Inflation Concerns - Inflation is too high and has been trending higher [2][3] - The current inflation rate puts a real pinch on lower income households [4] - Inflation has been above the target for four years, requiring control [4] Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve chair is open-minded about the right policy stance for September [2] - The current economic situation presents a challenging time for monetary policy [3] - Expectation is that inflation may continue to rise, and unemployment may also rise [3] Employment Situation - The employment side is reasonably close to full employment [2] - Employment has been balanced and healthy for the better part of a year [2] - Unemployment has been pretty consistent in the 4% to 43% range [3]

Let's dig deeper into how the markets are processing all these headlines from Chair Powell's speech. Joining us with his takeaways is Rosenberg Research founder and president David Rosenberg. Were Were you surprised to hear Powell much more open today to the policy pivot and the September cut.Well, if you would have asked me uh a few days ago, uh I would have been surprised. But then I gave a a good second look at the FOMC minutes uh that had come out from the last meeting. And what was really important uh ...

Monetary Policy Stance - Monetary policy is not on a preset course, decisions are based on data assessment and its implications for the economic outlook and balance of risks [3] - The policy rate is now 100 basis points closer to neutral than a year ago [2] - With policy in restrictive territory, the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting the policy stance [3] Economic Outlook & Risks - Risks to inflation are tilted to the upside and risks to employment to the downside [1] - The stability of the unemployment rate and other labor market measures allows for careful consideration of policy changes [2]

Powell says the Fed is moving away from its strict 2% inflation framework.They’re going to let inflation run hot.Buy as much Bitcoin as you can 😅 https://t.co/QbzoZsS9HF ...

Market Trends & Monetary Policy - The bond market (Treasuries) experienced a rally following cautious remarks from the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, hinting at a potential interest rate cut next month [1] - The Federal Reserve's consideration for an interest rate cut is influenced by concerns regarding labor market risks, even amidst ongoing inflation worries [1]

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said while some recent inflation readings have come in better than expected, he hopes one “dangerous” data point is just a blip https://t.co/jBX0RaG4Zp ...

Market Trends & Capital Flows - A significant asset allocation shift away from the US dollar in international portfolios was observed, particularly into European equities, leading to their outperformance [2] - This asset allocation shift was most aggressive from March to June, with Asia following later, peaking in June [3][6] - The US dollar has stabilized in the last six weeks [7] Monetary Policy & Economic Factors - The Federal Reserve's actions will define the next move for the US dollar [3] - The Fed faces a tricky balancing act between unemployment and inflation [4] - The market is closely watching the labor market to determine if the Fed will cut rates [7] - A hawkish rate cut is expected in September, but the Fed is unlikely to commit to a multi-cut path due to inflation concerns [9] - Tariffs are expected to increase again by October, potentially impacting inflation [8] US Dollar & Government Influence - The US Treasury Secretary has expressed a desire for a weaker US dollar [10] - The US influence on the dollar is primarily through verbal interventions rather than direct control like China [11][12] - The cyclical state of the US relative to the rest of the world will ultimately determine the dollar's value [12] - The tariff push is expected to be paid for mostly by consumers, potentially leading to a decrease in consumption towards the end of the year [13]

So was you hate being wrong sitting here 87% chance last night now down to 73%. Does the stock not bond does the stock market care about a rate cut. >> I think so.I you know there was this time last year when the S&P was about a,000 points lower than we are now. The market was pricing in six rate cuts in 2025. Here we are now a,000 points higher.We're talking about two maybe three. So I would say all of that good news in terms of just rate cuts are priced in. So the short answer is absolutely.The market wil ...

So, will Pal give the markets what it wants or will he try to take the focus off of rate cuts. Our next guest thinks the latter in her new piece titled The Jackson 5. Joining me now is Sarah House, Wells Fargo senior economist.Sarah, it's great to have you on. Welcome. Thanks, Morgan, for having me.So, what do you think. We have a lot more data here and it's not decided. We do.So, we have, of course, another month of inflation data and of course another jobs report. And so I think when we hear pal tomorrow, ...

Federal Reserve & Monetary Policy - The Fed's members must work without political considerations to make the best judgments [2] - The FOMC consists of governors and Fed presidents, requiring consensus-building rather than individual decisions [6][7] - The Fed is balancing sluggish job market and GDP growth with above-target inflation, primarily in services [9] - The debate within the Fed centers on whether to prioritize inflation or the labor market side of the dual mandate [11][12] - A strong August jobs number could reduce the likelihood of action at the September meeting [12] - The debate is about the risk of not meeting either side of the dual mandate [12] Inflation & Economic Data - Approximately 80 million workers in the US making $50,000 or less have lost over 25% of purchasing power in the last five years [14] - The Fed should aim for a 2% headline inflation rate, especially for low and moderate-income workers [14][15] - Consumers can substitute goods for services, with goods representing about 25% of the US economy and services 75% [17] - The Beige Book is a critical part of the Fed's process, providing valuable anecdotal insights from businesses across the country [20][21] - Over-reliance on any single data print should be avoided, focusing instead on three-to-six-month trends [23][24]