Economic Indicators - December CPI is expected to remain unchanged from November at +2.7% year-over-year, while December core CPI is anticipated to rise to +2.7% from +2.6% in November [1] - October new home sales are projected to decline by -10.6% month-over-month to 715,000 [1] - November PPI final demand is expected to increase by +2.7% year-over-year, with core PPI also expected to climb by +2.7% [1] - November retail sales are anticipated to increase by +0.5% month-over-month, and +0.4% month-over-month excluding autos [1] - December existing home sales are expected to rise by +2.2% month-over-month to 4.22 million [1] - Weekly initial unemployment claims are expected to increase by +7,000 to 215,000 [1] - January Empire manufacturing survey is expected to rise by +4.9 to 1.0 [1] - December manufacturing production is expected to fall by -0.1% month-over-month [1] - January NAHB housing market index is expected to increase by +1 to 40 [1] Federal Reserve and Market Reactions - Fed Chair Powell stated that the Federal Reserve received grand jury subpoenas from the Justice Department, which could lead to a criminal indictment related to his June testimony [2] - Concerns about Fed independence have increased due to the Trump administration's criticism, leading to a "Sell America" sentiment in US asset markets [3] - The markets are currently discounting a 5% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting [4] Stock Market Movements - Stock indexes opened lower but rose in the afternoon, with the S&P 500 up +0.28%, Dow Jones up +0.15%, and Nasdaq 100 up +0.55% [3] - Credit card companies and bank stocks are declining, with Synchrony Financial down more than -7%, Capital One down more than -6%, and American Express down more than -4% following President Trump's comments on interest rate caps [9] - Mining stocks are rising as gold and silver prices reach new all-time highs, with Hecla Mining up more than +8% and Coeur Mining up more than +6% [9] Company-Specific Updates - Alnylam Pharmaceuticals reported preliminary Q4 sales of Amvuttra at $827 million, below the consensus of $848.5 million, leading to a decline of more than -10% in its stock [9] - Henry Schein is down more than -2% after announcing a new CEO [10] - UnitedHealth Group is down more than -1% following a Senate committee investigation into its practices [11] - Dexcom reported Q3 preliminary revenue of $1.26 billion, exceeding the consensus of $1.24 billion, leading to a stock increase of more than +5% [12] - Walmart is up more than +2% as it will replace AstraZeneca in the Nasdaq 100 Index starting January 20 [13]

The S&P 500 edged down by 0.1% from its all-time high as U.S. stocks drifted through mixed morning trading, while prices for gold and other investments that tend to do well when investors are nervous rose. The value of the U.S. dollar also dipped against the euro and other currencies amid concerns that the Fed may have less independence in setting The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 179 points, or 0.4%, as of 10 a.m. Eastern time, and the Nasdaq composite was nearly unchanged.Some of the market's sha ...

If your goal is to become financially independent at a young age, this is a very controversial thing to say, you probably don't want to go buy a house because people typically buy a house they can't possibly afford. The bank wants you to do that cuz that's how they make the most money. So, you're putting your capital into that house and now it's not going to be earning thing. It's going to be sitting idally.And people say, "Well, you know, I can buy this house cuz my mortgage is the same as my rent." Well, ...

Uh oh, he best start minding the step children or his ass is grass. Or cut rates to 0% immediately.The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly):Fed Powell’s statement https://t.co/ydHTzLezL1 ...

Group 1: Earnings Reports - Major financial institutions including JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs are set to report earnings, marking the start of the earnings season for Q4 2025 [1][3] - JPMorgan Chase, the largest U.S. bank, will kick off the earnings season with its year-end report, having recently announced it will become the next issuer of the Apple Card [3] - Wells Fargo anticipates slower growth in net interest income for the year, while BNY Mellon and Goldman Sachs are also scheduled to report [4] Group 2: Economic Indicators - December's Consumer Price Index is expected to show inflation pressures slowing to 2.7%, with additional reports on wholesale inflation from October and November to provide further insights [6] - Retail sales data for November will offer insights into consumer activity during the holiday shopping season, which is crucial for the U.S. economy [8] - Reports on new and existing home sales are anticipated, as home sales have stalled due to ongoing affordability challenges [8] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - Taiwan Semiconductor's earnings will be closely watched to assess the chipmakers' ability to sustain revenue growth amid rising demand for AI chips [5] - Delta Air Lines' earnings will provide insights into the travel sector's recovery following disruptions caused by last year's government shutdown [5]

Greetings everyone and happy new year. Well, it was an eventful turn of the year. the government uh shutdown did end.And uh here we are. We're catching up with uh economic statistics. Uh I'm going to be doing something a little different this time instead of the normal drill.uh because uh I'd like to give you a preview of a letter that we're going to be putting out uh uh at least show you some of the charts uh and um really go through the line of thinking um that we have been processing over the last year a ...

