Economic Situation & Monetary Policy - The current economic situation is highly unusual due to conflicting inflation and unemployment risks, potentially unprecedented [1][2][3] - Supply shocks push up prices and reduce purchasing power, creating a dilemma for monetary policy [3][4] - The Fed's consensus views tariffs as a one-time price hit, but its impact on inflation expectations is uncertain [4][5][6][7] - There's a risk of losing contact with the 2% inflation target and developing an inflation psychology [9] - The industry believes the Fed needs to be more proactive in demonstrating its commitment to the inflation target, especially given political pressures [10] Tariffs & Inflation - Tariffs lead to a permanent increase in the price of goods, unlike temporary supply shocks [6] - The key concern is whether tariffs will fuel inflation expectations, leading to a wage-price spiral [7] - The long-term inflation impact of tariffs is uncertain, and humility is warranted [8][9] Fed & Politics - It's unprecedented for a member of the administration on leave to be a governor of the Fed [2] - It's unusual for a president to try to remove a Fed member on what many consider a pretext [2] - It's also unusual for a Fed chair to operate when the president has publicly criticized them [2]

It's great to have you on. Thanks for joining. >> Have you been killing it the last couple years. It's been so long since you've been on.Have you would you say you have been >> able to repeat your great success again and again and again. You've been killing it. >> Well, first I do want to congratulate you guys on 30 years.And uh Mike's here instead of Andrew. He looks like kind of like a buffed Andrew. So make pretend like that.>> And Becky's not here. So >> that's actually my social media handle. >> You lo ...

It is time now for money power politics and the reason I'm in DC today. Today the Federal Reserve delivered its first interest rate cut of the year. The central bank only lowered rates by a quarter point this time, but officials also signaled two more cuts are coming this year. That might sound like good news, but all of this hints at something that until now still seemed avoidable. An economic slowdown. And it comes as Trump's Treasury Secretary Scott Besson calls for an independent review of the entire Fe ...

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Fed Chair Jerome Powell says tariffs are being paid by US importers. ...

分组1 - The current state of the US economy is characterized by confusion regarding the labor market and the impact of tariffs, leading to a wide dispersion in views among Federal Reserve members [2][3][28] - The Federal Reserve's decision-making process reflects a strong emphasis on maintaining independence, as evidenced by the lack of dissent among members regarding rate cuts, which is seen as a positive sign for market stability [4][19][29] - The Phillips curve framework suggests that rising unemployment may keep wage inflation low, allowing the Fed to overlook current inflation rates and potentially cut rates in the future [6][7][34] 分组2 - Small-cap stocks are showing significant movement, with the SML small cap 600 index up 2%, indicating that domestic companies are likely to benefit later in the rate cut cycle [10][11] - The bond market remains relatively stable, with the 10-year yield at 4%, suggesting that mortgage rates may not decrease significantly despite expectations of rate cuts [12][14] - The ongoing capital expenditure (capex) cycle driven by AI infrastructure investment is expected to enhance productivity and profit margins, positively impacting equity markets [22][25][26]

Interest Rate Outlook - The market anticipates a rate cut, but the extent of the Federal Reserve's dovishness may lead to market disappointment [1] - There is considerable uncertainty and variability in expectations regarding future interest rate paths beyond the immediate cut [3] - Disagreement exists regarding the relative importance of inflation and unemployment, the two factors the Fed considers [4] Labor Market Dynamics - The market is urging the Fed to prioritize unemployment concerns and continue cutting rates [5] - Approximately 80,000 people in the US turn 65 every week, impacting the workforce denominator [6] - Companies have shifted from hoarding employees during COVID to minimizing labor costs due to rising input costs [8][9][10] - Companies are not fully passing increased costs to consumers, leading to labor cost reductions [10] - Natural attrition is occurring in the labor market due to retirements, even with companies not actively hiring [12][13] Inflationary Pressures - There are inflationary trends in the system, but companies are currently absorbing many costs [13] - Tariffs can create a multi-time inflationary effect if their costs are gradually integrated into prices over time [15]

How much will it cost to refund Trump's tariffs? Too much (via @opinion) https://t.co/58PuLTEtn4 ...

Market Dynamics - Weaker dollar, resulting from tariffs, has decreased the price of American maize for importers [1] - Increased affordability has led to higher sales of American maize [1]

Economic Overview - The Federal Reserve faces challenges in navigating a rapidly changing economy with limited tools, under political pressure [1] - US economy is a complex mix of adaptation and experimentation, making data interpretation difficult [4] Immigration Impact - St Louis Fed research suggests that slowing immigration may cause the US labor market data to appear weaker than it is [2] - Previously, the US needed approximately 150,000 new jobs monthly to maintain expansion, but with reduced immigration, the break-even rate might be closer to 50,000 new jobs monthly [2] Trade and Tariffs - Boston Fed indicates that peak tariff uncertainty might be behind us, which is positive for small and medium-sized businesses [3] - Easier access to credit outweighs lingering trade worries for small and medium-sized businesses [3] AI and Automation - San Francisco Fed found that companies facing more trade uncertainty are adopting new tech and automation faster [3] - Firms are automating to mitigate policy shocks [4]

Jordi Visser (@jvisserlabs) says fear mongering over tariffs is now officially over. https://t.co/rCDuwMt7RU ...