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Markets Set to Stay Shaky Ahead of Thanksgiving: 3-Minute MLIV
Youtube· 2025-11-21 10:58
Talk me through what your view of the price. Actually, just over the last 24 hours, it's been worth kind of one of the history books. Yeah.I mean, certainly I think it all comes from a place of unease. It comes from the fact that you've got very high valuations. Yesterday, obviously, we got the labour market report for September.Now that I don't think was particularly concerning, Yes, unemployment rate ticked up, but it was because of a rising participation rate and that seems like it's unlikely to repeat. ...
Stocks Get AI Boost as Bonds Rise After Jobs Data
Youtube· 2025-11-20 22:12
Core Insights - There is a prevailing sense of fear among clients despite a strong air story and enthusiasm for alternatives like gold and crypto [1][2] - The AI narrative remains robust, indicating a significant focus on technology's impact on the economy [2][6] - Fixed income has shown strong returns in 2023, leading to discussions about its role as a hedge and the viability of traditional investment strategies like the 60/40 portfolio [4][5] Investment Strategies - There is ongoing hesitation regarding fixed income as a hedge, particularly after the events of 2022 [3] - Rebalancing discussions are crucial in the current innovation cycle, where volatility may arise from overenthusiasm in AI-driven markets [6][7] - Monthly rebalancing schemes can lead to significant turnover, indicating a trend among retail investors to actively manage their portfolios [9] Market Valuation - The U.S. market is perceived as expensive relative to other markets, with high valuations across various sectors [11] - Research indicates that modestly high valuations are not predictive of returns, emphasizing the need to focus on extreme valuation moments [11][12] - Most sectors are currently viewed as having extreme valuations, warranting caution in investment decisions [12]
Stocks Get AI Boost as Bonds Rise After Jobs Data
Bloomberg Television· 2025-11-20 22:12
We have such a great air story going on right now. But when I think about the questions that I get from clients, there is still a lot of consternation out there. I think there's fear.I mean, the tariff moment was a moment of great fear, I think, broadly for a lot of clients. And then there's still a lot of enthusiasm around alternatives like gold and crypto and people concerned about the U.S. future. So I think people are in financially, but mentally and emotionally, there's still some hesitation and reserv ...
Adaptability Will Be Crucial in Fixed Income in 2026
Etftrends· 2025-11-20 14:13
Core Insights - Fixed income ETFs, particularly Neuberger Berman Total Return Bond ETF (NBTR) and Neuberger Berman Short Duration Income ETF (NBSD), have shown decent performance in 2023, but past performance does not guarantee future results [1][5] - Investors in fixed income need to be agile and adaptable in 2026 due to changing Federal Reserve policies and economic conditions [2][4] Market Outlook - The future of interest rate cuts is uncertain, with inflation remaining stubborn and potential US tariff policies possibly increasing prices in 2026, indicating a shift towards structurally higher inflation [3][6] - The Federal Reserve is not expected to lower rates soon, but there is speculation about potential leadership changes that could influence future rate decisions [4][5] Investment Strategy - A flexible, diversified, and dynamic approach to bond investing is essential moving into 2026, as traditional passive fixed income funds may not perform as well [6][7] - Higher volatility in the fixed income market has created a wider performance gap, emphasizing the need for a global and flexible investment strategy [7]
VGMS: Cross-Sectional Multi Sector ETF
Seeking Alpha· 2025-11-19 13:50
Group 1 - The Vanguard Multi-Sector Income Bond ETF (VGMS) was launched in June 2025, expanding the fixed income investment options available in the market [1] - Binary Tree Analytics (BTA) specializes in providing transparency and analytics for capital markets instruments, focusing on closed-end funds (CEFs), exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and special situations [1] - BTA aims to deliver high annualized returns with a low volatility profile, leveraging over 20 years of investment experience [1]
