RT Bloomberg New Economy (@BBGNewEconomy)As global trade and finance evolve, the question looms: Is de-dollarization truly underway?We hear from CEO of @EuroclearGroup Valerie Urbain at the #BloombergNewEconomy Forum.For details: https://t.co/2T7Qg43jlf https://t.co/IWHijtZpUt ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated revenues for Q3 2025 were down 5% at $4.4 billion, with global ag segment sales down 11% and North America down 29% [9][10] - Industrial adjusted EBIT was $104 million, down 69% year over year, reflecting lower industry demands and tariffs [10][16] - Adjusted net income decreased to $109 million, with adjusted EPS for the quarter at $0.08, down from $0.24 [10][16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Agriculture Q3 net sales were just under $3 billion, down 10% year over year, primarily due to a 29% decrease in North America [17] - Construction third quarter net sales were $739 million, up 8% year over year, driven by higher sales in North America and EMEA [20] - Adjusted gross margin for agriculture was 20.6%, down from 22.7% in Q3 2024, affected by lower volumes and tariff costs [17][18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America experienced a 29% decline in agriculture sales, while EMEA saw a 16% increase, particularly in tractors [9][17] - Conditions in South America remain challenging, with geopolitical and market circumstances impacting farmers [5][6] - The overall industry retail demand is expected to be down around 10% from 2024, with construction volumes expected to decline about 5% [27][28] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on five strategic pillars: expanding product leadership, advancing iron and tech integration, driving commercial excellence, operational excellence, and quality as a mindset [10][18] - The company is transforming its global supply chain and dealer network to mitigate risks from market volatility [4][6] - Upcoming product launches at Agritechnica are aimed at filling market gaps and gaining ground in EMEA [9][11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that market fundamentals remain uncertain and challenging for farmers, particularly in North America and South America [5][6] - The company expects to navigate near-term challenges while investing in business improvements and preparing for future product launches [6][7] - The outlook for 2026 anticipates flat to slightly down global industry retail demand compared to 2025 [31][32] Other Important Information - The company has reduced quality costs by over $60 million year to date, reflecting improvements in operational efficiency [15] - The company repurchased $50 million worth of stock at an average price of $11.25 per share during Q3 [24] - The company is maintaining a focus on margin improvement initiatives despite the current trade environment [33] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on the decremental margin on the volume mix? - The decremental margin was primarily driven by the 29% decline in North America, with EMEA up 16% [35] Question: What is the impact of SG&A on the margin? - SG&A increased due to higher variable compensation accruals, contributing to the margin decline [36] Question: Can you unpack the product cost changes? - Product costs were favorable by $33 million year over year, despite $44 million in tariff costs [38] Question: How much of the tariff cost is tied to different tariff categories? - About 20% of the tariff costs are from Section 232, with no reliance on potential relief from the Supreme Court [43] Question: What gives confidence in achieving desired dealer levels in three to four months? - The company expects to achieve a $1 billion inventory reduction by year-end, allowing for increased production in 2026 [41]

Core Insights - Santander has launched a new platform, Navigator Global, aimed at assisting businesses in expanding internationally by connecting them with verified providers, local experts, and real-time insights [2][4] - The platform is designed to reduce risks associated with global trade and offers guidance for businesses looking to export or enter new markets [2][4] - The updated platform builds on a previous version that supported over 2,500 businesses in the UK and is now available in more than 40 markets [3] Industry Context - Research indicates that 65% of goods firms have experienced operational disruptions due to uncertainty, with this figure rising to 83% among companies facing high regulatory changes [5] - The evolving regulatory frameworks and compliance obligations are complicating risk management for firms, as they deal with both rising input costs and shifting rules [6] - Companies that perform well are effectively managing uncertainty by investing in scenario planning, adjusting cash flow forecasts monthly, and diversifying logistics providers [7]

