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摩根士丹利:进入全球化新时代的领先制药企业;首次覆盖恒瑞医药H股重新覆盖A股,超配评级
摩根· 2025-07-11 01:13
Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage of Hengrui Pharma's H-shares and resumes coverage of A-shares, both with an Overweight (OW) rating, with H-shares being the preferred stock [1][43]. Core Insights - Hengrui Pharma is positioned to benefit from an improving domestic policy environment and accelerated globalization, which has not yet been fully reflected in the market [1]. - The company is recognized for its extensive and balanced product portfolio, with a strong pipeline across various therapeutic areas, including oncology, metabolic and cardiovascular diseases, immunology, and respiratory diseases [3][12]. - Hengrui is expected to receive approvals for 5, 5, and 11 new drugs in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, totaling 47 NDA/BLA approvals from 2025 to 2027 [3][10]. Summary by Sections Market Potential - The global pharmaceutical market is valued at $1.47 trillion, approximately 6.6 times the size of the Chinese domestic market, with a projected CAGR of 5.7% from 2023 to 2028 [3][32]. - Hengrui has completed 14 licensing deals since 2018, with a total transaction value of $15 billion, indicating strong interest from global biopharma companies in assets from China [3][32]. Financial Projections - The target price for H-shares is HK$78, representing a 45% upside, while the target price for A-shares is RMB 71, representing a 37% upside [7][43]. - Revenue and net profit are projected to grow at CAGRs of 18% and 24%, respectively, from 2024 to 2027 [4][37]. - Innovative drug sales are expected to grow at a CAGR of 34% from 2024 to 2027, contributing to 74% of total drug sales by 2027 [38][40]. Product Pipeline - Hengrui has developed a comprehensive pipeline of innovative drugs, with a focus on key disease areas and a one-stop solution for various subtypes and treatment needs [19][21]. - The company is advancing multiple GLP-1 products targeting the $100 billion global diabetes market, with competitive clinical data supporting their efficacy [19][20]. Valuation Analysis - The DCF valuation method yields a target price of HK$78 for H-shares and RMB 71 for A-shares, with a reasonable premium due to Hengrui's leading position and growth potential [4][43]. - The SOTP analysis indicates that the contribution of globalization opportunities to total value is still conservative, accounting for only 13% of the total estimated value [4][43].
My Honest Thoughts on the United States' Tariffs
Principles by Ray Dalio· 2025-07-09 15:48
Tariffs & Trade Policy - Tariffs are a symptom of underlying changes [1] - Well-executed tariffs of reasonable size can be beneficial [2] - The US aims to generate tax revenue from tariffs [2] - Tariffs are intended to boost US manufacturing for employment and security [2] Global Economic Shift - The world is moving away from efficient, globalized production and free-flowing capital [3] - The shift is towards a less efficient, more controlled global economy [3] - This transition may lead to higher inflation and slower growth, potentially stagflation [3] Manufacturing & Economic Impact - The potential for tariffs to develop US manufacturing remains a question [4]
吉利汽车(00175.HK):吉利6月销量大幅增长 全年目标上调至300万辆
Ge Long Hui· 2025-07-02 19:10