Economic Indicators - US housing starts unexpectedly fell by 4.6% month-over-month to a 5.5-year low of 1.246 million, weaker than expectations of 1.330 million [1] - US building permits fell by 0.2% to 1.412 million, which was stronger than expectations of 1.350 million [1] - US nonfarm payrolls rose by 50,000 in December, weaker than expectations of 70,000, while November's payrolls were revised lower to 56,000 from 64,000 [2] - The December unemployment rate fell by 0.1% to 4.4%, better than expectations of 4.5% [2] Stock Market Performance - The S&P 500 Index closed up by 0.65%, reaching a new all-time high, supported by a resilient US labor market [5][6] - Chipmakers and data storage companies saw significant gains, with Sandisk closing up more than 12% and Intel up more than 10% [15] - Home builders and suppliers rallied after President Trump announced plans for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion in mortgage bonds, with Builders FirstSource closing up more than 12% [16] - Power producers also experienced gains, with Vistra closing up more than 10% following electricity deals with Meta Platforms [17] Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations - The University of Michigan's US January consumer sentiment index rose by 1.1 to 54.0, stronger than expectations of 53.5 [6] - January 1-year inflation expectations remained unchanged at 4.2%, while 5-10 year inflation expectations rose to 3.4% from 3.2% in December [7] Interest Rates and Federal Reserve Commentary - The 10-year T-note yield rose to a 4-week high of 4.203%, influenced by rising inflation expectations and hawkish comments from Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic [10][11] - The markets are currently discounting a 5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting [8] International Market Trends - European stock markets, including the Euro Stoxx 50, reached new record highs, with a 1.58% increase [9] - China's Shanghai Composite climbed to a 10.5-year high, closing up by 0.92% [9]

US stocks rose to all-time highs on Friday as investors assessed the December jobs report to end a jam-packed first full trading week of 2026. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) gained 0.6%, notching a new record. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rose around 0.5% to also post an all-time high close. The Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) jumped 0.8%, marking a winning week for all three major averages. Markets on Friday were focused on two potential catalysts: the December jobs report and the chance of a decision from th ...

Labor Market Overview - The US labor market added 50,000 jobs in December, marking the weakest year of growth since the pandemic, falling short of the expected 73,000 jobs [1] - Job additions for October and November were revised downwards, with a total of 76,000 fewer jobs added during those months [2] - The unemployment rate decreased from a four-year high of 4.6% in November to 4.4% in December [2] Economic Context - The labor market is described as being in a "no hire, no fire" phase, indicating subdued job growth despite ongoing employment [4] - Layoffs in December were nearly half of those recorded in November, suggesting a stabilization in job security [4] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve is expected to consider the latest labor data in their upcoming policy meeting at the end of January, with current interest rates between 3.5% and 3.75% [5] - There is a likelihood of a pause in interest rate cuts, as indicated by the division among Fed members during their December meeting [6] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell expressed caution, hoping for stabilization in the labor market and a cooling of inflation, which rose 2.7% in November [7] Political and Economic Discourse - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urged the Fed to continue cutting rates to stimulate stronger economic growth [9] - There is a conflict between the Fed's cautious approach and the demands from Donald Trump and his economic advisers for lower interest rates to boost the labor market [8]

Labor Market Overview - The U.S. labor market ended 2025 with lower-than-expected job creation, adding 50,000 nonfarm payrolls in December, down from a revised 56,000 in November and below the Dow Jones estimate of 73,000 [1] - The unemployment rate decreased to 4.4%, better than the forecast of 4.5%, while a broader measure of unemployment fell to 8.4%, down 0.3 percentage points from November [2] Employment Trends - The report indicates a mixed labor market, with companies showing low hiring levels but households reporting employment gains, suggesting a cautious hiring environment [3] - For the full year, payroll gains averaged 49,000 per month, significantly lower than the 168,000 average in 2024 [4] Sector Performance - Job gains in December were led by the restaurant and bar sector, which added 27,000 jobs, followed by healthcare with 21,000 and social assistance with 17,000, while retail saw a decline of 25,000 jobs [4] Wage Growth - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.3% for December, aligning with forecasts, while the annual increase reached 3.8%, exceeding expectations by 0.2 percentage points [4] Economic Indicators - The Atlanta Fed's measure indicates a projected GDP growth of 5.4% annualized in Q4, following a 4.3% growth rate in Q3, reflecting strong consumer spending during the holiday season [6] - Online spending during the holiday season rose by 6.8% year-over-year, reaching a record $257.8 billion [6] Federal Reserve Outlook - Federal Reserve officials are closely monitoring the labor market for guidance on interest rate decisions, with expectations that the Fed will maintain current rates following recent cuts [5][7]