Economic Overview - Canadian GDP data for July and flash estimates for August will provide insights into the economic recovery after a 1.6% contraction from April to June due to the US tariff war [1] - The US economy shows early signs of recovery, with August spending data expected to indicate brisk consumer spending despite tepid income growth [2] Federal Reserve Insights - Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated a cooling labor market as a reason for the first interest rate cut of the year, while remaining vigilant on inflation amid ongoing tariff impacts [4] - A report is anticipated to show a slower growth rate in the personal consumption expenditures price index, providing the Fed some leeway to address labor market weaknesses [5] Central Bank Activities - Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem will discuss trade upheaval's effects on inflation and rates, while Statistics Canada will release population estimates amid post-pandemic immigration challenges [6] - Several central banks, including those in Sweden, Switzerland, and Hungary, are expected to maintain current rates, while Mexico and Nigeria are likely to implement cuts [7] Global Economic Indicators - Flash purchasing manager indexes (PMIs) in Asia and Europe will be closely monitored, with key readings from Australia and India expected to show service sector momentum [9] - Japan's midweek PMIs and retail sales data will provide insights into household spending, critical for the Bank of Japan's policy discussions [10] China Economic Data - China's August industrial profits will be reported, assessing corporate earnings stability after months of deflationary pressure, with government spending growth slowing [11] Latin America Economic Developments - Brazil's central bank will release minutes from its recent rate-setting meeting, maintaining a key rate of 15% amid high inflation [19] - Mexico is expected to continue its streak of rate cuts, with analysts anticipating a reduction to 7.5% as inflation remains within the central bank's tolerance range [22][23]

Market Performance - US stocks have reached record highs this year, with the S&P 500 Index adding $15 trillion in market value since early April and achieving 27 records in 2025, reflecting a 34% gain over the last five months, primarily driven by Big Tech shares [2][3] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have contributed to a high risk appetite among investors, although there are concerns that the market may have already priced in positive developments, which could lead to stock underperformance if economic growth slows [3][4] Economic Indicators - FedEx Corp. has indicated a potential $1 billion impact from trade volatility and the loss of a key exemption for low-value goods, highlighting the ongoing effects of the global trade war on companies [5] - Economists predict that real US GDP growth will decelerate to 1.5% on an annualized basis in the third quarter, a significant drop from the 3.3% growth reported in the second quarter [6] Investment Sentiment - Analysts at Bloomberg Intelligence suggest that the current economic environment, characterized by middling growth, may present buying opportunities for stocks, as historical trends indicate that such conditions can lead to favorable market performance [7]

The ECB should ensure inflation and economic growth don’t disappoint by lowering rates again in December, Lithuania's Gediminas Simkus says https://t.co/DL5g9EYzXr ...

- If you talk to anyone long enough about the UK, two things usually come up-- football and London. When Tom Wagner was looking for an investment opportunity, he wanted both. In the end, he got one.- It's an interesting story because our adventures in English football actually began with us looking at a London-based Premier League club. It was a great opportunity, and shortly after passing on the opportunity in London, the opportunity to invest in Birmingham City was presented to us, and it proved to be too ...

Market Overview - The market experienced a strong week, particularly for small-cap stocks, with the Russell 2000 hitting a new record high [1] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut of a quarter point provided a boost to the market [1] - Earnings remain strong, suggesting a potential "Goldilocks" economy [1] Investment Strategy - Citigroup recommends a barbell strategy, favoring growth with a cyclical bias [3] - As the Fed eases further, a shift towards small and mid-cap stocks (SMID) is suggested, anticipating an earnings recovery into 2026 due to Fed stimulus [4] - Pullbacks should be aggressively bought into, expecting a strong finish to the year [8] Earnings Analysis - Earnings growth is broadening beyond AI-related companies, with evidence seen in Q2 and expected to continue in Q3 [5] - The S&P 500's capitalization is roughly split, with half attributable to AI-related companies and the other half to economic-sensitive and defensive sectors [6] - Expectations for Q3 earnings are high, requiring strong performance to meet the raised bar [8] S&P 500 Outlook - Citigroup has reached its initial year-end target of 6,600 for the S&P 500 and has a "Super Bowl case" target of 7,200 [8] - Achieving the 7,200 target requires 2026 earnings estimates to increase beyond Citigroup's current estimate of $38 per share for the S&P 500 [9] - The S&P 500's fundamental backdrop is structurally in good shape [11]

