Economic Outlook - JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon indicated that the U.S. economy is experiencing a slowdown, with uncertainty about whether it is heading towards a recession [1] - A preliminary report showed that U.S. employers added 911,000 fewer jobs in the year through March than previously reported, suggesting a weaker labor market [1][1] Market Performance - Wall Street's major indexes closed higher, with UnitedHealth Group surging over +8% after announcing that 78% of its Medicare Advantage members are expected to enroll in top-rated plans next year [2] - Atlassian Corp. climbed more than +5% after announcing plans to transition customers to its cloud platform [2] - Nebius jumped over +49% after securing a deal worth up to $19.4 billion with Microsoft for AI infrastructure [2] Corporate Developments - Oracle's stock surged over +29% in pre-market trading after projecting that booked revenue from its core cloud business would exceed half a trillion dollars [3][14] - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. reported a 34% increase in August revenue, reflecting strong global demand for advanced AI chips [15] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) is anticipated to show a +0.3% month-over-month increase and a +3.3% year-over-year increase, compared to previous figures of +0.9% month-over-month [6] - U.S. Wholesale Inventories data is expected to remain unchanged at +0.2% month-over-month [7] International Developments - China's consumer prices fell at their fastest pace in six months, with the August CPI unchanged month-over-month and down -0.4% year-over-year [11][12] - Fitch Ratings raised its 2025 growth forecast for China to 4.7%, up from 4.2% [11]

Group 1 - The dollar index (DXY) has recovered from a 1.5-month low, increasing by +0.08% due to higher T-note yields strengthening interest rate differentials and prompting short covering in the dollar [1] - Preliminary benchmark payroll revisions indicated a loss of -911,000 jobs in the US through March 2025, which is a wider loss than the expected -700,000, signaling a weaker labor market [3] - The markets are now pricing in a 10% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting on September 16-17, a significant shift from previous expectations of zero chance [4] Group 2 - The euro (EUR/USD) fell by -0.21% from a 1.5-month high due to the dollar's rebound, compounded by a significant decline in French manufacturing production [5] - French manufacturing production for July decreased by -1.7% month-over-month, which was worse than the expected decline of -1.2% and marked the largest drop in 14 months [6]

Economic Overview - The latest jobs report indicated that 22,000 jobs were added in the US in August, with the unemployment rate slightly increasing to 4.3% [2][3] - The labor force has decreased by 400,000 since April, contributing to the relatively low unemployment rate despite stagnant job growth [5][6] - The job market is described as "frozen," with businesses hesitant to hire or lay off employees due to uncertainty, particularly related to tariffs [1][4] Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - There is a strong expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with discussions around a potential double 50 basis point cut in September [6][9] - The market's reaction to the jobs report suggests that investors are not optimistic about the current economic conditions, despite the potential for lower interest rates [6][9] - The Fed's reluctance to lower rates too quickly is highlighted, as they aim to avoid overreacting to short-term data [9][11] Artificial Intelligence Sector - AI is seen as a significant driver of market performance, with companies like OpenAI and Anthropic making headlines for their substantial valuations and revenue growth [17][19] - Anthropic reported a run rate of $5 billion in annualized revenue, reflecting a fivefold increase since the beginning of the year [19] - Concerns about the sustainability of high valuations in the AI sector are raised, particularly regarding competition and the potential for commoditization [21][23] Company-Specific Insights - Alphabet is positioned strongly in the AI market, benefiting from its core advertising business, which supports its AI initiatives [22][23] - Lululemon faces challenges with product relevance and competition, leading to concerns about its future growth potential [27][28] - Nike is attempting to regain its brand appeal and relevance in a competitive market, with recent partnerships indicating a strategic shift [32][33] Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - The discussion around consumer preferences indicates a shift, with brands like On Holding gaining traction while legacy brands like Lululemon and Nike struggle [34][35] - The impact of direct-to-consumer models is emphasized, as new brands can quickly rise in popularity without extensive marketing budgets [36][37] - The retail landscape is evolving, with companies like Target facing challenges but also opportunities for restructuring and differentiation [52][53] IPO and Valuation Concerns - CoreWeave's stock has seen significant volatility, reflecting broader market trends and investor sentiment towards tech IPOs [40][42] - Figma's recent IPO performance illustrates the challenges of maintaining high valuations post-IPO, with its stock price dropping significantly from initial highs [44][46] - The competitive landscape for Figma is complicated by its positioning between established players like Adobe and emerging free alternatives [46][47] Elon Musk and Tesla - Elon Musk's potential trillion-dollar pay package is framed as a strategic move to keep him motivated, with performance milestones tied to Tesla's growth [49][50] - The ambitious targets set for Musk's compensation package reflect confidence in Tesla's future market cap and operational success [49][50]

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Economic Overview - The U.S. nonfarm payroll report for August showed only 22,000 jobs added, significantly below the expected 75,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest since late 2021 [1][2] - The June jobs data was revised down by 27,000 jobs, resulting in a net loss of 13,000 jobs, marking the first contraction since the pandemic [2][3] - The weak job creation and rising unemployment indicate a sharper economic slowdown than anticipated, despite climbing inflation [3] Market Reactions - Initially, Wall Street reacted positively to the jobs data, speculating that it would lead to a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [2][4] - However, as traders reassessed the implications of the jobs data, the optimism faded, leading to a focus on the broader economic slowdown [3] Federal Reserve Speculation - Traders are now seeing a 14% chance of a 50-basis-point rate cut in September, up from zero the day before the jobs report [4] - It is widely expected that the Fed will cut rates by a quarter point at its next meeting on September 17, moving from the current 4.25% to 4.50% range [5] Gold Market Insights - Following the disappointing jobs numbers, gold prices surged, breaking through previous resistance levels, with a noted increase of about 1% on the day of the report [5][20] - Gold is forming a bullish "ascending triangle" technical pattern, suggesting potential for continued upward movement [8][20] - Top-tier gold miners, such as Westgold Resources, have seen significant gains, with Westgold up 45% over the last month, while gold itself has only climbed 5% [17] Investment Strategy - The current economic conditions and gold's performance suggest it may serve as a good hedge for portfolios if the stock market declines [21] - There is an emphasis on the potential of overlooked gold stocks to deliver substantial returns, especially in a challenging investment environment [21][22] - The company has developed a stock-picking algorithm called Apogee, which aims to identify high-potential stocks based on historical data and market trends [23][26]

