanding higher payback to lend money. —> Effect is Bearish!This is dangerous. Imagine your credit card company telling you “we lowered your rate,” but the bank suddenly doubles the cost of your mortgage. That’s what’s happening: the Fed cuts short rates, but long ...

Market Trends & Analysis - Yields are rangebound, indicating a neutral stance from an intermediate and long-term perspective [2] - The 10-year Treasury yield has support around 42% and resistance around 44% [3] - A breakout from the yield range would suggest higher yields, while a breakdown could lead to secondary support around 40% [4] - Small caps, represented by the Russell 2000, show strong upside momentum in both the intermediate and short term [6] - The Russell 2000 exhibits a cup and handle formation, suggesting a potential lift to new highs [6] - Consolidation is expected for small caps, aligning with seasonal influences and overbought conditions [7] - Large cap indices are losing upside momentum, potentially impacting the Russell 2000 [8] - The VIX is above its 50-day moving average, indicating expanding volatility inversely correlated to the S&P 500 [9] Crude Oil Analysis - Crude oil prices are still in a secular downtrend, requiring a substantial upside move to reverse [9] - There are indications on the monthly chart of WTI suggesting a major low in March/April, based on long-term oversold readings [10] Energy Sector - The energy sector shows signs of life, with some MLPs lifting out of prolonged consolidation phases [11] - Phillips 66 (PSX) shows a potential inverse head and shoulders formation, indicating constructive technical action despite long-term downside momentum [11]

Friday. Joining us this morning is bespoke co co-founder Paul Hickeyi to discuss. Paul, let's get the fall started.Good to have you. Um, talk about September season seasonality and whether or not there are elements that might make this particular round of September maybe a little less than feared. Yes.I mean, September, we all know it's historically a weak time of year uh for the markets overall. Uh, especially look at I mean what we've done the last four months. We're up 1% four months in a row.Um, you kno ...

Yields on 30-year UK bonds will climb above 6% by the end of the year as investor confidence over the nation’s fiscal outlook falters, according to Franklin Templeton https://t.co/N8Kkdwgoqd ...

Market Sentiment - Dip buyers are returning to French bonds [1] Bond Market - French bond yields surged following a surprise call for a confidence vote by PM Francois Bayrou [1] Company Actions - Amundi notes the return of dip buyers [1]

Treasuries held an advance that sent shorter-maturity yields to the lowest levels of the past month despite cool demand for an auction of five-year notes https://t.co/PgJq0XBGG2 ...

Korea Investment & Securities plans to buy unhedged super-long Japanese government bonds for the first time to take advantage of rich yields https://t.co/7oZnaz2sdb ...

Bonds with the longest maturities are disappearing from Japan’s corporate market as surging yields push companies into shorter debt, saving costs for now but leaving them more exposed to refinancing risks https://t.co/fKYOvIlmcK ...

Yields on Japan’s super-long government bonds climbed to multi-decade highs, driven by persistent concerns over fiscal expansion and fading demand from key investors https://t.co/kxbDQgvUFZ ...

Market Trends - Chinese bonds' selloff, pushing them near the bottom of Asian performance, is expected to slow down [1] - Bond yields are rising to levels that some investors might find appealing [1]