需要强调的是，这一修复并非情绪驱动，而是建立在增长结构逐步清晰、业务可预期性提升的基础之 上。Swisse的体系化运营，使健合集团的估值逻辑开始从"修复假设"转向"数据验证"。 对于投资者而言，后续关注重点或不再只是短期增速，而在于：这一结构是否能够持续、子品牌能否稳 定贡献增量，以及体系优势是否进一步转化为盈利能力。这些因素，将决定健合集团估值中枢能否真正 抬升。 资本市场对健合集团的长期关注点，正在从历史问题转向增长确定性本身。而Swisse中国业务的变化， 是这一转向中的关键变量。 经过十年发展，Swisse已完成从市场导入到本土化体系成熟的转变，并逐步形成"主品牌稳态 + 子品牌 增量"的双层增长结构。这一结构意味着：即便行业整体需求波动，集团核心业务仍具备一定的防御属 性，同时保留向上弹性。 从经营层面看，Swisse在中国市场的持续增长，为集团账面商誉提供了更扎实的业绩支撑；从市场反馈 看，2025年以来健合集团股价累计涨幅超过40%，明显跑赢此前阶段的市场预期。 ...

11月18日，健合（H&H）国际控股有限公司公布 2025 年前九个月未经审核营运数据。报告期内集 团实现营收 108.05 亿元，同比增长 12.3%，成人营养及护理（ANC）、婴幼儿营养及护理（BNC）、 宠物营养及护理（PNC）三大核心业务均保持增长，经营现金流稳健。中国市场仍为主要收入来源，占 比 71.0%，同比提升 20.6%；扩张市场同比增长 19.0%，其中亚洲九个市场增幅达到 64.4%。 截至前三季度，三大业务单元中的营养补充品收入占比 64.5%，依旧是主要增长驱动力。维生素、 草本及矿物补充剂和宠物补充品分别同比增长 6.0% 和 14.2%。 ANC 业务实现营收 52.4 亿元，同比增长 6.0%。Swisse 在中国市场增长 15.7%，电商渠道是主要推 动力，跨境电商销售同比增长 23.1%，抖音渠道同比增长 77.7%。在澳新地区，本地市场同比增长 8.9%，新品与品牌活动带动零售表现；出口业务受代购下滑影响同比下降。多个扩张市场维持双位数 增长，新加坡和意大利部分细分品类继续位列市场前列。 PNC 业务前三季度营收 15.9 亿元，同比增长 8.2%。宠物消费结构升级推动行 ...

Core Viewpoint - H&H International Holdings (01112) reported strong Q3 performance with a 28.1% year-on-year revenue increase to HKD 3.79 billion, driven by exceptional growth in the BNC segment, particularly in infant formula [1][2] Performance Summary - For the first nine months of 2025, revenue reached HKD 10.81 billion, reflecting a 12% year-on-year increase, with Q3 revenue at HKD 3.79 billion, up 28.1% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations primarily due to infant formula growth [1][3] Segment Performance - **BNC (Infant Formula)**: Q3 revenue surged 90.6% to HKD 1.47 billion, with infant formula sales up 104% to HKD 1.23 billion. The market share in China's ultra-premium infant formula segment increased to 17.3% due to ongoing investments in maternal and e-commerce channels [2] - **ANC (Adult Nutrition)**: Q3 revenue grew 5.6% (6.3% on a comparable basis) to HKD 1.8 billion, with a 15.7% year-on-year increase in the China region, now accounting for 70.6% of total revenue. Cross-border e-commerce and Douyin channels showed significant growth [2] - **PNC (Pet Nutrition)**: Q3 revenue increased 7.3% to HKD 510 million, with steady performance in both China and North America [2] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve high single to low double-digit revenue growth in 2025, with all three segments maintaining positive growth trends. Profit margins are anticipated to remain healthy, supported by ongoing financial cost optimization [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been raised by 5.1% and 4.3% to HKD 670 million and HKD 790 million, respectively. The current trading multiples are 12x and 10x for 2025 and 2026 P/E, with a target price of HKD 17.7, indicating a 29% upside potential [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The LGFV space remained stable, with higher-yielding issues tightening due to HF demand, and overall two-way flows skewed towards buying from RMs, especially for onshore AAA-guaranteed CNH issues [3] - BTSDF is on track to achieve its FY25 revised revenue target based on the 9M25 run-rate. The conviction level of BTSDF 9.125 07/24/28 is now lower, so the recommendation changes to neutral, and the switch is made to FOSUNI 8.5 05/19/28 for better carry [4] - Bangkok Bank's new BBLTB 30s and BBLTB 35s are expected to have FVs of T+80 - 85bps and T+95 - 100bps, respectively [4][8] - H&H's credit profile is improving, and it is on track to achieve its FY25 revised revenue target. Its near-term refinancing risk is manageable [16][17][21] Summary by Directory Trading Desk Comments - Yesterday, the MEITUA curve and TW lifer NSINTW/FUBON widened by 2 - 5bps. There were two-way flows on CCAMCL Perp and block two-way trading on CDBFLC 35. Chinese and global funds sold HK bank SHCMBK/DAHSIN/BNKEA/NANYAN T2s [2] - The NWDEVL complex rose 1.4 - 2.9pts. BTSDF 9.125 07/24/28 was 0.1pt lower. In Chinese properties, VNKRLE 27 - 29 were down by 0.4 - 1.0pt, and FUTLAN 28/FTLNHD 26 - 27 were 0.1pt lower [2] - Japanese/Korean IG spaces were up to 5bps wider on financial and corporate bonds, but flows were balanced on JP bank FRNs. SOFTBK and RAKUTN bonds were down by 0.9 - 1.3pts. Yankee AT1s and insurance subs dropped by 0.3 - 0.5pt. In SEA, OCBCSP/BBLTB T2s traded 3 - 5bps wider, and ACPM 5 1/8 Perp lowered by 1.3pts. There were two-way flows on BSFR 35 in the Middle Eastern space [2] Macro News Recap - On Tuesday, S&P (-0.83%), Dow (-1.07%), and Nasdaq (-1.21%) were lower. The latest initial jobless claims were +232k, higher than the market expectation of +223k. UST yield was lower, with 2/5/10/30 year yields at 3.58%/3.70%/4.12%/4.74% [7] Desk Analyst Comments - Bangkok Bank plans to issue 5yr and 10yr Reg S/144A senior unsecured USD bonds. The FV of the new BBLTB 30s and BBLTB 35s is expected to be T+80 - 85bps and T+95 - 100bps, respectively, considering its existing curve [8] BBLTB Analysis - Bangkok Bank is the largest bank in Thailand by total assets as of Sep'25, with a presence in 14 international markets. Its loan book is more diversified geographically than local peers, and it has the largest exposure to corporate and lowest to SME and retail [11] - In 9M25, Bangkok Bank showed resilient profitability, stable asset quality, and strong capital adequacy. NIM declined to 2.81% from 3.05% in 9M24, and the cost-to-income ratio fell to 44.7% from 46.3%. ROA/ROE increased to 1.12%/8.99% from 1.03%/8.54% in 9M24 [12] - In 3Q25, Bangkok Bank's asset quality stabilized, with credit costs down to c1.5% from c1.6% in 2Q25. The gross NPL ratio rose to 3.3% as of Sep'25 from 3.2% as of Jun'25, mainly due to a shrink in the loan book. NPL coverage ratio was 294% as of Sep'25 [13] - Bangkok Bank's capital buffers remain ample, with a standalone CET1 ratio of 19.6% as of Sep'25, well above the 8.0% regulatory minimum. The net reduction in CAR from redeeming USD750mn AT1 was mitigated by issuing USD1bn T2 bonds in Mar'25 [15] BTSDF Analysis - Based on the 9M25 run-rate, BTSDF is on track to achieve its FY25 revised revenue target. The conviction level of BTSDF 9.125 07/24/28 is now lower after moving up c5pts since the buy recommendation in Jan'25, so the switch is made to FOSUNI 8.5 05/19/28 [4][16] H&H Analysis - H&H's 9M25 revenue increased by 12.0% yoy to RMB10.8bn, with all business segments growing. Mainland China remained the largest market, contributing 71.0% of revenue in 9M25, up from 65.9% in 9M24 [17] - The ANC segment grew 5.2% yoy in 9M25, driven by Swisse's performance in mainland China, especially in cross-border e-commerce and Douyin channels [18] - The BNC segment grew 24.0% yoy in 9M25, mainly due to a 35.2% yoy increase in mainland China IMF sales, reaching a market share of 16.4% as of Sep'25. The decline in pediatric probiotic and nutritional supplements narrowed [19] - The PNC segment grew 8.2% yoy in 9M25, due to Zesty Paws' growth in North America, partially offset by Solid Gold's decline in North America [20] - As of Sep'25, H&H held RMB1.7bn of cash, up from RMB1.6bn as of Dec'24. It has been proactive in debt management, and its near-term refinancing risk is manageable, with no major debt maturities until 2027 [21] - H&H targets to reduce net debt/adj. EBITDA to 3.7x by Dec'25 from 3.9x as of Jun'25 and considers an 80% RMB share of total debt as an optimal currency mix [22] Offshore Asia New Issues - New issued: The Hong Kong Mortgage Corporation issued USD1000mn 5yr bonds with a 3.875% coupon at T+20 [25] - In the pipeline: Bangkok Bank plans to issue 5yr and 10yr bonds at T+115 and T+130; the Government of Indonesia plans 5yr and 10yr bonds at 4.8% and 5.3%; SMBC Aviation Capital Finance plans a 10yr bond at T+145 [26] News and Market Color - There were 161 credit bonds issued onshore yesterday with an amount of RMB193bn. Month-to-date, 1,188 credit bonds were issued with a total amount of RMB1,299bn, a 35.4% yoy increase [27] - S&P upgraded Marubeni Corp by one notch to A- from BBB+ with a stable outlook [27] Company News - NWD increased the cap on exchange offers to USD1.79bn from USD1.6bn, added an early tender date on 25 Nov'25 and an extra early payment date on 1 Dec'25 [33] - PDD Holdings 9M25 revenue was up 8.7% yoy to RMB307.9bn (cUSD43.4bn) [33] - POSCO's trading arm will acquire KRW1.3tn (cUSD860mn) worth of shares in Singapore's AGPA [33] - SoftBank's USD6.5bn bid for Ampere secured HSR early termination [33] - A former TSMC executive was probed by Taiwan over potential technology transfer and received TWD147bn (cUSD4.7bn) in government subsidies over 21 months [33] - Moody's placed West China Cement under review for upgrade following a bond deal and tender offer [33] - Xiaomi 3Q25 revenue was up 22.3% yoy to RMB113.1bn (cUSD16bn) [33]

