Well, let's stay on the market, bring in unlimited CEO and CIO Bob Elliot, the gold bug I mentioned before, but let's start with the Fed and what's going on there. You think Powell's caving. >> Well, I I think basically when you look at the change in his statement at Jackson Hole versus where he was just a few weeks before in the presser, it seems like there was a pretty material shift in the positioning uh particularly getting to a a focus on the labor market.I don't know how many times in the last presser ...

US consumer spending rose in July by the most in four months, indicating resilient demand in the face of stubborn inflation https://t.co/EKfOeVJiTD ...

Federal Reserve Policy - The market sell-off coincides with rising risk of no rate cut [1] - Attention is focused on the labor market as a key factor influencing the Fed's decisions, despite earlier FOMC minutes emphasizing inflation [2][3][5] - A 50 basis points rate cut is unlikely, with the probability of a 25 basis points cut decreasing to 77% from nearly 100% [4] - The Fed previously cut rates aggressively based on perceived labor market weakness [6] Labor Market - A weak July labor market report could trigger the Fed to act, even without inflation reaching the target [3] - The Fed's dual mandate focuses on maintaining stable prices and full employment [7] Tariffs and Consumer Spending - Retailers report mixed impacts from tariffs, with some initially absorbing costs but later changing their approach [9][10] - The impact of tariffs is difficult to assess due to ongoing announcements, delays, and rate adjustments [10] - Inflation data and company reports show a bifurcated impact, with some companies benefiting from front-run ordering and inventory building [11]

Economic Slowdown - Economic output showed a marked slowdown [1] - Consumer spending experienced a marked slowdown [1] - Jobs report indicated jarringly weak performance [1] Uncertainty - Future economic direction remains unclear [1]

Economic Slowdown & Job Market - US economy's job growth has slowed, with an average of 85,000 jobs added per month this year, compared to 168,000 jobs per month last year [2] - The report indicates deepening cracks in the US economy, with businesses putting expansion plans on hold due to economic uncertainty [4] - Potential US economic growth has shifted down due to changes in the labor force [9] Impact of Tariffs & Trade Policies - Tariffs are slowing job growth and economic growth [3] - Tariffs are expected to increase prices over time, impacting consumers [22] - Deportation policies are having an effect on the labor markets [5] - Tariffs on products from countries like Canada (originally 25% to 35%) and Switzerland (39%) could impact various sectors, including lumber, cars, and medicines [18][19] - Tariffs on Brazilian products, such as beef (50%), could be felt by consumers [21] Inflation & Consumer Spending - There is a possibility of stagflation, where growth slows (currently at about 12% to 2% annual rate) and inflation picks up closer to 3% rather than 2% [6] - Consumer spending growth is half of what it was a year ago, indicating concern among American consumers [16] - Tariffs are raising costs on everyday products, impacting back-to-school, Thanksgiving, and Christmas shopping [12] White House Perspective - The White House is nervous about the economic situation and is preaching patience [17] - The current economy is producing half as many new jobs as the "Biden economy" did in 2024 [14]

Consumer Spending - Consumer spending had been very strong but may finally be slowing down [2] - Credit card companies indicate consumer spending is at a healthy level, though not growing rapidly [2] - GDP data aligns with expectations of a consumer spending slowdown, but interpretation is difficult due to swings in net exports [4] - The industry is closely watching consumer spending, along with the labor market and inflation [5] Labor Market - Private sector job creation has decreased, potentially close to zero based on QCEW adjustment [7] - The unemployment rate remains low, indicating a balance between slowing demand and supply of workers [7] - Immigration policy has slowed the flow into the labor force [8] - Wages are gradually cooling, and vacancies to unemployment ratios have been stable [9] - The labor market is solid but faces downside risks due to declining demand and supply [9] Delinquencies - Bank earnings calls indicate good credit performance [3] - High-end delinquencies are noted, but their significance is unclear [3]

Economic Overview - The economy presents a strong headline snapshot, but closer inspection reveals concerning underlying data [1][2] - GDP reading shows 3%, largely a reversal from the first quarter [1] - The economy is basically at full employment, satisfying one of the Fed's dual mandates [1] Consumer Spending & Investment - Consumer spending is described as "okay" rather than strong [1] - Investment number was down 15% [1] - Consumer-driven companies are not having robust quarters, indicating consumers are feeling the pinch [9] Labor Market - Jolt data indicates a loss of 280,000 jobs in the system [1] - There were 260,000 less hires last month [1] - 150,000 less people quit their jobs, suggesting a less optimistic view of the economy [1] Inflation & Pricing - PCE and CPI numbers were warm, slightly higher than expected, but within an acceptable range [1] - Import numbers offset each other, from -4.7% to +5% [1] - Costs will ultimately be passed down to the consumer, as companies will not decrease their profit margins [4][5] Company Performance Indicators - UPS is a good indicator of e-commerce activity and last-mile delivery performance [8][11] - Starbucks numbers reflect consumer discretionary spending [8] - Whirlpool numbers indicate consumer willingness to upgrade appliances [9]

Visa posted quarterly earnings that topped analysts' expectations as its CEO said consumer spending "remains resilient." https://t.co/FIBpDqQ9oC ...

So we have a Fed meeting and then we have a jobs report. Let's start with the Fed meeting. The decision itself, not expecting too many fireworks there.But as always, there's a lot to talk about in that press conference, Julia. Absolutely. There's a lot going on.Of course, Chair Powell will put on his best poker face and reassuring voice and tone, which he's very, very good at, and say that, look, that things are there's a lot of disruption going on so far. You know, you've got a little bit of creeping highe ...

Economic Outlook - Consumer spending, adjusted for inflation, has been flat from December to May, showing a slight negative trend of -0.21% [3] - The American consumer has been a key driver of GDP, accounting for 70% [4] - The flatness in consumer spending could be due to consumers frontloading imports in anticipation of tariffs [4] Fiscal Policy & Debt Management - The Treasury plans to update on how it intends to finance the nation's debt [5] - The current administration criticized the prior administration for timing the issuance of debt in the bond market [6] - The federal debt has significantly increased due to the current budget bill [7] - An increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio by one point tends to add approximately two basis points to the interest rate [8] Impact of AI - There's hope that AI will generate enough productivity growth to offset some of the financial pressures [9][10] - Historically, technological changes have not had the dramatic productivity-enhancing effects that are being claimed for AI [11] - Relying on AI to solve federal budgeting issues is considered reckless [11]