Core Viewpoint - The company has shown significant growth in sales, particularly in the electric vehicle segment, and has adjusted its annual sales target upwards due to strong performance and new product launches [1][2][3] Sales Performance - In June, the company achieved a total sales volume of 236,000 vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 42% [1] - Cumulatively, from January to June, the company sold 1.409 million vehicles, up 47% year-on-year [1] - In June, the company sold 122,000 new energy vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 86%, accounting for 52% of total sales [1] - The breakdown of new energy vehicle sales includes 85,000 pure electric vehicles (up 129% year-on-year) and 37,000 plug-in hybrids (up 30% year-on-year) [1] Product Launches and Future Plans - The company has launched several successful models, including the Galaxy Starry 8, which sold over 10,000 units in its first month [2] - The company plans to introduce multiple new models in the second half of 2025, including Galaxy A7, Galaxy M9, Lynk & Co 10 EM-P, Lynk & Co Z20, Zeekr 9X, and others [2] - The annual sales target for 2024 has been raised from 2.71 million to 3 million vehicles, increasing the expected growth rate from 25% to 38% [2] Global Expansion - In June, the company exported 40,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 12%, while total exports for the first half of the year reached 184,000 vehicles, down 8% year-on-year [2] - The company is actively expanding its global presence, with plans to add over 300 overseas sales and service outlets by 2025 [3] - The company has established a presence in key markets such as the Middle East, Asia-Pacific, Africa, Latin America, and Europe, with 891 sales and service points across 81 countries [2][3] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 351.27 billion, 413.26 billion, and 469.53 billion yuan, respectively [3] - Expected net profits for the same period are 15.20 billion, 17.28 billion, and 20.79 billion yuan, with earnings per share (EPS) of 1.51, 1.71, and 2.06 yuan [3]
X @Bloomberg
Bloomberg· 2025-06-29 22:12
Currency Globalization - South Korea's efforts to globalize its currency are gaining traction [1] - Won trading is expanding after extending onshore market hours [1]
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals (ACAD) Earnings Call Presentation
2025-06-25 12:41
Financial Performance and Expectations - Acadia Pharmaceuticals expects to generate over $1 Billion in total U S revenues in 2025[12] - The company estimates a risk-adjusted peak sales potential of $25 Billion from its pipeline molecules[17] - The full potential peak sales for pipeline molecules is estimated at $12 Billion, assuming successful approval and commercialization[17] - Potential peak sales of current products are projected to be in the range of $15-$2 Billion[19] Pipeline Development and Strategy - Acadia Pharmaceuticals is focused on advancing care for underserved neurological and rare diseases[11] - The company has a late-stage pipeline with ACP-101 (P3-PWS) data expected in early Q4 2025 and ACP-204 (P2-ADP) data expected in mid-2026[12] - Acadia has 2 approved medicines and 9 disclosed and multiple undisclosed programs[30] - The company anticipates 7 Phase 2 or Phase 3 study starts in 2025 and 2026, and 5 Phase 2 or Phase 3 study readouts between 2025 and 2027[30] Key Programs and Indications - ACP-204 is being developed for Alzheimer's Disease Psychosis (ADP) and Lewy Body Dementia with Psychosis (LBDP), targeting approximately 3 million patients with psychosis across PDP, LBDP, and ADP in the US[45] - ACP-211 is in development for Major Depressive Disorder (MDD), a condition affecting approximately 21 million adults in the US[93, 125] - ACP-711 is being investigated for Essential Tremor (ET), which affects an estimated 7 million people or 22% of the US population[136, 171] - DAYBUE, approved for Rett syndrome, has seen >50% of patients remain on treatment at 12 months and 65% on treatment for 12+ months[271]
