Economic Indicators - US housing starts unexpectedly fell by 4.6% month-over-month to a 5.5-year low of 1.246 million, weaker than expectations of 1.330 million [1] - US building permits fell by 0.2% to 1.412 million, which was stronger than expectations of 1.350 million [1] - US nonfarm payrolls rose by 50,000 in December, weaker than expectations of 70,000, while November's payrolls were revised lower to 56,000 from 64,000 [2] - The December unemployment rate fell by 0.1% to 4.4%, better than expectations of 4.5% [2] Stock Market Performance - The S&P 500 Index closed up by 0.65%, reaching a new all-time high, supported by a resilient US labor market [5][6] - Chipmakers and data storage companies saw significant gains, with Sandisk closing up more than 12% and Intel up more than 10% [15] - Home builders and suppliers rallied after President Trump announced plans for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion in mortgage bonds, with Builders FirstSource closing up more than 12% [16] - Power producers also experienced gains, with Vistra closing up more than 10% following electricity deals with Meta Platforms [17] Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations - The University of Michigan's US January consumer sentiment index rose by 1.1 to 54.0, stronger than expectations of 53.5 [6] - January 1-year inflation expectations remained unchanged at 4.2%, while 5-10 year inflation expectations rose to 3.4% from 3.2% in December [7] Interest Rates and Federal Reserve Commentary - The 10-year T-note yield rose to a 4-week high of 4.203%, influenced by rising inflation expectations and hawkish comments from Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic [10][11] - The markets are currently discounting a 5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting [8] International Market Trends - European stock markets, including the Euro Stoxx 50, reached new record highs, with a 1.58% increase [9] - China's Shanghai Composite climbed to a 10.5-year high, closing up by 0.92% [9]

US stocks rose to all-time highs on Friday as investors assessed the December jobs report to end a jam-packed first full trading week of 2026. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) gained 0.6%, notching a new record. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rose around 0.5% to also post an all-time high close. The Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) jumped 0.8%, marking a winning week for all three major averages. Markets on Friday were focused on two potential catalysts: the December jobs report and the chance of a decision from th ...

Labor Market Overview - The US labor market added 50,000 jobs in December, marking the weakest year of growth since the pandemic, falling short of the expected 73,000 jobs [1] - Job additions for October and November were revised downwards, with a total of 76,000 fewer jobs added during those months [2] - The unemployment rate decreased from a four-year high of 4.6% in November to 4.4% in December [2] Economic Context - The labor market is described as being in a "no hire, no fire" phase, indicating subdued job growth despite ongoing employment [4] - Layoffs in December were nearly half of those recorded in November, suggesting a stabilization in job security [4] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve is expected to consider the latest labor data in their upcoming policy meeting at the end of January, with current interest rates between 3.5% and 3.75% [5] - There is a likelihood of a pause in interest rate cuts, as indicated by the division among Fed members during their December meeting [6] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell expressed caution, hoping for stabilization in the labor market and a cooling of inflation, which rose 2.7% in November [7] Political and Economic Discourse - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urged the Fed to continue cutting rates to stimulate stronger economic growth [9] - There is a conflict between the Fed's cautious approach and the demands from Donald Trump and his economic advisers for lower interest rates to boost the labor market [8]

Labor Market Overview - The U.S. labor market ended 2025 with lower-than-expected job creation, adding 50,000 nonfarm payrolls in December, down from a revised 56,000 in November and below the Dow Jones estimate of 73,000 [1] - The unemployment rate decreased to 4.4%, better than the forecast of 4.5%, while a broader measure of unemployment fell to 8.4%, down 0.3 percentage points from November [2] Employment Trends - The report indicates a mixed labor market, with companies showing low hiring levels but households reporting employment gains, suggesting a cautious hiring environment [3] - For the full year, payroll gains averaged 49,000 per month, significantly lower than the 168,000 average in 2024 [4] Sector Performance - Job gains in December were led by the restaurant and bar sector, which added 27,000 jobs, followed by healthcare with 21,000 and social assistance with 17,000, while retail saw a decline of 25,000 jobs [4] Wage Growth - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.3% for December, aligning with forecasts, while the annual increase reached 3.8%, exceeding expectations by 0.2 percentage points [4] Economic Indicators - The Atlanta Fed's measure indicates a projected GDP growth of 5.4% annualized in Q4, following a 4.3% growth rate in Q3, reflecting strong consumer spending during the holiday season [6] - Online spending during the holiday season rose by 6.8% year-over-year, reaching a record $257.8 billion [6] Federal Reserve Outlook - Federal Reserve officials are closely monitoring the labor market for guidance on interest rate decisions, with expectations that the Fed will maintain current rates following recent cuts [5][7]

