Core Viewpoint - The article forecasts that China's economy will face a dual contraction in supply and demand in 2025, with demand contraction expected to be greater than supply contraction, leading to overall economic performance remaining below potential levels [2][4][34]. Economic Review of 2024 - China's GDP growth for 2024 is projected at 5.0%, successfully meeting the annual target, but showing a decline from 2023 [5][4]. - The total GDP for 2024 is estimated at 13,490.84 billion RMB, with quarterly growth rates fluctuating throughout the year [5]. - Effective demand remains insufficient, significantly impacting GDP growth, with consumption and investment both showing signs of weakness [5][9]. Supply Side Analysis - Industrial output in 2024 is expected to grow by 5.8%, indicating a recovery in the industrial economy, with variations across different types of enterprises and regions [6][7]. - High-tech industries are identified as key growth points for future industrial development [7]. Demand Side Analysis - Social retail sales are projected to grow by 3.5% in 2024, reflecting a decline in consumer spending compared to previous years [8]. - Fixed asset investment is expected to increase by 3.2%, but with a downward trend throughout the year, particularly in real estate, which is projected to decline by 10.6% [9][10]. Price Trends - The inflation rate is expected to remain low, with CPI growth at 0.2% and PPI at -2.2%, indicating ongoing demand insufficiency [10][11]. Monetary and Financial Conditions - New RMB loans are projected to decrease significantly, with a total of 18.09 trillion RMB in new loans, reflecting a 20.46% decline from 2023 [12][13]. - M2 growth is expected at 7.3%, indicating a stable but low level of liquidity in the market [13]. Factors Influencing 2025 Economic Outlook - Population decline and aging are expected to exacerbate labor shortages and economic growth challenges [15]. - Weak market expectations and ongoing geopolitical risks, particularly in U.S.-China relations, are anticipated to hinder economic recovery [16][20][22]. Natural Economic Trends for 2025 - Consumption is expected to show a slight increase, driven by policy support and consumer demand for upgrades [23]. - Investment growth is projected to stabilize, influenced by prior policy effects and ongoing structural adjustments [25]. - Export and import totals are expected to rise, although geopolitical tensions may pose challenges [26]. Supply Side Trends - The potential growth rate is likely to decline due to demographic changes, technological restrictions, and fluctuating energy prices [27]. - Labor force participation is expected to decrease, further impacting economic output [28]. Summary of Economic Challenges - The economy is projected to face dual contractions in supply and demand, with GDP growth potentially declining compared to 2024 [34]. - Key risks include real estate market instability, local government debt issues, and international geopolitical tensions [35][36][40]. Policy Outlook for 2025 - The GDP growth target is set around 5.0%, with CPI growth aimed at approximately 3% [42][43]. - Employment pressures are expected to increase, with a target of over 12 million new urban jobs [44]. - A combination of demand and supply management policies will be implemented to stimulate economic growth [46].

刘伟等：2025年中国经济形势展望与政策预期 热点聚焦 内容摘要： 2024年中国GDP同比增长5.0%，经济运行"总体平稳、稳中有进"，顺利 完成年初制定的5%左右增速目标。展望2025年，全国人口减少、市场预期偏弱、支 柱产业调整、地缘政治风险、能源格局变动等国内外因素仍将影响中国经济发展。中 国经济自然走势将是供给、需求双收缩的格局，且需求收缩大于供给，整体依然低于 潜在水平。房地产风险、地方债务风险、汇率及货币风险、贸易摩擦风险等将成为未 来中国经济发展的潜在风险点。鉴于此，2025年的政策目标仍需以需求端作为主要发 力点，同时，对供给端的稳定运行和市场环境的持续改善提供必要的支持，宏观调控 政策组合应该以需求、供给双扩张为主，以市场环境管理为辅。 全文字数 | 约13000字 2024年是实现"十四五"规划目标任务的关键一年，在以习近平同志为核心的党中央团结带领下， 沉着应变，综合施策，我国经济运行总体平稳，稳中有进。数据显示，2024年我国GDP同比增长 5.0%，顺利完成年初制定的增速目标。 展望2025年，中国宏观经济运行的自然走势将是供给、需求双 收缩的格局，且需求收缩大于供给，低于潜在水平 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that maintaining stable, healthy, and sustainable development of China-U.S. relations aligns with the common interests of both nations and the expectations of the international community [2] Group 2 - China welcomes more U.S. congressional members and various individuals to visit China to enhance their objective understanding of the country, which can contribute to the stable and healthy development of China-U.S. relations [2]

