By Marc Jones LONDON (Reuters) -Below are five charts showing the volatile response of global financial markets to the war between Israel and Hamas over the last two years. 1/TAKING STOCK Israeli stocks and those of the world's big weapons makers have surged since the October 7, 2023 attacks. Defence stocks were already on the rise due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and rising risks elsewhere, but they accelerated sharply as the conflict in Gaza grew and are now more than 120% higher than they were wh ...

Group 1: Government Shutdown Implications - The current government shutdown appears to be more prolonged due to a lack of communication between the parties involved, differing from historical instances where resolutions were typically reached quickly [2][3] - The president's potential aim to reduce the size of government could have a more significant impact on GDP than usual, as past shutdowns often resulted in backpay that mitigated economic effects [3][5] - The upcoming military payday on October 15th is a critical date, as both parties may want to avoid being blamed for not paying troops, which could prompt negotiations [4] Group 2: Economic and Credit Rating Concerns - The risk of a recession stemming from the shutdown is considered minor, as shutdowns are generally short-lived and spending delays are usually compensated later [5][6] - Credit rating agencies have already downgraded U.S. debt, citing shutdowns and political dysfunction, which raises concerns about U.S. fiscal governance [6][7] - Persistent dysfunction in Washington may lead rating agencies to question whether the U.S. can effectively utilize its resources to maintain credit ratings [7][8] Group 3: Fiscal Sustainability - The U.S. is currently on an unsustainable fiscal path, with uncertainty about what will trigger a necessary change, but a significant adjustment is anticipated when it occurs [8][9]

政府停摆在美国十分常见，让人感受不到惊讶！ 9月30日收官钟声将至，美国联邦政府可能陷入一场与以往截然不同的停摆。这一次游戏规则变了，比 以往任何一次都更难预测，也可能造成更大的破坏。 从临时休假到永久解雇 自1976年以来，美国联邦政府共发生过21次停摆，多数情况下雇员权益能通过事后补发来实现兜底。 以持续35天的 "史上最长停摆" 为例，当时约80万联邦雇员受影响，其中40%的非必要岗位人员进入停 薪留职状态，60%的必要岗位人员需无薪坚守岗位。 目前约2.5万名试用期雇员身处漩涡，而OMB的解雇名单指令是否合规，恐将成为停摆期间的又一诉讼 焦点。 从机场瘫痪到经济失明 联邦航空管理局与运输安全管理局虽属必要职能部门，但历史教训已敲响警钟，2019年35天停摆中， TSA安检员缺勤率飙升至10%，是同期的3倍，导致亚特兰大、华盛顿等机场安检口关闭，旅客等待超 1 小时。 而2019通过的《政府雇员公平待遇法案》，更是以法律形式明确：无论雇员属于必要岗位还是非必要岗 位，只要因政府停摆导致无薪工作或停薪留职，在停摆结束后均能全额补发薪酬，这一规定在此前的停 摆事件中从未被突破，成为联邦雇员的 "安全底线"。 ...

普兰认为，对于新任总理塞巴斯蒂安·勒科尔尼而言，当前的核心任务是推动预算顺利通过，以恢复市 场信心。财政分配问题尤为关键。政府需要决定是否坚持440亿欧元的目标，并在此过程中兼顾不同政 党的利益。最终，政府必须在效率与妥协之间找到平衡点。或许新政府需要放弃部分目标来让预算顺利 通过，从而有效稳定政治局势，法国才能获得投资者的信任和较低的融资成本。 然而，经济学家马修·普兰认为，该评级下调虽为负面信号，但并不意味着灾难。事实上，这一变化早 已在市场预期之中，其他评级机构可能也会跟进。尽管评级下降，法国的信用状况仍然相对稳固，类似 于从"优秀"降至"良好"。相比于西班牙和意大利等国，法国的信用评级仍然保持较高水平。更为重要的 是，这一变化表明，评级机构的担忧程度低于市场的普遍预期。尽管法国的借贷利率与意大利相当，但 意大利的信用评级明显低于法国。因此，这一评级调整不会对法国经济产生剧烈的影响。 此次评级下调并不意味着法国经济陷入困境，实质问题在于法国政治失衡。普兰说，事实上，法国政治 已经陷入某种结构性瘫痪，2024年议会选举后形成左翼、中间派与极右翼"三足鼎立"格局，导致政府无 法获得稳定多数支持。今年9月贝鲁 ...

