交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年12月10日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年12月份沥青总计划排产量为215.8万吨，环比降幅3.24%。本周国内 石油沥青样本产能利用率为30.0815%，环比增加0.599个百分点，全国样本企业出货28.06万吨，环 比增加7.06%,样本企业产量为50.2万吨，环比增加2.03%,样本企业装置检修量预估为82.6万吨，环 比减少4.61%,本周炼厂有所增产，提升供应压力。下周或将增加供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为27.9%，环比增加0.00个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑沥青开工 率为6.6%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开工率为9.2238% ...

2025年12月3日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年12月份沥青总计划排产量为215.8万吨，环比降幅3.24%。本周国内 石油沥青样本产能利用率为29.4823%，环比增加3.056个百分点，全国样本企业出货26.21万吨，环 比增加6.74%,样本企业产量为49.2万吨，环比增加11.56%,样本企业装置检修量预估为86.6万吨， 环比减少9.60%,本周炼厂有所增产，提升供应压力。下周或将增加供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为27.8%，环比增加0.12个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑沥青开工 率为6.6%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开工率为10.5658%，环比减少0.02个百分点， 低于历史平均水平；道路改性沥青开工率为29%，环比减少5.00个百分点，低于历史平均水平；防水 卷材开工率为33.8%，环比减少0.20个百分点，低于历史平均水平；总体来看，当前需求低于历史平 均水平。 ...

沥青期货早报 2025年12月2日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 4 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年11月份地炼沥青总计划排产量为131.2万吨，环比增 幅18.2%,同比降幅6.5%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为29.4823%，环比增加 3.056个百分点，全国样本企业出货26.21万吨，环比增加6.74%,样本企业产量为 49.2万吨，环比增加11.56%,样本企业装置检修量预估为86.6万吨，环比减少9.60%, 本周炼厂有所增产，提升供应压力。下周或将增加供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为27.8%，环比增加0.12个百分点，低于历史平均水 平；建筑沥青开工率为6.6%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that the total planned production volume of asphalt from local refineries in November 2025 is 1.312 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 18.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. The capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples this week is 30.8006%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08 percentage points. Refineries have reduced production this week, and the supply pressure is expected to decrease next week [8]. - On the demand side, the current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 29%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 is 6%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工率 is 11.2169%, a month - on - month increase of 0.79 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 34%, unchanged from the previous month; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 33%, a month - on - month decrease of 1 percentage point [8]. - In terms of cost, the daily asphalt processing profit is - 562.55 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 3.80%, and the weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 915.1743 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 14.48%. The loss of asphalt processing increases, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increases. Crude oil is strengthening, and it is expected to support the price in the short term [8]. - The basis on November 14 shows that the spot price in Shandong is 3010 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 27 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a neutral situation [8]. - In terms of inventory, the social inventory is 825,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.02%; the in - plant inventory is 647,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.94%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 350,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.75%. The social inventory is continuously decreasing, while the in - plant and port inventories are increasing, showing a neutral situation [8]. - The disk shows that MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closes below MA20, showing a bearish situation [8]. - The net short position of the main contract is increasing, showing a bearish situation [8]. - In general, refineries have reduced production recently, the demand is affected by the off - season, and the overall demand is lower than expected. The inventory is stable, and crude oil is strengthening. The cost support is expected to strengthen in the short term, and the disk is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term. Asphalt 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3012 - 3062 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Likely Positive Factors**: The relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support [10]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The demand for high - priced asphalt is insufficient, and the overall demand is declining. The expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States is strengthening [11]. - **Main Logic**: The supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [12]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the price, basis, inventory, production, and other data of different asphalt contracts (01 - 12 contracts), including their previous values and percentage changes [15]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [18][20]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [22][23]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: It presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [26]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The report shows the historical crack spreads of asphalt against SC, WTI, and Brent crude oils from 2020 to 2025 [29][30]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: It presents the historical price ratio trends of asphalt against SC crude oil and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [34]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [36]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: It presents the historical profit trend of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [39]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The report shows the historical profit spread trend between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [42][43]. - **Supply - Side Analysis** - **Shipment Volume**: It presents the historical weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [45]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The report shows the historical domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [47]. - **Production Volume**: It presents the historical weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [50]. - **Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: The report shows the historical price trend of Marey crude oil and the monthly production trend of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 [55]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: It presents the historical production volume of local refinery asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [57]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The report shows the historical weekly capacity utilization rate of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [60]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume**: It presents the historical estimated maintenance loss volume trend of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [62]. - **Inventory Analysis** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The report shows the historical exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [65][66][67]. - **Social Inventory and In - Plant Inventory**: It presents the historical social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [69]. - **In - Plant Inventory Inventory Ratio**: The report shows the historical in - plant inventory inventory ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [72]. - **Import and Export Situation** - **Export and Import Trends**: It presents