Trade Policy & Tariffs - The current US effective tariff rate stands at 15%, increasing to 17% after recent trade agreements, significantly higher than the pre-administration level of 2% or less [9] - The imposition of tariffs is viewed as taxes on American businesses and consumers, ultimately leading to higher prices and reduced spending [14][17] - The US trade policy is causing a reshaping of global supply chains, trade relationships, and geopolitical dynamics [11] - There is concern that the US President's approach to trade deals lacks binding commitment and can be unilaterally altered, making it difficult for other countries to offer meaningful concessions [6][7] Economic Impact - The tariffs are expected to negatively impact economic growth and employment in the latter half of the year [17][18] - Consumers are starting to feel the impact of tariffs through increased costs, as exemplified by unexpected tariff charges on imported goods [15][16] Federal Reserve & Monetary Policy - The US President is expected to exert pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, potentially compromising the Fed's independence and its broader economic objectives [21][22]

As Republicans work to pass President Trump's mega bill in the House, our next guest has spoken out against it, calling it a quote nightmare for working families. Joining us right now is Democratic governor of Maryland, West Moore in the House at the table. Good morning to you, sir. Good morning.This thing seems like a fa plea. I mean, Hakeim Jeff is speaking. We'll see how long he can keep that going.Uh, but when he stops, it sounds like this is going to happen. Uh, you have been very critical of it. In so ...

It is time for money power politics. The analysis by the nonpartisan CBO was crystal clear. Trump's spending mega bill will balloon the US deficit by $3.3% trillion and cut health care for millions.But White House officials are working overtime to convince Americans that it'll do the exact opposite. Watch this. This bill protects Medicaid, as I laid out for you, for those who truly deserve this program.the needy, pregnant women, um children, um sick Americans who physically cannot work. This bill strengthen ...

Economic Outlook - Despite the trade truce, economic numbers appear soft, necessitating a broader perspective [1] - Macro policy improvements in September of last year, along with front-loaded activity in Q1, led to solid data in Q4 of last year and Q1 of this year [2] - The underlying economic momentum is moderating due to trade tariff issues with the US and increasing external uncertainty [2][3] - The baseline expectation is for sequential growth of the Chinese economy to slow from approximately 66% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 to around 35% in Q2, and further to 3% in Q3 [3] - PMI numbers align with expectations of moderating economic momentum [4] Sector Performance - Diverging trends exist across different sectors, with China's exports to the US down 40% in April and May [5] - Sectors receiving policy support, such as training subsidies and equipment upgrades, are performing well [6] - The housing sector continues to be a drag on the economy and has not yet bottomed out [6] - Consumer sentiment outside of policy support areas remains at a historical low [7] Policy Implications - Domestic and consumption support are crucial for policy focus this year [7] - Subsidies for consumer durables and autos have shown some impact, but their effect will fade by year-end [7] - Further policy support, particularly for services consumption, is needed [8]

Tax and Spending Bill - The administration aims to pass the tax and spending bill, potentially leading to significant economic changes [1][2] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates the Senate bill will increase the deficit by $33 trillion (3300 billion) from 2025 to 2034, a figure the National Economic Council Director disagrees with [3][4] - The administration projects that achieving 3% growth, instead of 18% (1.8%), would add $4 trillion to revenue, potentially making the bill a deficit reducer [4] - The administration plans to send discretionary spending cuts to the Senate, potentially amounting to $160 billion this year [5] Economic Growth and Impact - The administration believes the bill relies on the economy moving up to 3% growth, driven by factors like no tax on overtime for 90 million American hourly workers [6][7] - The Council of Economic Advisers projects the bill will increase income for the typical American family by $10000 [8] Energy Policy - The administration supports an "all of the above" approach to energy production, including coal, natural gas, oil, and nuclear, to support AI and other sectors [10][11] - The administration prioritizes grid security, suggesting that solar and wind energy must pass a market test and not compromise grid reliability [15] Trade and International Tax - The administration expects digital services taxes around the world to be removed as part of ongoing trade negotiations [20] - The G7 countries have agreed not to have the so-called pillar 2 tax (global minimum tax) [21] - The administration has double-digit trade deals with frameworks nearly agreed to, with potential tariff rate adjustments to be determined [23]

It's very important. If we don't have it, there's a 68% tax increase. If we don't have it, you know, the debt ceiling extension is very important.They gave a debt ceiling. The Republicans gave a debt ceiling because of the importance of doing it. They did that for the good of the country and Republicans voted for that.[Music] We're cutting 1.7%. Let's see. We're cutting Yeah.1.7% trillion. Think of it. I think I just saw the number a little while ago.$1.7% trillion. But we can grow our country so much more ...

[Music] Now for today's power player segment. Time is running out for senators to reach a deal on President Trump's tax plan. The president wants the big beautiful bill on his desk before July 4th.As the deadline closes in, it's still not clear to markets what the bill's economic impact will be. The White House Council of Economic Adviserss estimates growth from the new tax plan could slash up to $2.3% trillion from the deficit. But the Congressional Budget Office found the mega bill would add $2.4% trillio ...

Mr. . Chair, I wonder if you could describe for us some of those scenarios. How do you get to a place I'm noticing that the uncertainty levels in your forecast are very high. How do you get to a place where you have the confidence in the outlook for say inflation andor growth or the unemployment rate. How many months does it take and what do you want to see in the data to get to that level of confidence to actually reduce rates off the restrictive level.So, it's it's very very hard to say when that will hap ...

Economic Outlook - The economy is growing, with unemployment at 42% [3] - The economy is growing at an estimated rate of 15% to 2% [3] - Sentiment has increased from very low levels, but remains depressed [3][4] - The current monetary policy allows for timely responses to economic changes, with careful monitoring of data [7] Inflation & Tariffs - Inflation has cooled to roughly 2% despite tariffs [1] - There are concerns that tariffs could lead to demand destruction and slower growth, potentially keeping inflation low [7] - The likelihood of lower inflation due to tariffs is uncertain, requiring several months of cool inflation data to confirm [7] Housing Market - The housing market faces both short-term and long-term challenges, including a housing shortage and high rates [4] - Restoring price stability and maintaining a strong labor market are seen as the best approaches to support the housing market [5] Job Market - Overall labor force participation, wages, and job creation are at healthy levels [5] - There may be a very slow, continued cooling in the job market, but it is not currently troubling [6] Monetary Policy & Rate Paths - Rate paths are data-dependent and subject to high uncertainty [9][10] - Rate paths involving cuts suggest an expectation that cuts will become appropriate [9]

boosting the richest by $12,000 a year. Joining us right now is Phil Swagel. He's the director of the Congressional Budget Office.And Phil, let's talk through some of the criticism you've received. Russ Vought said on X that this bill reduces deficits by $1.4% trillion. When you adjust for the CBO's one big gimmick, not using a realistic current policy baseline.Caroline Leavitt said that the CBO assumes long term GDP growth of an anemic 1.8%. And that's absurd. And then you had President Trump himself sayin ...