Core Viewpoint - The recent downgrade of the US credit rating by Moody's is expected to have minimal impact on the bond market, similar to the situation in 2011 when S&P downgraded the US rating, which led to significant market turmoil at that time [1][3][9]. Group 1: Historical Context - In August 2011, S&P downgraded the US from AAA to AA+, causing panic in the market, particularly in the bond market, where the 10-year Treasury yield rose by 16 basis points on the downgrade day [2][4]. - The panic in 2011 was driven by concerns that US Treasuries might no longer qualify as eligible collateral due to the downgrade, forcing many institutions to sell off their holdings [2][4]. Group 2: Changes in Market Dynamics - After 2011, contracts were rewritten to classify securities as "government securities," removing specific credit rating requirements, which means that rating changes no longer trigger forced selling or other drastic measures [1][9]. - The downgrade by Fitch in August 2023 to AA+ had almost no effect on the bond market, as the US was already considered a split-rated AA+ country prior to Moody's downgrade [3][4]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the 2011 downgrade, despite initial sell-offs, the 10-year Treasury yield fell significantly by 56 basis points within a month, driven by safe-haven demand and expectations of further monetary easing by the Federal Reserve [7]. - The current market environment is different, as the systemic issues that caused turmoil in 2011 are no longer present, leading to a lack of significant impact from the recent downgrade [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, marking the first time all three major rating agencies have rated the U.S. below AAA, coinciding with Republican efforts to pass Trump's tax reform plan [1][2][4] Group 1: Credit Rating Downgrade - Moody's announced the downgrade on May 16, following a failed vote in the House Budget Committee on Trump's tax reform proposal, known as the "Beautiful Bill" [1][3] - The downgrade reflects concerns over increasing structural deficits, with Moody's warning that the proposed tax reform could add approximately $4 trillion to the deficit over the next decade [4][5] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the downgrade, U.S. stock index futures fell, and Treasury yields rose, indicating a negative market reaction [2][5] - Analysts believe the downgrade could lead to a market pullback, as it adds to existing uncertainties regarding fiscal policy and economic conditions [5][7] Group 3: Political Context - The timing of the downgrade is seen as significant, occurring just hours after hardline Republicans blocked the tax reform proposal, highlighting the political tensions within the party [3][4] - The failed proposal aimed to extend tax cuts from the 2017 Trump administration, but faced opposition from within the Republican ranks, particularly regarding cuts to Medicaid and green energy tax credits [4]