the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [75]. - **Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend**: The report shows the historical import spread trend of Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [78]. - **Demand - Side Analysis** - **Petroleum Coke Production**: It presents the historical production volume of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025 [81]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The report shows the historical apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [84]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Highway Construction and Fixed - Asset Investment in Transportation**: It presents the historical fixed - asset investment in highway construction and transportation from 2020 to 2025 [87]. - **New Local Special Bonds and Infrastructure Investment Completion**: The report shows the historical trends of new local special bonds and the year - on - year change of infrastructure investment completion from 2019 to 2025 [88]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: It presents the historical sales volume trends of asphalt concrete pavers, domestic excavators, and road rollers from 2019 to 2025, as well as the monthly working hours of excavators from 2020 to 2025 [92][94]. - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate** - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate**: It presents the historical capacity utilization rate of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [96]. - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate by Use**: The report shows the historical capacity utilization rates of construction asphalt and modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [99]. - **Downstream Capacity Utilization Situation**: It presents the historical capacity utilization rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [101][103]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to November 2025, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand data [106].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side is under increasing pressure as refineries have increased production recently. In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt sample production capacity increased, and the output of sample enterprises also increased [8]. - The demand side is weak. The current demand is below the historical average level, with the construction of various types of asphalt and related products showing low or declining operating rates [8]. - The cost side is supported by the strengthening of crude oil. Although the daily processing profit of asphalt has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has also decreased, the rising crude oil price is expected to provide short - term support [9]. - The overall expectation is that the asphalt futures market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term. The asphalt 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3228 - 3270 [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Supply: The refineries' increased production has raised supply pressure, and it may further increase next week. The planned production in August 2025 decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. This week, the capacity utilization rate, output, and shipment of sample enterprises all changed, with the device maintenance volume decreasing [8]. - Demand: The operating rates of various types of asphalt downstream products are generally lower than the historical average, indicating weak demand [8]. - Cost: The daily processing profit of asphalt decreased by 8.00% month - on - month, and the weekly delayed coking profit in Shandong decreased by 18.59%. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support the cost in the short term [9]. - Expectation: The asphalt futures market is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2601 contract in the 3228 - 3270 range [10]. - Other factors: The basis shows that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish. The inventory situation is mixed, with social inventory decreasing, factory inventory increasing, and port diluted asphalt inventory decreasing. The MA20 of the disk is downward, and the 01 contract price is below the MA20, which is bearish. The main position is net long, but the long position is decreasing, which is bullish [11]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The prices of various asphalt contracts generally increased compared with the previous values, with different ranges of increase. The inventory situation also changed, with some inventories increasing and some decreasing. The operating rates of different regions and products also showed various trends [18]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis and Spread Analysis - Basis: The report shows the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis, which helps to understand the price relationship between the spot and futures markets [20]. - Spread: It includes the spread trends of main contracts (such as 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts), the price trends of asphalt and crude oil, the cracking spread of crude oil, and the price - to - price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil, providing comprehensive information for analyzing the market relationship [23][26][29][33]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt, reflecting the price changes in the spot market [36]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit analysis: It includes the profit trends of asphalt and the profit spread trends between coking and asphalt, which are important for understanding the profitability of the asphalt industry [39][42]. - Supply - side analysis: It covers aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production volume, crude oil price and production volume, refinery production, operating rate, and maintenance loss volume, comprehensively reflecting the supply situation of the asphalt market [45][47][50][53][56][59][62]. - Inventory analysis: It includes exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, and factory inventory inventory ratio, which are crucial for understanding the inventory status of the asphalt market [65][69][72]. - Import and export analysis: It shows the export and import trends of asphalt and the import price difference trends of South Korean asphalt, reflecting the international trade situation of asphalt [75][78]. - Demand - side analysis: It includes aspects such as petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (including highway construction investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion, and downstream machinery demand), asphalt operating rate, and downstream operating conditions, comprehensively reflecting the demand situation of the asphalt market [81][84][87][91][96][99][101]. - Supply - demand balance sheet: The monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet shows the production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand of asphalt in different months, helping to understand the overall supply - demand relationship of the asphalt market [106].