The dollar index (DXY00) rose to a 3-week high today and is up by +0.15%.  Escalation of geopolitical risks in Venezuela boosted safe-haven demand for the dollar after the US captured Venezuelan president Maduro, and US President Trump said the US plans to temporarily "run" Venezuela.  Hawkish comments today from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari were supportive of the dollar, as he said US interest rates may be "close to neutral" for the economy.  The dollar fell back from its best level after the U ...

Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said Monday that he thinks the central bank is close to the point where it should stop lowering interest rates.In a CNBC interview, the central banker said the key calculus now is whether the Fed should be more focused on a slowing labor market or stubbornly high inflation."My guess is we're pretty close to neutral right now," Kashkari said in a live CNBC "Squawk Box" interview. "We just need to get more data to see which is the bigger force. Is it inflati ...

Core Viewpoint - A significant stock market collapse is anticipated, driven by various economic red flags, including canceled corporate deals, banking sector strains, and ongoing stagflation [1] Economic Indicators - Rate cuts are viewed as detrimental, primarily benefiting banks and government debt rather than average households, with expectations of a 40% to 60% decline in equities over time [2][3] - Excessive federal spending is highlighted as a critical issue that could reinforce inflation without aiding ordinary workers [4] Employment Trends - Job data is expected to worsen due to advancements in AI, leading to significant job losses and challenges for displaced workers in finding new employment [5] Corporate Earnings - Companies like Nvidia are accused of inflating earnings through internal spending, raising concerns about valuation amidst a "technical revolution" [6] Market Predictions - A potential move towards universal basic income may arise from reduced earning power in the current economic environment, with significant vulnerabilities noted in U.S. equity benchmarks [7] - A bullish outlook for precious metals is presented, with gold predicted to reach $6,000 and silver above $80 within the next twelve months, driven by persistent inflation [8][9] Market Performance - Skepticism exists regarding the ability of equity markets to sustain recent gains, with historical data suggesting that four consecutive years of double-digit advances are rare [10]

Core Insights - The article discusses how multipolarity, deglobalization, and nearshoring are expected to lead to a structural increase in inflation, as predicted by economists [1] Group 1: Economic Trends - Multipolarity is emerging as a significant trend, indicating a shift in global power dynamics that may affect economic stability and inflation rates [1] - Deglobalization is highlighted as a factor that could disrupt traditional supply chains, potentially leading to increased costs and inflationary pressures [1] - Nearshoring is becoming more prevalent as companies seek to relocate production closer to their consumer markets, which may also contribute to rising inflation due to higher operational costs [1] Group 2: Inflation Predictions - Economists predict that these trends will not only affect current inflation rates but may also lead to a long-term structural shift in how inflation behaves in the global economy [1] - The anticipated increase in inflation is expected to be driven by changes in trade patterns and production locations, which could alter pricing dynamics across various industries [1]

马来银行：新加坡2026年经济增速或从高位温和回落 德意志银行：2030年全球AI数据中心支出或达4万亿美元，成本压力加剧 【机构分析】 摩根士丹利：韩元持续升值或需结构性改革落地 ·摩根士丹利利率策略师预计，2026年欧元区11个最大国家的政府债券总发行量将增加约7%，达到1.472 万亿欧元。1月份可能延续往年趋势，成为发行最活跃的月份。策略师指出，尽管年初集中发行模式在 各国间存在差异，但今年情况预计大致相似，仅通过拍卖发行的债券规模就可能达到约950亿至1050亿 欧元。 ·Exness分析师指出，市场在美联储关键政策周前保持观望，即将公布的经济数据将主导美元与利率前 景。投资者对委内瑞拉局势反应平淡，焦点转向本周美联储官员讲话，有关通胀与就业的信号或引发汇 市与债市波动。 ·丹斯克银行策略师指出，15-20年期国债正取代30年期成为欧元区长端债券新热点，受荷兰养老金改革 推动，欧债发行结构正向该期限区间倾斜。 ·摩根士丹利策略师指出，AI数据中心大规模投资正推高芯片与电力成本，预计美国通胀在2027年底前 将持续高于美联储2%目标。 ·英杰华投资集团警示，AI热潮叠加欧美日财政刺激将加剧通胀压力，各 ...

U.S. stock indexes, where seven tech groups contributed half of all market earnings this year, made double-digit gains in 2025 to hit record highs as exuberance about AI and monetary easing also propelled European and Asian equities to record peaks.Expectations for further rate cuts have buoyed bonds too, handing U.S. Treasury investors the best annual performance for five years as inflation ‌retreated, although it remains above ‌the Federal Reserve's average 2% target.For 2026, waves of government stimulu ...

Treasuries rose to kick off the week after a report signaled a weakening US economy, with investors targeting a move in the benchmark 10-year yield below 4% in the coming weeks. Yields closed three to four basis points lower, with the 10 year at 4.16%, following an unexpected drop in the December ISM manufacturing gauge. Yields whipsawed throughout the day in the wake of the US capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro over the weekend and gyrations in oil prices. The ISM gauge drew a “measured resp ...

Key Points The U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times in 2025, which followed three cuts in 2024. Inflation remains elevated, which would normally prevent further reductions, but the soaring unemployment rate is forcing the Fed's hand. Most policymakers at the Fed foresee at least one more interest rate cut in 2026, while Wall Street is looking for two. 10 stocks we like better than S&P 500 Index › The artificial intelligence (AI) boom continued to create trillions of dollars in val ...

TOKYO, Jan 5 (Reuters) - Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Monday the central bank will continue ​to raise interest rates if economic and price developments move ‌in line with its forecasts. Japan's economy sustained a moderate recovery last year despite the hit ‌to corporate profits from higher U.S. tariffs, Ueda said in a speech delivered to the country's banking sector lobby. "Wages and prices are highly likely to rise together moderately," Ueda said, adding that adjusting the degree of ⁠monet ...

Core Viewpoint - Global stock markets are experiencing a surge due to AI enthusiasm, but there is a significant risk of rising inflation that could undermine this growth [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current market rally is largely driven by investments in technology, particularly in artificial intelligence [1] - The tech investment boom is contributing to inflationary pressures, which may not be fully accounted for by investors [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - A surge in inflation could pose a threat to the sustainability of the current stock market highs [1] - Investors may need to reassess their strategies in light of potential inflationary trends stemming from the tech sector [1]