Core Insights - The national average rate for home equity lines of credit (HELOC) has reached a new low, with the average HELOC rate at 7.25%, down 19 basis points from the previous month, and the average home equity loan rate at 7.56%, down three basis points [2][11] Group 1: Market Trends - Homeowners have approximately $36 trillion in home equity, the highest recorded amount, which indicates a significant opportunity for lenders to offer HELOCs and home equity loans [3] - With mortgage rates remaining low, homeowners are less likely to sell their homes or refinance, making HELOCs and home equity loans attractive alternatives for accessing home equity [3] Group 2: Interest Rate Dynamics - The prime rate has decreased to 6.75% following three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025, prompting lenders to adjust their home equity product rates [7] - Lenders are offering competitive rates, such as FourLeaf Credit Union's introductory HELOC rate of 5.99% for the first 12 months on lines up to $500,000 [7] Group 3: Borrowing Considerations - Interest rates for HELOCs can vary significantly based on creditworthiness, with current rates ranging from 6% to 18%, and the national average being 7.25% [11] - It is considered a favorable time to obtain a HELOC or home equity loan due to the declining interest rates, which can be utilized for home improvements and other expenses [12] Group 4: Loan Structure and Payments - A $50,000 HELOC at a 7.50% interest rate would result in a monthly payment of approximately $313 during the 10-year draw period, but payments may increase during the repayment period due to variable rates [13]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve has cut the federal funds rate three times in 2024 and three times in 2025, leading to a decline in deposit interest rates, including money market account (MMA) rates [1] - The national average rate for MMAs is currently 0.58%, while top high-yield accounts offer rates exceeding 4% APY, significantly above the national average [2][9] Group 1: Money Market Account Rates - The importance of comparing MMA rates is emphasized, as interest rates vary widely among banks, particularly online banks and credit unions that offer competitive rates [3][4] - Online banks have lower overhead costs due to their web-based operations, allowing them to provide higher deposit rates and lower fees [4] - Credit unions, as not-for-profit entities, also offer competitive rates and fewer fees, although membership requirements may apply [5] Group 2: Benefits and Considerations of Money Market Accounts - Money market accounts are suitable for short-term savings goals, offering higher interest rates than regular savings accounts and easier access to funds compared to CDs [5][7] - These accounts are considered low-risk and are FDIC-insured up to $250,000 per depositor, per institution, making them safer than money market funds [6] - Many MMAs require a minimum balance to earn the highest advertised rate, and failure to maintain this balance may result in fees or lower rates [6] Group 3: Access and Usage of Funds - While MMAs allow for general access to funds, there may be limits on the number of transactions per month, which is a consideration for those needing frequent access [7] - MMAs are ideal for individuals looking to earn more interest than a regular savings account without locking funds in a CD, provided they can maintain the minimum balance [7][8]

Group 1: Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley's Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson presents a bullish outlook for the U.S. equity market, predicting high teens earnings growth and focusing on the consumer goods sector [1][5] - Wilson describes the market's path as "crystal clear," driven by a stabilizing Federal Reserve and legislative support that will rejuvenate the consumer sector [2][6] Group 2: Consumer Goods Sector - The consumer goods sector is identified as a top conviction pick for the year, expected to rebound after a "rolling recession" [2] - Wilson highlights favorable factors such as falling interest rates and fiscal stimulus that will unlock pent-up demand in the consumer goods sector [2][3] Group 3: Earnings and Federal Reserve Support - Wilson argues that the earnings picture is strengthening, forecasting earnings growth in the "high teens" as the market rally expands beyond the tech sector [5] - A key factor in this optimism is the Federal Reserve's shift in policy, including asset purchases to stabilize funding markets, which Wilson views as a significant support for investors [6] Group 4: Market Performance - The Dow Jones U.S. Consumer Goods Index has shown a performance of 9.62% over the last six months, while year-to-date performance is at -1.40% [4] - The iShares US Consumer Staples ETF has a one-year performance of 5.25%, indicating some resilience in the consumer staples segment [4] Group 5: General Market Trends - Year-to-date, the S&P 500 index is up 0.63%, and the Dow Jones is up 2.41%, while the Nasdaq 100 is down by 0.07% [9] - The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF closed lower recently, with SPY down 0.01% and QQQ down 0.60% [10]