Industry Overview - The global functional food market is entering a structural growth phase, with a projected market size of 1.09 trillion yuan in 2024 and expected to exceed 1.46 trillion yuan by 2030 [1] - Key growth drivers include vitamins, probiotics, and protein powders, with the Chinese market expected to reach approximately 231.1 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of over 5% [1] Demographic Trends - The dual trends of an aging population and younger consumer preferences are driving market growth, with the elderly population boosting categories related to bone and cardiovascular health, while Generation Z favors convenient and fun supplement options [1] Company Analysis: Swisse - Swisse, under the Health and Happiness Group, demonstrates strong structural adaptability by investing in three strategic paths: efficacy, premiumization, and snackification [1] - The brand focuses on specific functional areas such as anti-aging, gut health, and bone health, while also launching convenient products like gummies and effervescent powders [1] - Financial results indicate that Swisse's ANC business revenue grew by 5.9% year-on-year to 3.44 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [1] Investment Perspective - Swisse's strategic positioning reflects a proactive response to industry trends rather than a short-term performance spike [1] - The ability to maintain a balanced product structure in the face of rational competition in the functional food sector will determine its contribution to the overall valuation of the Health and Happiness Group in the medium to long term [1]

Core Insights - The Chinese consumer market is shifting from linear growth to a multi-dimensional coexistence, with different generations (X, Y, Z) having distinct preferences and needs [1] - The company, 健合集团, adopts a "whole family nutrition" strategy to address consumer diversification, utilizing brands like 合生元 and Swisse to meet varying health demands across generations [1] - Financial performance supports the robustness of this strategy, with revenue reaching 7.02 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%, and a gross margin of 62.5%, up by 1.6 percentage points [1] Financial Performance - The three main business segments show growth: ANC increased by 5.9%, BNC by 2.9%, and PNC by 8.6% [1] - The net operating cash flow amounted to 999.8 million yuan, with cash reserves of 1.83 billion yuan [1] Business Strategy - The multi-business collaboration structure provides the company with balance during industry fluctuations, with adult and pet segments supporting growth as maternal and infant demand recovers [1] - The "multi-brand + multi-scenario" model offers robust support in the context of consumer diversification, indicating a shift in brand competition focus from "single product explosion" to "structural balance" [1]

Core Viewpoint - H&H International Holdings (01112) reported a 5% year-on-year increase in total revenue for H1 2025, amounting to 7.019 billion yuan, with adjusted comparable EBITDA decreasing by 3% to 1.101 billion yuan, and adjusted comparable net profit increasing by 5% to 363 million yuan. The company is expected to see EPS of 0.79, 1.05, and 1.30 yuan for 2025-2027, with a "Buy" investment rating assigned by Huaxin Securities [1]. Revenue and Profitability - The company experienced a year-on-year revenue increase, with a notable improvement in gross margin. The gross margin for H1 2025 rose by 2 percentage points to 62.53%, driven by higher margins in adult and pet nutrition and care products, along with product mix optimization [1]. - The proportion of sales and distribution/administrative expenses relative to revenue increased by 3 percentage points and decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 42.33% and 5.68%, respectively, due to changes in the channel mix for adult nutrition and care products in mainland China and investments in new market expansion strategies [1]. - Adjusted comparable EBITDA margin and adjusted comparable net profit margin decreased by 1 percentage point and 0.02 percentage points to 15.68% and 5.17%, respectively, primarily due to high base effects from the previous year and increased selling expenses [1]. Business Segment Performance - The adult nutrition and care products segment saw a 5% year-on-year revenue increase to 3.439 billion yuan, largely attributed to the outstanding performance of Swisse's innovative anti-aging product line, which grew by 39% compared to the benchmark [2]. - Revenue from infant nutrition and care products