The Arc De Triomphe stands while automobiles travel on the Avenue des Champs-Elysees as skyscrapers sit on the city skyline in the La Defense business district in Paris, France.LONDON — European stocks are expected to open in negative territory on Thursday as regional markets continue to see-saw this week.The U.K.'s FTSE index is expected to open 0.18% lower, Germany's DAX 0.3% lower, France's CAC 40 down 0.41% and Italy's FTSE MIB just below the flatline, according to data from IG.It's been a choppy week f ...

Market Performance - Major market indexes finished mostly higher, with the Nasdaq up +148 points (+0.66%) and the small-cap Russell 2000 closing at a new all-time high, up +24 points (+0.97%). The Dow closed slightly down by -17 points (-0.04%) [1][8]. Earnings Season - Q3 earnings season has been strong, with all major Wall Street banks reporting better-than-expected results on both revenue and earnings. Non-bank companies like Johnson & Johnson and Delta Air Lines also exceeded expectations [2]. Economic Indicators - The October Beige Book from the Federal Reserve indicated a mixed economic outlook, with slight growth reported in Boston, Philadelphia, and Richmond, while slight declines were noted in New York, Minneapolis, Kansas City, and San Francisco. Five cities reported flat conditions [3]. Consumer Spending - Overall retail consumer spending decreased, despite an increase in electric vehicle sales. Luxury retail remained strong, unaffected by economic challenges. Price increases due to tariffs varied by region, and labor stability showed signs of strain in sectors like Hospitality, Agriculture, Construction, and Manufacturing [4]. United Airlines Performance - United Airlines reported Q3 earnings of $2.78 per share, surpassing the consensus estimate of $2.64 but lower than the $3.33 reported in the same quarter last year. Revenue was $15.23 billion, slightly below the expected $15.30 billion [5][6]. Future Economic Data - Upcoming economic data releases include Weekly Jobless Claims, Retail Sales, and Producer Price Index (PPI) for September, which are currently delayed due to the federal government shutdown. The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its proposed 25 basis-point rate cut [7][9].

A solid start to earnings season is helping stocks, even as the global trade fight keeps heating up. ...

Economic Overview - The Fed Beige Book indicates that US economic activity remained stable, with employment levels unchanged, but consumer spending has slightly decreased and prices are rising, particularly input costs [1] - The ongoing US government shutdown is affecting market sentiment and delaying key economic reports, with estimates suggesting that 640,000 federal workers may be furloughed, potentially increasing jobless claims and raising the unemployment rate to 4.7% [7] Market Performance - Stock indexes showed mixed results, with the S&P 500 Index closing up by 0.40% and the Dow Jones down by 0.04%, while the Nasdaq 100 rose by 0.68% [6] - The October Empire manufacturing survey reported a significant increase in the general business conditions index, rising by 19.4 to 10.7, surpassing expectations [2] Corporate Earnings - The Q3 earnings season is underway, with 71% of the 24 S&P 500 companies that have reported so far beating forecasts, although overall profit growth is expected to be the smallest in two years at 7.2% year-over-year [8] - Notable companies such as Morgan Stanley and Bank of America reported strong Q3 earnings, with Morgan Stanley's FICC sales and trading revenue at $2.17 billion, exceeding consensus estimates [20] Sector Movements - Chipmakers and AI infrastructure stocks saw significant gains, with ASML Holding up more than 2% after reporting stronger-than-expected Q3 new orders, and Advanced Micro Devices leading the Nasdaq 100 with a rise of over 9% [17] - Gold mining stocks also performed well, with Kinross Gold and Barrick Mining rising by more than 5% and 4% respectively, following a record high in gold prices [18] Interest Rates and Monetary Policy - The market is anticipating a 98% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting on October 28-29, influenced by dovish comments from Boston Fed President Susan Collins [9][12] - The 10-year T-note yield rose to 4.038%, reflecting a hawkish sentiment due to rising input costs as noted in the Fed Beige Book [11]

