Market Overview - Stock futures showed positive movement, indicating continued investor optimism at the start of the trading week on October 27 [1] - Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by approximately 290 points or 0.6%, while S&P 500 futures gained around 0.7%, and Nasdaq 100 futures rose nearly 0.9% [8] - All three major indices hit record highs last Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average adding roughly 1% (472.51 points), S&P 500 ticking up 0.79%, and Nasdaq Composite rising 1.15% [6][8] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve made its first rate cut since December 2024 in September, lowering the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00% to 4.25% [1][8] - Markets widely anticipate a second 25 basis point cut in the upcoming October 29 Federal Open Market Committee meeting to address a slowing jobs market despite persistent inflation [2][8] - Inflation rose modestly to 3.0% in September, up from 2.9% in August, which remains above the Fed's 2% goal [8] US-China Trade Situation - The US-China trade situation has shown signs of de-escalation, which has buoyed risk appetite across global markets, leading to a surge in Asian equities [5][8] - Analysts cite the calming of trade tensions alongside the Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cuts as critical factors underpinning positive market sentiment [5][8] Earnings and Economic Outlook - Technology stocks are leading gains, with key players like Microsoft and Alphabet Meta set to release their third-quarter results this week, drawing particular interest from investors [8] - Market watchers remain cautiously optimistic as favorable inflation readings combined with strong earnings growth appear to sustain the current bullish momentum [6][8] - The Federal Reserve's policies in the coming weeks will continue to be a focal point for Wall Street as investors weigh the balance between economic growth and inflation control [7][8]

Economic Outlook - The upcoming week will feature significant inflation data from Australia, the euro zone, and purchasing manager indexes from China, alongside rate decisions in Chile and Colombia [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by a quarter point, with concerns about employment and inflation influencing this decision [2][8] - The Bank of Canada is also anticipated to reduce its benchmark rate to 2.25% despite recent positive inflation and job reports [10] Central Bank Actions - North America is likely to see major monetary policy actions, with the Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada both expected to implement rate cuts [5] - The Bank of Japan is predicted to maintain its current rate, while the European Central Bank is not expected to ease further at its upcoming meeting [4][17] - Chile's central bank may delay rate cuts due to persistent inflation above target levels, with potential cuts pushed to December [24] Regional Economic Indicators - In the euro zone, growth is projected to be minimal, with a forecast of just 0.1% growth in the third quarter, influenced by US tariffs [18][19] - Germany's Ifo business gauge is expected to show slight improvement, while France's growth is forecasted to slow to 0.2% in the third quarter [19] - In Asia, inflation and trade data will be crucial for assessing the region's recovery, with Australia and Japan's central banks closely monitoring price pressures [12][13] Trade and Political Developments - US President Trump's trade policies will be under scrutiny during his meetings with Asian leaders, particularly with Chinese President Xi Jinping [6] - Political instability in France may have limited immediate economic impact, but ongoing negotiations for a budget could affect market sentiment [20]

Market Sentiment & Trade - Market views any positive developments in China trade favorably [1] - Market had shifted focus away from trade until recent trade tensions resurfaced, impacting AI-related sectors due to rare earth material concerns [2] - Market sentiment is currently focused on a strong economy, positive earnings, and potential rate cuts [3] - China trade headline risk is present, but not viewed as material risk based on CH's calm reaction [6][7] Momentum & Rotation - Market experienced a momentum unwind, potentially nearing its end, with the first negative month in seven and declines in MTUM names [4][9] - Despite the momentum unwind, the overall market remains up, indicating a rotational move rather than outright distribution [10] - Momentum shakeout hasn't significantly impacted broader market sectors; some sectors like healthcare and discretionary are improving [11][12] - Debate exists whether the momentum unwind is over or still in progress, with Morgan Stanley suggesting it's only halfway through [9] Sector Performance & Economic Indicators - Defensive sectors, like healthcare, are outperforming in October, potentially due to profit-taking and rotation into underperforming assets [5] - Banks are showing slight weakness, but overall, leaning into strength is still favored [8] - High yield CDX remains relatively calm despite bankruptcies, indicating no significant deterioration in credit markets or consumer stocks; consumer stocks may be reaccelerating [7] - Utilities' performance is tied to power and AI, diminishing its reliability as a defensive sector indicator [14] Market Breadth & Global Markets - Market breadth remains relatively strong, with a significant percentage of S&P 500 companies above their 200-day moving average [15] - Global markets, including China, Japan, and Europe, are reaching new highs, indicating no widespread negative impact from the momentum unwind [12]

Group 1 - The meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy has created a tense atmosphere, impacting the tone of Ukraine peace talks [1] - Amazon's AWS experienced an outage that disrupted parts of the internet, highlighting vulnerabilities in cloud services [1] - Apple is approaching a record valuation of $4 trillion, driven by strong iPhone sales [1] Group 2 - China's economy has reported its slowest growth in a year, coinciding with renewed trade tensions [1]

Core Viewpoint - BHP Group remains optimistic about its iron ore sales despite challenges posed by China's ban on local steelmakers purchasing from the company, indicating a resilient demand for its key commodity this year [1][3]. Group 1: Company Performance - BHP reported a record amount of iron ore mined over the last three months, with full-year production guidance unchanged at 258 million to 269 million tonnes [2][6]. - Sales figures have remained consistent with the previous year, highlighted by a 5% increase in sales of higher-value lump iron ore [6]. - Total copper production increased by 4% to 494,000 tonnes, with full-year guidance also remaining at two million tonnes [6]. Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the news of the China iron ore boycott, BHP's stock initially dropped below $42 but has since recovered, climbing by 5.2% in the last trading week [4][5]. - Investors appear to respond positively to BHP's stance on the situation with China, interpreting the company's comments as a sign of confidence [5]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - BHP's chief, Mike Henry, noted that while a deceleration in growth is expected in the second half of 2025, China's GDP growth is still projected at 5% for the year [4]. - Overall macroeconomic signals for commodity demand are described as resilient, with global growth forecasts improving [3].