Group 1 - The French Prime Minister François Bayrou's decision to hold a confidence vote has plunged the Eurozone's second-largest economy back into crisis, raising significant economic risks and concerns about a potential recession [2] - Business leaders in France express that the uncertainty surrounding the political situation is likely to lead consumers to delay spending decisions, which could severely impact the economy [2][3] - France's economy grew by 0.3% in the second quarter, primarily supported by a rebound in household spending, but this reliance on consumption raises concerns about recession risks [2][3] Group 2 - Bayrou's proposed budget tightening plan of €44 billion includes measures such as canceling two public holidays and freezing most public spending, amidst rising debt and deficit levels [3] - Polls indicate that a significant majority of the French public prefers new national elections, with support for this approach ranging from 56% to 69% [3][4] - The political landscape shows that 41% of respondents favor the far-right National Rally leading the next government, although 59% oppose this party's leadership [4] Group 3 - The decision to hold a confidence vote has triggered significant market sell-offs, narrowing the yield spread between French and Italian 10-year bonds, while the French 30-year bond yield reached a 14-year high of 4.45% [5] - Analysts suggest that whether a new Prime Minister is appointed or early elections are called, both scenarios could lead to prolonged uncertainty in the market [5] - Upcoming credit rating assessments could act as catalysts for the bond market, with Fitch planning to evaluate France shortly after the confidence vote [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Changde Rural Commercial Bank has experienced a significant decline in revenue and net profit in the first half of 2025, alongside a further drop in capital adequacy ratio, leading to a downgrade in its credit rating [1][2] - In the first half of 2025, Changde Rural Commercial Bank reported operating income of 370 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.71%, with net interest income at 250 million yuan, down 21.77% [1] - The net profit for the same period was 3.7845 million yuan, reflecting a substantial year-on-year decline of 45.8% [1] Group 2 - As of June 30, 2025, the total assets of Changde Rural Commercial Bank amounted to 38.43 billion yuan, with total liabilities of 36.496 billion yuan [1] - The capital adequacy ratio, tier 1 capital adequacy ratio, and core tier 1 capital adequacy ratio were reported at 8.07%, 6.73%, and 6.73% respectively, all below regulatory requirements [1][2] - The bank's credit rating was downgraded from AA- to A+ on July 17, 2025, primarily due to a significant increase in non-performing loan ratio and a substantial decline in profitability [2]

Core Viewpoint - The credit rating of Guizhou Huaxi Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd. has been downgraded from A+ to A, with a stable outlook, primarily due to declining asset quality, deteriorating profitability, and pressure on capital adequacy [1] Asset Quality - The bank's non-performing loan (NPL) ratio has risen to 6.80% as of March 2025, with overdue loans accounting for 24.29% of total loans, indicating significant downward pressure on asset quality [3] - The bank's loan concentration is high, with the top five industries (wholesale and retail, agriculture, leasing and commercial services, real estate, and accommodation and catering) accounting for 86.09% of total loans as of March 2025 [3] - Customer concentration is also elevated, with single customer loan concentration at 9.68% and top ten customer concentration at 94.92%, both increasing significantly compared to the end of 2023 [3] Profitability - The bank's net profit for 2024 plummeted by 82.50% to 0.13 billion, with a return on equity (ROE) dropping to 0.47% [3] - Despite a 16.77% increase in operating income to 0.687 billion in 2024, the surge in credit impairment losses (up 109.47% year-on-year) severely impacted profitability [3] Capital Adequacy - As of March 2025, the capital adequacy ratio stands at 10.52%, down 1.08 percentage points from the end of 2024, indicating reduced capital buffer [4] - The core tier one capital adequacy ratio is at 9.53%, also showing a decline, suggesting pressure for capital replenishment [4]