Market Outlook - The market is believed to continue its upward trend due to a strong economy and consumer base, despite focus on the Federal Reserve [2] - Consumer sentiment is strong and accelerating, with healthy consumer and corporate credit [3] - Capital markets are experiencing a resurgence, expected to continue for multiple years [3] - While unemployment has slightly increased, it remains at historically low levels [3] - The AI boom continues to gain momentum, presenting opportunities for retail investors to focus on core competencies and specific stocks [4] - October is historically a volatile month, but the absence of substantial leverage in the system suggests that any pullback may be limited [4][5][6][8] - Earnings growth is accelerating, and market participation is broadening, indicating a constructive outlook [9] Investment Strategy - Putnam Investments focuses on individual stock selection rather than broad market plays [10] - Portfolio allocation is closely tied to the S&P 500 sectors [12] - Larger companies ("Goliaths") are seen as winners across various industries due to their scale, operating leverage, and ability to invest in AI [12][13] - Sectors of interest include Amazon, Walmart, Croup, and Co-Star (a commercial real estate data analytics company) [13][14] - The market is considered expensive, but compelling risk-reward opportunities exist at the individual stock level [14]

Market Trends & Economic Outlook - The market may see a similar situation to a year ago with potential for rising inflation and two-year Treasury yields around 35%, possibly moving higher [1] - Economic growth alongside rising inflation isn't necessarily negative [1] - Small caps are potentially underowned, with futures short on Russell, suggesting lower rates could benefit them [1] Investment Strategies & Portfolio Allocation - The firm suggests not being long bonds and considering a lower bond allocation, with alternatives like gold for balance [1] - Diversification is crucial, with potential opportunities in international markets (e g, China) and small caps [1] - Consider diversifying from the "Magnificent Seven" (Mag 7) due to their concentrated exposure [1] Individual Stock Picks & Sector Focus - Axon, a maker of body cams and tasers, is highlighted as a potentially good investment with 30% type growth [1] - AI is a significant theme for the next 3-5 years, but diversification beyond chip manufacturers is recommended, including data centers, cooling systems, and energy companies [1][2] Valuation & Risk Management - Overconcentration in a few AI chip names carries significant risk [2] - The traditional valuation game may not always work, as seen with Nvidia and Broadcom, where earnings eventually justified high valuations [1] - Stocks hitting highs often continue to make new highs, while stocks hitting lows can potentially go to zero [1]

Greek and Spanish output—both of which contracted sharply in the early 2010s—last year grew by 2.3% and 3.2%, respectively. By contrast, Britain, France and Germany stagnated https://t.co/YH9LCCFeFu ...

Market Trends - Retail sales and manufacturing show positive growth, suggesting economic strength [1] - GDP has been revised upwards, indicating a stronger economic outlook [1] - Jobless claims are lower, suggesting the labor market is not weakening as much as feared, and recession predictions may be inaccurate [1] - AI spending is a primary driver of market performance over the past year [1] Fiscal & Monetary Policy - Fiscal policy remains expansionary with continued government spending [1] - Monetary policy is becoming less restrictive, with potential rate cuts [1] - The Federal Reserve's uncertainty about future actions suggests a tendency to follow existing trends [1]

The latest dot plot highlighting the growing division among FOMC members with one member seeing the Fed hiking rates this year. Another who we can probably guess seeing cuts of one and a quarter% over the next two meetings. Joining me now, Muhammad Alerian, Queens College Cambridge president. It's so good to have you here with us in the studio. Muhammad and so I noticed you retweet a comment from Jim Biano, another longtime Fed watcher and investor. and he basically said this meeting was a mess of this late ...