Europe Credit Research 04 November 2025 J P M O R G A N Sector Review How should investors position into 1H26? In our view, investors are not just suffering from recession fatigue but full blown recession exhaustion. We have had four scares in as many years - including the energy crisis after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the regional banking crisis in 2023 with the collapse of SVB and Credit Suisse, the 'Sahm rule' trigger in 2024 with the US unemployment rate rising by 0.6% from the lows, and t ...

5 November 2025 | 12:06PM HKT Economics Research China: Unofficial services PMI edged down in October; October inflation and credit preview Bottom line: The headline RatingDog China Services PMI (formerly the Caixin services PMI) edged down to 52.6 in October from 52.9 in September, suggesting services sector activity continued to expand but at a slightly slower pace. Key numbers: S&P Global services PMI: 52.6 in October (Bloomberg consensus: 52.5), vs. 52.9 in September. Main points: 1. The RatingDog China ...

Core Insights - Berkshire Hathaway's operating earnings increased by 34% year-on-year to $13.5 billion, driven by a significant rise in insurance underwriting income, which nearly tripled to $2.4 billion [1][2] - The company's cash reserves reached a record high of over $350 billion, specifically $358 billion, or $382 billion when excluding payables for Treasury purchases [3] - Warren Buffett's investment strategy showed a net selling position for the 12th consecutive quarter, with $6.4 billion spent on stocks and $12.5 billion sold [2][3] Financial Performance - Operating income surged by 34% year-on-year to $13.5 billion [1] - Insurance underwriting income nearly tripled to $2.4 billion [1] - Profits increased in the BNSF Railway and manufacturing, service, and retailing divisions, while Berkshire Hathaway Energy and the insurance investment segment experienced a decline in operating earnings [2] Investment Activity - Buffett did not repurchase any Berkshire shares for the fifth consecutive quarter, indicating a lack of perceived value in the company's stock [3] - The company will disclose its stock transactions in a regulatory filing later this month [2] Leadership Transition - Warren Buffett announced his intention to step down as CEO at the end of the year after 55 years in the role, with Greg Abel set to succeed him while Buffett remains as chairman [4] - Despite the leadership transition, Berkshire made a significant acquisition, agreeing to pay nearly $10 billion for OxyChem from Occidental Petroleum [5]

October 31, 2025 05:01 AM GMT China Economics | Asia Pacific Oct PMI: Payback, But Some Greenshoots Key Takeaways Manufacturing PMI held up better than it appears: The sharp drop in Oct manufacturing PMI was mainly due to the timing shift of the Mid-Autumn Festival to October this year, which led to front-loaded production in September. Removing the distortion, Sep-Oct combined manufacturing PMI was at 49.4, the same as the Aug reading. Signs of fiscal pass-through: Both construction and service PMIs underp ...

Key Takeaways Cost of sales and services makes up about half of Berkshire's total costs and 45% of total revenues.Controlling these costs supports margin growth, cash generation and reinvestment opportunities.A decentralized model lets subsidiaries manage expenses independently, boosting long-term value creation.For Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) , the cost of sales and services is an important driver determining profitability, operational efficiency and long-term growth. Being a holding company, it owns subsid ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Zebra Technologies reported Q3 2025 sales of $1.3 billion, a 5% increase year-on-year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 21.6%, reflecting a 20 basis point improvement, and non-GAAP diluted earnings per share of $3.88, which is 11% higher than the previous year [5][6][11] - Adjusted gross margin declined by 90 basis points to 48.2%, primarily due to higher U.S. import tariffs [9] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Enterprise Visibility and Mobility segment grew by 2%, driven by mobile computing, while the Asset Intelligence and Tracking segment saw an 11% increase, led by RFID and printing [7] - RFID has been a consistent growth area, achieving double-digit growth over the past several years [12][15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America sales grew by 6%, with double-digit growth in mobile computing and RFID, although there was weakness in Canada [8] - Asia Pacific sales increased by 23%, led by Australia, New Zealand, and India, while Latin America saw an 8% increase [9] - EMEA sales declined by 3%, with mixed performance across the region [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Zebra Technologies is focused on digitizing and automating workflows, with a strong emphasis on AI and mobile computing solutions [12][19] - The recent acquisition of Elo Touch Solutions is expected to enhance capabilities in self-service and point of sale, increasing the addressable market [18] - The company plans to commit $500 million to share repurchases over the next 12 months to drive long-term shareholder value [6] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that customers are navigating an uncertain macro environment, leading to uneven demand across geographies and vertical markets [6][36] - The company anticipates sales growth of 8% to 11% in Q4, with adjusted EBITDA margin expected to be around 22% [11] - Management expressed confidence in sustainable long-term growth driven by trends such as labor constraints and advancements in AI [19] Other Important Information - Zebra Technologies has successfully mitigated the impact of tariffs, expecting a $24 million gross profit impact for the full year 2025, with improvements in Q4 [10] - The company is transitioning to report under two new segments: Connected Frontline and Asset Visibility and Automation [7] Q&A Session Summary Question: Demand trends and Q4 guidance - Management indicated that Q3 demand was strong, but Q4 guidance implies a deceleration in organic growth due to tough comparisons and timing of orders [24][25] Question: EVM segment growth - The EVM segment saw strong growth in mobile computing but faced challenges in data capture due to difficult comparisons [26] Question: 2026 outlook and demand characterization - Management noted cautious customer sentiment and uneven demand across verticals, but expressed confidence in long-term growth opportunities [35] Question: AI features and growth catalysts - AI features are expected to drive hardware upgrades and software opportunities, with first revenues anticipated in 2026 [41] Question: Large project funnel and customer conversations - Demand trajectory remains consistent, with customers maintaining capital spending but cautious about accelerating future projects [43] Question: Elo Touch Solutions contribution - Elo is expected to contribute approximately $100 million in Q4, aligning with previous guidance [52][68] Question: Pricing actions related to tariffs - Pricing actions have not significantly impacted demand, with an expected annual benefit of around $60 million from these actions [71] Question: OBBBA tax impact - The new tax bill is expected to reduce cash taxes by $50 million to $60 million this year, with a modest impact on the overall tax rate [72][74]