Group 1: Market Overview - US stock futures rose on Wednesday, with Dow Jones Industrial Average futures up approximately 0.4%, S&P 500 contracts increasing by 0.6%, and Nasdaq 100 contracts rising by 0.8% [1] - A solid start to the earnings season is boosting market sentiment despite ongoing US-China trade tensions and a prolonged US government shutdown [1] Group 2: Company Earnings - Bank of America reported a 23% increase in profit, benefiting from a surge in major deals on Wall Street [2] - Other companies reporting include PNC Financial and Abbott Laboratories, with ASML and LVMH also showing surprise earnings beats that positively impacted their stock prices [2] Group 3: Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated that "downside risks to employment appear to have risen," suggesting potential for more interest rate cuts [3] - Investors are closely monitoring Powell's comments due to the current lack of economic data resulting from the government shutdown [3] Group 4: US-China Trade Tensions - US-China trade tensions remain a concern, with President Trump considering an embargo on cooking oil from China in response to China's reduction in US soybean purchases [4] - China's recent sanctions on five US subsidiaries of South Korean shipbuilder Hanwha have further escalated these tensions [4]

Core Insights - Delta Air Lines has updated its full-year EPS guidance to approximately $6, an increase from the previous range of $5.25 to $6.25, and expects free cash flow to be between $3.5 billion and $4 billion, up from $3 billion to $4 billion [1] - The company reported a 9% increase in premium product ticket revenue to $5.8 billion, while main cabin ticket revenue decreased by 4% year over year, although there are signs of improvement in main cabin trends [2][8] - Non-GAAP year-over-year revenue growth for Q3 was 4.1%, exceeding management's guidance of 0% to 4%, and the non-GAAP operating margin was 11.2%, above the guidance range of 9% to 11% [3] Financial Performance - Delta's Q3 earnings report showed strong performance, alleviating concerns about potential weaknesses in main cabin operations, particularly in light of the bankruptcy of budget airline Spirit Airlines [4][5] - The company experienced a rebound in business travel, which increased by high single digits in the quarter, contributing to overall positive business momentum [8][10] - Despite some regional revenue weaknesses, such as a 2% decline in Atlantic revenue and a 3% decline in Latin America, the overall financial results support a bullish outlook for Delta [12][13] Market Implications - Delta's financial results are often viewed as indicators for the broader market, particularly regarding discretionary consumer spending, although it may be misleading to generalize these results to the entire market [5][9][13] - The airline's strategy of focusing on premium offerings has been a key driver of its revenue growth, with management emphasizing the importance of premium product margins [7][11] - The disciplined approach to capacity management among airlines, including Delta, has contributed to a more favorable market environment, particularly for premium segments [10]

Market Overview - US stock futures declined as China retaliated against US shipping restrictions, raising trade-war concerns among investors [1][2] - Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell by 0.4%, S&P 500 futures dropped by 0.7%, and Nasdaq 100 futures decreased by 0.9% [1] Trade Relations - China imposed sanctions on five US-linked subsidiaries of South Korean shipbuilding firm Hanwha Ocean in response to US barriers [2] - An investigation has been launched by China regarding the impact of a US probe on its domestic shipping industry [2] Earnings Season - The earnings season commenced with major banks such as JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and Wells Fargo reporting results [3] - Analysts anticipate rising profits from Wall Street banks, which have seen stock rallies throughout the year [3] Economic Reports - Key economic reports are delayed due to a government shutdown, affecting both investors and the Federal Reserve's economic outlook [4] - The consumer inflation report, initially expected on Wednesday, has been postponed to October 24, with other reports on retail sales and producer prices also likely delayed [4] Federal Reserve Insights - The absence of economic reports increases the significance of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the NABE annual meeting [5]

Core Viewpoint - Stocks have recovered much of the losses incurred during Friday's trade, indicating a potential stabilization in the market as earnings reports are set to take center stage [1] Group 1 - The recovery in stock prices suggests a positive sentiment among investors following a period of volatility [1] - Upcoming earnings reports are anticipated to significantly influence market trends and investor decisions [1]

