交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2026年3月9日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2026年2月份国内地炼沥青排产量为102.3万吨，环比 降幅3.30%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为23.3701%，环比减少2.76个百 分点，全国样本企业出货15.42万吨，环比减少27.12%,样本企业产量为39万 吨，环比减少10.55%,样本企业装置检修量预估为129.8万吨，环比增加26.02%, 本周炼厂有所减产，降低供应压力。下周或将减少供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为21.7%，环比减少0.11个百分点，低于历史平均 水平；建筑沥青开工率为3.3%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开工 率为3.7058 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2026年2月25日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2026年2月份国内地炼沥青排产量为102.3万吨，环比 降幅3.30%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为23.3701%，环比减少2.76个百 分点，全国样本企业出货15.42万吨，环比减少27.12%,样本企业产量为39万 吨，环比减少10.55%,样本企业装置检修量预估为129.8万吨，环比增加26.02%, 本周炼厂有所减产，降低供应压力。下周或将减少供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为21.7%，环比减少0.11个百分点，低于历史平均 水平；建筑沥青开工率为3.3%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开工 率为3.705 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that in February 2026, the domestic refinery asphalt production plan is 1.023 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.30%. The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples is 26.1266%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20 percentage points. The refinery has reduced production this week, alleviating supply pressure, and it is expected to further reduce supply pressure next week [8]. - On the demand side, the current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt start - up rate is 24.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points; the construction asphalt start - up rate is 3.3%, remaining unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt start - up rate is 4.6163%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.10 percentage points; the road modified asphalt start - up rate is 9%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.00 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane start - up rate is 15%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00 percentage points [8]. - In terms of cost, the daily asphalt processing profit is - 29.73 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 40.00%. The weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit is 81.8643 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5.51%. The asphalt processing loss has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has increased. Crude oil prices remain stable, and it is expected that the cost support will remain stable in the short term [8]. - The basis on February 12 shows that the Shandong spot price is 3,210 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 04 contract is - 133 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish [8]. - Regarding inventory, the social inventory is 938,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.16%; the in - plant inventory is 583,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.15%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 1.01 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 20.24%. Social inventory continues to accumulate, in - plant inventory continues to deplete, and port inventory continues to accumulate, which is bullish [8]. - On the trading board, MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 04 contract closes above MA20, which is bullish [8]. - The main positions are net short, with an increase in short positions, which is bearish [8]. - Overall, the refinery's recent production plan has been reduced, alleviating supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, demand is sluggish and fails to meet expectations. Inventory continues to deplete. Crude oil prices remain stable, and cost support remains stable in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, with the asphalt 2604 fluctuating in the range of 3,308 - 3,378 [8]. 3. Section - by - Section Summaries 3.1. Asphalt Market Overview - Futures closing prices: The prices of most contracts decreased. For example, the 04 contract price decreased from 3,373 to 3,343, a decrease of 0.89% [15]. - Basis: The basis of most contracts changed, with the 04 contract basis changing from - 163 to - 133, a change of - 18.40% [15]. - Some inter - month spreads: The 3 - 6 spread decreased from - 12 to - 21, a change of 75.00%; the 3 - 9 spread decreased from 19 to 5, a change of - 73.68% [15]. - Registered warehouse receipts: The Shanghai Futures Exchange's registered warehouse receipts increased from 48,290 to 53,070, an increase of 9.90% [15]. - Weekly inventory: Social inventory increased to 938,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.16%; in - plant inventory decreased to 583,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.16%; port diluted asphalt inventory increased to 1.01 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 20.24% [17]. - Weekly start - up rate: The Shandong refinery start - up rate decreased to 23.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.49%; the national heavy - traffic asphalt start - up rate decreased to 26.1266%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.39% [17]. - Weekly production and loss: The sample enterprise production decreased to 436,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.39%; the weekly maintenance volume increased to 1.03 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.78% [17]. - Weekly shipment volume: The national shipment volume decreased to 211,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.33%; the Shandong shipment volume decreased to 33,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23.26%; the East China shipment volume increased to 72,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17.03% [17]. - Asphalt coking profit: The daily asphalt profit is - 29.73 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 40.55%; the weekly delayed coking asphalt spread is 81.8643 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 405.51% [17]. - Downstream demand start - up rate: The heavy - traffic asphalt start - up rate decreased to 24.