Economic Indicators - The October preliminary manufacturing PMI came in at 52.2, slightly above the expected 52 and marking the best performance since August of this year [1] - The services PMI reported at 55.2, significantly higher than the expected 53.5 and also up from the previous month's 54.2, representing the best reading since July when it was 55.7 [2] - The composite PMI reached 54.8, exceeding the September final read of 53.9 and noted as the best since July of 2025 [3] Inflation and Interest Rates - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) was cooler than expected but still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with the 10-year yield settling at 4% and the 2-year yield at 3.48% [3][4] - Yields have increased over the week, indicating a potential shift in market expectations regarding interest rates [4]

Core Insights - Berkshire Hathaway Inc. has announced a definitive agreement to acquire Occidental's chemical business, OxyChem, for an all-cash transaction value of $9.7 billion, expected to conclude in Q4 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition involves OxyChem, which manufactures essential commodity chemicals used in water treatment, pharmaceuticals, healthcare, and both commercial and residential development [2]. - OxyChem will become an operating subsidiary within Berkshire Hathaway, enhancing its portfolio of diverse businesses [3]. Group 2: Company Overview - Berkshire Hathaway Inc. is a multinational company engaged in various sectors, including insurance and reinsurance, utilities and energy, freight rail transportation, manufacturing, services, and retailing [3].

Bank of America Institute is out with its consumer checkpoint for October. Debit and credit card spending increased by 2% year-over-year. That was actually the largest increase since December of 2024.Gains were up on a month-over-month basis as well. And joining us right now for a closer look is Liz Everett Chrisberg. She is the head of Bank of America Institute.Um Liz, this is really interesting because just this week we got NRF data that suggested the consumer actually slowed down in September. Your data ...

Economic Overview - The American economy is facing slowing growth, persistent inflation concerns, and a significant shift in societal values [2] - The U.S. services sector experienced a notable slowdown in September 2025, with the ISM Services PMI dropping to 50.0 from 52.0 in August, indicating a halt in expansion for the first time since January 2010 [3] - The Business Activity Index fell into contraction territory at 49.9%, marking the first contraction since May 2020 [4] Labor Market and Inflation - The Employment Index in the services sector remained in contraction for the fourth consecutive month at 47.2%, indicating ongoing labor market weakness [4] - Despite slowing activity, price pressures intensified, with the Prices Index reaching 69.4% in September, remaining above 60% for ten consecutive months [4] - Economists warn of a potential "stagflation-lite" scenario due to stagnant growth and elevated inflation [4][6] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve has initiated interest rate cuts, reducing rates by 25 basis points in September 2025 to a range of 4.00%-4.25% [5] - Further rate cuts are anticipated, with projections suggesting a decline to 3.5%-3.75% by year-end [5] Societal Trends - A Gallup poll indicates that the perceived importance of a college education among Americans has dropped to a 15-year low, with only 35% considering it "very important" in 2025, down from 75% in 2010 [7] - The decline in perceived importance spans all major demographic groups, with the percentage of Americans viewing college as "not too important" more than doubling since 2019 [8][9] Political Context - Vice President Kamala Harris's claim regarding the 2024 presidential election being the "closest of the 21st century" is challenged by data, as the 2000 election had a narrower popular vote margin [10][11]