每经AI快讯，11月7日，英国两年期国债收益率上涨约5个基点至3.829%，为10月27日以来最高水平。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The fourth quarter bond market is expected to perform reasonably well, with improved sentiment for long positions following the People's Bank of China's announcement to restart government bond trading on October 27, which has limited the upward space for government bond yields [1] Economic Conditions - The macroeconomic pressures in China have become more evident, particularly after the October PMI fell below expectations, indicating a weakening economic environment [1] - Structural issues remain, with insufficient domestic demand being the primary concern, compounded by tariff disruptions affecting October exports [1] - Companies are facing difficulties in raising prices, which hampers the effectiveness of "anti-involution" policies in transmitting benefits downstream [1] Investment Recommendations - Despite the weak fundamentals, there is still potential for a decline in government bond yields, suggesting that investors should consider focusing on the 10-year government bond ETF (511260) and the government bond ETF (511010) [1]

债券市场的鸽派重新定价将芝加哥商品交易所（CME）美联储观察工具显示的12月降息的隐含概率从 前一天的62%推高至69%，逆转了美联储11月声明后出现的部分鹰派重新定价。 美元指数技术分析 美元指数日线图显示，在200日均线下方的确认反转已在短期内决定性地改变了市场对美元的看法。如 果当前的抛售压力持续，美元指数可能会测试99.463的支撑位，这是50日均线99.359之前的最后一道防 线。由于劳动力数据走软、收益率下降以及货币交叉表现走强，下行风险仍然较高，除非新的数据或美 联储的评论改变预期。 周五（11月7日）美元指数在昨日偶盘中跌落100，早些时候尝试突破100.360失败后，其回调幅度扩大 至200日均线以下。该指数下跌0.3%，目前交投于99.771。在裁员公告激增和美国国债收益率普遍下降 后，风险情绪变得谨慎。 随着固定收益市场对不断恶化的劳动力前景做出反应，美国国债收益率全线走低。10年期国债收益率下 跌超过6个基点，至4.089%，2年期国债收益率降至3.566%，30年期国债收益率降至4.686%。 此前，美国最高法院大法官对特朗普政府时期推出的互惠关税的合法性表示怀疑。如果对该政策做出不 ...

Core Viewpoint - The yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds has increased by 1.5 basis points to 1.675% [1] Group 1 - The rise in yield indicates a potential shift in investor sentiment towards Japanese government bonds [1]

每经AI快讯，11月3日，澳大利亚10年期国债收益率上涨5个基点至4.35%，为10月10日以来最高。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The yield of treasury bonds has reached a short - term peak, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield at 1.85% may be the top in the future. Treasury bond futures are likely to fluctuate with a slight upward bias in the short term [6][37]. - The overall economic situation in October shows that the manufacturing PMI is below the boom - bust line, the non - manufacturing business activity index is slightly above the boom - bust line, and the real estate market is still at the bottom, which is generally favorable for the bond market [9][24][32]. 3. Summary by Related Content Treasury Bond Futures Market - This week, treasury bond futures rose continuously throughout the week. After the central bank governor announced the resumption of open - market treasury bond trading on October 27, treasury bond futures jumped significantly higher on Tuesday. The 30 - year treasury bond rose 1.43%, the 10 - year treasury bond rose 0.62%, the 5 - year treasury bond rose 0.43%, and the 2 - year treasury bond rose 0.21% [4]. - The yield curve of treasury bond cash bonds shifted downward in parallel. The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond yields decreased by 9BP, 5BP, 5BP, and 7BP respectively from October 24 to October 31 [6]. Manufacturing PMI - In October, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, remaining below the boom - bust line for the seventh consecutive month. Affected by the double - holiday and external factors, the decline was larger than the seasonal factor. The PMI of large, medium, and small enterprises showed different trends, with large enterprises slightly below the boom - bust line, medium - sized enterprises remaining stable, and small enterprises facing greater pressure [9]. - The production index in October was 49.7%, and the new order index was 48.8%, indicating a slowdown in production and a decline in market demand. However, new - energy - related industries such as equipment manufacturing, high - tech manufacturing, and consumer goods manufacturing remained in the expansion range [12]. - The new export order index in October was 45.9%, and the import index was 46.8%, both showing a decline. It is expected that the new export order index will rebound significantly in November due to the Sino - US summit [14]. - The purchase price index of major raw materials in October was 52.5%, and the ex - factory price index was 47.5%. It is expected that the PPI in October will decline by about 2.3% year - on - year, the same as in September [17]. - The raw material inventory index in October was 47.3%, and the finished product inventory index was 48.1%. Manufacturing enterprises continued to be cautious about increasing inventory [20]. - The manufacturing employment index in October was 48.3%, and the production and business activity expectation index was 52.8%, showing a slight decline in the expectation of future prosperity [22]. Non - manufacturing Business Activity Index - In October, the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%. The construction business activity index was 49.1%, and the service business activity index was 50.2%, showing a mild expansion [24]. - The new order index of the construction industry in October was 45.9%, and the employment index was 39.9%. The business activity expectation index was 56.0%, indicating a slight decline in the construction industry's prosperity [27]. - The new order index of the service industry in October was 46.0%, and the employment index was 46.1%. The business activity expectation index was 56.1%. Some industries such as railway transportation and aviation transportation were in a high - level prosperity range, while industries such as insurance and real estate were below the critical point [29]. Real Estate Market - The average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities in October decreased by 25% year - on - year, and the decline widened. The national commercial housing sales are still at the bottom, and it is expected that the real estate development investment in October will still contract significantly, dragging down the construction industry [32]. Capital Market - This week, the short - term capital interest rate first rose and then fell, and the one - year AAA inter - bank certificate of deposit issuance rate also declined [35].

Core Points - Japan's 5-year government bond yield increased by 1.5 basis points to 1.225% [1] Group 1 - The rise in the 5-year government bond yield indicates a potential shift in investor sentiment towards Japanese government securities [1] - The increase in yield may reflect broader economic conditions and expectations regarding interest rates in Japan [1] - Monitoring changes in bond yields is crucial for understanding the overall health of the financial markets and potential investment opportunities [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury yields experienced an upward trend on October 30, with notable increases in both 10-year and 2-year yields, indicating market reactions to economic conditions and potential inflation concerns [1] Group 1: Treasury Yields - The 10-year Treasury yield rose by 1.35 basis points, reaching 4.0892%, showing a V-shaped movement throughout the day [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield increased by 1.02 basis points, settling at 3.6082% [1] - The yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasuries widened by 0.146 basis points, now at +47.713 basis points [1] Group 2: TIPS Yields - The 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) yield increased by 1.84 basis points, reaching 1.7921% [1] - The 2-year TIPS yield rose by 3.12 basis points, now at 0.9982% [1] - The 30-year TIPS yield saw an increase of 2.51 basis points, reaching 2.4213% [1]

Core Insights - The UK 10-year government bond yield increased by 2.9 basis points to 4.421% following the Federal Reserve's announcement of a 25 basis point rate cut and the end of quantitative tightening (QT) starting December 1 [1] - The 2-year UK bond yield rose by 2.8 basis points to 3.794% [1] - The 30-year UK bond yield increased by 1.6 basis points to 5.179% [1] - The 50-year UK bond yield saw a rise of 2.3 basis points, reaching 4.644% [1] - The yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year UK bonds widened by 0.077 basis points to +62.568 basis points [1]

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