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.92%; the construction asphalt start - up rate remained at 3.3%, unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt start - up rate decreased to 4.62%, a month - on - month decrease of 19.24%; the road modified asphalt start - up rate decreased to 9.00%, a month - on - month decrease of 35.71%; the waterproofing membrane start - up rate decreased to 15.00%, a month - on - month decrease of 16.67% [17]. 3.2. Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend The report provides the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2026, which helps to analyze the relationship between spot and futures prices [20][22]. 3.3. Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main contract spread: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads from 2020 to 2026, which is useful for spread trading analysis [24][25]. - Asphalt - crude oil price trend: It presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2026, helping to understand the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [28]. - Crude oil cracking spread: It shows the historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crude oil cracking spreads from 2020 to 2026, which is important for analyzing the profitability of asphalt production [30][31][32]. - Asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil price ratio trend: It provides the historical trends of the asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil price ratios from 2020 to 2026, which can assist in analyzing the relative value of different products [34][35]. 3.4. Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions The report shows the historical price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong from 2020 to 2026, which helps to understand the regional price differences of asphalt [37][38]. 3.5. Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit analysis: - Asphalt profit: It presents the historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2026, which is useful for analyzing the profitability of asphalt production [40][41]. - Coking - asphalt profit spread trend: It shows the historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2026, which can help to understand the profit difference between coking and asphalt production [43][44][45]. - Supply side: - Shipment volume: It shows the historical trends of weekly shipment volume from 2020 to 2026, which helps to analyze the supply situation of asphalt [46][47]. - Diluted asphalt port inventory: It presents the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2026, which is important for understanding the inventory situation of raw materials [49][50]. - Production: It shows the historical trends of weekly and monthly asphalt production from 2019 to 2026, which helps to analyze the supply capacity of asphalt [52][53]. - Marru oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production trend: It presents the historical trends of Marru oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2026, which is useful for understanding the impact of raw material supply on asphalt production [56][58]. - Refinery asphalt production: It shows the historical trends of refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2026, which helps to analyze the production capacity of refineries [59][60]. - Start - up rate: It shows the historical trends of weekly asphalt start - up rate from 2023 to 2026, which helps to analyze the production activity of the asphalt industry [62][63]. - Maintenance loss estimate: It presents the historical trends of maintenance loss estimate from 2018 to 2026, which is important for understanding the impact of maintenance on asphalt production [65][66]. - Inventory: - Exchange warehouse receipts: It shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) from 2019 to 2026, which helps to understand the inventory situation in the futures market [68][69][70]. - Social inventory and in - plant inventory: It presents the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2026, which helps to understand the inventory situation in the spot market [72][73]. - In - plant inventory inventory ratio: It shows the historical trends of in - plant inventory inventory ratio from 2018 to 2026, which is useful for analyzing the inventory management of refineries [75][76]. - Import and export situation: - Asphalt export and import trends: It shows the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025, which helps to understand the international trade situation of asphalt [78][79]. - South Korean asphalt import price difference trend: It presents the historical trends of the South Korean asphalt import price difference from 2020 to 2026, which is important for analyzing the competitiveness of imported asphalt [82][83]. - Demand side: - Petroleum coke production: It shows the historical trends of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025, which helps to understand the demand for petroleum coke in the asphalt industry [84][85]. - Apparent consumption: It presents the historical trends of apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025, which helps to analyze the overall demand for asphalt [87][88]. - Downstream demand: - Highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment trend: It shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment from 2020 to 2025, which helps to understand the demand for asphalt in highway construction [90][91]. - New local special bond trend: It presents the historical trends of new local special bonds from 2019 to 2025, which is important for analyzing the investment in infrastructure construction [92]. - Infrastructure investment completion year - on - year: It shows the historical trends of infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2020 to 2024, which helps to understand the growth rate of infrastructure investment [92]. - Downstream machinery demand trend: It presents the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and road roller sales from 2019 to 2025, which helps to understand the demand for asphalt in the construction machinery industry [94][95][97]. - Asphalt start - up rate: - Heavy - traffic asphalt start - up rate: It shows the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt start - up rate from 2019 to 2025, which helps to analyze the production activity of heavy - traffic asphalt [99][100]. - Asphalt start - up rate by use: It presents the historical trends of construction asphalt start - up rate and modified asphalt start - up rate from 2019 to 2025, which helps to understand the production situation of different types of asphalt [102][103]. - Downstream start - up situation: It shows the historical trends of shoe - material SBS modified asphalt start - up rate, shoe - material TPR start - up rate, road modified asphalt start - up rate, and waterproofing membrane modified asphalt start - up rate from 2021 to 2026, which helps to understand the start - up situation of downstream industries [105][106][107]. - Supply - demand balance sheet: It shows the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from 2024 to 2026, including asphalt monthly production, import volume, export volume, downstream demand, social inventory, in - plant inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory, which helps to analyze the overall supply - demand situation of asphalt [109][110].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that in February 2026, the domestic refinery asphalt production plan was 1.023 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.30%. The sample capacity utilization rate was 26.1266%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20 percentage points. The sample enterprise output was 436,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.38%. The refinery reduced production this week, alleviating supply pressure, and the supply pressure is expected to decrease next week [7]. - On the demand side, the overall demand is currently below the historical average. The cost side shows that the daily asphalt processing profit decreased by 1040.00% month - on - month, while the weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit increased by 5.51% month - on - month. The difference between asphalt and delayed coking profit increased. With the strengthening of crude oil, short - term cost support is expected to strengthen [8]. - The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak. The main risk points are the change in crude oil price trends and the trend of the profit difference between asphalt and coking products [13][14]. - The market is expected to be in a narrow - range shock in the short term, with the asphalt 2604 contract oscillating between 3309 - 3377 [9]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In February 2026, the domestic refinery asphalt production plan was 1.023 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.30%. The sample capacity utilization rate was 26.1266%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20 percentage points. The sample enterprise output was 436,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.38%. The refinery reduced production this week, alleviating supply pressure, and the supply pressure is expected to decrease next week [7]. - **Demand**: The overall demand is currently below the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 24.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 3.3%, unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 4.6163%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.10 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 9%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.00 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 15%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00 percentage points [8]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit was 88.21 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1040.00%. The weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit was 81.8643 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5.51%. The difference between asphalt and delayed coking profit increased. With the strengthening of crude oil, short - term cost support is expected to strengthen [8]. - **Market Outlook**: The market is expected to be in a narrow - range shock in the short term, with the asphalt 2604 contract oscillating between 3309 - 3377 [9]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Price and Spread**: The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and basis of various asphalt futures contracts, as well as some inter - month spreads [15]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 938,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.16%; factory inventory was 583,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.15%; port diluted asphalt inventory was 1.01 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 20.24% [9][17]. - **Production and Sales**: The weekly output of sample enterprises was 436,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.38%. The weekly shipment volume was 211,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.32% [17]. - **Profit**: The daily asphalt processing profit decreased by 1040.00% month - on - month, while the weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit increased by 5.51% month - on - month [17]. - **Downstream Demand**: The overall downstream demand is currently below the historical average, with varying degrees of decline in the开工率 of different types of asphalt [8].

