Markets are rallying, but this Wall Street pro warns it’s the speed of rate moves that matters… In this episode of Stocks in Translation, Computer Trading Corporation CEO and President Peter Borish joins host Jared Blikre and Senior Reporter Allie Canal to unpack interest rates in today’s economy. While the bull market continues to rally, Borish’s eyes remain on interest rates. He shares that it’s not the level of rates that matters, but the rate of change. From rising gold (GC=F) and silver (SI=F) prices, ...

Market Sentiment & Trading Behavior - Charles Schwab's STAX index, a behavior-based model analyzing over 40 million accounts, indicates increased bullish sentiment, reaching a seven-month high in October [2] - The STAX indicator has outpaced the S&P 500 for three straight months, marking the first time this bullish trend has been observed since March 2021 [3][4] - Investors are showing a tendency to "buy the dips" in stocks like Nvidia, Meta, and Microsoft, which experienced pullbacks of at least 4-5% in October, with Meta seeing a 15% pullback after earnings [8][9] - Conversely, investors are "selling the rips" in stocks like AMD (up over 50% for the month), Apple (setting an all-time high), and Tesla (bouncing off the bottom), using rallies as opportunities to trim positions [9][10][11] - Clients are starting to allocate a small portion of their portfolios to commodities like gold (27-28% of clients looking to allocate more) and crypto (around 24%), diversifying beyond stocks [13] - There was a shift in October back to the "MAG 7" stocks, indicating a return to familiar and perceived safer investments during market pullbacks [14] Economic Outlook & Investment Strategy - Despite a prolonged government shutdown, the market has largely remained unaffected, with earnings, interest rates, and inflation being the primary market drivers [16][17][18] - Corporate America has demonstrated resilience with four consecutive quarters of double-digit gains and record or near-record profit margins, despite challenges like tariffs [20][21] - The US economy is experiencing 4% GDP growth and creating 50,000 jobs monthly, supported by AI spending (340 billion this year going to 450 billion next year) and 17 trillion in foreign direct investment [21][22][23] - Key risks to the market include a reacceleration of inflation and the Federal Reserve maintaining a restrictive monetary policy [24][26] AI & Tech Valuations - While generally not considering the market to be in an AI bubble, some individual AI stocks are deemed overvalued, with Palantir specifically mentioned as too expensive [28][29] - Palantir is trading at 300 times earnings and 100 times revenues, compared to Nvidia at 32 times earnings, suggesting a significant valuation premium [34]

Economic Outlook - The economy has been resilient, with growth around 18% [2] - The labor market is near full employment but cooling, with both demand and supply decreasing [2][13] - Inflation is closer to 3% than the 2% target [2] - Consumption remains resilient, driven by wealth effects for higher-income households and increased debt for lower-income households [6][7] Consumer Finances - Consumer balance sheets are generally okay, but there was an increase in subprime loan and credit card defaults over the past year, which has since stabilized [8][9] - Lower-income consumers are increasingly using credit card debt to maintain consumption [7] - Many people are having more month than money, with increased visits to food pantries and requests for utility assistance [27] Company Concerns - Companies report that uncertainty has plateaued, allowing them to operate with a higher level of uncertainty [11] - Companies are experiencing higher costs, including those related to tariffs and insurance [11] - Companies closer to the consumer are having difficulty passing on costs due to pushback from buyers [12][13] - Companies are more concerned about non-interest costs, such as raw material and insurance costs, than interest costs [21] Labor Market - The labor market is cooling in an orderly way, with both supply and demand decreasing [13] - Compensation growth is reported to be between 35% and 4% [6] - Layoff announcements have been made, but weekly claims remain stable [13][14] Monetary Policy - Monetary policy is somewhere between modestly restrictive and neutral, closer to neutral [26] - The real federal funds rate is around 1%, which is the long-run neutral rate [26] - In the past year, the real federal funds rate has declined by 250 basis points, with 150 basis points from nominal interest rate reductions and 100 basis points from rising expected inflation due to tariffs [19] - There is limited room to ease policy further without it becoming overly accommodative [24][25] - It is important to bring inflation back towards 2% to allow households to catch up with their real incomes [28] Asset Prices - Financial conditions are very accommodative, and asset valuations are notable [29] - House prices and stock prices seem elevated relative to historical standards [30]

