Fed Chair Nomination Context - Betting markets indicate a 34% chance that no Fed chair successor will be announced before December, while Powell's term ends in May 2026 [5] - Historically, the lead time between announcing a Fed chair successor and their assuming office is about 2 to 4 months [6] - Markets are forward-looking, so traders and investors will begin pricing in the newcomers policy leanings [7] Leading Candidates and Their Potential Impact - Christopher Waller is considered a favorite, with his remarks already impacting the 2-year Treasury yield, dropping 20 basis points after a speech [10][12] - A Waller Fed is expected to lead to lower short-term yields, a flatter yield curve, and a lighter dollar, potentially benefiting stocks and crypto [15][16] - Kevin Walsh is viewed as more hawkish, advocating for avoiding rate cuts until inflation is firmly on a sustained path back to target [21][23] - A Walsh chairmanship could lead to a stronger dollar, growth stocks down, and a scramble out of risk assets, with restrictive policy rates potentially weighing down crypto [26][27] - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant expects a rate cut by September and is implementing measures to keep long-term interest rates from rising, potentially creating a risk-on environment [30][36] - Kevin Hasset advocates for rate cuts to support GDP growth, potentially leading to a weaker dollar and a market-wide rally for stocks and crypto [40][41] Wild Card Candidates - David Malpass, a former World Bank president, argues the Fed is behind the curve on cutting interest rates [42][43] - Fed Governor Michelle Bowman has expressed support for a July rate cut if inflation stays subdued [44] Market Volatility - The announcement of the next Fed chair, or even the teasing of the decision, is expected to cause bursts of volatility [48]

And of course, if Fed share steps down, you can better believe that the person that is going to be put into that chair is going to be pretty much pro cut rates and cut rates fast. Uh, as a reminder, of course, the Fed chair is only one person. It is a governorship.Uh, there are other parts of uh of the board. So, it's not because just one person's out, but you can see how like the the chair would kind of dictate the uh the direction. Just take a look at Gary Gendzer.Regardless, this happens, there will be r ...

It looks like Jerome Powell of the Federal Reserve is going to resign. Also, Day 2 of our bitcoin and altcoin rally and things are NOT SLOWING DOWN. Tangem Giveaway Post - https://x.com/NewsAsset/status/1942335948273950997 ●▬▬▬▬▬▬CRYPTO CRITICAL VIDEOS▬▬▬▬▬▬▬● 1. THE 5 RULES - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iNBiZ5Bo__U 2. AVOID ALL SCAMS. SOURCE IT - https://youtube.com/live/m77Oxmh70Zc 3. DON'T FALL FOR A.I. SCAMS! - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8m4M0lvP5-o 4. WHY STORAGE DIVERSIFICATION? - https://www ...

Group 1: Bitcoin Market Performance - Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of over $117,000 on July 11, 2025, driven by bullish momentum in risk assets and its correlation with tech stocks like NVIDIA, which recently achieved a $4 trillion valuation [1] - The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) has increased by 15% this year, with a 4.3% gain in the past month, benefiting from favorable policy signals and tightening supply [2] - Bitcoin's recent performance is seen as a pressure release rather than a full-scale bull run, maintaining a tight $10,000 range over the past two months before the breakout [3] Group 2: Regulatory Environment and Institutional Adoption - Bitcoin's breakout coincides with Congress's "Crypto Week," where key regulations, including the GENIUS Act for a federal stablecoin framework, will be debated [4] - Positive outcomes from regulatory discussions may enhance institutional inflows into Bitcoin, with shares of Circle CRCL rising over 500% since their IPO [5] - Corporate adoption of Bitcoin is expanding, with companies like GameStop and Goldman Sachs increasing their Bitcoin ETF holdings, enhancing institutional credibility [8] Group 3: Bitcoin as an Inflation Hedge - Bitcoin is viewed as a hedge against inflation due to its fixed supply cap of 21 million coins, which may help it retain value amid increasing fiat issuance and potential global inflation from tariffs [7] - Bitcoin has gained 26.4% this year, outperforming the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), which gained 7%, showcasing its strength amid market uncertainties [6] Group 4: Interest Rate Outlook - Potential rate cuts later this year could favor risk-on assets like Bitcoin, as lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets [9][10] Group 5: Bitcoin Miners and AI Infrastructure - Bitcoin miners are pivoting to AI infrastructure, leveraging their data centers for more profitable ventures compared to traditional Bitcoin mining [12] - Companies like Bitfarms are well-positioned to meet the rising energy and space demands of AI computing, given their experience in building large facilities [13] Group 6: Investment Products for Risk-Averse Investors - New Bitcoin buffer ETFs have been launched to make Bitcoin more accessible to risk-averse investors, providing downside protection amid volatility [14][15]

are the rate cuts priced in ...

>> I'm really I'm really happy to be back. And I read all the notes that we're going to talk about today. And I think the thing that's fundamentally really important to understand the strategist has a very tricky job.They obviously can't see the future, and they have to think big and they have to think about or shall I. What are things look like, you know, within the next six months, how do we end the year. What are some of the stumbling blocks that we might need to get past.And then what is like the chrono ...

Market Sentiment - The market anticipates the Federal Reserve to rapidly lower interest rates [1] - Rate cuts are perceived as imminent [1]

Market Trends & Sentiment - The market is responding to momentum, led by mega-cap tech stocks [1] - Small caps outperformed, up over 1% [2] - Markets want to go higher in the absence of rockiness, with the VIX sub 16 [3] - The market got a charge from the Fed's potential rate cuts [5] - There's a good setup for the second half of the year with inflation coming down [7] - Retail investors are rushing into riskier areas like Bitcoin and Nvidia [8] Earnings & Growth - Q1 earnings were essentially a pass on uncertainty [2] - Growth is continuing to be strong, defying expectations of a fall [6] Investment Opportunities & Risks - There's still a lot of cash on the sidelines that could re-enter the market as shorter-term rates come down [7] - Nvidia's dominance in the AI space may be chipped away [10] - A company with 125% of sales from China saw its stock rise despite customer concentration risks and customers seeking alternative chip sources [9]

Most Fed Officials Expect 2025 Rate Cuts Despite Tariff Inflation Concerns, Minutes Show https://t.co/U9PT3njd2v https://t.co/U9PT3njd2v ...

Most Fed Officials Expect 2025 Rate Cuts Despite Tariff Inflation Concerns, Minutes Showhttps://t.co/wj5KtixKf9 https://t.co/eIu1oG1usA ...