Core Viewpoint - The upcoming interest rate decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve is critical for the long-term bullish trend of risk-on assets like Bitcoin, with current market conditions indicating a potential rate cut [1][2]. Interest Rate Decision - The interest rate decision on September 17 is significant as it coincides with the S&P 500 index, Bitcoin, and gold reaching near all-time highs [2]. - Core inflation is above 3.10%, and there is a weakening labor market, with a notable annual revision showing a drop of 911,000 from initial estimates [2]. Market Expectations - Current odds for a 25 basis point rate cut are approximately 94% according to CME's FedWatch tool, while prediction market Myriad indicates an 88% chance [3]. Short-term vs Long-term Impacts - Experts agree that a quarter-point rate cut would likely have a long-term bullish impact on risk-on assets, including Bitcoin, but the immediate market reaction will depend on comments made by Fed Chair Powell during the briefing [4]. - Analysts highlight the importance of the dot plot, suggesting that a rate cut without a significant downward revision could lead to a pullback in altcoins due to high open interest [5]. Speculative Activity - Anticipation of a rate cut has led to increased speculative activity, resulting in stretched valuations across various asset classes [6]. - A hawkish surprise from Powell could complicate the Fed's price stability mandate [6]. Bitcoin's Long-term Valuation - Historical data shows that Bitcoin's one-month returns post-rate cut are unpredictable, but three-month estimates indicate a bullish outcome 62% of the time with an average gain of 16.50% [7]. - HashKey Capital projects Bitcoin could reach $700,000 by the end of 2035, assuming a 10% CAGR in gold prices, suggesting a macro narrative of Bitcoin catching up with gold over the next decade [7].

The Federal Reserve is widely expected this week to make its first interest rate cut of 2025, but the bigger question for investors is how many more cuts could be on the way as the central bank contends with a weak job market, sticky inflation, and mounting White House pressure. One clue will come in the form of the Fed's "dot plot," a chart updated quarterly that shows each official's prediction about the direction of the central bank's benchmark interest rate. The last dot plot, released in June, revea ...

LIVE Dow Set to Open Up as Market Focuses on the Fed The Fed is widely expected to resume cutting interest rates, with markets pricing in a 25 basis-point rate reduction, LSEG data show. However, a larger 50 basis-point reduction looks unlikely and Danske Bank analysts said they expect "a more gradual rate-cutting cycle rather than back-to-back cuts." They cited Friday's University of Michigan's consumer confidence survey for September, which showed one- year inflation expectations remained elevated at 4.8% ...

Market Overview - Asian stock markets are mostly trading higher, influenced by mixed signals from Wall Street and cautious sentiment ahead of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1][2] - The Australian stock market is experiencing a modest decline, with the S&P/ASX 200 index falling below 8,850.00 due to weakness in mining stocks [3][4] Key Indices Performance - The S&P/ASX 200 Index is down 30.30 points or 0.34 percent to 8,834.60, while the All Ordinaries Index is down 26.90 points or 0.30 percent to 9,101.80 [4] - The Nasdaq closed up 98.03 points or 0.4 percent at 22,141.10, while the Dow slid 273.78 points or 0.6 percent to 45,834.22 [9] Sector Performance - Oil stocks are mostly higher, with Woodside Energy up 0.2 percent and Santos gaining almost 1 percent, while Beach Energy is down 0.4 percent [5] - Gold miners are facing declines, with Northern Star Resources and Newmont losing almost 2 percent each, and Evolution Mining declining more than 5 percent [6] - Among the big four banks, Commonwealth Bank and ANZ Banking are down almost 1 percent each, while National Australia Bank and Westpac are slightly up [7] Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Concerns over geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict are impacting market sentiment and crude oil prices [10] - The Fed is expected to lower interest rates by at least a quarter point, with a 96.4 percent chance of a 25 basis points cut indicated by the CME Group's FedWatch Tool [2]

Currency Market Overview - Trading in Asia was limited due to Japan's market closure, resulting in mostly rangebound currencies [1] - The euro declined by 0.09% to $1.1724, largely ignoring Fitch's downgrade of France's sovereign credit rating to its lowest level, affecting the euro zone's second-largest economy [1][9] - The dollar steadied at 97.65 against a basket of currencies, despite expectations of a rate cut from the Federal Reserve [4][9] Federal Reserve and Rate Decisions - Investors are focused on upcoming rate decisions from multiple central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, which is expected to announce a 25-basis-point cut [2][5] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell's guidance on future rate cuts will be crucial, with market expectations leaning towards a potential 50-basis-point cut [6][10] - The "dot plot" projections from Fed members will also be significant for market sentiment [5][10] Other Currency Movements - The British pound remained stable at $1.3554, while the Australian dollar approached a 10-month high at $0.6652 [5][9] - The Japanese yen slightly strengthened to 147.56 per dollar ahead of the Bank of Japan's policy meeting, where no rate changes are expected [6][10] - The New Zealand dollar eased by 0.03% to $0.5953, and the offshore yuan remained stable at 7.1230 per dollar [7][10] U.S.-China Trade Relations - U.S. and Chinese officials engaged in talks regarding strained trade ties and the impending divestiture deadline for TikTok, amidst U.S. demands for tariffs on Chinese imports related to Russian oil purchases [8][10]

By Chibuike Oguh and Amanda Cooper NEW YORK/LONDON (Reuters) - Global shares hit a fresh record high on Monday as markets positioned for the U.S. Federal Reserve to begin its monetary policy easing cycle this week. Gold prices hit a record high as the U.S. dollar weakened. Traders widely expect the Fed to deliver a 25 basis-point cut at the end of its policy meeting on Wednesday, with the probability of such a move near 100%, according to CME's FedWatch tool. MSCI's All-Country Index rose as high as 977 ...

