The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.9% in the 12 months through August, as per expectations. In contrast, the figure rose 2.7% in July. CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month (MoM) in August, against the expected 0.3%. In August, Core CPI rose 3.1% YoY as per expectations. The figure rose 0.3% MoM as expected. The CPI data is the most common metric to measure inflation. CPI inflation is now at its highest level since January 2025, which means that Americans are really feeling the pinch. A Mobil gas sta ...

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. consumer prices rose more than expected in August while the annual increase in inflation was the largest in seven months, although the numbers will not prevent an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve next week in the midst of a weakening labor market. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% last month after increasing 0.2% in July, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said on Thursday. In the 12 months through August, the CPI advanced 2.9%, the largest increas ...

Group 1 - The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury was last unchanged at 4.032%, after falling to 4% earlier in the session, while the 30-year Treasury yield increased to 4.688% [1] - The August consumer price index rose by a seasonally adjusted 0.4% for the month, with an annual inflation rate of 2.9%, aligning with economists' expectations [2] - Weekly jobless claims rose to a seasonally adjusted 263,000, exceeding the estimate of 235,000 and increasing by 27,000 from the previous period [2] Group 2 - The recent data indicates limited inflationary impact from the trade war and raises concerns about a weakening labor market, suggesting a potential 25 basis point interest rate cut next week [3] - A surprise decline in the producer price index supports expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut at the upcoming meeting on September 17, with wholesale prices falling by 0.1% month-on-month [3] - Markets are pricing in a September interest rate cut with a 94% probability of a quarter-point cut and a 6% chance of a half-point cut [4]

Core Insights - Consumer inflation increased in August, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 2.9% year-over-year, up from 2.7% in July, and a month-over-month increase of 0.4%, exceeding expectations of 0.3% [1] - The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, remained steady at a 3.1% increase over the past 12 months [2] - Market expectations indicate a strong belief that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by at least a quarter point in the upcoming meeting, driven by concerns over labor market weakness rather than inflation [3][4]

Market Overview - The market is currently experiencing high volatility, described as a "circus," due to events like CPI data release, Oracle React, and Gemini IPO [1] - The advice is to remain calm and avoid overreacting to market fluctuations [1] Interest Rate Expectations - A 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve is largely expected [1] - A CPI below 32% would be needed for the market to feel comfortable with a 50 basis point cut [1] - CPI in the 035%-04% range would raise questions about whether there will be two or three cuts [1] - September rate cut is highly anticipated [1] - Stable inflation is needed to give the Federal Reserve flexibility to address labor market weakness [1] Rubric Analysis - Rubric's stock fell after earnings, presenting a potential buying opportunity [1] - Rubric specializes in ransomware and ransomware recovery, operating as a smaller cybersecurity company focused on data security in the cloud [1] - Rubric is viewed as a potential acquisition target in the next 12-18 months due to consolidation in the tech sector and the growing importance of cybersecurity [1] - As AI heats up, so does the AI threat level [1]

Markets are fully committed to a Fed rate cut this month, with CME data showing investors have priced in a 0% chance of a hold as weak labor figures and softer inflation drive dovish bets. Economists like Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid and UBS’s Paul Donovan cautioned that while headline data supports easing, the details reveal more mixed pressures that Powell will need to weigh. There are few “sure things” when it comes to economics. And yet interest rate traders are 100% convinced a cut is coming at the Fed ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Federal Reserve is mandated to support a healthy jobs market and control inflation by adjusting the federal funds rate based on unemployment and CPI deviations from target levels [1] - Currently, the Fed faces a dilemma as job creation is significantly below expectations while CPI remains above the 2% target, complicating policy decisions [2][10] - Wall Street anticipates an interest rate cut at the upcoming Fed meeting on September 16 and 17, despite the conflicting economic indicators [3][9] Group 2 - The CPI surged by 8% in 2022, marking a 40-year high due to pandemic-related stimulus and supply chain issues, which negatively impacted consumer spending and corporate profits [5] - In response, the Fed raised the effective federal funds rate from 0.1% to 5.33% over 18 months, successfully reducing CPI to 4.1% in 2023 and trending towards the 2% target [6][7] - The Fed has not yet cut interest rates in 2025, but a weakening job market may necessitate action in the near future [9][10] Group 3 - The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the U.S. economy added 73,000 jobs in July, falling short of the 110,000 estimate, with prior months' job numbers revised down by 258,000, indicating worse economic performance than expected [11]

Market Performance - Wall Street experienced a record-setting day with the S&P 500 rising 0.8%, marking an all-time high for the third consecutive day [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 617 points, or 1.4%, while the Nasdaq composite gained 0.7%, both reaching record levels [1] Economic Indicators - Treasury yields decreased following the release of mixed U.S. economic data, which may influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates [2] - An increase in unemployment benefit applications suggests a potential rise in layoffs, indicating a slowdown in the job market [3] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates for the first time this year, as the labor market's weakness is seen as a more pressing issue than inflation [2][6] - Inflation rates for U.S. households rose by 2.9% in August compared to the previous year, slightly up from July's 2.7% [5] Sector Impact - Stocks of companies likely to benefit from lower interest rates, such as real estate and homebuilders, saw significant gains, with Builders FirstSource rising by 4.5% [7]

Core Insights - JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has expressed concerns about the U.S. economy, indicating signs of a slowdown following a significant revision in job data by the Labor Department [2][3] Economic Outlook - Dimon stated that the U.S. economy is showing signs of "slowing down," with a revision of nonfarm payrolls data reducing the job count by 911,000 compared to earlier estimates, marking the largest revision in over 20 years [2][6] - The current economic environment features a weakening consumer sentiment despite strong corporate profits, suggesting a mixed economic outlook [4] Federal Reserve Actions - Dimon indicated that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut its benchmark interest rate in the next meeting, although he expressed skepticism about the potential impact of such a move on the economy [5] Labor Market Concerns - The unexpected downward revision in job data has raised alarms regarding the strength of the U.S. labor market, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics revealing an overstatement of job growth by 911,000 for the year through March 2025 [6][7]

Group 1 - President Trump's nomination of Steven Myron to the Federal Reserve has passed a Senate committee vote, moving towards a Senate-wide confirmation vote [1] - Lisa Cook remains at the Federal Reserve for now, despite being fired by President Trump, due to a judge's temporary block related to mortgage fraud allegations [2][10] - The labor market data is deemed unreliable, prompting Trump's team to call for significant interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [3][21] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's policies have historically favored big businesses and wealthy individuals, raising concerns about their accountability to the general public [5][9] - There is a call for the Federal Reserve to refocus its goals to better serve Main Street rather than just Wall Street [9][16] - The judge's ruling suggests that Cook's reinstatement is necessary to maintain the Federal Reserve's independence and credibility [10][11] Group 3 - The discussion highlights the need for the Federal Reserve to reduce its influence and return to its core functions, as it has strayed from its intended role since the 2008 financial crisis [21][24] - The potential for future bailouts is acknowledged, with concerns about moral hazard and the implications of continued Federal Reserve interventions [19][28] - The Fed's dual mandate of employment and stable prices is questioned, with suggestions that it has expanded its powers beyond its original scope [26][27]