Group 1 - The dollar index fell by -0.69%, reaching a 2.5-month low, primarily due to expectations of a -25 basis point interest rate cut by the Fed [1] - US retail sales in August rose by +0.6% month-over-month, exceeding expectations of +0.2%, while retail sales excluding autos increased by +0.7% month-over-month, stronger than the anticipated +0.4% [3] - The markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting, with an overall expectation of a -68 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate by year-end [5] Group 2 - Concerns over Fed independence are affecting the dollar, as President Trump attempts to fire Fed Governor Cook, which may lead foreign investors to sell dollar assets [2] - The euro rose by +0.88%, reaching a 4-year high, supported by dollar weakness and central bank divergence, with the ECB seen as nearing the end of its rate-cutting cycle [6] - The US manufacturing production unexpectedly increased by +0.2% month-over-month, contrary to expectations of a -0.2% decline [3]

Rate Cut Expectations - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to announce a rate cut of at least 25 basis points during the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting, marking the first cut since December 2024 [1][2] - There is a 96.1% probability of a 25-basis-point cut according to the CME FedWatch Tool, with a 3.9% chance of a 50-basis-point cut, which would be the largest since September 2024 [2] Economic Indicators - Current economic indicators show inflation, unemployment, and consumer spending are raising concerns, prompting the Fed's decision to consider rate cuts [3] - August retail sales increased by 0.6%, surpassing the consensus estimate of 0.3%, indicating healthy consumer spending [5][6] Market Reactions - Stock market indexes have reached all-time highs, raising questions about whether a 25-basis-point cut will suffice to maintain market momentum or if a larger cut is necessary [7][9] - Experts suggest that the market may experience volatility following the Fed's announcement, with potential sell-offs leading to a rally later in the year [7][8] Future Projections - Attention will be on the Dot Plot during the meeting, which will provide insights into Fed members' projections for growth, inflation, unemployment, and future rate cuts [4][8] - The upcoming FOMC meetings in October and December will be critical for determining additional rate moves or the first cut of 2025 [3]

All right, welcome back to Power Lunch. Let's talk about tomorrow's big Federal Reserve meeting and maybe one group of stocks that could benefit. It is the subject of today's market navigator.That is Dom Chu. What is on the market navigator. All right, so as we talk about tomorrow, the Fed is all but certain to cut interest rates by at least one quarter of 1%.But our next guest says that bank stocks are going to stand to benefit from a rate cut and says that in fact the sector has been overlooked and could ...

Weak economic growth and labor-market softness are on center stage for the central bank, overtaking inflation concerns. ...

LOGIN SUBSCRIBE advertisement BYÂ Reuters Listen to this ArticleMore info 0:00 / 0:00 An "everything rally†in markets greets the start of a two-day Federal Reserve meeting, with stocks at record highs, bond yields subsiding and a two-month low dollar taking the heat ahead of what is widely expected to be the first U.S. interest rate cut of the year. A quarter point Fed rate cut on Wednesday is fully priced. But the spotlight is as much on the central bank's institutional standing as on the policy call itsel ...

America's largest group of homebuilders is feeling good about where the housing market is headed. That's because everyone seems confident that the Fed is poised to cut interest rates for the first time in 2025 this week, the National Association of Homebuilders wrote in a note Tuesday.That's expected to lower borrowing costs for buyers—a much-needed catalyst for the US housing market to reopen after years of higher mortgage rates that have sidelined buyers and sellers. The Fed looks poised to trim its ta ...

US stocks pulled back from records on Tuesday as the Federal Reserve kicked off its September policy meeting. The benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) fell around 0.1% and 0.15%, respectively, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) dipped nearly 0.3%. In an otherwise light week on economic data, investors received the latest figures on retail sales on Tuesday showing strong consumer spending despite sticky inflation and a wobbly labor market. Retail sales in August ...

Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates, with a consensus leaning towards a 25 basis points reduction, although a 50 basis points cut would be more beneficial for the economy [2][4] - The job market is showing signs of weakness, and there is a significant lack of discussion regarding the housing market, which is affecting young families' ability to afford homes [3][4] Housing Market - The current real estate market is characterized by high demand and low supply, leading to unprecedented affordability issues for young families [4] - Despite high mortgage rates, home prices have not decreased as typically expected, exacerbating the affordability crisis [4] Tariffs and Inflation - The justification for maintaining high interest rates due to tariffs is questioned, as tariffs are viewed as a one-time price increase rather than a continuous inflationary factor [5][6] - The economic environment is complex, with uncertainty surrounding tariff strategies impacting small businesses and hiring [7][8] Employment and Investment - There is optimism regarding a resurgence in hiring by the end of the year, although the current market conditions are weak [9] - Foreign investment and reshoring of manufacturing to the U.S. are anticipated to positively influence the economy [8][9]

Market Overview - U.S. stock futures are showing modest gains as investors anticipate a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, contributing to positive sentiment following record-setting sessions for technology-heavy indexes [1][2] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at new all-time highs, with the S&P 500 up 0.47% to 6,615 and the Nasdaq up approximately 0.9% to 22,349 [4] Economic Indicators - The 10-year Treasury yield has dipped 2 basis points to 4.04%, making equities more attractive [3] - Key economic data releases include August U.S. Retail Sales, expected to rise by 0.3%, and Import and Export Prices, anticipated to decline by 0.2% [6] Corporate Earnings - Ferguson Enterprises Inc. and several other companies are set to report earnings, including Evolution Petroleum Corp, Ispire Technology Inc, NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust, and US Gold Corp [7] Notable Stock Movements - Tesla Inc. shares rose 3.6% on Monday after CEO Elon Musk acquired over $1 billion in stock, continuing to rise by 2.5% in premarket [8][9] - Alphabet Inc. saw a significant 4% increase, reaching a market capitalization of over $3 trillion, making it the best-performing stock among the "Magnificent Seven" [13] - Seagate Technology Holdings Plc rallied over 7% following a price target upgrade from Bank of America, while Western Digital also saw a more than 4% increase [13] - Warner Bros Discovery surged 8.41% in premarket trading on reports of a potential $50 billion takeover bid from Paramount Skydance [13]

Market Overview - U.S. stock index futures showed slight increases, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching record highs, driven by investor expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [1][4] - Investors are anticipating a 25 basis point cut from the Federal Reserve at the conclusion of its two-day meeting, aimed at addressing the decline in the U.S. labor market [1][2] Economic Indicators - The Senate confirmed Stephen Miran as an economic adviser to the Fed, while a court rejected Trump's attempt to dismiss Fed Governor Lisa Cook, maintaining rate cut expectations [2] - An upcoming retail sales report for August is expected to provide insights into U.S. consumer health ahead of the Fed's decision [3] Company Performance - Oracle's stock rose by 3.8% in premarket trading, as it is part of a consortium that may allow TikTok to continue operations in the U.S. if a deal is reached [3] - Tesla and Alphabet contributed to the record highs of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, with Alphabet's market valuation surpassing $3 trillion for the first time [4] - Dave & Buster's Entertainment saw a significant decline of 17.7% after missing revenue and profit expectations for the second quarter [5] - Chipotle Mexican Grill's stock increased by 1.9% following an announcement to raise its share buyback authorization [5]