Monetary Policy & Inflation - The Fed faces a stagflation-type scenario with high inflation due to supply shocks (tariffs) that may weaken the economy [2] - The Fed is considering a presumptive 25 basis point rate cut amidst concerns about inflation expectations [2] - The central bank should normally look through temporary supply shocks to inflation, but the Fed is worried about inflation expectations [3][4] - If inflation expectations rise and become anchored, it could lead to incrementally higher inflation over time [6] - Compromised central bank independence could lead to expectations of easier monetary policy, causing inflation and higher interest rates [7][8] - The Fed's concern about inflation expectations may make them reluctant to ease as fast as they normally would [5][10] Central Bank Independence - Attacks on the Fed, such as the Lisa Cook situation, and potential political influence are concerning [4][9] - The appointment of someone still working in the White House to the Fed is unprecedented [4] - Examples like Turkey and Argentina show that compromised central bank independence can lead to high interest rates and distrust in statistics [9][10]

European Central Bank Governing Council member Martin Kocher said officials stand ready to react to changes in the economic data even if inflation risks for the region are “quite balanced” at the moment https://t.co/gGPY2UUoQ1 ...

Interest Rate Expectations - The market widely anticipates a 25 basis points (0.25%) interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week [1] - The debate centers on whether the Fed will signal one or two more rate cuts after September [2] - The market is pricing in rate cuts that could bring the federal funds rate down to approximately 3% by the end of next year [7] Labor Market & Economic Outlook - Softening labor market indicators, with payroll employment growth at only 30,000 per month in the last three months, are a key concern driving potential rate cuts [5] - The market generally agrees with the view that downside risks to the labor market outweigh upside risks to inflation, justifying rate cuts [11] - There's a possibility that steeper rate cuts could lead to a reacceleration of inflation and a deterioration in the dollar's value [10] Fed Policy & Internal Dynamics - Most members of the committee are expected to align with the Chairman's direction on rates, with disagreements primarily focused on timing [15][16] - The influence of a newly appointed member from the administration is expected to be limited during the upcoming meeting [19][21] - The degree of disagreement among members tends to be small, as everyone is evaluating the same economic information [22]

The ECB must remain on alert to tackle upside dangers to inflation, according to Governing Council member Peter Kazimir https://t.co/qpoeyPWRaX ...

Is inflation wearing down your dollars? Listen to Warren Buffett's advice on how to defend your finances against inflation. https://t.co/BOK1e22NYS ...

The Federal Reserve is poised to cut interest rates as it faces a slowing labor market, stubborn inflation and pressure from President Donald Trump for lower borrowing costs. https://t.co/IsMfQ60qRq ...

Core Insights - Arthur Hayes emphasizes the need for Bitcoin investors to adopt a long-term perspective rather than focusing on short-term gains and unrealistic expectations [1][3][8] Market Performance - Bitcoin is currently trading at $116,007, below its all-time high of $124,100 set on August 14, while the S&P 500 and gold reached new record highs of $6,587 and $3,674 respectively [4] - Hayes argues that comparing Bitcoin to traditional assets like stocks and gold is flawed, as it does not accurately reflect Bitcoin's long-term value [4][5] Inflation and Value Proposition - Hayes claims that Bitcoin is the best-performing asset when considering currency debasement and inflation, suggesting that traditional markets are lagging behind when adjusted for these factors [5][8] - He projects that Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by the end of 2025, indicating a strong long-term outlook despite current volatility [6] Demographics and Investor Behavior - Young investors are increasingly viewing cryptocurrencies as a quick path to wealth, which Hayes warns could lead to negative outcomes [6][8] - The dominance of younger demographics in crypto ownership reflects a broader trend of impatience among new investors [6][8] Economic Context - Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz cautions that a Bitcoin price of $1 million would likely indicate a collapse in the US economy rather than a success for the cryptocurrency [7]

on Thursday. Our next guest joins us with the catalyst he thinks will be the most important for investors next week. So, let's bring in vital knowledge founder Adam Chrysafouli.Adam, it's great to have you back on and let's start right there. Is this all about central bank decisions. Yeah, definitely think the Fed will be the most important um event of next week and we also have a lot of other central banks, BOJ, BOE, Bank of Canada, but the Fed will be the big highlight by far.Okay. And is it really about ...

Fed Policy & Market Expectations - Market anticipates a Fed rate cut next week, followed by two more cuts by year-end [2] - Next week's rate cut is highly likely, but further cuts depend on inflation outlook and economic strength [3] - Uncertainty exists regarding the pass-through of tariff costs into inflation [4] - Concerns exist about slowing disposable income growth potentially moderating consumption growth [6][10] - The Fed's commitment to a 2% inflation target could be questioned if inflation rises [12] Employment & Economic Indicators - Job growth has moderated, but it may reflect labor supply weakness due to limited immigration and deportations [9] - No signs of an imminent recession involving rapid job losses are apparent [7] - Downward revision of job growth by over 900,000 jobs in the past year raises concerns about maximum employment [8] - Consumer concerns about inflation-adjusted income not keeping pace with prices could impact consumption [10] Personnel - The Senate may confirm Steven Myin as Fed Governor, replacing Adriana Cougler [1]

Let's get the final big economic data point of the week when you miss with Rick Santali. Hey Rick. >> Yeah, you know this has a whiff of stagflation to it folks.University of Michigan sentiment and all the inflation numbers the preliminary SE but could still change 55.4% in headline. We're expecting a number well north of that and rearview mirror 582. So sequentially lower lowest since May of 25 612 on current conditions. Same scenario, less than expected, less than last look, sequentially lower, also the l ...