1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that refineries have increased production recently, increasing supply pressure, but it is expected to reduce supply pressure next week. The demand side is affected by the peak - season stimulus, but overall demand recovery is lower than expected and remains sluggish. The inventory is continuously being depleted. Crude oil prices are strengthening, and cost support is expected to strengthen in the short - term. It is predicted that the futures market will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short - term, with asphalt 2509 fluctuating between 3664 - 3726 [8][10] 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In June 2025, the total planned production of domestic asphalt is 2.398 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 12.7%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples is 32.8979%, a month - on - month increase of 0.599 percentage points. The output of sample enterprises is 549,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.86%, and the estimated device maintenance volume is 708,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.06%. Refineries have increased production, raising supply pressure [8] - **Demand**: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt is 31.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of building asphalt is 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of modified asphalt is 14.7825%, a month - on - month increase of 2.45 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the construction rate of road - modified asphalt is 25.6%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of waterproofing membranes is 32%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.50 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, current demand is lower than the historical average [8] - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 602.45 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 9.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 711.6571 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5.92%. The asphalt processing loss has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has increased. Crude oil is strengthening, and it is expected to support the market in the short - term [9] - **Expectation**: The refinery's recent production increase has raised supply pressure. The overall demand recovery is lower than expected and remains sluggish. Inventory is continuously being depleted. Crude oil is strengthening, and cost support is expected to strengthen in the short - term. It is predicted that the futures market will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short - term, with asphalt 2509 fluctuating between 3664 - 3726 [10] - **Leverage Factors**: Positive factors include relatively high crude oil costs providing some support. Negative factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods and a downward trend in overall demand, along with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [13][14] - **Main Logic**: The supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [15] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Base Price**: On June 18, the spot price in Shandong was 3800 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 105 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [11] - **Inventory**: Social inventory is 1.353 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.15%; factory inventory is 792,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.62%; port diluted asphalt inventory is 350,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.25%. Social inventory is continuously increasing, while factory and port inventories are continuously decreasing [11] - **Futures Market**: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract is above MA20 [11] - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, with a decrease in long positions [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Fundamentally, it is bearish. The supply pressure is high as refineries have increased production recently, and the demand is weak due to the off - season. The inventory shows continuous destocking in social inventory, continuous stockpiling in refinery inventory, and continuous destocking in port inventory. The cost is supported by the strengthening of crude oil in the short - term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short - term, with the asphalt 2507 contract oscillating in the range of 3448 - 3514 [7][9]. - The bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support. The bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward demand with the strengthening expectation of economic recession in Europe and the United States [13][14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In May 2025, the domestic total planned asphalt production is 2318,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.3%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt is 29.2426%, a month - on - month increase of 0.419 percentage points. The output of sample enterprises is 488,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.46%, and the estimated device maintenance volume of sample enterprises is 727,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.21%. Refineries have increased production this week, increasing supply pressure, but it may decrease next week [7]. - **Demand Side**: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt is 28.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.02 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of building asphalt is 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of modified asphalt is 8.6262%, a month - on - month increase of 0.48 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the construction rate of road - modified asphalt is 27%, a month - on - month increase of 2.00 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of waterproofing membranes is 34%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.25 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - **Cost Side**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 447.43 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 23.20%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 701.2071 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 5.06%. The asphalt processing loss increases, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreases. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support the price in the short - term [8]. - **Expected Trend**: It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short - term, with the asphalt 2507 contract oscillating in the range of 3448 - 3514 [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - **Price and Basis**: On May 12, the spot price in Shandong was 3585 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 07 contract was 118 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [11]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory is 1,395,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.13%; refinery inventory is 839,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.70%; port diluted asphalt inventory is 110,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.42% [11]. - **Disk and Main Position**: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 07 contract closed above MA20. The main position is net short, changing from long to short [11]. 