US-China Trade Relations - A one-year truce exists in US-China trade relations, but tensions remain from previous policies [1][2][8] - The US accounts for 15% of total global imports, and China accounts for 15% of global exports of goods, highlighting their mutual dependence [5] - The current trade situation is close to pre-"Liberation Day" tariffs, with some exceptions like fentanyl tariffs and licensing regimes on magnets [3][4] - Ambiguity persists on complex issues like Taiwan, TikTok, high-tech chips (BLACKWELL), and China's potential Boeing/oil purchases from Russia [4][5][6] Geopolitical Strategy and Alliances - The US should work with allies to develop secure supply chains, reducing dependence on China for rare earths [9] - Agreements with allies like Australia are crucial, and exploring opportunities in Latin America for rare earths is important [10] - China is considered the biggest competitor and strategic threat to the US, necessitating agreements with countries to pull them out of China's sphere of influence [11] - The US faces distrust and dislike globally, hindering cooperative agreements, despite other countries needing the US market and defense [16] Market Discipline and Future Outlook - Market discipline is expected to prevent an escalating trade war, as it would hurt both the US and China significantly [5][8][9] - The US has been perceived as an unreliable trade partner, with deals being made and then retracted, creating distrust [15][16] - A shift towards cooperative agreements, rather than a "bullying mentality," is needed for improved relations and cooperation [15][16]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview: Global Logistics Core Insights and Arguments - **Deceleration in Demand**: Signs of deceleration in ocean and air freight demand are emerging as ocean volume growth slowed to +3% globally in August, with a significant decline of -12% in Transpacific Eastbound volumes [1][3]. Air freight volumes also showed a modest deceleration in September, likely due to the expiration of the de minimis exemption [5][23]. - **Pressure on Ocean Rates**: Ocean freight rates are at their lowest levels since 2023, with the SCFI down over 50% year-to-date [3][20]. Key indicators such as the SCFI and WCI have seen declines of 54% and 58% respectively [20]. - **Orderbook Expansion**: The container shipping orderbook grew by +6% in Q3, with new orders equivalent to 3.4% of the in-service fleet, indicating continued investment despite oversupply risks [4][21]. - **Airfreight Performance**: Airfreight demand grew by 4% in August, but the growth rate moderated in September, with revenues below last year's levels [5][23]. The expiration of the US de minimis exemption is expected to impact future demand [23]. - **Surface Freight Outlook**: U.S. surface rates contracted in June and are expected to remain flat or decline in the second half of the year due to a softer freight outlook [6][24]. Additional Important Insights - **Global Trade Volumes**: Global trade volumes increased by 4.9% YoY in July, driven by a 6% rise in emerging market exports, while U.S. and European exports remained largely unchanged [2][18]. - **PMI Indicators**: September PMIs showed an increase in China (+0.7pt to 51.2) and the U.S. (+0.4pt to 49.1), while Europe saw a decrease for the first time this year (-0.9pt to 49.8) [2][18]. - **Market Sentiment**: The sentiment in the logistics sector remains weak, with companies expressing pessimism regarding international ocean demand and potential challenges in achieving a meaningful peak season [3][19]. Company Ratings and Valuations Key Company Ratings - **DSV**: Rated Outperform with a target price of DKK 1,700. Expected to become the largest freight forwarder post-acquisition of DB Schenker [9]. - **DHL**: Rated Outperform with a target price of €42.00. Strongly levered to e-commerce and world trade, with a solid long-term holding outlook [10]. - **Kuehne+Nagel**: Rated Market-Perform with a target price of CHF 165. Underperformance in volume growth noted, with execution issues impacting investor sentiment [11]. - **AP Moller - Maersk**: Rated Underperform with a target price of DKK 10,600. Facing challenges in container shipping with declining spot rates and a high orderbook [12]. Valuation Comparisons - **Valuation Metrics**: DSV shows a strong growth trajectory with an expected EPS of DKK 100+ by 2028, while Maersk's strategy has been criticized for failing to deliver promised synergies [9][12]. - **Market Cap and Share Buybacks**: DSV is projected to repurchase DKK 24 billion of shares annually, compared to its current market cap of DKK 310,654 million [9]. Conclusion The global logistics industry is experiencing a notable deceleration in demand across both ocean and air freight sectors, with significant pressure on rates and a growing orderbook despite oversupply risks. Companies like DSV and DHL are positioned favorably, while others like Maersk face challenges. The overall sentiment in the logistics sector remains cautious as companies navigate a complex market landscape.

Trade Relations & Tariffs - The EU raised tariffs on steel imports, aiming to protect its market from global overcapacity, primarily stemming from China [1][2] - The EU emphasizes that the steel import restrictions are a horizontal measure, not specifically targeting any single country, but impacting all importers [2] - The US shares similar concerns with the EU regarding global steel overcapacity and protecting local markets, leading to engagement between the two [3] - EU-US trade relations are the largest in the world, with both being each other's largest trading partner, indicating significant economic stakes [4] Economic Growth & Uncertainty - Global trade uncertainty and tensions negatively affect growth, as the EU's economic model relies on open international trade [6] - The EU is committed to defending a functioning multilateral rules-based trading system and diversifying trade engagement through new trade agreements [6][7] - The EU has concluded trade agreements with Merkasur, Mexico, Switzerland, and Indonesia, and is negotiating with India, Thailand, and the United Arab Emirates [7] Investment Opportunities in Europe - The EU offers investors a single market of 450 million consumers and 26 million companies, characterized by predictability, rule of law, and strong institutions [9] - There is elevated investor interest in Euro-dominated assets due to the stability and predictability they offer in turbulent times [9] - Strengthening the competitiveness of the European economy and enhancing productivity growth is a priority for the current political cycle [9]

