此前美国政府停摆造成的关键经济数据断供，让市场陷入了近一个月的信息真空，交易决策缺乏明确数据，如今随 着月度就业报告、通胀数据的陆续登场，以及2026年1月初更多就业相关数据的补位，市场终于迎来了验证预期的时 刻。 与上周美联储的政策动向直接相关：在将联邦基金利率下调25个基点至3.5%-3.75%区间后，美联储主席鲍威尔在新 闻发布会上特意强调对招聘活动放缓的担忧，直接推动美债收益率从近期高点回落近15个基点。 政府停摆期间，由于缺乏官方数据支撑，市场只能依赖民间调查数据和区域联储的景气指数进行推测，导致美债市 场波动率指数一度攀升至年内次高点，单日收益率波动幅度多次超过20个基点。 交易员们为规避不确定性，纷纷调整组合久期，短端美债成交量环比激增30%。 期权市场数据显示，近期挂钩短期美债的利率看跌期权成交量暴增，部分机构甚至构建了明年一季度降息的牛市价 差策略，通过买入执行价较低的利率期权、卖出执行价较高的期权，以较低成本押注收益率下行。 有机构测算，如果本周就业数据低于预期，市场可能会将明年降息三次的概率纳入定价，届时短端美债收益率有望 跌破3.2%，期权头寸的潜在收益率可能达到150%以上。 尽管当 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in the US Treasury market are influenced by multiple factors, leading to rising long-term yields while short-term rate cut expectations diminish [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Trends - Long-term US Treasury yields have increased, with the 10-year yield rising by 9 basis points to 4.44% over two weeks [1] - The yield curve has steepened, with the 30-year yield increasing by 14 basis points [1] - The Federal Reserve's internal divisions have created uncertainty regarding future interest rate paths, impacting market expectations [1] Group 2: Treasury Issuance and Fiscal Position - In early July, there was a slight decrease in short-term Treasury issuance, while long-term issuance saw a minor increase [1] - The US recorded a fiscal surplus of $27.01 billion in June, with a 12-month cumulative deficit slightly decreasing to $1.90 trillion [1] Group 3: Market Positioning and Speculation - As of July 15, net short positions in Treasury futures have slightly decreased to 5.74 million contracts, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [1] - The Federal funds futures market transitioned from net short to net long positions, rising to 49,300 contracts, reflecting increased expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 4: Liquidity and Economic Indicators - The Treasury General Account (TGA) balance decreased by $60.15 billion over two weeks, while the Federal Reserve's reverse repo tool shrank by $56.45 billion, indicating a release of liquidity [1] - The Federal Reserve's weekly indicator showed a reading of 2.37, suggesting a stabilization in the short-term outlook [1]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market reached a historical high at the beginning of the year but entered a bear market in April due to proposed tariff increases, with the S&P 500 index dropping 20% from its peak [1] - Following the proposed tariff suspension, financial markets rebounded quickly, recovering all losses by mid-May, marking one of the fastest recoveries observed [1] Bond Market Dynamics - The U.S. bond market experienced significant volatility, particularly with a sharp sell-off of long-term U.S. Treasuries starting in April, raising concerns among investors [2] - The 10-year Treasury yield peaked at 4.79% on January 14 and dropped to a low of 4.01% by April 4, indicating substantial fluctuations in the bond market [2] - The 30-year Treasury bond mirrored the 10-year bond's performance until late May, when it reached a year-to-date high of 5.08% [4] Investment Opportunities - Current market conditions allow bond investors to achieve yields above inflation, making it an attractive environment for fixed-income investments [6] - Municipal bonds are highlighted as particularly appealing for high-tax-bracket clients due to better valuations compared to U.S. Treasuries and corporate bonds [6] Treasury Issuance and Debt Management - The U.S. Treasury is projected to issue over $10 trillion in bonds this year, a scale unprecedented in modern markets, with $12.2 trillion issued in the first five months of 2025, a 0.2% year-on-year increase [7] - As of June 30, the yield curve showed a significant drop in short-term yields, while long-term yields increased, indicating a market preference for shorter maturities [8][9] Fiscal Challenges - Approximately $9.2 trillion of U.S. Treasury bonds are set to mature in 2025, representing about one-third of the total U.S. debt market, with a significant portion maturing before July [11] - The Treasury is increasing short-term bond issuance to manage cash flow and maintain liquidity, aiming to keep short-term bonds at around 20% of its portfolio [12] Future Outlook - Analysts expect the 10-year Treasury yield to stabilize between 4% and 5%, which is higher than the standards of the 2010s but still manageable if auction demand remains strong and inflation is controlled [12]

Core Viewpoint - The recent downgrade of the US credit rating by Moody's is expected to have minimal impact on the bond market, similar to the situation in 2011 when S&P downgraded the US rating, which led to significant market turmoil at that time [1][3][9]. Group 1: Historical Context - In August 2011, S&P downgraded the US from AAA to AA+, causing panic in the market, particularly in the bond market, where the 10-year Treasury yield rose by 16 basis points on the downgrade day [2][4]. - The panic in 2011 was driven by concerns that US Treasuries might no longer qualify as eligible collateral due to the downgrade, forcing many institutions to sell off their holdings [2][4]. Group 2: Changes in Market Dynamics - After 2011, contracts were rewritten to classify securities as "government securities," removing specific credit rating requirements, which means that rating changes no longer trigger forced selling or other drastic measures [1][9]. - The downgrade by Fitch in August 2023 to AA+ had almost no effect on the bond market, as the US was already considered a split-rated AA+ country prior to Moody's downgrade [3][4]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the 2011 downgrade, despite initial sell-offs, the 10-year Treasury yield fell significantly by 56 basis points within a month, driven by safe-haven demand and expectations of further monetary easing by the Federal Reserve [7]. - The current market environment is different, as the systemic issues that caused turmoil in 2011 are no longer present, leading to a lack of significant impact from the recent downgrade [8][9].