3.3 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: The asphalt processing profit shows a certain change trend, and the profit difference between coking and asphalt also has corresponding fluctuations [8][40]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: It includes aspects such as output, shipment volume, inventory of diluted asphalt in ports,开工率 (capacity utilization rate), and estimated maintenance loss volume. For example, the weekly output and capacity utilization rate have changed to a certain extent, and the inventory of diluted asphalt in ports has decreased [7][45][48]. - **Inventory Analysis**: It involves exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, refinery inventory, and the inventory - to - stock ratio of refineries. Social inventory has decreased, while refinery inventory has increased [11][66][70]. - **Import and Export Situation**: There are corresponding trends in asphalt exports and imports, and there is also a price difference trend in South Korean asphalt imports [76][80]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: It includes aspects such as petroleum coke output, apparent consumption, downstream demand (including highway construction, downstream machinery demand), and asphalt construction rates (including heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, modified asphalt, etc.). Overall, the downstream demand shows different trends, and some asphalt construction rates are lower than the historical average [82][85][97]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the monthly supply - demand balance situation of asphalt from January 2024 to May 2025, including monthly output, import volume, export volume, social inventory, refinery inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory [108][109].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt may remain flat next week as refineries have recently reduced production to ease supply pressure. The overall demand is lower than the historical average due to the off - season, and the inventory is continuously decreasing. With the strengthening of crude oil, the cost support will strengthen in the short term. It is expected that the asphalt futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the range of 3400 - 3464 for the 2507 contract [8]. - The positive factor is that the relatively high - level crude oil cost provides some support, while the negative factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods, the overall downward demand, and the increasing expectation of economic recession in Europe and the United States. The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [11][12][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In May 2025, the planned domestic asphalt production is 2318,000 tons, a 1.3% month - on - month increase. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate is 28.8231%, a 2.64 - percentage - point decrease. The sample enterprise output is 481,000 tons, an 8.38% decrease, and the estimated device maintenance volume is 759,000 tons, a 1.07% increase. Next week, the supply pressure may remain the same [8]. - **Demand**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 28.3%, a 0.08 - percentage - point decrease; the building asphalt开工率 is 18.2%, a 0.88 - percentage - point increase; the modified asphalt开工率 is 8.1453%, a 0.90 - percentage - point increase; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 24.5%, a 4.50 - percentage - point increase; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 36.25%, a 4.25 - percentage - point increase. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 439.55 yuan/ton, a 19.00% decrease, and the weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit is 738.59 yuan/ton, a 19.30% increase. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support the price in the short term [8]. - **Basis**: On May 7th, the Shandong spot price is 3565 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 07 contract is 155 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 1,411,000 tons, a 0.70% decrease; the in - factory inventory is 825,000 tons, an 8.53% decrease; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 140,000 tons, unchanged [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the 07 contract price closes above the MA20, showing a neutral signal [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, showing a bearish signal [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - **Basis Trend**: The report presents the historical trends of Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025 [18][19]. - **Spread Analysis** - **Main Contract Spread**: It shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [21][22]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: It displays the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil from 2020 to 2025 [24][25]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: It presents the historical crack spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) from 2020 to 2025 [26][27][28]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: It shows the historical price ratio trends of asphalt to SC crude oil and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [30][31]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market Analysis - It shows the historical price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong from 2020 to 2025 [34][35]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: It presents the historical asphalt profit trends from 2019 to 2025 [37][38]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread**: It shows the historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025 [40][41][42]. - **Supply - Side Analysis** - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the historical weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [43][44]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: It presents the historical domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [45][46]. - **Production Volume**: It shows the historical weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [48][49]. - **Marine Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Production**: It presents the historical price of Marine crude oil and the monthly production of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 [52][54]. - **Refinery Asphalt Production**: It shows the historical refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2025 [55][56]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: It presents the historical asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2023 to 2025 [58][59]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: It shows the historical trends of maintenance loss estimation from 2018 to 2025 [61][62]. - **Inventory Analysis** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: It presents the historical exchange warehouse receipts of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [64][65][66]. - **Social and In - Factory Inventory**: It shows the historical social and in - factory inventories of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [69][70]. - **In - Factory Inventory Ratio**: It presents the historical in - factory inventory ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [72][73]. - **Import and Export Analysis** - **Export and Import Trends**: It shows the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [75][76]. - **Korean Asphalt Import Spread**: It presents the historical spread trends of Korean asphalt imports from 2020 to 2025 [78][79][80]. - **Demand - Side Analysis** - **Petroleum Coke Production**: It shows the historical petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025 [81][82]. - **Apparent Consumption**: It presents the historical apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [84][85]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Highway Construction and Fixed - Asset Investment**: It shows the historical highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment from 2020 to 2025 [87][88]. - **New Local Special Bonds and Infrastructure Investment**: It presents the historical trends of new local special bonds and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025 [90]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: It shows the historical sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales volume, and roller sales volume from 2019 to 2025 [91][92][94]. - **Asphalt开工率** - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt开工率**: It presents the historical heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 from 2019 to 2025 [96][97]. - **Asphalt开工率 by Use**: It shows the historical building asphalt and modified asphalt开工率 from 2019 to 2025 [99][100]. - **Downstream开工率**: It presents the historical开工率 of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [102][103][105]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to May 2025, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand [107][108].