Joining us now is Afan Bash. She is founder and CEO of Rock Creek and it's great to have you back on the show. Welcome.Great to be with you. So, let's start right there because this has been a global bull market. Um, we focus so much on the US, but how do you see that versus the rest of the world.So, we had such low valuations in places like emerging markets that we were just talking about. And of course, you've had a number of companies that are in getting better. plus they're benefiting from inflation and ...

First, the president says he will hit drug imports with a 100% tariff increase if those companies fail to build out operations right here in America. Those tariffs are kicking in on October 1st. US pharma stocks are reacting in a kind of mixed way right now.You can kind of see now you can see Eli Liy is actually up now. The thinking there Eli Liy has a good amount of its production here in the United States. Merc Fiser, Gilead moving moving a little bit to the upside marginally.So, Madna shares down fractio ...

AI赋能与贸易转型 - AI正在改变普通创业者的商业日常，跳出硅谷泡沫，解决实际问题[1] - CoCreate大赛展示了“接地气”的创新，激发了中小企业的激情[1] - B2B Agent正在重塑贸易流程，从搜索进化为贸易全链条大脑[1] - AI大幅提高效率，使“一人公司”成为现实[1] - AI正在科技金融领域实现融资与支付的革命[1] - 国际贸易正迎来AI赋能中小企业主的“ChatGPT”时刻[1] 行业应用与案例 - 创业者借助AI工具，实现了“一人公司”，AI全包产品设计、寻找供应商甚至搞定贷款等环节[1] - 智能测量工具、女性高尔夫球杆、易穿服装、自消毒尿布台等创新产品涌现[1] 嘉宾观点 - 阿里国际站总裁张阔分享了AI在国际贸易中的应用[1] - 美国小企业主Andrew Laplante和Mike CcClary分享了AI如何改变他们的创业方式[1] - Slope联合创始人Lawrence Lin Murata，AI-Mich集团CEO Alisa Xia，COMAU销售人员Alejandro Alvarez分享了他们对AI的看法[1]

Business Strategy & Outlook - NYK aims to balance rigorous financial discipline with fostering new business growth [40] - The company is focused on expanding its core business and exploring new opportunities in environmentally friendly sectors like offshore windmill projects and alternative fuel projects [39] - NYK views decarbonization shipping as a significant business opportunity, aiming for carbon-neutral or zero-emission vessels to provide additional value to customers and shareholders [39] - The company is increasing shareholder returns through a higher payout ratio, minimum dividend per share, and a new buyback program, aiming to improve its market capitalization, which is currently below 100% of its book value [16][17][18] Financial Performance & Risk Management - NYK experienced strong revenue and profit growth in 2024 [7] - Initial forecasts for 2025 anticipated a potential negative impact of up to 100 billion Japanese Yen (approximately $641 million USD) from tariffs, but later revised the expected drag on recurring profit to 24 billion Japanese Yen (approximately $154 million USD) [8] - The company expects its energy business to contribute 20% of recurring profit in 2025, increasing to 30% by the end of the decade [13] - NYK emphasizes the stability of its LNG contracts, which mitigate the impact of cost fluctuations compared to other shipping businesses [12] Sustainability & Innovation - NYK is committed to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 through its "Sail Green" initiative, investing in decarbonization technology and renewable energy [14] - The company is expanding its fleet of alternative-fueled ships, primarily LNG, while also developing and testing green ammonia and other next-generation biofuels [27] - NYK operates the world's first commercially operating ammonia-powered tugboat, demonstrating its commitment to reducing carbon emissions [23][28] Market Dynamics & Competition - The global shipping industry faces challenges from escalating trade tensions and tariffs, with potential port fees on ships linked to Chinese-built or flagged vessels estimated to cost container shippers $10 billion annually [1][33][34] - NYK is part of the Ocean Network Express (ONE) alliance, the world's sixth-largest container shipping line, which has improved efficiency and expanded its global network [26][27] - The company recognizes the increasing trend of shareholder activism in Japan and is actively engaging with investors to address concerns about capital allocation and communication [19][20]