10月18日，国民党主席选举落幕，郑丽文以过半得票率当选，将于11月1日正式就任新一届中国国民党主席。 综合郑丽文选举前后的表态以及岛内媒体海量的报道和评论，笔者觉得，可以用京剧《穆桂英挂帅》那段经典唱词来形容这段时间以来郑丽文的豪情和 心情： "猛听得金鼓响画角声震，唤起我破天门壮志凌云。想当年桃花马上威风凛凛，敌血飞溅石榴裙。有生之日责当尽，寸土怎能够属于他人。番王小丑何足 论，我一剑能挡百万的兵。" 郑丽文摆出了"一剑能挡百万兵"的气势，赖清德会吓得瑟瑟发抖吗？ 当然不会。 笔者的预判是，郑丽文披挂上阵之后，如果国民党在2026年的县市长选举中稳住阵脚或者扩大战果，从而大幅度提高赢得2028大选的可能性，那么，赖 清德在2028年铤而走险的几率就会大幅度增加。 分析如下： 首先，郑丽文在两岸论述上的拨乱反正是对"台独"势力的釜底抽薪。 根据大陆权威媒体的报道，在回复大陆的贺电中，郑丽文明确表示"海峡两岸于1992年达成各自以口头方式表达坚持一个中国原则的共识"。在笔者的记 忆中，这是近年来国民党主席难得一见的明确将一个中国原则与"九二共识"划上等号的表述。这个表述与国民党之前半遮半掩的"一中各表"，有本 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the differing political stances of the Kuomintang (KMT) leadership in relation to various elections, highlighting the emphasis on the concept of "China" during the party chair election, while downplaying it in the context of the Taiwan election, focusing instead on opposing "Taiwan independence" [5][8]. Group 1: Party Chair Election - The KMT will hold its party chair election on October 18, with candidates emphasizing the concept of "China" [5][9]. - Candidate Zhang Yazhong expressed a sense of despair during the debate, indicating that the KMT has not truly governed Taiwan since Chiang Ching-kuo, and criticized previous leaders for their roles in promoting "Taiwan independence" [6][7]. - Zhang also lamented the loss of the party's spirit and the abandonment of Sun Yat-sen's ideology, criticizing the educational curriculum changes that have marginalized Chinese history [8]. Group 2: Candidate Dynamics - The current KMT membership demographics show that over 65% are aged 60 and above, which influences candidates to emphasize Chinese identity [9]. - If candidate Hao Longbin wins, there may be a shift of the KMT towards the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), as indicated by his more conciliatory language towards the DPP [10]. - Conversely, if candidate Zheng Liwen wins, collaboration with the People's Party may become smoother, potentially leading to joint candidates in future elections [11]. Group 3: Policy and Strategy - Hao Longbin's recent crisis management efforts included announcing five major policies regarding cross-strait relations, aiming to gain the support of older KMT members [12]. - Zhang Yazhong criticized Hao's policies, suggesting a significant gap in their understanding of cross-strait issues [12][13]. - The contrasting styles of Zhang and Zhao Shaokang highlight the differences between a scholar's approach and a politician's pragmatism [14].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Kuomintang (KMT) party chair election on October 18 is marked by Zhang Yazhong's desperate and passionate appeal, reflecting a sense of hopelessness regarding the party's future and its historical significance [2][3][4]. Group 1: Zhang Yazhong's Perspectives - Zhang argues that since Chiang Ching-kuo, the KMT has not truly governed Taiwan, citing Lee Teng-hui's betrayal and the rise of pro-independence sentiments as detrimental to the party [3][4]. - He emphasizes the loss of the party's core values and the abandonment of Sun Yat-sen's ideology, criticizing the educational curriculum changes that have erased Chinese history from Taiwanese education [3][4]. Group 2: Election Dynamics - The KMT's current membership demographics show a significant aging population, with over 65% being over 60 years old, which influences candidates to emphasize Chinese identity during the party chair election [4]. - The potential outcomes of the election could lead to different strategic directions for the KMT, with possible shifts towards cooperation with the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) if candidate Hau Lung-bin wins, or smoother collaboration with the People First Party if candidate Zheng Li-wen wins [5][6]. Group 3: Candidate Comparisons - Zhang Yazhong positions himself as a scholar with a deep understanding of cross-strait relations, contrasting with Hau Lung-bin's political maneuvering, which is perceived as less substantive [7]. - The election is framed as a battle between a scholar's steadfastness and a politician's adaptability, highlighting the differing approaches of the candidates [7].

