Stanley Druckenmiller's protégé, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, is stirring fresh debate on Wall Street with his latest read on tariffs and trade in a CNBC Squawk Box interview. At first glance, a narrowing U.S. trade deficit with China looks like a policy win, but Bessent warns it could have unintended market consequences.Track U.S. stocks via SPY here.If tariffs force China to buy fewer U.S. goods or push supply chains elsewhere, the resulting capital flows could boost the dollar — and that's bad news ...

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he believes the US and China can reach a final deal before the tariff pause expires in November. China Beige Book international managing director Shehzad Qazi joins Market Catalysts with Julie Hyman to explain what China's improving economy could mean for US trade negotiations moving forward. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Catalysts here: https://finance.yahoo.com/videos/series/market-catalysts/ #youtube #st ...

US retail sales showed surprising strength during the back-to-school season – a sign that Trump’s tariffs haven’t yet cowed shoppers as the Federal Reserve weighs a decision on cutting rates.Excluding cars, retail sales rose 0.7% in August from the previous month– far above estimates of a 0.4% rise, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. Overall retail sales increased 0.6%.The upbeat report defied projections of a spending slump last month as hiring slowed and inflation picked up. Consumers have continued to ...

Group 1 - Coffee futures prices are nearing an all-time high due to U.S. tariffs and dry weather in Brazil, impacting production [1][6] - Arabica coffee futures reached a session high of $4.24 per pound, a seven-month peak, before closing down 2% at $4.0935 per pound [2][3] - The price of arabica coffee has surged approximately 50% since the imposition of a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports at the end of July [3][4] Group 2 - Roasted coffee prices in U.S. grocery stores increased by 20.9% in August compared to the previous year, contributing to high food prices [3] - The U.S. coffee industry has been slow to hedge against price fluctuations due to the tariff situation, leading to increased buying from speculative funds [4][5] - Concerns about Brazil's dry weather are affecting the supply chain, with rains needed to support the flowering phase of coffee trees [6]

Group 1 - India described its latest trade talks with the U.S. as "positive" following the imposition of 50% tariffs on Indian imports by President Trump [1] - The discussions were characterized as varied and "forward-looking," aiming for a mutually beneficial trade agreement [2] - A U.S. delegation met with Indian counterparts in New Delhi, but it remains unclear if Trump's tariffs were discussed [4] Group 2 - India has not agreed to Trump's demands regarding trade negotiations and previously canceled talks scheduled for late August [5] - The U.S. and India are expected to hold another round of trade negotiations, marking the sixth round since the implementation of sweeping tariffs [7] - India has resisted opening its farm and dairy markets to U.S. products, concerned about the impact on approximately 80 million Indian farmers [8] Group 3 - The higher tariffs have already impacted trade, with Indian exports to the U.S. falling to $6.86 billion in August from $8 billion in July [10]

Geopolitical Relations - US President Donald Trump spoke with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi [1] - The conversation aims to potentially ease tensions between the US and India [1] Trade and Economy - Tensions exist between the two major economies due to tariffs [1] - India's purchases of Russian oil contribute to the tensions [1]

Market Overview - The major indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) gaining 0.1% to close at 45,883.45 points, the S&P 500 (SPX) rising 0.5% to an all-time high of 6,615.28 points, and the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) climbing 0.9% to a record close of 22,348.75 points [2] - The S&P 500's advance of 10.32% during the first 164 sessions of Trump's second term is nearly identical to the 10.37% rise during the same period in his first term [2] TikTok Deal - A deal was announced to keep TikTok operating in the U.S., involving the transfer of its U.S. assets from ByteDance to American owners, which President Trump described as an "upgrade for both countries" [3] - Oracle (ORCL) shares surged as much as 5% in premarket trading following news of its likely involvement in the TikTok deal, with shares up more than 3% by Tuesday morning [4] - The deal is expected to close within 30 to 45 days and could signify a breakthrough in the U.S.-China trade war [4] Legal Actions - President Trump filed a $15 billion defamation lawsuit against The New York Times (NYT), claiming a "decades-long pattern" of defamation against him and his movement [5] - Following the lawsuit announcement, shares of The New York Times Company fell 2.4% [6] - This lawsuit marks the fourth multibillion-dollar legal action Trump has taken against media companies since returning to office [6] Corporate Reporting Changes - President Trump proposed shifting U.S. corporate reporting from quarterly to semi-annual, arguing it would save money and allow better management focus [7] - Analysts predict a 60% chance that this shift could become a reality, indicating a potential reversal of decades-old SEC policy [7] Tariff Policies - President Trump has threatened to impose tariffs of 50-100% on Chinese goods as part of his foreign policy strategy [8] - U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated that new tariffs on Chinese goods related to Russian oil purchases would be held off if European countries impose significant duties [8] - The market has shown resilience to tariff announcements, with retail sales rising 0.6% in August despite ongoing inflation concerns [8] Conclusion - The market remains in a state of high-stakes drama influenced by Trump's policies, legal actions, and international trade negotiations, creating a dynamic environment for investors [9]

The stock market set new highs last week as measures of the economy, like job creation, continued to cool.Some charts from September's research notes, news articles, and blogs caught my eye. Instead of publishing a series of newsletters, I figured I'd do a lightning round here.The stock market is not the economyThe U.S. stock market and the U.S. economy are closely intertwined. Yet the makeup of earnings per share (EPS), which drives stock prices, differs in several key ways from the makeup of GDP.From Well ...

Economic Growth Forecast - The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta upgraded its economic growth forecast by 0.3 percentage points, predicting a 3.4% annualized gain in GDP during Q3 [3] Consumer Spending Trends - Consumer spending, which accounts for approximately 70% of economic growth, has remained steady despite rising price pressures, a slowdown in hiring, and an increase in unemployment to 4.3% [3] - Spending surged early in the year due to consumers anticipating price increases from high U.S. tariffs, but this trend has waned since May, leading to a modest slowdown in spending [4] Retail Sales Performance - Retail sales exceeded forecasts in August, rising by 0.6% for the third consecutive month, despite job market weaknesses and declining consumer sentiment [7] - Nine out of 13 categories of goods saw gains, with e-commerce sales increasing by 2% and sales at clothing stores and sporting goods shops rising by 1% and 0.8%, respectively [7] Impact of Tariffs - Import taxes have negatively impacted sales, particularly in categories vulnerable to tariffs, such as sports equipment, electronics, and clothing [5] - One in four small businesses reported that tariffs and rising costs have led them to increase prices, indicating consumer anxiety regarding import taxes fueling price gains [6]

Holly Newman Croft. Welcome back, Holly. Good to have you.Thanks. Good to be here as always. It's quite a setup for Fed day with the stock market at record highs, the 10-year yield back down to 4%, gold up 40% into the year.H how do you view the risk award into the Fed. I think what's really interesting is how the shift in focus from the market has been on inflation and what the Fed's going to do to now a weakening labor market in a slowing economy and what the Fed is going to do. The bond market is telling ...