with Donald Trump that there's always been hyperbole, right. A a big issue for for anyone digesting his economic plans has been kind of listening to the sales pitch and then kind of matching it with reality and what we actually see and and consistently um you know what we see is is in kind of overpromising and kind of underdelivering uh on the economy. Donald Trump, who is a great American protectionist who believes in tariffs, who believes that if we put this tariff wall up around the United States, that t ...

Economic Analysis - Economists are utilizing modern tools and revisiting older economic theories to understand the current trade war [1] - The work of Albert Hirschman is being revived in the context of today's trade war [1]

Trade Policy & Deadlines - The US is approaching an August 1st deadline for imposing reciprocal tariffs on nations without trade agreements [1] - Multiple trade deals have been made leading up to the August 1st deadline, including deals in Southeast Asia and with the European Union [2][3] - A deal with India seems unlikely, with potential for a 25% reciprocal tariff [3] - The August 1st deadline is firm and will not be extended [4] China Trade Relations - Tariffs on goods from China currently range from 50% to 55%, depending on the product [5] - The deadline for Chinese tariffs is August 12th, with potential for extension by 90 days [5][6] - If no agreement is reached and the deadline isn't extended, tariffs on China could increase from 50-55% to 80-85% [6] - US and Chinese delegations are in meetings to avoid escalating the trade war [6][7] Overall Impact - US tariffs are expected to be significantly higher than when the Trump administration took office [8] - The US is becoming a more protectionist economy [9]

The GDP grew at an annual rate of 3% in the second quarter after falling in the first, a swing economists attributed to President Donald Trump's wide-ranging trade war. https://t.co/wQVVpbm5dj ...

AND I GOT THAT TO MEAN THAT I THINK HE'S GOING TO START RECOMMENDING LOWER RATES. >> JOINING US NOW, FINANCIAL TIMES COLUMNIST GILLIAN TETT. GILLIAN, IT'S GREAT TO HAVE YOU HERE.LET ME READ TO YOU WHAT THE PRESIDENT POSTED THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THIS FED DECISION. HE WROTE ON TRUTH SOCIAL TWO Q GDP JUST OUT. HE'S TALKING ABOUT THE GDP REPORT THAT CAME OUT THIS MORNING, 3%.WAY BETTER THAN EXPECTED. TOO LATE. MUST NOW LOWER THE RATE.NO INFLATION. LET PEOPLE BUY AND REFINANCE THEIR HOMES. DO YOU EXPECT THE PRES ...

China’s top leadership touted their nation’s economic strength while vowing to maintain support to keep growth humming, after the start of President Donald Trump’s trade war proved less damaging than some expected https://t.co/sIvvorOP1E ...

Economists are combining modern tools and old ideas to make sense of today’s trade war. It is a good time to revive Albert Hirschman’s work https://t.co/hXl1NgUjgx ...

President Trump’s tariff threats against Thailand and Cambodia pushed them toward ending their deadly border clash this week, showing again his willingness to use a trade war cudgel and upstaging China in its own backyard https://t.co/eqwX0cqJtL ...

Trade Talk Status - US-China trade talks in Stockholm concluded with mixed signals, Trump acknowledged Monday was not good, but today was better [1] - The talks ended without a confirmed 90-day pause on tariffs, a key market expectation [2] - Treasury Secretary and Trade Representative will brief President Trump, who will decide on the pause [2][3] - Another talk is expected in about 90 days, renewing focus on the August 12th deadline for tariff snapback [3] China's Economic Position - China's economy is "swimming in place" despite tariffs, indicating resilience [4] - China possesses negotiating leverage, exemplified by rare earth export controls [4] - China feels confident in its position [4] Tariff Impact and Future Scenarios - Companies relying on China imports, like toy companies, are experiencing pain, expecting it to last until at least 2026 [6] - The challenge lies in the uncertainty of future tariff levels, hindering production movement [7] - Toys and games are the most exposed sector from a consumer perspective due to reliance on China imports [8] - Tariff rates from China are converging with rates from elsewhere, potentially reducing the incentive to move production [9][10] - A realistic worst-case scenario involves tariffs staying at 30%, potentially leading to empty shelves and inflationary impacts [18] - Tariffs could reach close to 50% when combined with previous trade war tariffs and sectoral tariffs [19] US Strategy and Potential Concessions - The US may offer concessions on export controls and fentanyl tariffs to secure a meeting between President Trump and President Xi [12] China's Compliance and Economic Management - China has previously fallen short on commitments to buy US exports [15] - China is managing the situation by maintaining stable economic numbers and implementing stimulus measures [21][22] - China has kept interest rates at historic lows and increased fiscal activity [21]

Core Insights - Rare earths are critical elements in the U.S.-China trade war, with China controlling approximately 70% of mining and 90% of processing [2][3] - The U.S. is making efforts to establish a domestic supply chain for rare earths, highlighted by a $400 million investment in MP Materials and a $1 billion loan from Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan [4] Industry Overview - Rare earth magnets are essential for various applications, including electric vehicles, wind turbines, defense equipment, and high-tech consumer electronics [2] - China's monopoly in the rare earth market has increased, with low production costs making it difficult for other producers to compete [3] Company Developments - MP Materials is the only operational rare earth mine in the U.S., located in Mountain Pass, California, and is expanding its magnet-making operations [4] - Energy Fuels has been refining rare earths at its White Mesa facility and plans to increase production from 1,000 metric tons to 6,000 metric tons of NdPr, which could support up to 6 million electric vehicles [5][6] - Energy Fuels is also advancing its capabilities to produce other heavy rare earths, such as dysprosium, terbium, and samarium, contingent on government incentives [6] Market Dynamics - China's export controls on rare earths have disrupted various industries, particularly the automotive sector, as part of its response to perceived unfair actions by the U.S. and other countries [3][4] - Despite advancements in U.S. production capabilities, experts indicate that the country remains heavily reliant on China for rare earth materials [6]