The charts are telling a bullish signal for stocks. We're joined now by Jeff Degraph. He's chairman of Renaissance Macro.It's good to see you, cowboy. >> Good to see you, Scott. Thank you.>> Nice backdrop. >> I'll tell you, if you're if you're coming out west, don't come to ski. I'll tell you, it's better to suntan than it is to ski this year.So, >> I heard actually there was there was no snow, but there's beauty. >> That is for darn sure. >> Indeed.>> All right. So, I I painted this as a bullish signal in ...

So that's Tim Orbanowitz. He is the chief investment strategist at Innovator Capital Management. Tim, I've got to imagine, listen, that's Apollo.They've got their own thing. But it can't be a bad idea for your clients to have a little cash. What do they call it.Dry powder. Kelly said when things go down, they can buy them or should they be 100% invested right now. >> Well, Brian, you always want to be focused on managing risk.That that is front and center no matter what we're doing, especially when we we we ...

Market Outlook & Investment Strategy - Innovator Capital Management believes 2026 will be a unique year for investors, with consumers benefiting from tax cuts retroactively from 2025 and less withholding in 2026 [2][3] - The firm anticipates consumer spending will drive the economy and potentially push the S&P 500 to a target of 7,600 [3] - Managing risk remains a central focus for the firm, especially when considering the market outlook [2] - The firm is optimistic but not wildly so, projecting an S&P 500 target that aligns with historical market returns of approximately 8% plus dividend yield to reach about 11% [10] Consumer & Economic Factors - Consumer confidence has been low, but recent data shows signs of improvement, potentially driven by tax cuts [5] - Affordability is a major concern, particularly regarding high home prices, which have increased significantly since 2018 [7] - The impact of previous Federal Reserve interest rate cuts is expected to gradually influence the economy, potentially aiding with home prices [8] - Wage growth is slowing down, which could lead to a decrease in inflation, providing relief to consumers [9] Sector & Valuation Analysis - Discretionary and staples sectors have underperformed, but the firm believes they could experience a resurgence due to increased consumer spending [5][6] - Early bull market rallies are driven by valuation expansion, but the focus is shifting to earnings growth, particularly in 2026 [11][12] - The firm anticipates a slight contraction in valuations this year, emphasizing the importance of focusing on earnings growth [13]

Core Insights - Nvidia Corp (NVDA) remains a popular choice in the options market, consistently appearing on the list of stocks with the highest options volume [1] - In the last two weeks, NVDA led with over 28.6 million calls and 17.2 million puts traded, amidst significant volatility in the tech sector [2][3] - The stock is experiencing upward momentum, with a recent increase of 1.4% to $183.53, supported by a strong performance year-to-date [5] Options Activity - NVDA's 10-day call volume reached 28,667,524, while put volume was 17,195,031, totaling 45,862,555 options traded [3] - The most popular options contracts were the December 180 call and the weekly 12/12 185-strike call [2] Market Performance - Nvidia's shares are on track for their third consecutive gain, bouncing off a support level around $170, which has held since August [5] - The stock has only experienced four monthly losses in 2025, reflecting a year-to-date gain of 36.4% [5] Volatility and Pricing - Options for NVDA are currently affordably priced, indicated by a Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 35%, which is higher than only 2% of annual readings [6]

AI. Market records. Tariffs. Penguins. TACO.It's been a big year of economic shocks and surges as the international framework of global trade was shredded.In other major news, a company famous for making gaming PC chips became the world's most valuable, and Australia's key interest rate stuttered downwards then flatlined.George Tharenou, chief economist for Australia at investment bank UBS, was in New York during April's so-called "liberation day", when US President Donald Trump revealed a sweeping regime o ...

Paraguay’s central bank kept its benchmark interest rate steady at 6%, reiterating that inflation will converge with its target in 2026. https://t.co/oxf0bwVTQm ...

Economic Outlook - The White House is preparing to launch phase two of President Trump's economic initiatives, focusing on housing affordability and tax refunds [1][2] - Vice President JD Vance acknowledges public impatience regarding economic conditions while emphasizing the need for caution [2] Housing Affordability - Kevin Hasset indicates that top advisors are developing a comprehensive list of proposals aimed at improving housing affordability, which remains a significant concern for American families [2][11] - The Trump administration is reportedly working on housing proposals that have received approval from cabinet secretaries, with plans to reveal them soon [11][18] - Current mortgage rates are around 6.2%, with potential for a reduction in the near future, which could positively impact the housing market [13][15] Inflation and Consumer Spending - Recent data shows that rental growth has stagnated, with no increase in rental payments recorded in October 2025 for the first time in three and a half years, particularly in cities like Austin, Phoenix, Miami, and Orlando [31][32] - The decrease in rental prices is expected to boost disposable income for consumers, leading to increased spending at major retailers like Walmart and Target [33] Market Performance - The S&P 500 is nearing a record high, indicating positive sentiment in the market, which could benefit workers and the overall economy [26][27] - Nvidia and Micron are highlighted as companies benefiting from potential policy changes regarding chip access to China, reflecting the administration's strategy to support American businesses [29]

美国总统特朗普今年"钦点"的美联储理事米兰（Stephen Miran）警告，除非美联储明年继续降息，否则 美国经济将面临衰退的风险。这一表态与多位美联储官员近期的谨慎立场形成鲜明对比，凸显联储内部 在利率政策路径上的深度分化。 美东时间22日周一，米兰在接受采访时表示："如果我们不调整政策，我们将面临日益严重的经济衰退 风险。" 他强调，失业率已经上升到超出预期的水平，这些数据应该会促使美联储决策者向鸽派方向转 变。 米兰同时表示，他尚未决定在明年1月的下次美联储货币政策委员会FOMC会议上支持降息25个基点还 是50个基点，但认为可能还需要几次降息。他还说，"我认为短期内不会出现经济衰退"，不过上升的失 业率应促使美联储官员继续降息。 米兰的表态与近期其他的美联储官员截然不同。他讲话一天前，上周日公布的访谈显示，明年拥有 FOMC会议投票权的克利夫兰联储主席哈玛克（Beth Hammack）表示，暂停降息是她目前的基本预 期。纽约联储主席威廉姆斯、波士顿联储主席柯林斯和理事沃勒上周也都表达了更为谨慎的立场。 米兰主张继续降息以防经济恶化 米兰本周一在接受彭博电视采访时详细阐述了他对货币政策的看法。他指出： ...

Coming to the economy. Investors are watching for signals from policymakers heading into a key year for the Federal Reserve, with a new chair expected to be announced soon. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack among those, preferring to hold rates higher for longer.Well, our next guest is taking the other side, voting for a 50 basis point cut at the Fed's last meeting. Joining us now is Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Myron. Very good morning to you, Stephen.Thank you so much for joining us. Good morning. ...

The price of bitcoin could surge past $170,000 in 2026 if the Federal Reserve loses control of the economy and reverts to aggressive stimulus, according to CoinShares' latest outlook report. The digital asset manager outlined three macro scenarios for next year. These included bitcoin price targets ranging from a low of $70,000 in a stagflation environment to highs above $170,000 if recession forces the Fed into panic-mode easing, according to the CoinShares Digital Assets 2026 Outlook report. The base case ...