WAVES 2025:创投「新纪元」里,逐浪而行
3 6 Ke· 2025-06-25 07:03
Group 1 - The core theme of the news is the emergence of a new investment cycle in 2025, driven by AI technology, globalization, and the increasing role of state-owned capital as a stabilizing force in the market [2][4] - The WAVES conference serves as a platform for investors and entrepreneurs to discuss cutting-edge topics such as AI innovation, globalization trends, and value reassessment, highlighting the importance of adapting to new market dynamics [2][4] - The CEO of 36Kr expresses optimism about the new generation of entrepreneurs, emphasizing their potential to disrupt established industry giants and create transformative innovations [2][4] Group 2 - The conference is held in Liangzhu, a city rich in cultural history, which is now seen as an ideal environment for digital innovation and entrepreneurship [4] - Local government officials highlight the supportive innovation ecosystem in Hangzhou, aiming to build a more influential venture capital ecosystem [4] - The investment community is experiencing a renewed interest in AI, with many investors feeling a sense of urgency to capitalize on emerging opportunities in this sector [12][14] Group 3 - The discussion around AI investments reveals a mix of excitement and caution among investors, with concerns about missing out on opportunities while also being wary of potential bubbles in the market [12][14][16] - The concept of "going global" is emphasized, with entrepreneurs and investors looking to redefine their roles in the international market, moving from mere exports to establishing global brands [17][19] - The emergence of "shadow companies" that support global operations is noted, highlighting the importance of logistics and cross-border services in the current investment landscape [21] Group 4 - The conference features a new segment called "Let's WAVES," showcasing young entrepreneurs who have achieved unexpected success, reflecting the growing influence of the younger generation in the startup ecosystem [27][40] - The discussions emphasize the importance of creativity and imagination in driving future investment opportunities, with a focus on how AI can enhance business models and operational efficiency [28][40]
Cultural Competence | Snigdha Annabattula | TEDxWestberry School Youth
TEDx Talks· 2025-06-13 14:50
टू अंडरस्टैंड दिस एंड नाउ वी गेट यू द इज़ मोरेंट देन अबव दिस स्किल इज़ नोन ऐज़ कल्चर कॉम्बिनेसी कल्चर कॉम्बिनेसी इज़ द एबिलिटी टू एंड एंड इमर्स एंड इफेक्टिव एंड अब आई आई एम टुडे आई एम गोइंग टू बी स्पीकिंग अबाउट द सिग्निफिकेंट्स ऑफ़ करियर कॉम्पिटिटेंसी एंड नोबलाइज़ वर्ड इन अ ग्लोबलाइज़ वर्ल्ड कल्चर कॉम्पिटिटेंसी डज़ मीन अवॉयड मिस्टेक्स इज़ अबाउट ब्लेसिंग द डार्क विथ अस एंड अदर्स वर्क कोलबोरेटेड बी टुगेदर वेदर इन वर्क प्लेस हेल्थ केयर और एजुकेशन इट इज़ एन इनोवेशन टू वर्क अ माइंड एंड समवन एल्स चूस परमानेंसी इन वर्क प्ले ...
上海市静安区持续打造开放包容的资管、财管生态
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-12 09:33
高能从现代产业体系、空间布局和发展服务环境三个维度介绍了静安的优势与活力。在现代产业体系方面,商贸服务、金融服务和专业服务三大传统产业构 建起静安经济版图的硬核支柱,数据智能、文化创意和生命健康三大新兴产业则培育着静安未来发展的新质动能。在空间布局方面,静安依托南京西路高端 服务集聚带、苏河湾滨水商务集聚带、中环两翼创新创意集聚带,构建立体化产业生态圈,推动各类金融机构精准布局,集聚发展。在发展环境方面,静安 把企业的获得感作为出发点和落脚点,为金融机构提供从落户发展开始的全流程服务。 近期,静安区先后成立了全球服务商"一站式"出海服务中心、静安跨境金融服务中心,发布了"全球服务商计划"出海服务包,并打造出海全链路服务矩阵, 为企业全球化布局装上加速引擎。 展望未来,静安始终敞开怀抱,以开放的生态、创新的土壤,与企业携手构建AI驱动、全球化协同的财富管理新范式,共同绘制开放、智能、可持续的行 业蓝图。 上证报中国证券网讯(陈铭 记者 严晓菲)6月12日,以"新科技 新金融 新生态"为主题的中金财富2025财富管理发展论坛在上海中国金融信息中心举行。上 海市静安区投资促进办公室副主任高能致辞表示,科技革命重塑全 ...
倒计时10天|36氪2025出海全球化创新名册招募进行中!
