Fed Policy & Interest Rates - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut, but there may be three Fed voters dissenting, potentially advocating for a 50 basis point cut [1] - The market will closely monitor the Fed's summary of economic projections, particularly the dot plot, to gauge the expected policy rate for the current and subsequent years [2] - The market is pricing in nearly 150 basis points of cuts for the next year, expecting the Fed to go below 3%, which may be difficult for the Fed to indicate [3] - The market expects the Fed to cut rates drastically, anticipating a new Fed chair next year to aggressively save the cycle and prolong the expansion [11][12] Bond Market Dynamics - The president's influence on the Fed is priced into the term premium, which is the value in extending out the bond curve [4] - Forward rates indicate that the market expects 10-year Treasury yields to be close to 550 basis points (55%) in 10 years, the highest in over 20 years [5] - The market may be pricing in too much term premium, as 550 basis points (55%) growth for the next 20 years is unlikely [6] - The market is already pricing in the Fed getting back to its 2% inflation target [13] Economic Conditions & Inflation - The economy is showing a two-speed dynamic, with high-income consumers continuing to spend, making the inflation story tricky [8] - Core inflation, excluding shelter, grew at 270 basis points (27%) last month, the highest level in the last two years, indicating high-income consumers are doing well [9] - Small businesses are suffering due to high interest rates, leading to firing and a higher unemployment rate [9] - Tariff policies and immigration could lead to stagflationary conditions, with lower growth and higher inflation [14]

Well, so what will a rate cut mean for the markets. Will it be a buy the rumor, sell the news event. Joining me now is Schwab Asset Manager CEO Omar Agalar and Carson Group chief market strategist Ryan Dietrich.Uh guys, welcome. Happy Tuesday. Omar, we are expecting a quarter point cut.But underneath that, what are we going to learn tomorrow that's going to move the market either way. Well, 25 basis points is almost a given. uh any other decision will probably end up bringing a lot of volatility to the mark ...

For more, let's bring in Julian Emanuel. He is Evercore ISI's senior managing director and strategist there. Julian, it's great to great to see you.Um, I guess it's hard to argue with that point, right. This is a a kind of insurance or good news or normalization rate cut program from here on out if we get a full program. Um, to what degree is that enough at this point now that the market's up, you know, 35% since April.>> So, actually, when we think about it, there's two ways of looking at it. In the here a ...

The European Central Bank must stand ready to act on interest rates, with uncertainty persisting despite inflation being under control, Governing Council member Jose luis Escriva said https://t.co/rAI5aO77cA ...

Market Outlook & IPOs - The IPO market is performing well and considered healthy, avoiding the dynamics seen in 2021 [1][2] - A good IPO market anticipates Federal Reserve easing [2] - The market anticipates the Fed will cut rates by at least 25 basis points [3] Federal Reserve Policy - The market might be disappointed by the lack of clear signals from the Fed regarding future rate cuts [4] - The speaker anticipates one more rate cut before year-end, but not as much as 75 basis points, due to factors like tariffs [5] - The Fed is expected to be data-driven and cautious in its approach [8] - The Fed chair is unlikely to signal a major easing cycle to continue fighting inflation [7] Economic Indicators - A 900,000 job readjustment signaled the likelihood of the Fed cutting rates [4] - Core goods deflation has reversed into modest inflation [6] - The current curve doesn't resemble that of last fall, which is reassuring [9] - Flattening of the yield curve (2s and 10s) is seen as beneficial [9] - The focus should shift to economic growth and avoiding a recession [11]

joining us as we said, Charles Schwab, chief investment strategist, Lisanne Saunders. Lisanne, good to see you. Important week.Good to good to see you. Thank you. Yeah, a very important week.Your thoughts about going into tomorrow and what the market's done say over the last 10 sessions. Yeah. So, I I think the Fed does cut by 25, but perhaps in in light of stronger consumption numbers, it wouldn't be surprising to see what is often deemed a uh you know, a hawkish cut uh given the commentary we could hear f ...

I sat down with @HenrikZeberg to discuss his macro outlook, K-shaped economy, inflation, a potential big tech bust coming, why the 4-year bitcoin cycle is not going anywhere, and what a monetary reset would look like.Enjoy!YouTube: https://t.co/egfLMpVGqOSpotify: https://t.co/AGVcmpFvn0Apple: https://t.co/RFfUQao3ZbTIMESTAMPS:0:00 - Intro1:20 - Where are we in the macro cycle?9:47 - Are we getting a blow off top in risk assets?12:20 - Historical stock market valuations vs today25:42 - What happens in the ne ...

"It's really all about inflation"A growing number of economists believe the Bank of England has finished cutting ratesBloomberg's Kit Rees explains why https://t.co/hWSXKCYVbb https://t.co/OeHazAgDjD ...

Core Viewpoint - Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD) offers a 3.7% dividend yield, which, while lower than some competitors, presents a compelling investment opportunity due to its focus on quality and growth rather than just yield [2][6]. Group 1: Yield Comparison - The S&P 500 index currently yields around 1.2%, making SCHD's yield nearly three times larger [3]. - Invesco High Yield Equity Dividend Achievers ETF offers a higher yield of approximately 4.5%, which may attract yield-focused investors [3][6]. - A 4% yield is often considered a key threshold for retirement income, as it allows for sustainable withdrawals without depleting principal [5]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF employs a nuanced investment strategy, focusing on stocks that have increased dividends for at least a decade, rather than simply selecting high-yield stocks [8][9]. - The ETF evaluates stocks based on a composite score that includes cash flow to total debt, return on equity, dividend yield, and five-year dividend growth [9]. - The ETF's approach has resulted in a generally rising dividend and share price, contrasting with the more yield-focused strategy of Invesco, which may lead to less attractive dividend growth [11]. Group 3: Long-term Considerations - Dividend growth is crucial for maintaining purchasing power against inflation, and over time, SCHD may provide more income than higher-yielding ETFs that lack growth [12][13]. - Including SCHD in a portfolio alongside higher-yielding options can offer protection against inflation while providing a solid long-term investment strategy [13].

Federal Reserve & Interest Rate Policy - A Federal Reserve committee is scheduled to discuss a potential interest rate cut [1] - The market anticipates the Fed will likely reduce interest rates, with debate focusing on a 025% or 050% cut [9][14] - The President advocates for more aggressive rate cuts to stimulate the housing market and overall economy [9] - The Fed's primary objectives are to maintain employment levels and control inflation [10] Key Personnel & Board Dynamics - Lisa Cook's position on the Fed board remains uncertain due to legal challenges following President Trump's attempt to dismiss her [1][3] - Steven Myron is expected to be confirmed to the Fed board, potentially influencing the upcoming meeting [2] - The composition of the Fed board, consisting of twelve members, plays a crucial role in deciding monetary policy [10][13] Economic Indicators & Concerns - The job market shows signs of weakening, with a rising proportion of long-term unemployed individuals [10][11] - Inflation remains a concern, creating a dilemma for the Fed as rate cuts to stimulate the job market could exacerbate inflationary pressures [11][12] - There's a notable trend of "no hire, no fire" among companies, leading to fewer entry-level job opportunities, particularly affecting recent college graduates [15][16][17] - Youth unemployment, specifically among Gen Z, is reportedly high, potentially reaching 105% [15]