Market Outlook - The government reopening is perceived as a potential bull trap, with concerns about the underlying economy not improving despite reopening enthusiasm [1][3][5] - Major negative divergences are observed in semiconductor stocks, which are making new all-time highs while showing weakness in momentum indicators like the RSI [2][3][4] Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor index (SMH) is currently 102% above its 200-week moving average, a level that has historically preceded significant corrections of 40% to 45% [4][15] - The reliance on semiconductor companies, such as Nvidia and Broadcom, is significant, suggesting that a downturn in this sector could lead to broader market declines [5][6] AI Trade Concerns - Approximately 75% of the gains in the S&P over the last two years are attributed to the AI trade, raising concerns about overvaluation and potential market corrections [7][8][20] - The market's heavy reliance on AI stocks could lead to rapid declines if investor sentiment shifts due to valuation issues or economic indicators [8][23] Bitcoin and Market Correlation - Historical patterns suggest that Bitcoin's performance can serve as a leading indicator for the stock market, with potential declines in Bitcoin possibly foreshadowing broader market corrections [12][14] - The current market environment may be approaching a critical point where Bitcoin's volatility could signal a top in equities, particularly in AI stocks [14][16] Economic Indicators and Fed Policy - The Federal Reserve's ability to cut rates is constrained by persistent inflation, which complicates the economic outlook and could lead to negative growth [23][24] - Investor psychology may shift rapidly based on economic data and Fed actions, leading to increased volatility in the markets [24]

We're going to start on the economy as the outlook for the Federal Reserve here and as we see a plan to end the government shutdown beginning to take shape. Joining us here first on CNBC is Federal Reserve Governor Steven Myin. Welcome.It's nice to have you. >> Hi, thanks for having me back. >> Does the does the shutdown impact or change your view of what's happening with the economy right now.>> You know, not really because the shutdown what the shutdown does is it depresses GDP growth in the quarter when ...

Core Insights - Consumer spending showed a rebound in October, indicating a strong start for the retail sector in the fourth quarter, which is promising for the upcoming holiday season [1][6] Retail Performance - The CNBC NRF retail monitor reported a 0.6% increase in retail spending excluding auto and gas compared to a 0.7% decline in September, with a year-over-year rate decreasing to 5% from 5.4% [2] - Core retail measures, excluding restaurants, also saw a 0.6% increase from a 0.5% decline, with the year-over-year rate dropping to 4.9% from 5.7% [2] Economic Factors - NRF economists noted that consumer spending remains robust, supported by wage growth outpacing inflation, low unemployment rates, and positive wealth effects from strong stock market performance [3][8] - Despite high inflation and tariffs affecting consumer sentiment, nine out of twelve retail sectors experienced growth in October, particularly digital products (up 2%) and clothing and accessories (up 1.4%) [4] Sector Analysis - The only sectors showing negative performance included building and garden supplies (down 0.8%) and gas station sales, highlighting a mixed picture in retail [4][5] - There is a notable split in spending patterns between higher and lower-income consumers, with wealthier consumers potentially driving spending increases due to stock market gains [6][7] Future Outlook - The October performance is seen as a positive indicator for November and December, which are critical months for retail, with historical data suggesting that a good October can lead to strong holiday sales about 40% of the time [9][10]

Despite some growing consumer concerns, some signs of strength in CNBC's latest retail monitor report. For that, we'll turn to Steve Leeman this morning. Hi, Steve.Hey, Car. Yeah, consumer spending bounced back in October after a pretty sharp fall in September with gains in the CNBC NRF retail monitor across most sectors, adding up to a strong start for retail in the fourth quarter. That could be good for the holiday season.The retail monitor, we get actual credit card spending data from Affinity Solutions. ...

