for more on the crypto markets this morning uh and his view on the Fed and just just about everything. Joining us right now in an exclusive interview is Galaxy CEO Mike Novagrats. Good morning to you, Mike.Uh we got the Genius Act behind us. Uh there's so many things going on now in the marketplace around crypto, around Bitcoin, around tokenizing things. We just talked to Dina Freeman about that.We got the Fed and everything else. So let's let's start though. I want to start on the Bitcoin front because I t ...

On this episode of Trumponomics, we discuss whether Jerome Powell has overestimated the risk of inflation stemming from the US trade war https://t.co/RPxOJS0sGp ...

Market Outlook - The equity market is expected to perform strongly in the next three to four weeks due to better-than-expected Q2 economic data and unrealized worst-case scenario risks [2] - AI supply chain support is contributing to market broadening [2] - The market is expected to continue climbing the "wall of worry" in the near term [2] Risks and Concerns - Tariff risks are expected to manifest in economic data over the next few quarters [2] - Tightening labor supply due to immigration policies poses a risk to the market's interest rate sensitivity in the second half of the year [6] - Inflation is expected to accelerate in Q3 and Q4 due to new and holiday ordering, and the clearing of pre-tariff inventory backlogs [5] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve (Fed) might cut rates once this year, despite data suggesting they could have already cut twice [7] - Moderate tariffs are considered more inflationary than severe tariffs because they allow companies to pass on higher costs or absorb margin hits without demand destruction [9][10][11] - Tightening labor supply will likely cause the unemployment rate to move lower in the second half of the year [11] - Easy financial conditions, including strong equity markets and tight credit spreads, suggest the Fed does not need to cut rates assertively [12]

Fed Independence and Political Pressure - Markets rely on the Fed's independence and commitment to price stability and maximum employment [3] - Historical examples show that presidential pressure on the Fed can lead to stagflation [6][7] - Concerns exist regarding potential Fed chair candidates expressing opinions on future monetary policy [17] - A "shadow Fed chair" is a dangerous idea that impairs the credibility of the actual Fed chair [23][24] Economic Outlook and Policy Concerns - The economy is resilient, but concerns exist about future tariff policies [25][26] - Tariffs could lead to increased inflation and decreased household incomes [27][29] - Softness is developing in the labor market, with average job creation around 150,000 jobs per month [28] - Concerns exist about weaknesses in the legislation regarding stable coins and their potential financial stability risks [34] Monetary Policy and Inflation - The Fed's goal is price stability, aiming for 2% inflation, and maximum employment [3][12][15] - Lowering interest rates to ease financing costs on federal debt is not a congressionally mandated goal and is dangerous [3][15] - High inflation is an inevitable consequence when pressure drives monetary policy [3] Fed Leadership and Transition - The President should choose a Fed chair who believes in and will defend the Fed's independence [14] - The next Fed chair should make fact-based judgments based on economic trends and the congressionally mandated goals [15] - The current Fed chair is committed to the Fed's independence and should fulfill his term [31][32]

Fed Independence and Market Reaction - Market reaction to potential Fed Chair ouster includes a decline in the dollar's exchange value, an increase in longer-term interest rates, and a stock market decline [2] - Markets rely on the Fed's independence and commitment to price stability and maximum employment when assessing the US economy [3] - Presidential pressure on the Fed to lower interest rates for government financing purposes is disconcerting to markets and can lead to high inflation [3] Historical Context of Fed Independence - Historically, presidents have attempted to pressure Fed chairs, such as LBJ and William Martin in 1965 [5][6] - Richard Nixon's pressure on Arthur Burns led to stagflation, weak growth, high unemployment, and high inflation [7] - Fed's track record over many decades has been successful in maintaining low and stable inflation [12] Current Economic Situation - The US post-pandemic experience saw a surge in price pressures, similar to other developed countries [13] - Inflation is coming down and is close to the Fed's 2% goal, with a strong labor market at 41% unemployment [13] Fed Leadership and Political Influence - Many Fed chairs have had past experience in the White House, which is natural as presidents gain confidence in their judgment [10] - Fed chairs should make fact-based judgments and pursue congressionally mandated goals of price stability and maximum employment [10][11] - Fed chairs need to stay out of politics and avoid succumbing to short-term political pressures, behaving in a nonpartisan way [12]