固定收益部市场日报-20251119
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-11-19 08:03
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The LGFV space remained stable, with higher-yielding issues tightening due to HF demand, and overall two-way flows skewed towards buying from RMs, especially for onshore AAA-guaranteed CNH issues [3] - BTSDF is on track to achieve its FY25 revised revenue target based on the 9M25 run-rate. The conviction level of BTSDF 9.125 07/24/28 is now lower, so the recommendation changes to neutral, and the switch is made to FOSUNI 8.5 05/19/28 for better carry [4] - Bangkok Bank's new BBLTB 30s and BBLTB 35s are expected to have FVs of T+80 - 85bps and T+95 - 100bps, respectively [4][8] - H&H's credit profile is improving, and it is on track to achieve its FY25 revised revenue target. Its near-term refinancing risk is manageable [16][17][21] Summary by Directory Trading Desk Comments - Yesterday, the MEITUA curve and TW lifer NSINTW/FUBON widened by 2 - 5bps. There were two-way flows on CCAMCL Perp and block two-way trading on CDBFLC 35. Chinese and global funds sold HK bank SHCMBK/DAHSIN/BNKEA/NANYAN T2s [2] - The NWDEVL complex rose 1.4 - 2.9pts. BTSDF 9.125 07/24/28 was 0.1pt lower. In Chinese properties, VNKRLE 27 - 29 were down by 0.4 - 1.0pt, and FUTLAN 28/FTLNHD 26 - 27 were 0.1pt lower [2] - Japanese/Korean IG spaces were up to 5bps wider on financial and corporate bonds, but flows were balanced on JP bank FRNs. SOFTBK and RAKUTN bonds were down by 0.9 - 1.3pts. Yankee AT1s and insurance subs dropped by 0.3 - 0.5pt. In SEA, OCBCSP/BBLTB T2s traded 3 - 5bps wider, and ACPM 5 1/8 Perp lowered by 1.3pts. There were two-way flows on BSFR 35 in the Middle Eastern space [2] Macro News Recap - On Tuesday, S&P (-0.83%), Dow (-1.07%), and Nasdaq (-1.21%) were lower. The latest initial jobless claims were +232k, higher than the market expectation of +223k. UST yield was lower, with 2/5/10/30 year yields at 3.58%/3.70%/4.12%/4.74% [7] Desk Analyst Comments - Bangkok Bank plans to issue 5yr and 10yr Reg S/144A senior unsecured USD bonds. The FV of the new BBLTB 30s and BBLTB 35s is expected to be T+80 - 85bps and T+95 - 100bps, respectively, considering its existing curve [8] BBLTB Analysis - Bangkok Bank is the largest bank in Thailand by total assets as of Sep'25, with a presence in 14 international markets. Its loan book is more diversified geographically than local peers, and it has the largest exposure to corporate and lowest to SME and retail [11] - In 9M25, Bangkok Bank showed resilient profitability, stable asset quality, and strong capital adequacy. NIM declined to 2.81% from 3.05% in 9M24, and the cost-to-income ratio fell to 44.7% from 46.3%. ROA/ROE increased to 1.12%/8.99% from 1.03%/8.54% in 9M24 [12] - In 3Q25, Bangkok Bank's asset quality stabilized, with credit costs down to c1.5% from c1.6% in 2Q25. The gross NPL ratio rose to 3.3% as of Sep'25 from 3.2% as of Jun'25, mainly due to a shrink in the loan book. NPL coverage ratio was 294% as of Sep'25 [13] - Bangkok Bank's capital buffers remain ample, with a standalone CET1 ratio of 19.6% as of Sep'25, well above the 8.0% regulatory minimum. The net reduction in CAR from redeeming USD750mn AT1 was mitigated by issuing USD1bn T2 bonds in Mar'25 [15] BTSDF Analysis - Based on the 9M25 run-rate, BTSDF is on track to achieve its FY25 revised revenue target. The conviction level of BTSDF 9.125 07/24/28 is now lower after moving up c5pts since the buy recommendation in Jan'25, so the switch is made to FOSUNI 8.5 05/19/28 [4][16] H&H Analysis - H&H's 9M25 revenue increased by 12.0% yoy to RMB10.8bn, with all business segments growing. Mainland China remained the largest market, contributing 71.0% of revenue in 9M25, up from 65.9% in 9M24 [17] - The ANC segment grew 5.2% yoy in 9M25, driven by Swisse's performance in mainland China, especially in cross-border e-commerce and Douyin channels [18] - The BNC segment grew 24.0% yoy in 9M25, mainly due to a 35.2% yoy increase in mainland China IMF sales, reaching a market share of 16.4% as of Sep'25. The decline in pediatric probiotic and