Market Overview - The month of September historically begins with bearish trends, marked by a broad-market selloff due to tariff updates, rising bond yields, and profit-taking in the tech sector [1] - Despite the initial selloff, the S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite Index reached record highs by the end of the week, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average faced its second consecutive weekly loss [1] Employment Data - Weak employment data was a focal point for investors, influencing perceptions of the labor market and the potential for a rate cut in September [2] - The Job Openings and Labor Turnover report indicated approximately 7.18 million job listings in July, falling short of expectations and marking only the second reading below 7.2 million since 2020 [2] - The ADP private payrolls report also underperformed expectations, and the August jobs report revealed only 22,000 jobs added, significantly below the anticipated 75,000 [2] Individual Company Movements - Alphabet (GOOGL) reached record highs, positively impacting the tech sector after avoiding a breakup in the Department of Justice's antitrust case [3] - Apple (AAPL) also benefited from Alphabet's performance amid its own antitrust lawsuit [3] - PepsiCo (PEP) saw its stock rise following news of activist investor Elliott Investment Management acquiring a $4 billion stake, citing a "rare" and "historic" turnaround opportunity [3] - Several companies reported earnings, including Nio (NIO), Dollar Tree (DLTR), Macy's (M), Zscaler (ZS), Salesforce (CRM), American Eagle (AEO), Lululemon (LULU), and Broadcom (AVGO) [3] Future Outlook - Upcoming inflation data will be crucial for market participants, and 35 ETFs are highlighted for monitoring following the recent surge in the S&P 500 [4] - The start of the football season is noted as a time for strategic approaches applicable to both fantasy football and options trading [4]

Core Insights - September is typically a weak month for the stock market, but it presents opportunities for investors willing to take on risk, particularly in Acadian Asset Management and AllianceBernstein, which have recently dipped below their 52-week highs [1][2] Financial Performance - Acadian Asset Management reported a record AUM of $151.1 billion, while AllianceBernstein reached an all-time high AUM of $829 billion, driven by strong global equity inflows [5] - Acadian's EPS estimates for fiscal years 2025 and 2026 have increased by 17% and 26%, respectively, with an expected annual earnings surge of 35% this year and a projected 21% increase in FY26 to $4.50 per share [6][7] - AllianceBernstein's FY25 EPS estimates have risen by 4% in the last two months, with FY26 revisions up by 7%, forecasting a 2% expansion in FY25 and an 11% increase next year to $3.69 per share [7] Valuation Metrics - Both Acadian and AllianceBernstein are trading at forward P/E multiples of 11X, significantly lower than the broader Zacks finance sector's 19X and the S&P 500's 24X, indicating attractive valuation [8] Investment Outlook - Acadian Asset Management holds a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) and is expected to rebound from its 52-week high of $51 per share, while AllianceBernstein has a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) and is projected to return to its one-year peak of $43 per share, offering a 7.71% annual dividend yield [11]

Economic Indicators - The jobs data is anticipated to influence Federal Reserve's decision on rate cuts, with a 97% chance of a cut in September according to the FedWatch tool [3][4] - Inflation remains persistent, with PCE showing an annual growth of 2.9%, and CPI expected to reflect similar trends [5][6] Precious Metals Market - Gold prices are reaching record highs, while silver is also experiencing significant gains, indicating a strong interest in precious metals as an inflation hedge [6][7] Retail Sector Performance - Macy's reported a 21% increase in stock price post-earnings, reflecting signs of recovery despite facing tariff headwinds [11] - Dollar Tree's stock fell by 9% after earnings due to significant tariff impacts affecting low-end consumer spending [13][14] - American Eagle's stock surged by 26% following a successful marketing campaign, showcasing the potential for political spotlight to drive sales [15][16] Technology Sector Insights - Google’s stock rose by 9% after avoiding a forced sale of its Chrome browser amid antitrust scrutiny, indicating a favorable regulatory environment for big tech [20][22] - Salesforce's stock declined by 7% despite beating earnings expectations, raising questions about the effectiveness of AI integration into its business model [24][26] - Alibaba reported a 26% growth in its cloud business driven by AI, contrasting with Salesforce's struggles, highlighting the varying impacts of AI across companies [26] Upcoming Earnings and Market Trends - Adobe's upcoming earnings report is expected to reveal how effectively its AI investments are translating into revenue, similar to the scrutiny faced by Salesforce [27][28] - Broadcom's results will provide insights into the tech infrastructure supporting AI development, relevant for companies like Salesforce and Adobe [28][29]

The August jobs report was released moments ago, showing that the US added just 22,000 jobs last month, much much less than the 75,000 that economists expected. The unemployment rate also saw a slight increase to 4.3%. This, of course, the first jobs report released since President Trump fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics last month after that report showed not just a weak level of job creation, but also a dramatic reductions in previous month's totals.There's no way to sugarcoat this. This jo ...

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Traders now betting on a possible 50 bps rate cut at the next FOMC meeting in 12 days. 👀 ...