Core Viewpoint - The credit rating of Shanxi Yuci Rural Commercial Bank has been downgraded for the third consecutive year, indicating significant challenges in asset quality, profitability, and capital adequacy [1][3]. Group 1: Credit Rating Downgrade - China Chengxin International Credit Rating Company downgraded the bank's main credit rating from BB to BB- and its bond ratings from BB- to B+ [1][3]. - The downgrade is expected to increase the bank's financing costs in the financial market, as investors will demand higher returns due to increased credit risk [1][3]. Group 2: Asset Quality and Profitability Issues - The bank's non-performing loans (NPLs) increased by 1.097 billion to 3.756 billion, with a non-performing loan ratio rising by 11.51 percentage points to 34.43%, which is significantly high within the industry [3]. - The bank's net interest margin was reported at -0.53%, with net interest income of -96 million, marking two consecutive years of losses, with a net loss of 206 million in 2024 [3][4]. Group 3: Capital Adequacy Challenges - As of the end of 2024, the bank's core Tier 1 capital net amount and total capital net amount fell to -4.209 billion and -3.749 billion, respectively, with core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio at -23.87% and total capital adequacy ratio at -21.26%, significantly below regulatory thresholds [5]. - The bank's capital replenishment channels are limited, and continuous losses have severely impacted its internal capital generation capacity [5]. Group 4: Historical Context and Governance Issues - The bank's ownership structure is fragmented, with 12 legal shareholders and 631 natural person shareholders as of the end of 2024 [6]. - The bank has a history of governance issues, including significant violations linked to the "De Yu" system, which led to substantial financial risks and losses [6][7]. - The bank's top shareholders include entities that have been listed as dishonest executors, raising concerns about governance and financial stability [7]. Group 5: Potential Positive Developments - Recently, the Shanxi Regulatory Bureau approved the investment of 11.7 million shares by Shanxi Rural Commercial Bank, increasing its stake to 1.46% in Yuci Rural Commercial Bank [7]. - However, this investment is considered limited in its potential to significantly improve the bank's situation [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Overseas, the EU plans to accelerate tariff negotiations with the US after the US threatens to impose tariffs on the EU, reducing global risk aversion. The US dollar index rebounds in the short - term, and global risk appetite rises. Domestically, although domestic demand in April slowed down and was lower than expected, industrial production and exports far exceeded expectations, and the economic growth remained stable. The central bank's interest - rate cut and the reduced risk of tariff escalation between the US and the EU help boost domestic risk appetite in the short term [2]. - Different asset classes have different trends: the stock index oscillates in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; treasury bonds oscillate at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; among commodity sectors, black metals oscillate at a low level in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; non - ferrous metals oscillate strongly in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; energy and chemicals oscillate in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; precious metals oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long [2]. Summary by Directory Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Affected by sectors such as biomedicine, automobiles, and banks, the domestic stock market continued to decline slightly. The short - term risk appetite may be boosted, but there is no obvious macro - drive for trading currently. It is advisable to be cautiously long in the short term [2][3]. - **Precious Metals**: Geopolitical risks and trade policy disturbances increase, and the short - term support for gold is strengthened. In the long - term, the uncertainty of the US economy and the marginal weakening of US debt credit will support the upward movement of the valuation center of precious metals [3][4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel market is in a dilemma, with weakening real demand and increasing supply. It is advisable to treat the short - term steel market with an interval - oscillation mindset [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The price decline of iron ore has widened. Although the iron - water output has decreased, there are differences in the market's view of its decline path. The supply may increase in the second quarter, and it is advisable to take a bearish view in the short term [5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron have decreased. The demand for ferroalloys is okay, but the downstream procurement sentiment is not good. The market will oscillate in the short term [6][7]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Trump