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt remains high as refineries have recently increased production. The overall demand recovery is less than expected and remains sluggish. Although the cost support from crude oil has strengthened in the short - term, the inventory situation is mixed with social inventory decreasing, factory inventory increasing, and port inventory decreasing. It is expected that the asphalt futures market will show a narrow - range oscillation in the short - term, with the asphalt 2601 contract oscillating between 3137 - 3177 [8][10]. - The cost of crude oil is relatively high, providing some support, but there is insufficient demand for high - priced asphalt products, and the overall demand is declining with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [13][14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In August 2025, the total planned domestic asphalt production was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week was 37.3921%, a month - on - month increase of 0.359 percentage points. The shipment of sample enterprises was 253,350 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.48%. The output of sample enterprises was 624,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.97%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 616,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.44%. Refineries have increased production this week, increasing supply pressure, and this may continue next week [8]. - **Demand Side**: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt was 35.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.04 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The construction rate of building asphalt was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average. The construction rate of modified asphalt was 12.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.43 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The construction rate of road - modified asphalt was 29%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average. The construction rate of waterproofing membranes was 33.5%, a month - on - month increase of 3.50 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost Side**: The daily processing profit of asphalt was - 299.81 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 8.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 718.39 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 18.59%. The processing loss of asphalt has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has also decreased. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected that the support will strengthen in the short - term [9]. - **Other Aspects**: On October 21, the spot price in Shandong was 3340 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 183 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price. Social inventory was 1.051 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.66%. Factory inventory was 727,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.36%. Port diluted asphalt inventory was 100,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.66%. The MA20 of the market trend is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20. The net position of the main players is long, changing from short to long [11]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the latest values, previous values, changes, and change rates of various indicators such as different contracts' prices, inventory, construction rates, and profits of asphalt [18]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis and Spread Analysis - **Basis Trend**: It shows the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 - 2025 [20][21]. - **Spread Analysis**: It includes the spread trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts of asphalt, the price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil, the cracking spread of crude oil, and the price - ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 - 2025 [23][26][29][33]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - It presents the historical trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt prices from 2020 - 2025 [36][37]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt profit and the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [38][41]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: It includes the trends of shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production volume (weekly and monthly), Marrow crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production, local refinery asphalt production, construction rate, and maintenance loss estimation from 2018 - 2025 [44][46][49][52][55][58][61]. - **Inventory Analysis**: It shows the trends of exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, and factory inventory inventory - to - sales ratio from 2019 - 2025 [64][68][71]. - **Import and Export Analysis**: It presents the trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 - 2025, as well as the import price spread of South Korean asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [74][77][78]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: It includes the trends of petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (highway construction, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion), downstream machinery demand (asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator sales, roller sales, excavator monthly working hours), asphalt construction rate (heavy - traffic asphalt, by - use asphalt), and downstream construction conditions (shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt) from 2019 - 2025 [80][83][86][90][95][98][100]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to September 2025, including monthly production, import, export, social inventory, factory inventory, and downstream demand [105][106].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that in August 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2.413 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week was 37.3921%, a month - on - month increase of 0.359 percentage points. Refineries increased production this week, increasing supply pressure, and this may continue next week [8]. - On the demand side, the current demand is below the historical average. The start - up rates of heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane are all lower than the historical average, with only the waterproofing membrane start - up rate showing a month - on - month increase of 3.50 percentage points [8]. - In terms of cost, the daily asphalt processing profit was - 299.81 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 8.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 718.39 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 18.59%. The decline in asphalt processing losses and the narrowing profit gap between asphalt and delayed coking, along with the weakening of crude oil, are expected to lead to a short - term weakening of cost support [9]. - The overall view is that the fundamentals are bearish; the basis is bullish; inventory is neutral; the disk is bearish; and the main position is bearish. It is expected that the disk will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2601 fluctuating in the range of 3114 - 3156 [8][10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: The planned production in August 2025 decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. This week, the capacity utilization rate, output, and shipments increased, while the estimated maintenance volume decreased, increasing supply pressure [8]. - **Demand**: The start - up rates of various types of asphalt are lower than the historical average, indicating weak demand [8]. - **Cost**: The processing profit decreased, and the profit gap with delayed coking narrowed. Crude oil is weak, and cost support is expected to weaken [9]. - **Prediction**: The fundamentals are bearish, the basis is bullish, inventory is neutral, the disk is bearish, and the main position is bearish. The disk is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2601 in the 3114 - 3156 range [8][10][11]. - **Leverage and Risks**: Bullish factors include relatively high crude oil costs providing some support; bearish factors are insufficient demand