Core Insights - A key measure of inflation, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 2.7% in December, matching November's increase and aligning with forecasts [2] - The core CPI, excluding food and gas prices, increased by 2.6%, which was below the median forecast of 2.8% [2] - The overall inflation rate showed signs of cooling, providing some relief to household budgets strained by previous cost-of-living increases [1][4] Economic Implications - Tamer inflation reports may allow the Federal Reserve to consider lowering interest rates to support the struggling job market [3][10] - Despite inflation remaining above the Fed's target of 2%, the flat inflation trend is seen as an improvement compared to previous months [3] - The CPI report was the first unaffected by the government shutdown, which had previously impacted data collection [8][9] Price Trends - Used car prices dropped by 1.1% monthly, and gas prices fell by 0.5%, contributing to the overall decrease in inflation [4] - Core goods prices remained flat for the first time since May, indicating a muted impact from tariffs [5][6] - Food prices rose by 0.7%, marking the highest increase since September 2022, while shelter prices increased by 0.4% [6] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its current interest rate range of 3.5% to 3.75% at its next meeting, with discussions ongoing about the balance between combating inflation and supporting the job market [10][11] - Analysts predict that the December CPI report will not significantly alter the Fed's stance on interest rates, with a pause in rate cuts anticipated [12] - Future inflation reports may become less influential on market movements as other factors, such as political pressures, come into play [14][15]

Core Viewpoint - Bond yields are expected to rise this year, despite the potential for at least two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1 - The rise in bond yields could pose challenges, as even a small increase can create problems for the market [1]

Group 1: Bitcoin Market Dynamics - Bitcoin has regained its position above the $90,000 mark, rising from approximately $89,200 to around $92,000, supported by significant spot trading activity exceeding $39 billion [1] - Analysts project that Bitcoin could reach between $103,000 and $105,000 within the next 3-4 weeks, following its escape from a three-month downward trend [5] - The weekly RSI indicator suggests potential for further gains, with Bitcoin testing the $93,500 level, which is critical for confirming a breakout from the established downtrend [5][6] Group 2: Employment Data and Federal Reserve Implications - Nonfarm payrolls increased by 50,000 positions last month, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.4%, indicating a recovery post-government shutdown [2] - Despite a weak hiring period, companies have largely avoided significant layoffs, with corporate layoff announcements decreasing and hiring intentions rising [3] - Market analysts suggest that the current labor market conditions indicate moderation rather than deterioration, influencing the Federal Reserve's policy decisions [4]

Market Overview - Bitcoin eased to around $91,000 as Asian markets opened slightly higher, with traders awaiting the US nonfarm payrolls report and a potential Supreme Court ruling on President Trump's tariffs [1][4] - Asian markets showed modest gains, with Shanghai rising 0.58%, the SZSE Component adding 0.36%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng gaining 0.40% to 26,254.50, while the China A50 slipped 0.16% [1][5] Cryptocurrency Market - Investors in the cryptocurrency market adopted a wait-and-see approach, with prices moving in a tight band after a volatile start to the year [2] - Bitcoin's consolidation range for January is expected to fluctuate between $88,000 and $95,000, indicating a cautiously upward bias rather than a deep bearish reversal [4] Economic Indicators - The market remains sensitive to global growth and US rate expectations, particularly as payroll data could influence the Federal Reserve's decisions on interest rate cuts [5][6] - Fitch raised its US growth outlook, estimating GDP expansion of 2.1% in 2025 and 2.0% growth in 2026, reflecting economic data that was delayed due to last year's government shutdown [8] Cryptocurrency Prices - Current cryptocurrency prices include Bitcoin at $91,102 (up 0.3%), Ether at $3,111 (down 1.3%), and XRP at $2.12 (down 1.8%), with the total crypto market cap at $3.19 trillion (down 0.2%) [9]

Core Insights - CD rates are currently higher than historical averages, with the best rates reaching 4.1% APY offered by LendingClub and Sallie Mae Bank [2] Group 1: Current CD Rates - CD rates have been declining since last year due to the Federal Reserve cutting its target rate [2][5] - Several financial institutions, particularly online banks, are offering competitive rates of 4% APY and above [2] Group 2: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve has cut its target rate three times in late 2024 by a total of one percentage point, with further cuts anticipated in 2026 [3][4] - The correlation between the federal funds rate and deposit interest rates suggests that as the Fed lowers rates, CD rates are likely to decrease as well [5] Group 3: Opening a CD - The process for opening a CD account includes researching rates, choosing an account that meets financial needs, preparing necessary documents, completing the application, and funding the account [6]

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin experienced a peak of over $126,000 in 2025 but ended the year down about 5%, underperforming the S&P 500, which rose by more than 16% [1][8]. Group 1: Bitcoin's Performance and Market Sentiment - Bitcoin's decline in 2025 marked its first drop since 2022, when it fell by 65%, indicating growing investor concerns about its high valuation [3]. - The initial days of 2026 have shown positive momentum for Bitcoin, with prices climbing above $90,000, raising questions about its potential to reach previous highs [1][3]. Group 2: Potential Catalysts for Recovery - A significant catalyst, such as the announcement of a new Federal Reserve chairman willing to cut rates, could positively influence investor sentiment towards Bitcoin [4]. - Favorable government policies, including the establishment of a Bitcoin reserve by the White House, could also support Bitcoin's recovery [5]. Group 3: Limitations to Bitcoin's Rally - Economic concerns, including a rising unemployment rate of 4.6% in November, may dampen retail investors' appetite for risky assets like Bitcoin [6]. - Bitcoin's recent drop in value suggests it may not be perceived as a safe asset, contrasting with gold's performance, which continued to rally [7]. - If economic conditions do not improve, Bitcoin's value may not surge, even with supportive government policies for the crypto market [9].