Core Viewpoint - China's economic growth in the third quarter slowed to 4.8%, the weakest pace in a year, due to a prolonged property slump and trade tensions, prompting calls for more stimulus to support economic momentum [1]. Economic Data Summary - Q3 GDP growth was 4.8% year-on-year, matching forecasts and down from 5.2% in Q2 [5] - Q3 GDP growth was 1.1% quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted, exceeding the forecast of 0.8% and slightly up from a revised 1.0% in Q2 [5] - September industrial output increased by 6.5% year-on-year, surpassing the forecast of 5.0% and up from 5.2% in August [5] - September retail sales rose by 3.0% year-on-year, in line with forecasts but down from 3.4% in August [5] - Fixed asset investment from January to September decreased by 0.5% year-on-year, below the forecast of a 0.1% increase, and down from a 0.5% increase from January to August [5] - Property investment from January to September fell by 13.9% year-on-year, worsening from a 12.9% decline from January to August [5] Analyst Commentary Summary - Analysts suggest that while the GDP number is decent, domestic activity remains weak, indicating a need for further measures to boost demand [2][3] - There is an expectation that Beijing will meet its 2025 growth target of around 5%, with little need for broad fiscal stimulus at this time [2] - Targeted additional fiscal stimulus is anticipated, with the Q3 GDP number possibly being the low point in the current cycle [4]

Group 1 - Asia-Pacific markets opened higher as investors awaited economic data from China [1] - Analysts forecast China's GDP growth to slow to 4.8% in Q3 from 5.2% in Q2 [1] - Japan's Nikkei 225 rose by 1.6% and the Topix increased by 1.43% at the open [1] Group 2 - South Korea's Kospi gained 0.36% after reaching a record high for three consecutive days [2] - The small-cap Kosdaq climbed 1.13% [2] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index futures were higher at 25,863 compared to the previous close of 25,247.1 [2] - Australia's S&P/ASX 200 started the day 0.1% lower [2]

Economic Growth & AI Impact - US economic growth is slowing, decreasing from 25% in 2024 to under 2% [1][2] - AI's contribution to economic growth has increased significantly, rising from approximately 10% to 31% [2] - The actual economic growth filtering down to ordinary Americans is projected to drop to 11% in the first half of 2025 [2] Wage Disparity & Income Inequality - Wage growth for the bottom quartile is lagging behind the top quartile, with the bottom seeing approximately 35% annual growth compared to over 55% for the top [3][4] - Rising income inequality is observed, reversing the trend from 2016 where wages for the bottom quartile were increasing faster [3][4] Stock Market & Wealth Distribution - The stock market has experienced extraordinary growth, with increases of 15% or more in five out of the last six years [5] - The top 20% of Americans have increased their consumption by 50% since the beginning of 2020, while other income groups have only increased by about 25%, matching inflation [6][7] - The top 10% of Americans account for 50% of all consumption in the US [7] Job Market Trends - The job market is showing signs of roughness despite overall economic expansion, influenced by tariffs, economic uncertainty, and AI [8][9] - Small businesses are losing jobs, while large companies are responsible for virtually all job creation in the last four months [10] - Job creation is concentrated in leisure, hospitality, education, and health sectors, while other sectors like finance and IT are experiencing job losses [11][12] Unemployment & Economic Sentiment - Long-term unemployment (27 weeks or more) is rising, with over a quarter of the unemployed now considered long-term unemployed, reaching the highest percentage since 2016 [13] - A significant percentage of Americans believe the economy is getting worse, reflecting the struggles of average, everyday Americans [14]

Core Viewpoint - Ongoing discussions aim to lower tariffs, which could positively impact the economy [1] Group 1 - Sanjay Malhotra indicated that negotiations are currently taking place to reduce tariffs [1] - Successful tariff reductions are expected to provide a boost to economic growth [1]

Economic Outlook - The trade tensions between the United States and China pose a significant risk to Thailand's economic growth, with the central bank's deputy governor indicating limited room for further rate cuts [1][2] - The Bank of Thailand expects growth rates of 2.2% for the current year and 1.8% in 2026, which are below the potential growth rate of 2.7% [3] Monetary Policy - Despite sluggish economic growth, the central bank decided to maintain the key interest rate at 1.5%, which is historically low, rather than implementing cuts [4] - The deputy governor noted that lending rates have only dipped below this level three times in history, indicating limited maneuverability in monetary policy [4] Economic Constraints - The central bank is focusing on financial measures, such as debt restructuring schemes and loan guarantees for households and SMEs, rather than solely relying on funding conditions [5] - Recent data showed negative inflation for six consecutive months, driven by lower energy and food prices, but this does not necessitate a change in the central bank's inflation target of 1-3% [6]