for high - priced goods and overall downward demand with strengthened expectations of an economic recession in Europe and the United States. The main logical factors are high supply pressure and weak demand recovery. The main risk points are the change in crude oil prices and the profit gap trend between asphalt and coking products [13][14][15] 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - **Market Overview**: The report provides detailed data on the current values, previous values, changes, and change rates of various indicators of different asphalt contracts, including futures closing prices, basis, inventory, and production [18]. - **Basis Trend**: It presents the historical basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China from 2020 to 2025 [20][21]. - **Spread Analysis** - **Main Contract Spread**: It shows the historical spread trends of asphalt 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts from 2020 to 2025 [23][24]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: It depicts the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [26][27]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: It shows the historical crack spreads of asphalt against SC, WTI, and Brent crude oils from 2020 to 2025 [29][30][31]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil - Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: It presents the historical price ratio trends of asphalt against SC crude oil and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [33][35]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - **Regional Market Price Trend**: It shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [36][37]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: It presents the historical profit trend of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [38][39]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: It shows the historical profit spread trend between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [41][42][43]. - **Supply - Side Analysis** - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the historical weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [44][45]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: It presents the historical domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [46][47]. - **Production Volume**: It shows the historical weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [49][50]. - **Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: It depicts the historical price trend of Marey crude oil and the monthly production trend of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 [52][54]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: It shows the historical asphalt production of local refineries from 2019 to 2025 [55][56]. - **Start - up Rate**: It presents the historical weekly start - up rate of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [58][59]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume**: It shows the historical estimated maintenance loss volume trend of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [61][62]. - **Inventory Analysis** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: It presents the historical exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [64][65][66]. - **Social Inventory and Factory Inventory**: It shows the historical social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [68][69]. - **Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio**: It presents the historical factory inventory inventory ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [71][72]. - **Import and Export Situation** - **Export and Import Trends**: It shows the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [74][75]. - **South Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend**: It presents the historical import spread trend of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [78][79]. - **Demand - Side Analysis** - **Petroleum Coke Production**: It shows the historical production volume of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025 [80][81]. - **Apparent Consumption**: It presents the historical apparent consumption volume of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [83][84]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Highway Construction and Fixed - Asset Investment**: It shows the historical highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment from 2020 to 2025, the new local special bond trend from 2019 to 2025, and the year - on - year change in infrastructure investment completion from 2020 to 2024 [86][87][88]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: It presents the historical sales volume trends of asphalt concrete pavers, domestic excavators, and road rollers from 2019 to 2025, as well as the monthly operating hours of excavators from 2020 to 2025 [90][91][94]. - **Asphalt Start - up Rate** - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Start - up Rate**: It shows the historical start - up rate of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [95][96]. - **Asphalt Start - up Rate by Use**: It presents the historical start - up rates of building asphalt, modified asphalt, and other types of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [98][99]. - **Downstream Start - up Situation**: It shows the historical start - up rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane modified asphalt, and other downstream products from 2019 to 2025 [100][101][103]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to September 2025, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand [105][106].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The supply side: In August 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2413000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt decreased, the output of sample enterprises decreased, and the device maintenance volume increased, reducing the supply pressure [8]. - The demand side: The current demand for various types of asphalt and related products is lower than the historical average level, and the overall demand recovery in the peak season is less than expected and remains sluggish [8]. - The cost side: The daily asphalt processing profit decreased, the weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries increased, the asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. The weakening of crude oil is expected to weaken the support in the short term [8]. - Comprehensive judgment: The fundamentals are bearish; the basis is bullish; the inventory is neutral; the disk is bearish; the main position is bearish. It is expected that the disk will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and asphalt 2511 will fluctuate in the range of 3281 - 3323 [8]. - Influencing factors: Bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support; bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward demand with the strengthening expectation of the European and American economic recession. The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high and the demand recovery is weak [8][10][11][12]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Views - Supply: This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 37.0326%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.14 percentage points. The output of sample enterprises was 618000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.98%, and the device maintenance volume was estimated to be 625000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.96%. The refineries have reduced production recently, reducing the supply pressure [8]. - Demand: The construction rates of various types of asphalt are lower than the historical average levels. The overall demand is less than expected and remains sluggish [8]. - Cost: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 345.85 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 24.