Market Performance - Canadian equities are closing out their second-best year this century, with the S&P/TSX Composite Index soaring more than 40% from an April 8 low and ending the year with a 28% advance, marking the biggest year since 2009 [3][4] - The index achieved a record 63 new closing highs during the year, driven by a steady upward trend over the final seven months [3] Sector Contributions - Mining and bank stocks were central to the rally, with the materials subindex nearly doubling due to significant rallies in gold, silver, copper, and palladium [4] - The financials group jumped more than 30%, while tech companies like Shopify Inc. and Celestica Inc. also contributed to the market's performance [4] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while the rally in precious metals may continue to support the S&P/TSX Composite, it may not reach the same levels seen in the past year [6] - Central banks are expected to continue cutting rates, which could provide further support for gold prices and the overall market [5][6]

After a year with double-digit gains across the major indexes, light New Year’s Eve trading extended a late‑December pullback today. The S&P 500 (SNPINDEX:^GSPC) fell 0.74% to 6,845.50, the Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX:^IXIC) lost 0.76% to 23,241.99, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDEX: ^DJI) slipped 0.63% to 48,063.29. Market movers Chinese EV makers Nio (NYSE:NIO) and Xpeng (NYSE:XPEV) were among notable Nasdaq decliners today. Nio erased some of yesterday's gains, but still finished the we ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold and silver experienced significant volatility at the end of the year, with both metals reaching all-time highs before facing a sharp selloff driven by margin requirements and market speculation [1][3][17]. Price Movements - Gold prices fell over 4% on Monday to approximately $4,355 per ounce after peaking near $4,565 late last week, but rebounded to the $4,385 to $4,400 range on Tuesday [1][7][8]. - Silver saw even more drastic fluctuations, dropping nearly 9% on Monday to just above $73 per ounce after trading above $84 over the weekend, then surging up to 10% intraday on Tuesday [2][10][11]. Market Dynamics - The initial selloff was triggered by CME Group's decision to raise margin requirements on precious metals futures, leading to forced selling during a period of low liquidity [3][4]. - The volatility in the market is exacerbated by the thin trading environment typical of late December, where prices can swing dramatically on minimal conviction [7][16]. Speculative Behavior - The rapid price movements indicate a speculative environment, particularly for silver, which has outpaced gold significantly this year, with gains more than double those of gold at one point [11][16]. - Market participants noted that the rebound in prices suggests underlying demand remains strong, particularly from investors looking for entry points after the selloff [18]. Annual Performance - Despite recent volatility, both gold and silver are on track for their best annual gains since 1979, with silver up approximately 150% to 160% and gold up about 65% to 70% for the year [17].

Industry Overview - Gold prices have surged to new all-time highs, trading above $4,500 per ounce, marking a year-to-date gain of approximately 71%, the strongest annual performance since 1979 [1][2] - Factors driving this rise include strong central bank purchases, robust investor inflows into gold-backed ETFs, and geopolitical tensions that enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2][3] Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) - Agnico Eagle Mines operates as a senior gold producer with mines in Canada, Australia, Finland, and Mexico, focusing on regions with lower political risk [4] - In 2024, Agnico produced approximately 3.4 million ounces of gold, with reserves providing about 15 years of mine life at current rates [4] - The company reported all-in sustaining costs (AISC) around $1,373 per ounce in Q3, maintaining costs in the second quartile of the global curve, allowing for margin expansion as gold prices rise [5] - Agnico's net cash grew to $2.16 billion, and long-term debt was reduced by $400 million to $196 million, with Moody's upgrading its debt profile to A3 from Baa1 [6] - Analysts highlight Agnico's operational efficiency and focus on low-risk mining areas as key contributors to its strong performance during the current gold rally [7] Barrick Mining (B) - Barrick Mining is one of the largest gold and copper producers globally, with a portfolio that includes six Tier One gold assets capable of producing over 500,000 ounces annually at low costs [8] - Despite year-over-year production declines due to asset sales and unplanned downtime, Barrick's gold production rose 4% sequentially, maintaining full-year guidance of 3.15 million to 3.5 million ounces [9] - Higher gold prices resulted in record operating cash flow of $2.4 billion and free cash flow of $1.5 billion, enhancing shareholder returns through a 25% dividend hike in Q3 and stock buybacks [10][11] - Barrick's growth projects in Nevada and Africa are advancing on schedule, positioning the company for sustained production, while its mix of gold and copper exposure adds leverage to commodity uptrends [11] - Despite its stock tripling in 2025, Barrick remains a buy to capture substantial upside in gold [12]