Funding & Budget - Britain's statistics organization is facing more real-terms cuts to its core funding [1] Concerns & Risks - Financial pressures were one of the main factors behind a crisis in the country's economic data [1]

Inflation & Tariffs - Core CPI annualized basis came in a little hotter than expected, at the highest since February [2] - Sequential core inflation and underlying inflation data are showing an uptick after two years of moving closer to the Fed target [3] - Tariff pass-through is having a moderate impact and is likely to grow in the months ahead [3] - Import-sensitive categories like furniture, appliances, and car parts are seeing a shift towards higher inflation [4] Economic Growth & Labor Market - Recent economic data shows some labor market weakening and slowing in economic activity and growth [4] - There are medium-term questions about the effect of tariffs on both inflation and economic growth/employment [4] Consumer Spending & Impact on Working Class - Tariffs disproportionately affect low and moderate-income households [8] - Wage growth is slowing down at the bottom of the income distribution [9] - Consumer spending has been almost flat in the aggregate over the last six months, likely weaker at the bottom of the distribution [9] Healthcare & Student Loans - Premiums for those getting healthcare through Affordable Care Act exchanges will increase, in some cases by 10-20% starting in 2026 [11] - The turning off of the student loan pause is already showing its way in some of the credit score data [12] - There are challenges in the bottom half of the distribution that policymakers will need to be attuned to [13] Data Integrity - It's critical that members of the US Senate interrogate the nominee and press him on whether he can commit to providing credible nonpartisan data completely free from political interference [5] - Business leaders and market participants should make their voices heard about the importance of US economic data being respected [6]

Data Accuracy and Political Influence - Concerns arise over potential political manipulation of Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data, particularly the jobs numbers and Consumer Price Index (CPI), due to the appointment of a nominee perceived as politically aligned [1][5][6] - The industry emphasizes the importance of data accuracy and nonpartisanship in BLS reporting, as businesses, governments, and politicians rely on this data for decision-making and evaluation [2][8][9] - The industry expresses worry that redefining data or temporarily cancelling reports could mask economic weaknesses and hinder effective monetary and fiscal policy responses [14] Potential Consequences of Data Manipulation - The industry highlights that unreliable data could negatively impact business decisions related to production, location, and understanding consumer behavior [12][13] - Concerns exist that skipping or blending data releases, especially around midterm elections, could lead to misleading economic perceptions [16][18] - The industry notes that disruptions to long-term data series undermine their usefulness for understanding economic trends [15] Calls for Action and Alternative Solutions - The industry suggests that business leaders should publicly advocate for the protection of accurate and credible data [11] - The industry mentions the development of alternative private sector data sets to provide checks and balances on official numbers [15] - The industry emphasizes the need to support statisticians who have been working to protect data series [15]

Fed Policy & Market Impact - The market reacts best when the Fed reacts appropriately to economic data, balancing economic risks with potential inflation acceleration from tariffs [5] - The market anticipates the Fed to cut rates, but the bond market's reaction could impact the Fed's decision [3][4] - There's uncertainty about whether the Fed will implement a strong 50 basis point cut due to the uncertain impact of tariffs [7] Economic Weakening - The economy is showing signs of weakening, including revisions to payrolls, weak construction spending, and corporate bankruptcies at a 10-year high in June [6] - Challenger layoff reports indicate economic concerns [6] Market Vulnerability & Risk Appetite - The market is vulnerable due to built-up froth and high risk appetite [7] - A Bank of America fund manager survey in July showed the fastest move up in three-month risk appetite since the early 2000s, reaching a five-month high [8] - Cash levels into July are low, suggesting built-in bullishness in a weakening economy expecting a Fed bailout [9] Investment Strategy - A more defensive posture is recommended, paying attention to valuation as highly valued stocks are being punished on slight misses [10][11] - Investors should look for less expensive stocks, selectively in defensive and cyclical sectors that could benefit from an economic recovery if the Fed stabilizes things [11][12]

Data Transparency & Accuracy Concerns - The presentation of potentially unauditable census data by a former economic advisor raises concerns about data accessibility and verification for media and the public [2][3][4] - The lack of transparency in the data's calculation methods, particularly regarding inflation adjustment (PCE vs CPI), is alarming [5][6] - The White House presented a chart showing median income rising since January 20th, but the data's source and calculation methods are not publicly available for verification [4] Political & Institutional Context - The firing of the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) chief adds to concerns about the integrity and independence of government data [2][7] - Steven Moore, a former economic advisor, presented data not publicly available, raising questions about data access and potential bias [2][3] Economic Indicators & Interpretation - The report focuses on monthly estimates of net change in real median household income, a key indicator of economic well-being [4] - The importance of adjusting for inflation when calculating real median household income is emphasized [5]

Economic Data & Policy - Concerns arise regarding the timing of BLS data releases in relation to Fed meetings and presidential elections, potentially influencing policy decisions [3][4] - Speculation exists regarding the integrity of government data, including jobs data, although no direct influence was observed during the speaker's tenure [5][6] Trade & Tariffs - Tariffs remain in place for various countries, including Japan (15%) and Switzerland (39%) [7] - The administration's trade policy aims to improve the balance of trade, potentially through tariffs or mutual reductions [8][9] - A tariff rate of approximately 30% is considered a significant threshold, potentially hindering trade relations [12] China Trade Deal - A major policy shift from China is unlikely before their upcoming Party Congress [10] - Restrictions on critical materials from China are not encouraging for trade negotiations [11]

Let's bring in Peter Baker, chief White House correspondent for the New York Times and an MSNBC political analyst. Former Republican Congressman Carlos Carbelloo is back. And joining me here in studio, NBC News business and data correspondent Brian Chung.Peter, as you wrote, the irony is that Donald Trump has never been especially wedded to facts, although now he's suggesting he's concerned that we aren't getting them. Uh with absolutely no evidence that anything about these numbers is made up, his top econ ...

to be a political party agnostic. Steve, thank you very much. Here with us now at post nine Renaissance Macro's head of economic research Neil Dutta.Neil writing this weekend quote the US public statistics represent the gold standard, calling them into question. Just because they tell you something you don't like undercuts market confidence. Do you feel like the market confidence has been undercut at this juncture.>> Well, it takes time to undercut confidence. I mean, I think the risk for the white House is ...

You do think the setup is largely about September and how they line that up. And you point out that some of the data has been reassuring. Some of it does point to maybe some below potential growth, right.Yeah. Look, um, we know what's happening this week, right. The Fed is not going to cut.They're going to stick to the wait and see through the summer approach, make the decision in September. Though the two Trump appointees, Waller and Bowman, will, I think, descent in favor of an immediate cut. So yeah, the ...

Meanwhile, President Trump saying he's going to announce a new head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics this week. He made the comments before boarding Air Force One last night. >> We'll be announcing a new statistician sometime over the next 3 4 days.We had no confidence. I mean, the numbers were ridiculous what she announced. >> President's comments coming, of course, in the wake of criticism over his firing of the head of the BLS after Friday's worst thanex expected jobs numbers.President believes that BLS ...