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In February 2025, new RMB loans increased by 1.01 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 440 billion yuan, resulting in a stock growth rate of 7.3%[1] - The social financing scale increased by 2.23 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 737.4 billion yuan, and a month-end growth rate of 8.2%[4] - Government bonds contributed significantly to the financing scale, with an increase of 1.6967 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.0956 trillion yuan[5] Group 2: Loan Structure Analysis - Resident loans showed resilience, with a year-on-year increase of 201.6 billion yuan, while corporate loans decreased by 530 billion yuan year-on-year[2] - Corporate loans increased by 1.04 trillion yuan, but this was a year-on-year decrease of 530 billion yuan, with short-term loans increasing by 330 billion yuan[2] - Non-bank loans increased by 284.4 billion yuan, but this also reflected a year-on-year decrease of 120.1 billion yuan, continuing a downward trend[3] Group 3: Monetary Policy Outlook - The central bank is expected to maintain a loose monetary policy throughout 2025, with an anticipated reduction of 100 basis points in reserve requirement ratios and a 30 basis points cut in interest rates[10] - If US-China tensions escalate, monetary policy may shift towards further easing, while caution is advised regarding potential volatility in the bond market[10] - The M2 growth rate was 7% at the end of February, with a significant contribution from fiscal deposits, indicating a potential liquidity issue[7]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes China's role in providing stability and certainty in a world characterized by uncertainty, highlighting the importance of global South cooperation and China's contributions to global governance [2][5][14]. Group 1: Global South and China's Role - The global South now accounts for over 40% of the world's economic output and contributes 80% to global economic growth, with the BRICS group becoming a key player in this context [2][5]. - China is seen as a responsible major power, actively participating in global governance and promoting initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative to foster international cooperation [5][14]. - The article discusses the increasing unity among global South countries, with over 100 nations supporting major global initiatives, indicating a shift in international dynamics [5][14]. Group 2: China's Economic and Technological Contributions - China's robust market and domestic demand, along with its strong industrial and innovative capabilities, are highlighted as key factors for its economic confidence and future growth [3][6]. - The article notes that China's technological advancements, particularly in areas like 5G and quantum computing, are crucial for global progress and that China is willing to share its innovations with other developing nations [3][11]. - China's commitment to multilateralism and its expanding "circle of friends" are expected to bring positive energy to the world, promoting collaborative solutions to global challenges [6][14]. Group 3: Global Governance and Stability - The article underscores the significance of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in maintaining stability in the Eurasian region, with China playing a pivotal role in its development [9][14]. - It mentions that the upcoming year 2025 is significant for both China and the world, marking important anniversaries and events that will shape future international relations [8][9]. - The article concludes that the global South's increasing influence is essential for reshaping international order and ensuring a more equitable global governance system [15].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes China's stance on Taiwan, asserting that Taiwan has never been a separate country and will not become one in the future, reinforcing China's territorial integrity and sovereignty [2][4]. Summary by Sections Taiwan Issue - Wang Yi stated that Taiwan is an inseparable part of China, a fact rooted in history, and this year marks the 80th anniversary of Taiwan's return to China [4]. - The UN Resolution 2758, passed in 1971, restored the legitimate rights of the People's Republic of China in the UN and expelled representatives of Taiwan, eliminating any possibility of "two Chinas" or "one China, one Taiwan" [4]. - Promoting "Taiwan independence" is viewed as a threat to national unity and stability in the Taiwan Strait [5]. China-Japan Relations - Wang Yi highlighted that the one-China principle is the political foundation of China-Japan relations, urging Japan to refrain from using Taiwan as a pretext for conflict [6]. China-US Relations - Mutual respect is deemed essential for China-US relations, with Wang Yi criticizing the US for attempting to suppress China while seeking a good relationship [7]. - He pointed out that the US should reflect on the outcomes of its trade wars and tariffs, emphasizing that cooperation would lead to mutual benefits [8]. China-Russia Relations - Wang Yi affirmed the enduring friendship between China and Russia, emphasizing their commitment to strategic cooperation and mutual benefits [9]. China-Europe Relations - The article marks the 50th anniversary of China-Europe diplomatic relations, highlighting significant growth in trade from $2.4 billion to $780 billion and investment from nearly zero to $260 billion [10]. China-India Relations - Wang Yi noted positive developments in China-India relations over the past year, advocating for mutual support and cooperation rather than competition [11]. Ukraine Crisis - China has consistently advocated for dialogue and negotiation to resolve the Ukraine crisis, emphasizing the need for a fair and lasting peace agreement [12]. Overseas Security - Wang Yi discussed efforts to ensure the safety of Chinese citizens abroad, including the elimination of electric fraud zones near the border [13]. Technological Innovation - The article highlights China's advancements in technology, asserting that external pressures have not hindered innovation but rather spurred it [14].