36氪· 2025-06-05 18:50
Core Insights - The article emphasizes the rapid transformation of the global business landscape driven by technological advancements and the emergence of new consumer generations [2][3] - It highlights the dissolution of boundaries between digital technology and the real economy, with AI, cloud computing, and IoT becoming foundational elements for restructuring global supply chains and creating new business models [4][5] - The article notes that only players with "hardcore" competitive advantages can thrive in this intense competition, while emerging consumer markets, particularly Generation Z, are becoming significant drivers of consumption [6] Industry Trends - The global supply chain is shifting from a focus solely on efficiency to a balance of resilience and security, with control over core technologies and key processes becoming crucial for companies to gain global influence [5] - Chinese companies are entering a deeper phase of globalization, with projections indicating that by 2025, the scale of Chinese companies going global is expected to exceed $2.5 trillion, accounting for 12.7% of China's GDP [7] - The growth rate of emerging sectors such as AI, digital entertainment, and consumption upgrades is significantly outpacing traditional industries [7] Event and Initiative - 36Kr has launched the "East Forward 2025 Globalization Innovation List" to identify outstanding leaders and companies in the globalization wave, focusing on three dimensions: "Leading Figures," "Innovative Figures," and "Innovative Enterprises" [10] - The initiative aims to build a bridge for dialogue between domestic and international markets, helping Chinese innovation to reach a global stage [10] Participation and Evaluation - The evaluation criteria for the "Leading Figures" include global influence, industry contribution, market expansion, and cultural integration, with respective weightings of 30%, 30%, 25%, and 15% [12][14] - For "Innovative Figures," the focus is on innovation-driven entrepreneurs and executives, with criteria including innovative thinking, market insight, and cultural integration, weighted at 25%, 30%, 30%, and 15% [15][19] - The "Innovative Enterprises" category targets companies with innovation capabilities and market competitiveness in sectors like consumption, AI, and entertainment, with evaluation criteria including development potential, innovation ability, market performance, and global strategy [24][27]
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Conference Transcript
2025-06-05 15:30
Summary of Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Conference Call - June 05, 2025 Company Overview - **Company**: Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) - **Speaker**: Lynn Martin, President of NYSE since 2022 Key Points IPO Market Sentiment - Initial optimism for the IPO market at the start of the year, which continued until mid-March [3] - Volatility in April caused several companies to delay their IPO plans, particularly international firms awaiting clarity on tariff debates [4] - Recent successful IPOs include Hinge Health, Mountain, and Circle, with Circle's IPO seeing a 30% increase from its offering price [5] - Companies that went public in 2024, such as Rubrik and Reddit, have seen their market caps triple, indicating readiness for the public market [6] Futures Business Positioning - The futures business thrives in volatile environments as companies seek to manage risk [8] - ICE has curated its futures portfolio to include energy, interest rates, and equity indices, focusing on global supply and demand dynamics [9] - Energy open interest has increased by 6% year-on-year and nearly 10% compared to the end of 2024, indicating growing trust in ICE's platform [10][11] Mortgage Business Opportunities - The mortgage business is seen as an opportunity to leverage data for revenue growth across ICE's services [14] - 65% of new mortgage originations occur through ICE's network, presenting a significant data opportunity [16] - The introduction of mortgage rate lock index futures is a step towards productizing mortgage data [17] Extended Trading Hours - ICE has extended U.S. equities trading hours to 22 hours a day, with plans for further extensions [20] - The focus is on adding reliability and resiliency to the trading ecosystem [21] Options Market Dynamics - Retail participation in options has surged, particularly with zero days till expiry (DTE) options, which have seen significant volume increases since COVID [27] - The average response time for processing incoming order messages has improved, with a peak of 1.1 trillion messages processed in April [28] Texas Market Developments - ICE has reincorporated NYSE Chicago debt to Texas, aligning with the state's business-friendly initiatives [33] - Texas is the largest state for ICE listings, and there is positive sentiment among companies considering dual listings [35] Tokenization and Crypto - ICE is cautiously optimistic about entering the crypto space, pending regulatory clarity [42][44] - Tokenization is viewed as a potential area for improving market structure, though its exact role remains uncertain [45][46] Future Trends - AI adoption is expected to be a significant storyline in the exchange space, with a focus on maintaining market integrity [49] - Globalization trends are also anticipated to influence the movement of companies to U.S. markets due to valuation appreciation [50] Additional Insights - The importance of institutional players in the futures market has been emphasized, with a focus on supply and demand dynamics [12][13] - The mortgage business is seen as a long-term growth opportunity, with a focus on efficiency and data utilization [16][18] - The competitive landscape in options trading has evolved, with retail driving significant volume increases [27][28] This summary encapsulates the key insights and developments discussed during the conference call, highlighting the strategic positioning and future outlook of Intercontinental Exchange.