1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2026年2月6日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2026年2月份国内地炼沥青排产量为102.3万吨，环比降幅3.30%。本周国内石油沥青样 本产能利用率为27.325%，环比减少1.20个百分点，全国样本企业出货21.445万吨，环比减少5.80%,样本企业产 量为45.6万吨，环比减少4.20%,样本企业装置检修量预估为102.2万吨，环比增加1.79%,本周炼厂有所减产，降 低供应压力。下周或将减少供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为25.5%，环比减少0.05个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑沥青开工率为3.3%， 环比减少0.50个百分点，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开工率为5 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2026年2月4日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 成本端来看，日度加工沥青利润为-128.13元/吨，环比增加85.30%，周度山东地炼延迟焦化利润为16.1943元/ 吨，环比减少81.75%，沥青加工亏损增加，沥青与延迟焦化利润差减少；原油走弱，预计短期内支撑走弱。 2、基差: 02月03日，山东现货价3250元/吨，03合约基差为-59元/吨，现货贴水期货。 偏空。 3、库存: 社会库存为89.2万吨，环比增加3.48%，厂内库存为60.2万吨，环比减少1.14%，港口稀释沥青库存为库存为84 万吨，环比增加90.91%。社会库存持续累库，厂内库存持续去库，港口库存持续累库。 偏多。 4、盘面: MA20向上，03合约期价收于MA20上方。 偏多。 5、主 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2026年2月3日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 3 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2026年2月份国内地炼沥青排产量为102.3万吨，环比降幅3.30%。本周国内石油沥青样 本产能利用率为27.325%，环比减少1.20个百分点，全国样本企业出货21.445万吨，环比减少5.80%,样本企业产 量为45.6万吨，环比减少4.20%,样本企业装置检修量预估为102.2万吨，环比增加1.79%,本周炼厂有所减产，降 低供应压力。下周或将减少供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为25.5%，环比减少0.05个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑沥青开工率为3.3%， 环比减少0.50个百分点，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开工率 ...

证券代码：839979 沥青期货周报 2026年01月26日-01月30日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 回顾与展望 2 基本面分析 3 技术面分析 2 1 回顾与展望 3 回顾与展望 本周03合约为上涨态势,周一开盘价为3150元/吨,周五收盘价为3424元/吨，周涨幅为8.70%。 供给端来看，根据隆众，2026年2月份国内地炼沥青排产量为102.3万吨，环比降幅3.30%。本周国内石 油沥青样本产能利用率为27.325%，环比减少1.20个百分点，全国样本企业出货21.445万吨，环比减少 5.80%,样本企业产量为45.6万吨，环比减少4.20%,样本企业装置检修量预估为102.2万吨，环比增加1.79% 。本周炼厂有所减产，降低供应压力。下周或将减少供给压力。 需求端来看,重交沥青开工率为25.5%,环比减少0 ...

2025年12月30日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年12月份沥青总计划排产量为215.8万吨，环比降幅3.24%。本周国内石油沥青样 本产能利用率为33.1376%，环比增加3.955个百分点，全国样本企业出货27.181万吨，环比增加11.17%,样本企 业产量为55.3万吨，环比增加13.55%,样本企业装置检修量预估为95.1万吨，环比减少0.41%,本周炼厂有所增 产，提升供应压力。下周或将增加供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为31.3%，环比增加0.13个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑沥青开工率为6.6%， 环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开工率为7.10 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side pressure may be reduced as refineries have cut production recently. The total planned production volume of asphalt in December 2025 is 2.158 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week is 29.1826%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.72 percentage points [7]. - The demand is currently below the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 27.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 is 6.6%, unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工率 is 7.6609%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.32 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 24%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 27%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.10 percentage points [7]. - The cost support may weaken in the short term as the daily processing profit of asphalt is - 290 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 14.00%, and the weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 880.1214 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10.36%. Also, the crude oil price has weakened [8]. - The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2602 contract fluctuating between 2967 - 3023 [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply - side**: The total planned production of asphalt in December 2025 is 2.158 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt is 29.1826%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.72 percentage points. The total sample enterprise output is 487,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.40%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment is 955,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.17%. Refineries have cut production this week, reducing supply pressure, and it is expected to further decrease next week [7]. - **Demand - side**: The current demand is below the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 27.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 is 6.6%, unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工率 is 7.6609%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.32 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 24%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 27%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.10 percentage points [7]. - **Cost - side**: The daily processing profit of asphalt is - 290 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 14.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 880.1214 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10.36%. The asphalt processing loss has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has decreased. The crude oil price has weakened, and it is expected that the support will weaken in the short term [8]. - **Other aspects**: On December 25th, the Shandong spot price is 2920 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 02 contract is - 75 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The social inventory is 714,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.97%; the in - plant inventory is 594,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.51%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 270,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 42.55%. The main positions are net short, and the short positions