We also more or less topped on apathy rather than topping on euphoria. Bitcoin has really stalled out. And really what you want to look at in this case is if you look at Bitcoin divided by the S&P 500, what you'll notice it's actually near where it was back in March.It hasn't really moved a whole lot. This purple line shows the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve. And you can see that as the balance sheet started to, you know, as it as it went as we went from quantitative tightening to quantitative easing, ...

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns that the growing adoption of stablecoins in developing nations poses risks to financial sovereignty and central bank monetary policy management [1][2]. Group 1: Risks of Stablecoin Adoption - Developing countries with unstable currencies and high inflation are particularly vulnerable to currency substitution, where citizens may prefer stablecoins like the U.S. dollar or euro over their national currencies [2]. - The IMF highlights that the ease of cross-border transactions enabled by stablecoins could disrupt capital controls and currency exchange rates in developing countries [3]. - Stablecoins may facilitate illegal activities such as money laundering and terrorism financing due to the pseudonymity provided by blockchain technology [4]. - The IMF warns of potential runs on stablecoins if users lose confidence in their backing, which could negatively impact broader financial markets as issuers may rush to liquidate reserve assets [4]. Group 2: Benefits of Stablecoin Adoption - Despite the risks, the IMF acknowledges that stablecoins can make payments cheaper and faster, particularly for remittances, and can broaden financial access [5]. - The agency notes that owning a smartphone is often sufficient for individuals to hold and transact in stablecoins, enhancing financial inclusion [5]. Group 3: Current Market Trends - The market capitalization of the two largest stablecoins, Tether's USDT and Circle's USDC, has tripled since 2023, reaching $260 billion [7]. - Stablecoin trading volumes surged by 90% in 2024, amounting to $23 trillion [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The IMF states that "stablecoins are here to stay," but their future adoption and the overall outlook for this technology remain largely uncertain [6]. - The IMF calls for international cooperation on stablecoin policy to mitigate potential risks while leveraging the benefits of this new technology [6].

Banking Sector - US bank deposits decreased to $18.479 trillion from $18.528 trillion, marking a reduction of nearly $50 billion, indicating a shift in liquidity within the banking system [1][7] Federal Reserve - Federal Reserve Governor Mary Daly supported the recent interest rate cut, describing it as a challenging decision due to conflicting mandates of controlling inflation and maintaining a strong job market [2][3][7] - Daly emphasized that the rate cut aims to help achieve the Fed's dual goals of price stability and maximum employment, reflecting the complex economic conditions influencing monetary policy [3][7] Corporate News - Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary plans to transition leadership by 2035, seeking a "nicer" successor to take over the low-cost airline [4][7]

Core Viewpoint - Kevin Warsh has emerged as a leading candidate for the next Federal Reserve chair, as indicated by President Trump, who has shifted his preference towards Warsh after a recent interview [1][2]. Group 1: Candidate Evaluation - Warsh was previously on Trump's short list but was not the favorite until recently [1]. - Trump expressed that both Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett are strong candidates, indicating a preference for Warsh over Hassett [2]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Stance - Trump reiterated his belief that the Fed chair should consult the president on interest rate decisions, a practice he claims was more common in the past [3]. - Warsh aligns with Trump's views on monetary policy, particularly the need to lower interest rates, which Trump believes is a consensus among those he has consulted [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve officials express a preference for maintaining a restrictive monetary policy stance to combat persistent inflation, with some dissenting against recent interest rate cuts due to ongoing economic momentum and inflation concerns [1][2][4][10]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Stance - Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack advocates for a slightly more restrictive stance to exert pressure on inflation [1]. - Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid dissents against the FOMC's decision to cut interest rates, preferring a modestly restrictive policy due to high inflation and economic momentum [1][4]. - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee also voted against the rate cut, emphasizing the need for more information before making such decisions given the prolonged inflation above target [2][4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - The dollar index rose by 0.02% on Friday, supported by hawkish comments from Fed officials and increased T-note yields [4]. - The markets are currently pricing a 24% chance of a 25 basis point cut in the fed funds target range at the upcoming FOMC meeting [5]. - The euro gained 0.06% against the dollar, influenced by divergent central bank policies, with expectations that the Fed will continue cutting rates while the ECB has concluded its rate-cutting campaign [6]. Group 3: Precious Metals Market - Gold prices reached a 7-week high, while silver experienced mixed results, influenced by a stronger dollar and higher T-note yields [9][10]. - Central bank demand for gold remains strong, with China's PBOC increasing its reserves by 30,000 ounces to 74.1 million troy ounces in November, marking the thirteenth consecutive month of increases [12]. - Concerns over tight Chinese silver inventories have emerged, with stocks in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses falling to the lowest level in 10 years [13].

