逾期率上升表明，在高利率和就业增长放缓的背景下，美国家庭正面临越来越大的财务压力。数据显示，即便在关税抬高物价之前， 2025年上半年消费者支出就已出现下滑。 纽约联储数据显示，美国进入严重逾期状态的学生贷款比例为12.9%，是过去21年记录中的最高值。一旦所有这些学生贷款拖欠情况 都转为违约，逾期率将会进一步激增，届时学生贷款危机将成为焦点，或将成为迫使美联储9月降息的另一个因素。 美国学生贷款逾期额创下新高，一旦所有这些学生贷款拖欠情况都转为违约，逾期率将会进一步激增，届时学生贷款危机将成为焦 点，或将成为迫使美联储9月降息的另一个因素。 纽约联储周二在其《家庭债务与信贷季度报告》中表示，2025年4月至6月期间，约有3%的债务逾期90天以上，高于第一季度的 2.8%。其中，进入严重逾期状态（即逾期90天以上）的学生贷款比例为12.9%，是过去21年记录中的最高值。 纽约联储经济政策顾问Joelle Scally在新闻稿中表示： 当季进入严重逾期的家庭债务类型表现不一，信用卡和汽车贷款保持稳定，学生贷款持续上升，抵押贷款略有上升。 报告指出，第二季度美国家庭总债务增加1850亿美元，达18.4万亿美元，比 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for July showed a significant slowdown, with only 73,000 jobs added, well below the expected 110,000 [1][3] - The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.2%, matching expectations, and reflecting a minor increase from the previous month's 4.1% [1][3] - The healthcare and social assistance sectors added 73,300 jobs, but federal government layoffs negatively impacted overall growth, with a reduction of 12,000 federal jobs in July [6] Group 2 - Average hourly earnings for private sector non-farm employees increased by $0.12, or 0.3%, reaching $36.44, with a year-over-year growth of 3.9% [7] - The average workweek for all private non-farm employees slightly increased by 0.1 hours to 34.3 hours in July [7] - The employment data for May and June was significantly revised downwards, with May's job additions adjusted from 144,000 to 19,000 and June's from 147,000 to 14,000, indicating a total downward revision of 258,000 jobs over the two months [8] Group 3 - The recent employment data suggests a weakening hiring momentum, which may lead the Federal Open Market Committee to adopt a more dovish stance, increasing the likelihood of a rate cut in September [8] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in September surged to 73.6% following the employment report, while the probability of maintaining the current rate dropped to 26.4% [9][10] - Some Federal Reserve officials, however, maintain that a single report should not alter the overall assessment of the labor market, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive review of data [11]

Core Viewpoint - If non-farm payroll growth exceeds expectations, it may eliminate the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [1] Group 1 - Analyst Derek Halpenny from MUFG suggests that stronger-than-expected non-farm employment figures could impact Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the ongoing tension between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, particularly regarding interest rate decisions and the Fed's renovation plans [1][4][9] - President Trump criticized Powell for his handling of interest rates, claiming that the Fed's inaction has cost the country trillions of dollars and labeled the renovation project as the "most incompetent and corrupt" in history [1][4] - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a change, and indicated that the possibility of a rate cut in September is now less than 40% [4][9] Group 2 - Recent data showed that the PCE price index rose by 2.6% year-on-year in June, exceeding expectations, while the core PCE index increased by 2.8%, the highest level since February [7][8] - The new personal consumption expenditure data does not alleviate the Fed's concerns about inflation driven by tariffs, suggesting that the likelihood of a rate cut in September is low if inflationary pressures persist [8][9] - Trump's previous comments highlighted a 3% growth rate in the U.S. economy for the second quarter, urging for lower interest rates to avoid inflation and stimulate housing purchases [9]

对于本次美联储会议上出现的罕见分歧——两名理事沃勒和鲍曼投下反对票，要求立即降息25个基点，鲍威尔并未回避。他表示，这是一次"很 好的会议"，两位反对者清晰地阐述了他们的立场，并称这种坦诚的交流是积极的。 面对近期美国政府加征关税可能带来的通胀压力，鲍威尔的态度审慎。他指出，部分商品价格已反映出关税影响，但关税对整体通胀的影响仍有 待观察，目前估计核心通胀中有30%至40%来自关税。他警告称，关税的影响可能是"短暂的"，但也可能引发"更持久的"通胀变化，美联储的职 责是确保长期通胀预期保持稳定。（文馨） 鲍威尔在发布会上强调："我们尚未就9月做出任何决定。我们不会提前决定。我们将在做出决策时，综合考虑这些信息以及我们获得的其他所有 信息。"他指出，从现在到9月会议之间，决策者将获得两轮完整的就业和通胀数据，这些将是评估经济状况和风险平衡的关键。 【环球网财经综合报道】当地时间7月30日，美联储主席鲍威尔在利率会议后的新闻发布会上，为备受关注的9月政策会议定下了"观望"的基调。 他明确表示，决策者尚未就9月是否降息做出任何决定，未来货币政策将完全取决于未来几个月的经济数据。鲍威尔也回应了近期关税政策对通 胀的潜 ...

Group 1 - The core focus of the article is on the anticipation surrounding the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which is seen as a critical indicator for the market's expectations regarding a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1] - The market is holding its breath as the CPI data is expected to influence the direction of gold prices significantly [1] - The article invites participation in a contest related to the gold market, suggesting that there is heightened interest and speculation among investors regarding the implications of the CPI release [1]