Core Insights - Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM) shares have increased by 106.4% year to date, driven by record gold prices and strong earnings performance [1][7] - AEM has slightly underperformed the Zacks Mining – Gold industry's 108.4% rise but has outperformed the S&P 500's 16% increase [2] Stock Performance - AEM has been trading above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) since March 4, 2024, indicating a long-term uptrend [5] - The stock recently broke above the 50-day SMA, which remains higher than the 200-day SMA, suggesting a bullish trend [5] Project Advancements - AEM is advancing key projects such as Odyssey, Hope Bay, and Detour Lake to enhance future production [7][10] - The Hope Bay Project has proven and probable mineral reserves of 3.4 million ounces, expected to significantly contribute to cash flow [11] - The processing plant expansion at Meliadine is set to increase mill capacity to approximately 6,250 tons per day by 2025 [11] - AEM is also focusing on mineral resource expansion at various deposits, including Patch 7 and Marban [12] Financial Health - AEM has a strong liquidity position, with operating cash flow of approximately $1.8 billion in the third quarter, a 67% increase year-over-year [14] - The company recorded third-quarter free cash flow of about $1.2 billion, nearly doubling from $620 million in the prior year [15] - Total long-term debt was reduced by roughly $400 million to $196 million, ending the quarter with a net cash position of nearly $2.2 billion [15] Gold Price Impact - Gold prices have surged approximately 52% this year, driven by global trade tensions and central bank purchases [16][17] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate reductions and geopolitical tensions have contributed to the rally in gold prices [17] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AEM's 2025 earnings has increased, currently pegged at $7.55, indicating a year-over-year growth of 78.5% [21] - Earnings are expected to grow by roughly 20.1% in 2026 [21] Valuation - AEM is trading at a forward price/earnings ratio of 18.23X, a 47% premium to the industry average of 12.4X [22] - AEM's valuation is higher compared to its peers, including Barrick Mining and Newmont [22] Investment Outlook - AEM presents an attractive investment opportunity in the gold mining sector, supported by a robust growth pipeline and strong financials [24] - However, high production costs and stretched valuations may warrant caution for new investors [24]

We have some news in Washington that we may be getting close to the end of the shutdown, which would release data. But just in case that doesn't happen. Based on what you know now, what do you think about the economy.Mike, good morning. Great to be here. I see an economy that is has been pretty resilient, where growth has been roughly around potential around 1.8% for four this year in spite of a lot of uncertainty. I see a labor market that has been around full employment is around, full employment with has ...

Inflation & Productivity Assessment - Inflation has been relatively contained in goods prices directly affected by tariffs [1] - Other inflation components show no significant surge, and inflation expectations remain well-anchored [1][16] - Productivity and GDP growth are increasing, while the labor market is slowing, indicating firms are seeking efficiency [2] - A 50 basis point adjustment has supported the labor market while maintaining restrictive policies to exert downward pressure on inflation [3] - The Fed aims to bring inflation back down to 2% to restore price stability [8] AI Impact & Business Outlook - Companies are reporting encouraging early signs of AI's positive impact on their bottom line and productivity [4] - AI is seen as potentially transformative, similar to electricity or the steam engine, with the potential to boost productivity and growth [25][26] - Businesses across various sectors are using AI to improve productivity [13] Labor Market Dynamics - Wage growth is moderating, reducing pressure from the cost side of labor [17] - A significant decrease in payroll growth is observed, with the underlying cause being debated [18] - Wage growth is slowing even in sectors heavily reliant on immigration, suggesting a demand shock [20][21] - The economy is currently in a low firing, low hiring period [22] Monetary Policy & Economic Outlook - The Fed is in a good position to evaluate information before making further decisions [6] - Policy adjustments have led to lower mortgage interest rates and increased activity in the housing and borrowing markets [29][30] - Monetary policy acts with a lag, influencing decisions for the next six months to a year [30][31] - The Fed relies on government data, private sector surveys, and direct engagement with businesses and consumers [32][33][34]