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 882.4386 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 12.29%. The weakening of crude oil is expected to weaken the support in the short term [8]. - Other aspects: The basis is 178 yuan/ton on October 13, with the spot price higher than the futures price; the social inventory decreased by 1.30% month - on - month, the factory inventory increased by 6.48% month - on - month, and the port inventory decreased by 7.69% month - on - month; the MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20; the main position is net short, changing from long to short [8]. 2. Fundamentals/Position Data - **Market Overview**: The prices of various asphalt contracts decreased, and the trading volume and open interest of some contracts increased. The social inventory decreased, the factory inventory increased, and the port inventory decreased [15]. - **Price and Spread Analysis** - **Basis**: The report shows the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt [17][18]. - **Contract Spread**: The report presents the historical trends of the spreads between the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts of asphalt [20][21]. - **Price Ratio**: The report shows the historical trends of the price ratios among asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [30][32]. - **Fundamental Analysis** - **Profit**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt profit and the profit spread between coking and asphalt [35][38]. - **Supply - side**: It includes aspects such as shipment volume, port inventory of diluted asphalt, production volume, price of Ma Rui crude oil, production volume of Venezuelan crude oil, production volume of local refinery asphalt, construction rate, and device maintenance loss [41][43][46][50][53][56][59]. - **Inventory**: It includes exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, and the inventory - to - sales ratio of factory inventory [62][66][69]. - **Import and Export**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt export, import, and the import price spread of South Korean asphalt [72][75][77]. - **Demand - side**: It includes aspects such as petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (including highway construction investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion, and sales of related machinery), asphalt construction rate, and downstream construction conditions [78][81][84][88][93][96][97]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report provides a monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet, including downstream demand, port inventory of diluted asphalt, factory inventory, social inventory, export volume, import volume, and production volume [102][103].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the asphalt market is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, with the asphalt 2511 contract oscillating between 3429 - 3471 [7][9]. - The fundamentals are bullish, with the cost side supported by the strengthening of crude oil in the short - term. The basis is bullish as the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. The inventory situation is mixed, with social and factory inventories decreasing and port inventories increasing. The market sentiment is bearish in terms of the moving average and the net short position of the main contract [7][8][9]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the market. Bullish factors include the relatively high cost of crude oil providing some support, while bearish factors are the lack of demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward trend in demand along with the increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In August 2025, the planned domestic asphalt production was 2413,000 tons, a 5.1% month - on - month decrease and a 17.1% year - on - year increase. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples was 30.501%, a 0.90 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month. The output of sample enterprises was 509,000 tons, a 2.86% month - on - month decrease, and the estimated device maintenance volume was 685,000 tons, a 0.44% month - on - month increase. Refineries have reduced production recently, which will ease supply pressure [7]. - **Demand**: The current demand for asphalt is below the historical average. The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, modified asphalt, and road - modified asphalt is either decreasing or remaining flat and lower than the historical average, while the construction rate of waterproofing membranes has a slight increase but is still below the historical average [7]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 513.38 yuan/ton, a 3.00% month - on - month decrease. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 792.0771 yuan/ton, a 6.94% month - on - month increase. The loss in asphalt processing is decreasing, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking is increasing. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected to provide short - term support [8]. - **Basis**: On September 10, the spot price in Shandong was 3540 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 90 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [9]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory is 1225,000 tons, a 3.54% month - on - month decrease; factory inventory is 642,000 tons, a 4.74% month - on - month decrease; port diluted asphalt inventory is 320,000 tons, a 68.42% month - on - month increase [9]. - **Market**: The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20. The main contract has a net short position, and the short position is decreasing [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - **Basis Trend**: Charts show the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025 [18][19]. - **Spread Analysis**: - **Main Contract Spread**: Charts show the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [21][22]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: Charts show the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [24][25]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: Charts show the historical trends of the crack spreads of asphalt and SC, WTI, and Brent crude oils from 2020 to 2025 [27][28][29]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: Charts show the historical price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [31][33]. 