nutritional supplements narrowed [19] - The PNC segment grew 8.2% yoy in 9M25, due to Zesty Paws' growth in North America, partially offset by Solid Gold's decline in North America [20] - As of Sep'25, H&H held RMB1.7bn of cash, up from RMB1.6bn as of Dec'24. It has been proactive in debt management, and its near-term refinancing risk is manageable, with no major debt maturities until 2027 [21] - H&H targets to reduce net debt/adj. EBITDA to 3.7x by Dec'25 from 3.9x as of Jun'25 and considers an 80% RMB share of total debt as an optimal currency mix [22] Offshore Asia New Issues - New issued: The Hong Kong Mortgage Corporation issued USD1000mn 5yr bonds with a 3.875% coupon at T+20 [25] - In the pipeline: Bangkok Bank plans to issue 5yr and 10yr bonds at T+115 and T+130; the Government of Indonesia plans 5yr and 10yr bonds at 4.8% and 5.3%; SMBC Aviation Capital Finance plans a 10yr bond at T+145 [26] News and Market Color - There were 161 credit bonds issued onshore yesterday with an amount of RMB193bn. Month-to-date, 1,188 credit bonds were issued with a total amount of RMB1,299bn, a 35.4% yoy increase [27] - S&P upgraded Marubeni Corp by one notch to A- from BBB+ with a stable outlook [27] Company News - NWD increased the cap on exchange offers to USD1.79bn from USD1.6bn, added an early tender date on 25 Nov'25 and an extra early payment date on 1 Dec'25 [33] - PDD Holdings 9M25 revenue was up 8.7% yoy to RMB307.9bn (cUSD43.4bn) [33] - POSCO's trading arm will acquire KRW1.3tn (cUSD860mn) worth of shares in Singapore's AGPA [33] - SoftBank's USD6.5bn bid for Ampere secured HSR early termination [33] - A former TSMC executive was probed by Taiwan over potential technology transfer and received TWD147bn (cUSD4.7bn) in government subsidies over 21 months [33] - Moody's placed West China Cement under review for upgrade following a bond deal and tender offer [33] - Xiaomi 3Q25 revenue was up 22.3% yoy to RMB113.1bn (cUSD16bn) [33]
固定收益部市场日报-20251118
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-11-18 11:59
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The Asia IG space was 1 - 2bps wider this morning, with better selling on KR/JP/HK T2s [4]. - Tactical buyers continued to pick up cheaper offers in higher - yielding LGFV names in preparation for next year, while lower - yielding CNH issues remained under selling pressure [3]. - The report maintains a buy rating on PCORPM 7.35 Perp due to better carry, trading liquidity, smooth access to diverse funding channels, and notably lower refinancing pressure [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading Desk Comments - There was better selling on Japanese names such as NOMURA/JERA/KUB/MITCO/MIZUHO/MUFG. Small selling on the BBLTB curve occurred due to news of new USD issues. PBs were buying Asia/Yankee FRNs with wider spreads. Mixed two - way flows were seen on AU/KR lower - spread names. Chinese onshore accounts were buying FRNs of leasing/security houses. Macau gaming names had price changes ranging from unchanged to 0.2pt lower, LIHHK 26 was 0.5pt higher, the NWDEVL complex was unchanged to 0.9pt lower, LASUDE 26 was down by 0.7pt. In Chinese properties, VNKRLE 27 was 0.2pt lower while VNKRLE 29 was 0.2pt higher, and some other property papers had price drops [2]. Analyst Comments - PCORPM's net leverage improved due to lower net working capital. Its revenue declined by 10% yoy in 9M25, mainly due to lower sales volume and selling price. However, gross profit increased by 15% yoy, EBITDA grew by 11% yoy, and net profit surged 37% yoy. Free cash flow jumped 361% from 9M24 to PHP47bn. The report maintains a buy on PCORPM 7.35 Perp [8][9][11]. - WESCHI proposes to issue a new USD bond to fund a tender offer for WESCHI 26 at 101.238. Holders of WESCHI 26 who subscribe to the new bond may get priority in the tender offer and preferential allocation. The offer expires on 28 Nov '25 5pm CET, and WESCHI 26 was 0.4pt higher this morning [4]. Top Performers and Underperformers - Top performers include PTTTB 4 1/2 10/25/42 (price 88.7, change 0.6), CRNAU 9 1/4 10/01/29 (price 92.4, change 0.6), CQSXGU 6.95 08/07/28 (price 99.1, change 0.6), LIHHK 4.8 06/18/26 (price 94.9, change 0.5), ROADKG 6 03/04/29 (price 19.5, change 0.5) [5]. - Top