Government Shutdown Resolution - US government shutdown ends with a deal to keep operations running through January 30th [1] - The agreement reverses federal worker layoffs and funds key programs [2] Market Impact - Markets barely flinched during the shutdown, with the S&P 500 climbing 2% [2] - The shutdown shaved off approximately 8/10 of a percentage point from quarterly GDP [3] Economic Fallout - The shutdown resulted in roughly $55 billion in lost output [3] - Goldman Sachs estimates job growth slowed to 50,000 in October, down from approximately 85,000 in September [3] - Concerns over slowdown in job growth and stretched valuations still linger [4]

So, what should you really be paying attention to. Joining us now with more is Chris Krueger. He is managing director of the Washington Research Group at TD Cowan.Always, always a must readad. So, Chris, you are dialed in as much as anybody. You're down there.Is this government shutdown going to end by the end of the week. >> Yes. Uh, it might even end probably ends tomorrow night.U, the House Rules Committee is is meeting uh in a couple hours. Uh the votes should start tomorrow around 400 p. m.Uh once the ...

Group 1 - The S&P 500 is set to open lower as the market anticipates a wave of economic data following a strong rally the previous day [1] - Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 33 points, or 0.1%, while S&P 500 futures are falling 0.2% and Nasdaq 100 futures are dropping 0.4% [1] - A spending package to end the government shutdown has been passed by the Republican-led Senate with some Democratic support, moving to the House for a final vote [2]

Investors and Fed officials need to prepare for the release of crucial economic data as lawmakers take steps that could end the longest government shutdown in US history https://t.co/2sfPfeYUCE ...

Labor Market Analysis - Preliminary estimates indicate a decrease in initial jobless claims by 13,000 to 219,000, the lowest in a month [2] - Continuing claims increased by 11,000 to 1.96 million, the highest since August [3] - Alternative data suggests no surge in job losses despite the government shutdown [4] - Regional Fed surveys indicate a pickup in job growth [4] Inflation Trends - Regional Fed surveys show prices ticking down slightly, but remaining elevated [4] - An index tracking CPI shows an acceleration in prices coinciding with tariffs, but the increases have flattened out [5] Data Reliability and Future Outlook - Alternative data is considered good but not comprehensive and hasn't been fully tested [6] - The government shutdown may delay the release of key economic reports, particularly the October report for November [8] - Exploration of alternative data sources, like the Troy Leka index, is considered valuable even after the government reopens [9][10][11] - The Troy Leka index effectively tracks jobs and inflation and could potentially improve [11] - The federal government layoffs could impact jobs data [13]

Inflation & Interest Rate - Headline inflation estimate is 31%, highest since February [1] - The market has largely priced in an interest rate cut at the upcoming Fed meeting [2] - The key focus is whether tariffs are being passed on to higher goods prices, and what happens with services inflation [2][3] - There's a divide among Fed officials regarding concerns about the labor market versus the stickiness of inflation [5][6] - The Fed's guidance on future rates is expected to be limited due to a lack of comprehensive data [9] - A December rate cut is anticipated, especially if the government reopens and data becomes available [14][15] Economic Outlook - Workforce reductions are occurring across different parts of the economy [4] - AI investments are significantly powering the market, with the Atlanta Fed GDP tracker indicating almost 4% growth for the quarter [10] - The economy may be bifurcated, with growth driven by a few sectors and higher-income consumers, making it prone to shocks [11][12][13] - The labor market is expected to weaken, potentially driving more rate cuts into Q1 of the following year [15]

Economic Data & Policy - The Federal Reserve's access to timely economic information is being limited due to the federal shutdown, as they have stopped receiving private-sector jobs data from an independent provider [1]

Market Outlook - U.S. stock futures indicated a positive opening as Wall Street anticipates significant developments in the U.S.-China trade war, corporate earnings, and economic data [1] - President Trump's softened rhetoric on China contrasts with his previous aggressive stance, which may influence market sentiment [1][2] Trade War Developments - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is scheduled to meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng to continue trade discussions ahead of a meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping [4] - Recent comments from Trump, including "Don't worry about China," have led to a rebound in stock prices [2] Economic Indicators - The consumer price index report for September is expected to show a 0.4% monthly increase and a 3.1% annual rise, up from 2.9% in August [5] - The yield on the 10-year Treasury remained stable at 4.011%, while the U.S. dollar showed mixed performance against the euro and yen [3] Corporate Earnings - The third-quarter earnings season is gaining momentum, with major companies like Netflix, Texas Instruments, Tesla, IBM, and Intel set to report their results [4][5] - Big banks have already reported strong earnings, setting a positive tone for the upcoming reports from tech companies [4]

Core Viewpoint - Officials are divided regarding the economic outlook, and a lapse in funding has suspended data releases that could help reconcile these disagreements [1] Group 1 - The economic outlook remains contentious among officials, indicating a lack of consensus on future trends [1] - The suspension of data releases due to funding issues hampers the ability to address and resolve differing opinions on the economic situation [1]

Alternative Data Analysis - The private data serves as a supplement to governmental data, which is considered the gold standard [1] - The private data is more effective as a supplement rather than a replacement for primary data sources [1] - The effectiveness of private data varies across sectors, with better substitutes in the employment space compared to inflation and economic activity [1] - Different private data providers employ varying universes and levels of rigor in their data analysis [1] Economic Outlook and Data Concerns - The September employment report is considered a very important report for decision-making [2] - The September CPI and PPI reports are expected to be available [2] - Potential data collection disruptions could pose challenges, particularly concerning October data [2]