Economic Indicators - US nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by +70,000 in December, with the unemployment rate projected to decrease by -0.1% to 4.5% [1] - Average hourly earnings for December are anticipated to rise by 0.3% month-over-month and 3.6% year-over-year [1] - October housing starts are expected to increase by 1.8% month-over-month to 1.33 million, while building permits are projected to rise by 1.5% month-over-month to 1.35 million [1] Trade and Productivity - The US trade deficit unexpectedly shrank to -$29.4 billion in October, significantly better than the expected widening to -$58.7 billion, marking the smallest deficit in 16 years [2] - Q3 nonfarm productivity rose by +4.9%, close to expectations of +5.0%, representing the largest increase in two years [2] - Q3 unit labor costs fell by -1.9%, exceeding expectations of a -0.1% decline [2] Stock Market Performance - The S&P 500 Index is up +0.02%, while the Dow Jones is up +0.45%, and the Nasdaq 100 is down -0.77% [6] - Defense stocks are experiencing a rally following President Trump's announcement of plans to increase military spending to $1.5 trillion [5][14] - Chipmakers and data storage companies are underperforming, with significant declines in stocks like Sandisk and Western Digital [12][13] Interest Rates and Bonds - The 10-year T-note yield has risen by +3 basis points to 4.18%, influenced by positive labor market indicators [4][8] - European government bond yields are also increasing, with the 10-year German bund yield up +6.2 basis points to 2.874% [9] Company-Specific Movements - Costco Wholesale reported December comparable sales ex-gas rose by +6.3%, outperforming the consensus of +4.4% [17] - Generac Holdings saw an increase after Citibank upgraded the stock to buy, with a price target of $207 [17] - Revolution Medicines is down more than -4% after AbbVie stated it is not in talks to acquire the company [15]

Economic Indicators - US nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by +70,000 in December, with the unemployment rate projected to decrease by -0.1% to 4.5% [1] - Average hourly earnings for December are anticipated to rise by 0.3% month-over-month and 3.6% year-over-year [1] - October housing starts are forecasted to increase by 1.8% month-over-month to 1.33 million, while building permits are expected to rise by 1.5% month-over-month to 1.35 million [1] Trade and Productivity - The US trade deficit unexpectedly shrank to -$29.4 billion in October, significantly better than the expected widening to -$58.7 billion, marking the smallest deficit in 16 years [2] - Q3 nonfarm productivity rose by +4.9%, close to expectations of +5.0%, representing the largest increase in two years [2] - Q3 unit labor costs fell by -1.9%, exceeding expectations of a -0.1% decline [2] Stock Market Performance - The S&P 500 Index is down -0.15%, while the Dow Jones is up +0.16%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index is down -0.67% [5] - Defense stocks are rallying following President Trump's announcement of plans to increase military spending to $1.5 trillion, with Northrop Grumman up more than +10% [4][14] - Chipmakers and software stocks are experiencing declines, with notable losses in companies like Sandisk and Autodesk, which are down more than -5% [11][12] International Markets - Overseas stock markets are generally lower, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down -0.22%, China's Shanghai Composite down -0.07%, and Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 down -1.63% [6] Earnings and Guidance - Helen of Troy Ltd has lowered its full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $3.25-$3.75, below the consensus of $4.03, resulting in a decline of more than -12% in its stock [15] - Constellation Brands reported Q3 comparable net sales of $2.22 billion, exceeding the consensus of $2.16 billion, leading to a stock increase of more than +6% [17]

Core Viewpoint - CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT) is recognized for its stable payout history since 2002, currently offering a trailing distribution yield of 4.6%, which is appealing amid macroeconomic uncertainties [1] Group 1: Dividend Drivers - CICT has a strong portfolio of prime office properties and popular shopping malls in Singapore, with an average portfolio occupancy rate of 97.2% as of September 30, 2025 [2] - The REIT benefits from a diverse range of blue-chip tenants, including Temasek Holdings, UNIQLO, and NTUC, reducing the likelihood of missed rent payments [2] - Steady rental demand has led to positive rental reversions year-to-date across both retail and office assets, contributing to stable cash flows and consistent dividends [3] Group 2: Financial Health - CICT maintains a conservative capital profile with an aggregate leverage ratio of 39.2% and an interest coverage ratio (ICR) of 3.5 times, indicating a decent ability to service interest payments [4] - Debt maturity is well-distributed, with the majority of borrowings due between 2027 and 2030, and 20% of debt maturing in 2027, which is the highest amount due in a single year [4] Group 3: Performance and Payout History - From 2020 to 2024, CICT's distribution per unit (DPU) increased at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.78%, rising from S$0.0869 to S$0.1088, demonstrating consistent growth even during challenging economic periods [5] Group 4: Future Considerations - Investors should monitor key metrics such as occupancy rates and rental reversions, with a target occupancy rate of over 90% and positive rent reversions indicating healthy property performance [9] - Attention should also be given to the progress in securing new leases and the retention rate of existing leases, as changes in these areas could impact future operating performance [10] - Macroeconomic factors, including consumer spending and office demand, will also play a crucial role in CICT's business outlook [11]