increased by 3% year-on-year to 2.501 billion yuan, driven by effective e-commerce channel development and new mother education initiatives in specialty stores. The company successfully transitioned its products to meet new national standards, with the market share of its premium infant formula brand reaching a historical high of 15.9% [2]. - The pet nutrition and care products segment experienced a 10% year-on-year revenue increase to 1.079 billion yuan, with gross margin rising by 12 percentage points to 58.70%. This growth was supported by deepened partnerships in North America and the ongoing high-end upgrade of Solid Gold in mainland China, leading to significant improvements in profitability [2]. Regional and Channel Insights - Revenue from mainland China increased by 9% year-on-year to 4.936 billion yuan, driven by strong growth in adult nutrition and care products and rapid channel expansion. Cross-border e-commerce revenue grew by 18%, with Douyin channel revenue surging by 80%, becoming a key growth engine [3]. - Revenue from Australia and New Zealand decreased by 18% to 801 million yuan, primarily due to a decline in corporate purchasing business [3]. - North American revenue increased by 6% to 862 million yuan, benefiting from the popularity of premium pet nutrition products and a growing pet population, with major retailers like Amazon, Walmart, and PerSmart performing well [3]. - Other regions saw a 17% year-on-year revenue increase to 420 million yuan, with strong growth in the Asian expansion market [3].

Core Viewpoint - H&H International Holdings reported a total revenue of 7.019 billion yuan for H1 2025, reflecting a 5% year-on-year increase, with adjusted comparable EBITDA of 1.101 billion yuan, down 3% year-on-year, and adjusted comparable net profit of 363 million yuan, up 5% year-on-year. The company is expected to see EPS of 0.79, 1.05, and 1.30 yuan for 2025-2027, with a "Buy" investment rating assigned by Huaxin Securities [1]. Revenue and Profitability - The company achieved a gross margin increase of 2 percentage points to 62.53% in H1 2025, driven by improved margins in adult and pet nutrition and care products, along with product mix optimization [1]. - The proportion of sales and distribution/administrative expenses to revenue increased by 3 percentage points and decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 42.33% and 5.68%, respectively, due to changes in the channel mix for adult nutrition and care products in mainland China and investments in new market expansion strategies [1]. - Adjusted comparable EBITDA margin and adjusted comparable net profit margin decreased by 1 percentage point and 0.02 percentage points to 15.68% and 5.17%, respectively, primarily due to high base effects from the previous year and increased selling expenses [1]. Business Segment Performance - In H1 2025, revenue from adult nutrition and care products increased by 5% to 3.439 billion yuan, largely due to the outstanding performance of Swisse's innovative anti-aging product line, which saw a 39% growth compared to the benchmark [2]. - Revenue from infant nutrition and care products rose by 3% to 2.501 billion yuan, supported by effective e-commerce channel development and educational initiatives for new mothers in specialty stores, with the product successfully transitioning to new national standards [2]. - Revenue from pet nutrition and care products increased by 10% to 1.079 billion yuan, with gross margin rising by 12 percentage points to 58.70%, driven by deepened North American channel cooperation and the ongoing high-end upgrade of Solid Gold in mainland China [2]. Regional and Channel Insights - Revenue from mainland China in H1 2025 grew by 9% to 4.936 billion yuan, primarily due to strong growth in adult nutrition and care products and rapid channel expansion, with cross-border e-commerce revenue increasing by 18% and Douyin channel revenue surging by 80% [3]. - Revenue from Australia and New Zealand decreased by 18% to 801 million yuan, mainly due to a decline in corporate purchasing business [3]. - North American revenue increased by 6% to 862 million yuan, benefiting from the popularity of high-end pet nutrition products and the growing pet population, with major retailers like Amazon and Walmart performing well [3]. - Other regions saw a revenue increase of 17% to 420 million yuan, with strong growth in the Asian expansion market [3].