Market Performance & Trends - The S&P 500, NASDAQ Composite, and NASDAQ 100 reached fresh records, while the Dow barely closed in the red and small caps fell by approximately 025% [2][3] - The 10-year Treasury note yield decreased by 6 basis points to 437%, and the 30-year yield also decreased by 6 basis points, remaining below 5% [4] - The US dollar index decreased by approximately 067%, a significant amount for a major currency [4] - Communication services showed the strongest performance, increasing by 137%, while energy declined by more than 1% [4] - Investors are becoming more comfortable with the resilience of the US economy, supported by strong retail sales and low jobless claims [7][8] - The market reaction to tariff headlines has diminished, with the S&P 500 and tariff-related stocks showing minimal movement in response to recent tariff news [32] Company Specific News - Trump Media Technology Group revealed approximately $2 billion in Bitcoin holdings, representing about two-thirds of their balance sheet [12][13] - Taiwan Semiconductor's largest client is Nvidia, and Taiwan Semiconductor lifted their full-year guidance by 30% [20][21] - NATO countries have committed to spend up to 5% of their GDP on defense spending over the next decade, and the European Union plans to spend $840 billion over the next four years on defense [22] - Nisource, a multi-utility company and one of the largest distributors of natural gas, has a dividend yield of nearly 3% and is considered a backdoor play into the AI revolution [26][27] - Coca-Cola is expected to report less growth in Q2 due to a slowdown in price increases, and General Motors is expected to report earnings in line with analyst estimates [63][64] Economic Outlook & Federal Reserve - The US economy is showing signs of regaining its strength, with consumer confidence and spending rebounding, and major financial institutions no longer anticipating a recession [43] - The Federal Reserve's summary of economic projections in June indicated a potential slowdown to 14% by the end of the year, with unemployment rising to 45% and core PCE inflation rising to 31% [47] - The market is currently pricing in approximately two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve for the remainder of the year, potentially in September and October [60]

did say something like we should there should be some sort of investigation into the Fed's efficacy and track record. What do do you do you have questions about that just in terms of targeting inflation. I mean they were late. They were late.They thought inflation was transitory. Now it's not clear whether they're late uh when it comes to cutting rates again. But issues like that them using certain models, academic, PhD economists, the group think are are there are there real questions to ask around all thi ...

🎙️ #KseniaConnects Quick Take - We caught up with Youssef Gabsi from @Tangem to ask:"How do macroeconomic factors like inflation and central bank policies impact the crypto market?" 📉💰📈Don’t miss it! Watch now👇#CryptoInsights #CryptoMarket https://t.co/ew1O6yacJN ...

Federal Reserve Assessment - The speaker suggests examining the entire Federal Reserve institution to assess its success [1] - The speaker questions whether the Federal Reserve has succeeded in its mission, drawing a parallel to the FAA and suggesting a need to investigate mistakes [2] - The speaker criticizes the Federal Reserve for not being able to break out of a certain mindset, questioning the work of its PhD economists [3] Monetary Policy & Regulation - The Federal Reserve deals with monetary policy, regulations, and financial stability [2] - The speaker is scheduled to be the keynote speaker at a regulatory conference, discussing regulation [1] - The speaker notes that despite fear-mongering over tariffs, there has been very little, if any, inflation, and that inflation numbers have been great [2][3]

🎙️ #KseniaConnects Quick Take - We caught up with Daria Bystrova from @Tangem to ask:"How do macroeconomic factors like inflation and central bank policies impact the crypto market?" 📉💰📈Don’t miss it! Watch now👇#CryptoInsights #CryptoMarket https://t.co/tmmspyBoIb ...