Market Overview - US stock futures rose slightly as attention shifts to an important Federal Reserve meeting later this week, with Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 futures all increasing by 0.1% [1] - Major averages had a strong week, with the Nasdaq Composite reaching a new record, climbing 2% for consecutive weekly gains, while the S&P 500 advanced 1.6%, marking its best weekly performance since early August [2] Federal Reserve Expectations - Weak labor market signals and rising prices have heightened expectations for a potential interest rate cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting, with Fed funds futures indicating a 96% chance of a quarter-point cut [3] - A rate cut could further support equities, especially amid ongoing enthusiasm for AI, despite concerns about a potential AI bubble [4] Earnings Season Highlights - The earnings season is nearing its end, with notable companies like FedEx and Cracker Barrel set to report results, which are viewed as indicators for global trade flows and the broader US economy [5] Nvidia Antitrust Investigation - Nvidia's stock fell approximately 2.2% following news of a preliminary investigation by China, which found the company in violation of antitrust laws [6] - This investigation adds pressure on US-China negotiations, which are currently ongoing [6] Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices are approaching record levels, trading near $3,640 an ounce, supported by expectations of a quarter-point rate cut and a weaker dollar [6][7] - Gold has rallied nearly 40% this year, breaking out of a range-bound trading pattern, driven by geopolitical uncertainty and central bank buying [9]

Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - Wall Street anticipates a quarter-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve, with a 7% chance of a larger 50-basis-point cut due to weak labor market data [3][4] - Fed Chairman Jay Powell is expected to maintain a moderate approach to easing, despite pressures for a more aggressive cut [4] - The potential for dissent among Fed members is highlighted, particularly from Governor Christopher Waller, who may advocate for a 50-basis-point cut [4][6] - The upcoming economic calendar includes August retail sales and housing data, which are crucial for assessing consumer spending trends [7][8] Corporate Earnings and Performance - The estimated year-over-year earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is projected at 7.6%, marking the ninth consecutive quarter of earnings growth if realized [9] - FedEx is expected to report adjusted EPS of $3.67 on $21.71 billion in revenue, facing challenges such as stagnant B2B demand and pressures from U.S. trade policies [10] - Analysts suggest FedEx is undervalued at 13x earnings, with a potential upside of 30% if the valuation aligns with a more appropriate multiple of 16-17x [11] OpenAI and Microsoft Partnership - OpenAI anticipates a decrease in revenue sharing with Microsoft from 20% to about 8% by 2030, potentially adding over $50 billion in revenue for the AI startup [12] - The renegotiation of terms in their partnership could significantly impact OpenAI's financial outlook, as it seeks a valuation of approximately $500 billion in private markets [13] Dividend Stocks and Income Investment - A curated list of top dividend-paying stocks has been compiled, focusing on U.S. companies with strong ratings across safety, growth, yield, and consistency [15] - The top five dividend stocks include Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Bunge Global, Watsco, Bristol-Myers Squibb, and Amgen, all rated favorably by analysts [16]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for future interest rate cuts by the central bank, questioning whether these cuts will occur at every meeting this year or at a more cautious pace [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Cuts - The central bank is considering the timing and frequency of interest rate cuts, with speculation on whether they will be implemented at each meeting or more gradually [1] - Market analysts are divided on the likelihood of immediate cuts versus a more measured approach, reflecting uncertainty in economic conditions [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Economic indicators such as inflation rates and employment figures will play a crucial role in determining the pace of interest rate cuts [1] - The central bank's decisions will be influenced by ongoing assessments of economic stability and growth prospects [1]

Market Overview - Wall Street reached new record highs, driven by optimism regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Fed, despite inflation at approximately 2.9% and worsening jobless claims [1][2] - Major tech stocks such as Tesla, Microsoft, and Micron led the gains, while Apple faced challenges following a new product launch [2] Oracle Corporation - Oracle's stock surged approximately 36% in one session due to strong Q1 earnings, with remaining performance obligations (RPO) increasing 359% year-over-year to $455 billion [4] - The company anticipates a 77% increase in cloud infrastructure revenue for fiscal 2026 and projects long-term revenue to reach $144 billion, driven by AI and cloud demand [4] UnitedHealth Group - UnitedHealth's shares rose about 3% after reaffirming its 2025 adjusted EPS guidance of at least $16.00, indicating strong investor confidence [5] Micron Technology - Micron is trading at a resistance level that, if breached, could initiate a new uptrend, with technical indicators showing consolidation just below prior highs [6] Land's End - Land's End reported Q2 net revenue of $294.1 million, missing expectations of approximately $322.4 million, and an adjusted loss of $0.06 per share, leading to a decline in stock value despite raised full-year guidance [7] NIO Inc. - NIO's shares dropped nearly 10% following the announcement of a plan to issue up to 181.8 million new Class A shares to fund R&D, new vehicle models, and infrastructure expansion [8] Synopsys Inc. - Synopsys shares fell about 13-14% after Q3 non-GAAP earnings of $3.39 per share and revenue of $1.73 billion missed expectations, leading to a cut in fiscal 2025 EPS guidance [9][10]