Core Insights - H&H Group's strategic adjustments, forward-looking layout, and solid financial foundation provide new possibilities for navigating cycles [1] - The company reported a 5.2% year-on-year revenue growth to 7.02 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with the Chinese market contributing significantly [1][2] - The adult nutrition care (ANC) segment achieved revenue of 3.44 billion yuan, growing 5.9% year-on-year, while the pet nutrition care (PNC) segment grew 8.6% to 1.08 billion yuan [1][5] Revenue Breakdown - The Chinese market accounted for 70.3% of total revenue, with an 8.7% year-on-year growth [1] - ANC revenue was 3.44 billion yuan, BNC (infant nutrition and care) revenue was 2.50 billion yuan (up 2.9%), and PNC revenue was 1.08 billion yuan [1][5] - Swisse brand in the ANC segment saw a 13.1% growth in China, becoming the market leader [2][4] Market Trends - The global nutrition and health industry is undergoing adjustments amid declining population dividends and increasing competition [2] - H&H Group's focus on family nutrition has positioned it as a leader in the industry [2] - The demand for high-end infant formula is rising, with BNC segment revenue growing 10% in the Chinese market, significantly outperforming the overall market growth of 0.2% [8] Product Innovation - H&H Group is expanding its product offerings under the "mega brand" strategy, including high-end brands like SwissePlus and Little Swisse [3] - The company is responding to the growing demand for innovative anti-aging solutions, achieving significant breakthroughs in high-margin anti-aging supplements [3] Geographic Expansion - H&H Group's ANC business has seen growth in overseas markets, with Swisse becoming the top brand in Australia for vitamins and supplements [4] - The PNC segment is also growing steadily, with Solid Gold in China achieving a 17.5% growth rate [5][6] Financial Performance - The company recorded a gross profit of 4.389 billion yuan, a 7.8% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin improvement from 60.9% to 62.5% [10][11] - Cash reserves exceeded 18.3 billion yuan, supported by strong profit performance and efficient working capital conversion [12] - The company is actively refinancing to improve debt conditions and reduce overall financing costs [12]

Core Viewpoint - The company's 1H25 performance met market expectations, with revenue of 7.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, and adjusted net profit of 360 million yuan, up 4.6% year-on-year [1][2]. Revenue Performance - All three business segments recorded positive growth, with milk powder revenue rebounding. Overall revenue increased by 4.9% year-on-year, with ANC revenue up 5% and ANC China revenue up 13.1%, driven by strong performance of Swisse's new product categories and rapid growth in cross-border e-commerce and new retail channels [1]. - ANC Australia and New Zealand revenue decreased by 18.5% due to adjustments in the purchasing agent channel [1]. - BNC revenue increased by 2.9%, with milk powder revenue up 9.6%, while probiotics and infant nutrition products saw declines of 16% and 17.1%, respectively [1]. - PNC revenue grew by 9.6%, with PNC China revenue up 17.5% and North America PNC revenue up 6.4%, driven by Zesty Paws' 12.8% revenue growth, while Solid Gold's revenue fell by 23.3% [1]. Profitability Metrics - EBITDA margin remained healthy, with adjusted net profit margin improving. ANC's adjusted EBITDA margin decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 20.9%, primarily due to increased investment in overseas expansion and a higher proportion of sales through Douyin in China [2]. - BNC's adjusted EBITDA margin fell by 2.6 percentage points to 12.4%, mainly due to costs associated with the new national standard transition and consumer education [2]. - PNC's adjusted EBITDA margin increased by 1.6 percentage points to 12.4%, benefiting from improvements in product and channel mix [2]. - The company completed refinancing in 1H25, with financing costs rising by 34% year-on-year to 580 million yuan, impacting overall profit performance [2]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve high single-digit revenue growth for the full year, with ANC projected to see mid to high single-digit growth [2]. - Milk powder business is anticipated to accelerate to low double-digit growth in the second half of the year, while PNC is expected to continue its growth trend [2]. - The company forecasts continued improvement in internal profit margins and ongoing optimization of financial costs [2]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been raised by 5% and 6% to 640 million yuan and 760 million yuan, respectively, due to the recovery in the milk powder business [3]. - The current valuation is set at 14 and 11 times the P/E for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with a target price increase of 23% to 17.7 HKD, corresponding to 16 and 14 times the P/E for 2025 and 2026, indicating a 20% upside potential [3].