Market Overview - The Dow dropped 879 points, S&P fell 2.71%, and NASDAQ declined 3.56%, indicating a significant market sell-off that may not be over yet [2] - Despite the recent downturn, the market has experienced substantial gains over the past few years, suggesting a need for investors to consider taking profits [2] Trade Relations - President Trump's trade policy with China has deteriorated, with the cancellation of a meeting with President Xi and the announcement of 100% additional tariffs on Chinese goods [3][4] - The relationship, previously described as good, has worsened, impacting many Chinese businesses and leading to export controls on critical software [4] Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - Prior to the market decline, there was a focus on potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve to stimulate the economy, with smaller banks expressing concerns about high rates stifling growth [5] - The expectation of a resolution in trade tensions could influence market sentiment positively, although current tariffs are expected to impact both U.S. and Chinese economies [6][7] Upcoming Earnings Reports - The upcoming earnings season is critical, with major companies like BlackRock, Wells Fargo, and Goldman Sachs expected to report, with Goldman Sachs anticipated to have the biggest upside surprise [10] - Other notable reports include Johnson & Johnson, which is expected to perform well despite legal challenges, and Domino's, which may miss expectations [12][13] Sector Insights - The technology sector will be highlighted at Salesforce's Dreamforce conference, where insights on the impact of tariffs on tech companies will be sought [8][14] - The retail sector, particularly Dollar Tree, is under pressure due to tariffs, with expectations of negative impacts on their financials [15] Transportation and Economic Indicators - JB Hunt and United Airlines are set to report, providing insights into the freight and travel sectors, which are indicators of broader economic health [16] - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is expected to provide a positive outlook, reflecting demand in the semiconductor industry [17] Investment Strategy - The current market volatility presents opportunities for investors to capitalize on companies that may benefit from rate cuts or are undervalued due to broader market declines [7] - The importance of retail participation in the stock market is emphasized, with a focus on maintaining investor interest despite market fluctuations [18]

Group 1: Government Shutdown and Economic Impact - The government shutdown continues with no resolution in sight, affecting around 750,000 federal employees and delaying key economic reports [3][11] - The shutdown has led to the postponement of important inflation reports, which could impact market sentiment [3][10] Group 2: China's Crackdown on Tech Companies - China is intensifying its scrutiny of American tech firms, with Qualcomm being investigated for alleged anti-monopoly violations, resulting in a stock decline of over 2% [2] - Beijing is also enforcing stricter controls on Nvidia AI chips, mobilizing customs officers to prevent major tech firms from purchasing these products [4][5] Group 3: Commodity Prices and Market Reactions - Oil prices fell by approximately 1.6% following a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, reducing market risk premiums [6] - Gold prices have fluctuated but remain above $4,000, indicating ongoing investor interest amid geopolitical tensions [7][48] Group 4: Consumer Sentiment and Economic Indicators - Preliminary consumer sentiment for October is forecasted to drop to 54, reflecting concerns over inflation and the job market [10] - The dollar has shown some strength against major peers, hovering near a two-month high, although analysts suggest this may not be sustainable due to ongoing economic risks [12][13] Group 5: Upcoming Earnings Season - The upcoming earnings season is anticipated to be significant, with major banks like JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs set to report [52] - Analysts are preparing for potential market reactions based on earnings reports, emphasizing the importance of understanding key financial metrics [20][21] Group 6: Chocolate Price Increases - Chocolate prices are rising significantly due to a 12.9% yearly drop in global cocoa output and new tariffs on key producers, leading to price hikes from major brands [45][46] - The cocoa market is expected to continue expanding at around 5% annually, indicating sustained demand despite higher prices [46] Group 7: Stock Market Movements - Levi Strauss raised its full-year outlook but saw a stock decline due to concerns over margin pressure and tariffs [32] - Regetti's stock surged over 80% this quarter, driven by speculation around AI infrastructure spending, although analysts remain cautious about cash burn [35] - Samsung's stock has risen over 30% this month, reflecting a successful push into chips and AI infrastructure [37]