3.3 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: A chart shows the historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 [36][37]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread**: A chart shows the historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025 [39][40][41]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: A chart shows the historical weekly shipment volumes of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [42][43]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: A chart shows the historical domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [44][45]. - **Production Volume**: Charts show the historical weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [47][48]. - **Marine Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Production**: A chart shows the historical price trends of Marine crude oil and the monthly production of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 [51][53]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: A chart shows the historical asphalt production of local refineries from 2019 to 2025 [54][55]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: A chart shows the historical weekly capacity utilization rates of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [57][58]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss**: A chart shows the historical estimated maintenance loss trends of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [59][60]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: Charts show the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2025 [62][63][64]. - **Social and Factory Inventories**: Charts show the historical social and factory inventories of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [66][67]. - **Factory Inventory Ratio**: A chart shows the historical factory inventory ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [69][70]. - **Import - Export Analysis**: - **Export and Import Trends**: Charts show the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [72][73]. - **Korean Asphalt Import Spread**: A chart shows the historical import spread trends of Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [75][76][77]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Production**: A chart shows the historical production of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025 [78][79]. - **Apparent Consumption**: A chart shows the historical apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [81][82]. - **Downstream Demand**: Charts show the historical trends of downstream demand, including highway construction investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion, asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator working hours, and the sales of domestic excavators and road rollers from 2019 to 2025 [84][85][86][88][89]. - **Asphalt Construction Rate**: - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt**: A chart shows the historical construction rates of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [93][94]. - **By - Use Asphalt**: Charts show the historical construction rates of building asphalt and modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [96][97]. - **Downstream Construction Conditions**: Charts show the historical construction rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt, and other downstream products from 2019 to 2025 [99][100][102]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: A table shows the monthly supply - demand balance of asphalt from January 2024 to September 2025, including production, import, export, inventory, and demand [104][105].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that the planned domestic asphalt production in August 2025 is 2.413 million tons, a 5.1% decrease from the previous month and a 17.1% increase year - on - year. This week, the capacity utilization rate increased, and the refineries increased production, increasing supply pressure, but it may decrease next week [7]. - The demand side indicates that the current overall demand is lower than the historical average, although some sub - sectors'开工 rates have increased [7]. - The cost side shows that the daily asphalt processing profit is - 498.38 yuan/ton, a 19.60% increase from the previous period, and the delayed coking profit of Shandong refineries is 904.0171 yuan/ton, a 6.90% increase. Crude oil is strengthening, and it is expected to provide short - term support [8]. - The overall expectation is that the asphalt market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2510 contract fluctuating in the range of 3443 - 3487 [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In August 2025, the planned asphalt production is 2.413 million tons, with a monthly decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the capacity utilization rate is 35.2349%, a 1.797 - percentage - point increase. The sample enterprise output is 588,000 tons, a 5.38% increase, and the device maintenance volume is estimated to be 583,000 tons, a 5.35% decrease. Refineries increased production this week, increasing supply pressure, but it may decrease next week [7]. - **Demand**: The heavy - traffic asphalt 开工 rate is 32.9%, a 0.04 - percentage - point increase; the construction asphalt 开工 rate is 18.2%, unchanged; the modified asphalt 开工 rate is 17.1004%, a 1.23 - percentage - point increase; the road - modified asphalt 开工 rate is 30.5%, a 1.50 - percentage - point increase; the waterproofing membrane 开工 rate is 29.7%, a 2.20 - percentage - point increase. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 498.38 yuan/ton, a 19.60% increase, and the weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong refineries is 904.0171 yuan/ton, a 6.90% increase. Crude oil is strengthening, and short - term support is expected to strengthen [8]. - **Expectation**: The asphalt market is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2510 contract fluctuating in the range of 3443 - 3487 [9]. - **Likely Factors**: Positive factors include the relatively high price of crude oil providing some support; negative factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods and a downward trend in overall demand, along with an increased expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [12][13]. - **Main Logic**: The supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [14]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the latest values, previous values, changes, and change rates of various indicators such as different contracts' prices, weekly inventories, 开工 rates, and profits [17]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - **Basis Analysis**: On August 21, the spot price in Shandong was 3510 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract was 45 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [10]. - **Spread Analysis**: It includes the spread trends of main contracts (such as 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts), the price trends of asphalt and crude oil, the cracking spread of crude oil, and the price - ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [22][25][28][32]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market Analysis - It shows the price trends of asphalt in different regions, including Shandong, East China, and other areas [35]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: It includes the profit trends of asphalt and the profit - spread trends between coking and asphalt [38][41]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: It covers aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production volume, Ma Rui crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production, refinery asphalt production, 开工 rate, and maintenance loss volume [44][46][49][53][56][59][61]. - **Inventory Analysis**: It includes exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, and factory inventory inventory - to - sales ratio [64][68][72]. - **Import and Export Analysis**: It shows the export and import trends of asphalt and the import price - spread trend of South Korean asphalt [75][78]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: It includes petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (such as highway construction investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion), downstream machinery demand, asphalt 开工 rate, and downstream 开工 conditions [81][84][87][91][96][102]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It provides the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from January 2024 to August 2025, including downstream demand, port inventory, factory inventory, social inventory, export volume, import volume, and production volume [107][108].