delays imposing a 50% tariff on the EU, boosting market sentiment. The short - term oil price may fluctuate significantly due to event - based factors and macro - impacts [8]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price oscillates weakly following crude oil. The demand is average, and the inventory de - stocking has stagnated. It will continue to fluctuate at a high level following crude oil in the short term [8]. - **PX**: The polyester sector has corrected, and PX has declined slightly. It maintains a strong oscillation in the short term but may decline slightly later [8]. - **PTA**: The downstream start - up rate has decreased, and PTA is affected by negative feedback from the downstream. The de - stocking rate will slow down, and the upward space is limited [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The de - stocking is mainly due to the decrease in start - up, and the price will oscillate [10]. - **Short - fiber**: It maintains a high - level and weak - oscillation pattern and will continue to oscillate in the short term [11]. - **Methanol**: The price in the Taicang market has declined, and the basis has strengthened. The price will likely remain stagnant in the short term but may decline in the long - term [11]. - **PP**: The domestic PP market has declined. The downstream demand is expected to weaken, and the price is expected to decline under pressure [12]. - **LLDPE**: The polyethylene market price has decreased. The short - term demand has been slightly repaired, but the supply pressure is expected to increase in the future, and the price may decline in the long - term [12]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper concentrate TC continues to decline, and the supply is increasing. The demand is about to enter the off - season, and the inventory is accumulating. The copper price will oscillate in the short term, and it is advisable to look for short - selling opportunities in the medium - term [14]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum inventory is decreasing significantly, but the demand growth rate cannot be sustained. It is advisable to be cautious about short - selling in the short term and wait for a better short - selling point [14]. - **Tin**: The supply is gradually recovering, but there is still a raw - material gap in China. The demand is about to enter the off - season, and the market is under pressure [15]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: There is no weather premium for US soybeans currently. The market is in a range - bound situation without a continuous upward drive [16][17]. - **Soybean Meal**: The basis of soybean meal is weakening, and it lacks a stable upward support [17]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The soybean oil inventory is increasing, and the demand is weak. The rapeseed oil inventory is high, but the price is supported by the low - level inventory of rapeseeds and the strong price - support intention of oil mills [17]. - **Palm Oil**: The palm oil in Southeast Asia is in the production - increasing cycle, and the domestic market generally fluctuates with the BMD market but has stronger support when falling [18]. - **Pigs**: The supply of pigs has decreased slightly before the Dragon Boat Festival, but the price is still under pressure in the future. The futures may rise in June due to the high basis [19]. - **Corn**: With the harvest of new - season wheat, the corn price is under pressure, and there is no upward drive currently [19].

Core Viewpoint - The recent downgrade of the U.S. credit rating by Moody's has historical implications for equity markets, suggesting potential volatility and directional moves in major indices like the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite [5][16]. Group 1: Credit Rating Downgrade - Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating from AAA to AA1, marking the last major agency to do so, following similar actions by S&P and Fitch [6][7]. - The downgrade highlights ongoing economic challenges, including persistent federal deficits, rising interest rates, and demographic shifts affecting labor force participation [8][9][11][12]. Group 2: Historical Context and Market Reactions - Historical data indicates that the S&P 500 experienced a 2.6% decline one month after the 2011 downgrade and a 1.2% dip after Fitch's downgrade in 2023, attributed to increased market volatility [17]. - Conversely, the S&P 500 saw significant gains of 18.8% and 20.8% one year after the respective downgrades, suggesting a potential recovery trajectory despite initial declines [18][20]. Group 3: Economic Resilience - Despite concerns over national debt and economic headwinds, historical trends show that U.S. recessions are typically short-lived, averaging around 10 months, while periods of economic expansion last approximately five years [21]. - The average bear market for the S&P 500 has lasted about 286 days, while bull markets have persisted for around 1,011 days, indicating a favorable long-term outlook for investors betting on U.S. economic growth [22].