Group 1 - The 14th National People's Congress (NPC) will open on March 5 and close on March 11, with a total duration of 7 days and 3 plenary sessions scheduled [1] - The spokesperson for the NPC, Lou Qinjian, has a background in various leadership roles, including serving as the Secretary of the Shaanxi and Jiangsu Provincial Committees [1] - Lou Qinjian addressed 13 questions from domestic and foreign journalists during the press conference, covering topics such as the NPC system, legislative work, high-quality economic development, China-US relations, technological self-reliance, and defense budget [1] Group 2 - The spokesperson role is a crucial channel for external understanding of the NPC, with a strict legal procedure for selection [2] - Prior spokespersons for the NPC have included notable figures such as Zeng Tao, Yao Guang, and Fu Ying, among others [2]

看法说多了，自己都信了，以至于错了还在坚持，甚至自己都知道错了，也为了面子而坚守，找各种理由说服自己继续坚持。这是在潜移默化中自己迷失 自己。 1月LPR按兵不动、符合预期，资金面有所缓和、资金价格仍不便宜，债市利率小幅上行。 周末主席同特朗普通电话，市场对中美关系的悲观预期有所缓和。早盘债市情绪偏弱，10Y国债利率小幅高开在1.65%。1月LPR报价保持不变，符合预 期。股市冲高回落，10Y国债利率小幅下行至1.64%。午后存单表现持续偏弱，利率小幅上行至1.647%。 今日全球市场的焦点无疑是"懂王登基"，从发行虚拟币"夫妻双双把韭割"，到计划上任后立即签署100项行政命令，只有你想不到，没有懂王做不到。不 过影响今日债市的核心变量并非中美关系改善的叙事，而依旧是资金面，虽较上周有所改善，但也谈不上宽松，资金价格仍然偏贵。本周三有9595亿元逆 回购到期，"救我救我"，希望央妈能包个春节红包给大家开心过年。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250120— 懂王登基，流量变现（-周末中美元首通电话-资金面偏紧=小上)】 资金面先紧后松，长债收益率小幅上行。 央行公开市场开展1230亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有 ...

我们也不要自认为聪明，凭着感觉想做个先卖后买的波段交易。想法是好的，但是如果你真这样做了，先卖出做空，欲等待调整后再上车，但是，你卖出 后的心态是会改变的，尤其是逆大势大概率踏空之后，就会在懊悔中难以再上车，于是踏空后面更大的行情。 ——笔记哥《交易》 【笔记20241217— 中美关系或是2025最大预期差（+股市弱势-资金面偏紧转松=微上)】 资金面偏紧转松，长债收益率小幅上行。 央行今日公开市场开展3554亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率为1.50%。今日1416亿元逆回购到期。净投放2138亿元。 上午资金面偏紧张，午后逐渐转松，资金利率仍偏贵。 俄罗斯国家杜马表示：支持在俄全国推广食品券制度。哎，这战打的，把"粮票"都打出来了，这是要和朝鲜并轨的节奏的啊。 今天看到特朗普表示"美中联手可以解决世界上所有问题"，新华社对此都做了报道。考虑到老特的思维更偏商人而非政客，意识形态的东西也不多，2025 年基本面的预期差没准儿真能来自于中美关系，等到明年这个时候再一看，"大力提振"的足球、消费、投资继续拉胯，而"无人看好"的出口再超预期，大 家纷纷感叹"一致预期都是错的"，这剧本如何？ 真心希望地球的各位大佬 ...

（点击下方卡片预约按钮，即可获得直播弹窗提醒哦） 更多内容就留到今天晚上，19：00分，锁定视频号直播间。 美国当地时间11月6日凌晨，共和党候选人特朗普在此次总统大选中获胜，成为美国历史上第二位非连续当选的总统。 大选期间特朗普就曾声称：有极大的信心就任。王者归来，特朗普的就任将给世界格局和中美关系带来怎样的冲击？ ...