国台办：联大第2758号决议郑重确认一个中国原则 历史不容篡改 中新网10月15日电 国务院台湾事务办公室15日举行例行新闻发布会，有记者提问：赖清德在所谓"双 十"讲话中再度诬称大陆扭曲联大2758号决议。陆委会称，大陆方面发表关于联大第2758号决议立场文 件，意图改变台海现状，要求大陆正视所谓"两岸互不隶属，中华民国始终存在的事实"，为两岸关系谋 求良性互动之道。对此有何评论？ 国台办发言人陈斌华表示，世界上只有一个中国，大陆和台湾同属一个中国，中国的主权和领土完整从 未分割也不容分割，这是真正的台海现状。联大第2758号决议从政治上、法律上和程序上彻底解决了包 括台湾在内全中国在联合国的代表权问题，郑重确认、充分体现一个中国原则。历史不容篡改，事实不 能歪曲。 民进党当局顽固坚持"台独"分裂立场，否认"九二共识"，不断散布"台独"分裂谬论，处心积虑破坏台海 现状，妄图把台湾从中国分裂出去。他们的所作所为严重破坏台海和平稳定，严重损害台湾同胞利益福 祉，也为两岸对话沟通制造了严重障碍。希望广大台湾同胞看清民进党当局"两岸和平破坏者""台海危 机制造者"的"台独"本性，与我们一道坚决反对"台独"分裂，以实 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent polls indicate that approximately 60% of respondents in Taiwan believe that communication with mainland China should be prioritized to avoid conflict, reflecting a significant shift in public sentiment towards cross-strait relations [1] Group 1: Public Opinion - A poll by the "Democratic Progressive Foundation" shows that dissatisfaction with Lai Ching-te's handling of cross-strait relations has increased from 43% last year to 63% this year [1] - According to a recent survey by the "United Daily News," 88% of respondents advocate for maintaining communication between Taiwan and mainland China [1] Group 2: Government Response - The spokesperson for the Taiwan Affairs Office, Chen Binhua, emphasized that the desire for peace, development, communication, and cooperation is the mainstream public opinion in Taiwan [1] - Chen criticized Lai Ching-te's administration for adhering to a "Taiwan independence" stance, which he claims exacerbates tensions and hinders cross-strait exchanges [1] - The government hopes that the Taiwanese public will oppose "Taiwan independence" and work towards maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait [1]

Core Viewpoint - Lai Ching-te's speech on October 10 in Taipei reiterated a firm stance on "Taiwan independence," distorting historical facts and international resolutions, which poses a threat to peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait [1][2]. Group 1: Taiwan Independence Stance - Lai Ching-te's speech emphasized a "Taiwan independence" narrative, claiming that the mainland distorts historical documents and uses force to change the status quo in the Taiwan Strait [1][2]. - The speech included a rejection of the historical and legal facts that Taiwan is part of China, challenging the international community's adherence to the "One China" principle [2]. Group 2: Defense Budget and Military Preparedness - Lai Ching-te announced plans to increase Taiwan's defense budget to over 3% of GDP next year, with a target of 5% by 2030, under the guise of maintaining peace and security [3]. - The expansion of the defense budget is seen as a diversion of resources that could be used for public welfare, raising concerns among the Taiwanese populace about the implications for their safety and well-being [3]. Group 3: Public Sentiment and Governance - There is a growing discontent among the Taiwanese public regarding Lai Ching-te's governance, with increasing calls for accountability and criticism of his administration's handling of disasters and public welfare [4]. - Polls indicate a decline in public trust, with rising protests and a significant number of citizens expressing dissatisfaction with Lai Ching-te's policies and approach to cross-strait relations [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Xiamen Public Security Bureau in Fujian Province has issued a reward notice seeking information on 18 core members of Taiwan's "Psychological Warfare Brigade," who are suspected of inciting separatism and undermining national unity [1][3][23] Group 1: Background and Investigation - The "Psychological Warfare Brigade" is linked to Taiwan's military and has been involved in activities aimed at inciting division between Taiwan and mainland China [3][7] - The investigation was initiated after reports from Taiwanese citizens about the Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP) use of propaganda to influence public opinion and create a negative impact on cross-strait relations [3][5] - The case has been officially filed and is currently in the investigation stage, with the public being encouraged to provide evidence [3][5] Group 2: Activities of the "Psychological Warfare Brigade" - The brigade employs various methods, including the use of media and psychological manipulation, to promote "Taiwan independence" and create societal division [5][7] - Historical context shows that Taiwan has a long history of psychological warfare tactics, evolving from radio broadcasts to modern digital platforms [7][9] - The brigade has been accused of distorting historical facts and spreading misinformation, particularly regarding the legitimacy of the "One China" principle and the United Nations Resolution 2758 [9][11] Group 3: Specific Incidents and Tactics - The brigade has produced and disseminated propaganda through various channels, including websites and games, to promote separatist ideologies among Taiwanese youth [11][13] - A specific tabletop game designed to distort geographical and historical facts has been linked to the brigade, highlighting their efforts to influence young people's perceptions [11][13] - The brigade's tactics include creating false narratives about economic issues in Taiwan, such as the "egg shortage," to undermine public trust in mainland China [15][16][18] Group 4: Legal and Political Implications - The recent reward notice reflects a broader governmental strategy to combat separatist activities and enforce legal consequences for those involved in inciting division [23] - The Chinese government has taken a firm stance against "Taiwan independence" movements, indicating a commitment to legal action against individuals and groups promoting such ideologies [23]

陈斌华表示，"台独"是历史逆流，是两岸祸害。任何为"台独"分裂势力为虎作伥、助纣为虐的组织和人 员，都必遭法律的严惩。希望两岸同胞积极提供相关违法犯罪线索，坚决反对任何形式的"台独"分裂行 径，坚定维护国家统一，坚定维护台海和平稳定和自身安全福祉。 新华社北京10月11日电 11日上午，厦门市公安局发布《悬赏通告》，向社会悬赏征集18名台湾军方"心 战大队"核心骨干违法犯罪线索。对此，国务院台办发言人陈斌华应询表示，台湾军方"政治作战局心理 作战大队"长期通过架设反宣网站、制作反动游戏、伪造影音内容、运营反动电台等卑劣手段，抹黑攻 击大陆，宣扬"台独"谬论，煽动分裂国家。公安机关对该大队18名涉嫌违法犯罪的核心骨干发布悬赏通 告，是落实《关于依法惩治"台独"顽固分子分裂国家、煽动分裂国家犯罪的意见》的具体行动，是维护 两岸同胞共同利益和中华民族根本利益的正义之举。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has issued a reward for information on 18 core members of Taiwan's military "Psychological Warfare Unit," which is accused of engaging in activities that threaten national sovereignty and promote separatism [1][2][9] Group 1: Government Actions - The Xiamen Public Security Bureau has announced a reward of 10,000 RMB for information leading to the capture of individuals involved in illegal activities related to the "Psychological Warfare Unit" [2] - The announcement is part of a broader initiative to combat actions that undermine national unity and security, specifically targeting the "Taiwan independence" movement [9] Group 2: Allegations Against Taiwan's Military - The "Psychological Warfare Unit" is accused of using various methods, including setting up anti-mainland websites and producing propaganda games, to incite division and promote "Taiwan independence" [2][9] - The Chinese government views these actions as detrimental to both cross-strait relations and the overall stability of the region [9] Group 3: Call for Public Participation - The government encourages citizens to report any relevant information regarding the activities of the accused individuals, emphasizing the importance of collective efforts to maintain national integrity [2][9] - There is a strong emphasis on legal repercussions for those who assist or support separatist activities [9]

侦查掌握，"心战大队"下设6个中队，分别承担资讯心战、情报搜研、战术心战、广播心 战、部队宣慰、战编动员等具体工作，他们架设反宣网站抹黑攻击，制作反动游戏煽动分 裂，伪造影音内容混淆视听，运营反动电台反宣渗透，调度外部力量诱导舆论，迷惑两岸民 众，真实目的就是宣扬"台独"谬论和煽动分裂国家。 来源：央视新闻客户端 福建省厦门市公安局11日发布悬赏通告，征集颜嘉宏等18名台湾军方"政治作战局心理作 战大队"（以下简称"心战大队"）核心骨干违法犯罪线索。 公安机关表示，希望广大台胞认清"台独"的极端危险性、危害性，以实际行动与"台独"分 裂势力划清界限，积极提供相关违法犯罪线索，与大陆同胞携手反对"台独"分裂行径。 赏 通 告 我局接台湾民众举报称，台湾民进党当局利用架设反动宣传媒介、制作传播反动 游戏等手段,对两岸民众进行鼓动、宣传,造成恶劣影响。经查,台湾军方"政治作 战局心理作战大队"(下称"心战大队")长期策划实施煽动分裂国家活动。为依法 惩治危害国家主权和领土完整的犯罪行为,切实维护国家安全,我局决定悬赏征集颜 嘉宏等18名"心战大队"核心骨干违法犯罪线索。 发现相关线索可立即向我局举报,我局将对举报人 ...