have increased. It is expected that the refinery's recent production scheduling cuts will reduce supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, the demand boost is limited, the overall demand is lower than expected and sluggish, the inventory remains flat, the cost support of crude oil weakens in the short term, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2602 contract fluctuating between 2967 - 3023 [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report shows the price, basis, inventory, production, and other data of different asphalt contracts (01 - 12 contracts), as well as the price changes and production data of different types of asphalt (such as heavy - traffic asphalt, construction asphalt, modified asphalt), and the inventory data of different regions and types of inventories (social inventory, in - plant inventory, port diluted asphalt inventory) [15]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - **Basis trend**: It presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [18][20]. - **Spread analysis**: - **Main contract spread**: It shows the historical trends of the spreads between the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [22][23]. - **Asphalt - crude oil price trend**: It shows the historical trends of the prices of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [26]. - **Crude oil cracking spread**: It shows the historical trends of the cracking spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) from 2020 to 2025 [28][29]. - **Asphalt - crude oil - fuel oil price ratio trend**: It shows the historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt to SC crude oil and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [33]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market Analysis - It shows the historical trend of the price of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [34][35]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit analysis**: - **Asphalt profit**: It shows the historical trend of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 [36][37]. - **Coking - asphalt profit spread trend**: It shows the historical trend of the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [39][41]. - **Supply - side analysis**: - **Shipment volume**: It shows the historical trends of the weekly shipment volumes of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [43][44]. - **Diluted asphalt port inventory**: It shows the historical trend of the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [45][46]. - **Production volume**: It shows the historical trends of the weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [48][49]. - **Maya crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production trend**: It shows the historical trends of the Maya crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2025 [52][53]. - **Local refinery asphalt production**: It shows the historical trend of the local refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2025 [56][57]. - **Capacity utilization rate**: It shows the historical trends of the asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2021 to 2025 [59][60]. - **Estimated maintenance loss volume**: It shows the historical trend of the estimated maintenance loss volume of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [61][62]. - **Inventory analysis**: - **Exchange warehouse receipts**: It shows the historical trends of the exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [64][67]. - **Social inventory and in - plant inventory**: It shows the historical trends of the social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [68][69]. - **In - plant inventory inventory ratio**: It shows the historical trend of the in - plant inventory inventory ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [71][72]. - **Import - export situation**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt exports, imports, and the import spread of South Korean asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [74][75][78]. - **Demand - side analysis**: - **Petroleum coke production**: It shows the historical trend of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025 [80][81]. - **Apparent consumption**: It shows the historical trend of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 [83][84]. - **Downstream demand**: - **Highway construction and fixed - asset investment in transportation**: It shows the historical trends of highway construction and fixed - asset investment in transportation, new local special bonds, and the year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment completion from 2019 to 2025 [86][87][88]. - **Downstream machinery demand**: It shows the historical trends of the sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, the domestic sales volume of excavators, and the sales volume of road rollers from 2019 to 2025 [90][91][93]. - **Asphalt开工率**: - **Heavy - traffic asphalt开工率**: It shows the historical trend of heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 from 2019 to 2025 [95][96]. - **Asphalt开工率 by use**: It shows the historical trends of construction asphalt开工率 and modified asphalt开工率 from 2019 to 2025 [98][99]. - **Downstream开工情况**: It shows the historical trends of the开工率 of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt, and shoe - material TPR from 2019 to 2025 [100][101][103]. - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: It shows the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from September 2024 to December 2025, including production, import, export, downstream demand, social inventory, in - plant inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory [105][106].