underperformers include NWDEVL 5 1/4 PERP (price 45.1, change - 0.9), TENCNT 3.68 04/22/41 (price 85.5, change - 0.9), NWDEVL 6 1/4 PERP (price 44.7, change - 0.8), LASUDE 5 07/28/26 (price 68.1, change - 0.7), NWDEVL 10.131 PERP (price 48.3, change - 0.6) [5]. Macro News Recap - On Monday, S&P (-0.92%), Dow (-1.18%), and Nasdaq (-0.84%) were lower, and UST yield was lower. The 2/5/10/30 - year yield was at 3.60%/3.72%/4.13%/4.73% [7]. Offshore Asia New Issues - Priced: Guilin ETDZ Holding Group issued a 3 - year USD40mn bond with a 5.0% coupon at 5.0% and is unrated [15]. - Pipeline: Sichuan Kaizhou Development Holding plans a 3 - year bond with a 6.5% coupon and is unrated; The Hong Kong Mortgage Corporation plans a 5 - year bond at T + 50 with a rating of Aa3/AA+/- [16]. News and Market Color - 98 credit bonds were issued onshore yesterday with an amount of RMB120bn. Month - to - date, 1,027 credit bonds were issued with a total amount of RMB1,115bn, a 27.9% yoy increase. S&P upgraded Bharti Airtel to BBB from BBB - and Del Monte Pacific 2QFY26 sales rose 10% yoy to USD234.9mn [17]. - Danantara will restore all grounded Garuda Indonesia aircraft by next year. Geely Automobile seeks a USD1.5bn - equivalent one - year loan for ZEEKR take - private. S&P downgraded Longfor to BB - from BB. NWD announced early tender results of its USD bonds and perps. Rio Tinto pauses a AUD215mn (cUSD140mn) BioIron green steel project. Transurban launches tender offers for TCLAU 3.375 03/22/27 and EUR bonds due 2028 and 2030 [23].
Spread Compression Makes These Bond ETFs Appealing
Etftrends· 2025-11-17 21:19
"Emerging-market (EM) credit has been one of the best-performing segments of the market this year, maintaining that momentum in the third quarter as spreads narrowed 40 basis points,†the report added. With a declining dollar, international assets have been garnering more investor attention this year. This is translating into appeal for emerging markets (EM) debt. EM saw its credit spreads narrowing by 78 bp through September 30, 2025 relative to the same time last year. "Fixed income credit has performed we ...
Growth of Municipal ETFs, Grayscale Drop After IPO Filing | ETF IQ 11/17/2025
Bloomberg Television· 2025-11-17 18:53
SCARLET: WELCOME TO "ETF IQ." I AM SCARLET FU. KATIE: AND I AM KATIE GREIFELD. SCARLET: KATIE: LET'S GET TO THE BIGGEST STORIES RIGHT NOW.STOCKS WAVERING AS THEY PREPARE FOR NVIDIA EARNINGS AND THE DELAYED JOBS REPORT SET TO BE RELEASED LATER THIS WEEK. SCARLET: WE WILL SPEAK TO JOHN MAIER OF JPMORGAN ASSET MANAGEMENT ON THE FOURTH QUARTER GUIDANCE ON ETF'S. KATIE: PROJECT GRAYSCALE TESTS THE MARKETS AS IT FILES.ALL THAT AND MORE COMING UP. ERIC BALCHUNAS IS HERE WITH US NOW LOOKING AT THE FLOWS. WHAT HAVE ...
Gabelli Launches New Exchange-Traded Fund: Gabelli High Income ETF (GBHI)
Globenewswire· 2025-11-17 13:00
Core Viewpoint - Gabelli Funds, LLC has launched the Gabelli High Income ETF (GBHI), focusing on high total returns and capital preservation through investments in high-yield corporate bonds and other securities [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Overview - The Gabelli High Income ETF is actively managed and aims to provide attractive income opportunities while maintaining disciplined risk management [2]. - The fund will primarily invest in upper-tier high yield corporate bonds, along with select investment-grade, hybrid, or equity-related securities [2]. - The investment strategy emphasizes a bottom-up, research-driven approach, targeting companies with strong balance sheets and consistent cash flow [2]. Group 2: Management and Strategy - Wayne Plewniak, with over 35 years of industry experience, manages the fund and leads Gabelli's fixed income platform [4]. - The ETF will maintain an average credit quality of BB- and an effective duration target between two and five years under normal market conditions [3]. - The fund aims to avoid over-leveraged or distressed issuers, ensuring a focus on capital preservation [3]. Group 3: Company Commitment - The launch of GBHI is part of Gabelli's strategy to expand its ETF suite and enhance access to its fixed income capabilities [3]. - The firm is dedicated to providing efficient and transparent ETF vehicles to a broader audience [3].