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions and Market Reactions - The Federal Reserve has cut rates for the third consecutive time this year, committing to purchase $40 billion of Treasury bills per month, amidst rising credit risk and AI spending fatigue [1][2][3] - There is a consensus that further rate cuts will depend on labor market weakness or inflation improvement, with inflation remaining a significant concern [3][4][5] - The market's expectations for rate cuts differ from the Fed's dot plot, indicating a potential disconnect between market predictions and Fed policy [5][6] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Predictions - Economic surprises suggest the possibility of weaker data than expected, impacting the Fed's decision-making process [4][6] - The labor market shows signs of potential improvement, but inflation remains a critical issue, with tariffs contributing approximately 0.5 percentage points to inflation [8][9] - Predictions indicate one more rate cut next year, contingent on labor market data [9][10] Group 3: Credit Market Dynamics - The credit market is experiencing increased issuance, with expectations of record primary volumes in 2026, driven by elevated maturities and M&A activity [30][31] - High-quality credits are expected to dominate the market, with a significant increase in tech supply anticipated [32][33] - Despite potential pressure on spreads, the market is expected to absorb the increased supply without widespread disruption [34][35] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Investment strategies are leaning towards fixed income, with a focus on investment-grade securities and hybrids, while some analysts express caution regarding corporate credit [20][22] - The overall sentiment suggests that while fixed income has a role in portfolios, equities may present better growth opportunities [24][25] - The market is characterized by a constructive backdrop, with expectations of yield opportunities despite potential spread widening [35][39]

Let's bring in UBS alignment partners managing director Alli McCartney who's here at Post9. It's great to have you back Ally. I mean people did point out we were able to get to all-time highs without the benefit of AI yesterday.And can that broadening continue. >> So when you think about what has happened this year, what 2025 has done. There are three stocks Broadcom being one of them that have done more than any other in terms of contribution to the bottom line.So you have 73 stocks that are sort of AI lev ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack prefers a tighter monetary policy to address high inflation levels [1][2][4] Group 1: Monetary Policy Stance - Hammack believes the current interest rate policy is around a neutral level and advocates for a slightly more restrictive stance to exert pressure on inflation [2][4] - She indicated that if she had a vote at the recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting, she would have opposed the decision to cut the interest rate target range by 0.25 percentage points to between 3.5% and 3.75% [3][4] - Hammack expressed skepticism about rate cuts given the persistent high inflation levels and highlighted the challenges of setting monetary policy in the current environment [4][6] Group 2: Inflation Concerns - Hammack noted that price pressures are a constant concern among her business contacts and that these pressures stem from factors beyond just tariff impacts [5][6] - She stated that if inflation remains elevated for an extended period, it may necessitate a reevaluation of the current policy stance, particularly if the labor market remains strong [6] Group 3: Future Leadership and Focus - Hammack will be a voting member of the FOMC next year and believes that the next central bank leader will continue to prioritize the goal of maintaining price stability [7][8] - She expressed confidence that the new chair will focus on achieving a 2% inflation objective [8]

Monetary Policy & Inflation - A Kansas City Fed president dissented due to inflation being too high and a largely imbalanced labor market [2] - The speaker has been saying for months that rates will be able to be a fair bit lower than they are today for 2026, but is uncomfortable front loading too many rate cuts and assuming that what we've seen in inflation be transitory [4] - The speaker wants evidence that tariffs coming off next year will cause inflation to fall, as the theory sounds like the argument of 2021's "transitory" inflation [13] - The speaker is one of the most optimistic people for one year from now about how far rates can go down, more than the median in 2026 [15] - The speaker wants to get evidence that inflation is going to be temporary, because there were some disturbing readings on services before the lights went out [17] - The speaker says that inflation has been above the target for four and a half years, and it's rising [20] Labor Market - Most measures of the job market have been pretty stable, and the chance that things in the job market would fall apart rapidly in the within 1 to 2 months before we would revisit this again, feel relatively low [5] - The unemployment rate is ticking up from 4% at the beginning of the year to 4040 basis points [10] - If the unemployment rate is for four and a half or under and stays there stably as long as it's coupled with some of these other rates, the vacancy rate, the hiring rate, the layoff rate, if those show stability [35] Fed Operations - The decision to come back into the market and purchase $40 billion of bills is a technical adjustment, not QE, intended to allow rate control, not to influence monetary policy [27] - The balance sheet is growing, but in an ample reserves regime, it's supposed to be a share of something, a share of bank deposits, a share of GDP [29]

talking about the economy and maybe what the Fed's going to do. Uh we're going to talk about that, the markets, uh and everything else. Want to bring in David Servos.He is chief market strategist at Jeffre, a CNBC contributor. Uh good morning to you. We'll talk to Austin Goldby later.I'm curious what you thought of what you heard earlier this week from the Federal Reserve and uh what you think it portends and were you surprised that the equity markets actually moved up on the back of this news. You [clears ...