16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2026-1-6） | | | | 铁矿：元旦假期期间，新加坡铁矿石期货先跌后涨，整体 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 窄幅波动。一季度澳巴主产区进入季节性天气敏感期，或 | | | | | 导致发运阶段性收缩。关注主流矿山季节性发运波动及钢 | | | 铁矿石 | 震荡 | 厂利润修复带来的补库节奏。钢材需求仍处传统淡季，当 | | | | | 前铁水产量已接近阶段性底部，钢厂进口矿库存创近年同 | | | | | 期新低，冬储补库刚需逐步升温，为钢价提供短期支撑。 | | | | | 国内港口库存持续处于高位区间，铁矿价格上行幅度承 | | | | | 压。综合来看，短期基本面矛盾尚不突出，供需多空因素 | | | | | 相互博弈，难以形成大幅单边行情，预计整体在区间内震 | | | 煤焦 | 震荡偏弱 | 荡运行，关注补库落地力度与天气对发运的实际影响。 | | | | | 煤焦：元旦前后焦炭市场现货价格承压下行，焦炭价格第 | | | | | 四轮提降落地，焦化厂平均利润进一步下滑，目前焦炭供 | | | | | 需宽松，目前焦 ...

步入2026年，债市将如何演绎？业内专家指出，2026年，债市仍将处于多空因素交织博弈的复杂环境中 ——宽松货币政策与经济弱复苏的核心矛盾将主导市场走向。 就偏多因素而言，货币政策适度宽松的基调将构成核心支撑。来自中金公司的研究观点认为，若2026年 美国进一步降息，中国汇率约束将有所减弱，为应对人民币升值压力，不排除管理层加快货币政策放松 节奏的可能，即货币市场利率存在补降空间，这将直接推动债券收益率曲线牛市变陡。 华西证券宏观团队则表示，2026年一季度靠后时段，财政将面临政府债净发行高基数压力，彼时货币政 策加力的可能性料上升，预计2026全年一至三季度的降息幅度将达20BP，为债市提供阶段性交易窗 口。 新华财经上海1月4日电 2025年四季度，债市呈现出明显的结构性分化特征，利率债与信用债走势逐步 背离。2026年债市会否延续弱震荡格局？哪些因素将左右债市表现？利率债和信用债能否继续布局？ 利率修复回暖信用利差分化 刚过去的2025年末，利率债市场走出了全年"M"型震荡格局的收尾修复行情。 自2025年三季度多重利空因素推动债市出现熊陡回调后，四季度利率债市场便开启了震荡修复走势，短 端利率修复幅度 ...

每经AI快讯，周一(12月29日)欧市尾盘，法国10年期国债收益率跌3.6个基点，报3.526%；两年期法债 收益率跌3.0个基点；30年期法债收益率跌2.8个基点。意大利10年期国债收益率跌4.9个基点，报 3.505%。西班牙10年期国债收益率跌3.9个基点，报3.250%。希腊10年期国债收益率跌4.9个基点，报 3.398%。 ...

固收-年度展望专题汇报 20251208 摘要 近期债市调整受交易情绪和机构行为影响，非基本面或流动性压力。公 募基金避险，银行自营配置，大型银行重购超长端债券，认可配置价值。 未来银行和保险公司对 30 年期国债的介入预计增加。 当前 30 年期国债具备配置价值，绝对位置和利差位置均相对到位，银 行自营已开始介入。30 年国债税后收益与房贷税后收益大致持平，显示 较高配置价值。 30-10 年期国债利差已从历史低位上行至约 40BP，但居民杠杆率和地 产周期未明显好转，利差上行空间有限，预计不会显著走陡，当前水平 较为合理。 超长期限国债供给将继续增加，但增量不会显著超前两年。需求端存在 不确定性，但机构仍能消化大量供应，整体压力可控，不会显著恶化。 预计 2026 年财政政策将继续发力，供给端有超常规增量，但需求端不 确定性较大。长期来看，10 年以上国债和地方债存量占比提升，需求端 仍需观察，预计货币政策将保持宽松。 Q&A 近期市场表现及其背后的主要因素是什么？ 近期市场，尤其是上周的市场，最突出的变化是超长端利率债的调整幅度超出 预期。主要原因在于市场情绪的集中冲击和机构行为层面的互动。尽管消息面 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore, coal and coke, rolled steel, rebar, glass, soda ash, Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, CSI 300, 2 - year Treasury bonds, 5 - year Treasury bonds, logs, pulp, rubber: Volatility [2][4][6][8][12] - CSI 500, CSI 1000, double - offset paper, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean No.2, soybean No.1: Rebound [4][8] - Gold, silver: Volatility with an upward bias [6] - 10 - year Treasury bonds: Consolidation [4] - Soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil: Volatility with a downward bias [8] - Live pigs, natural rubber: Volatility [9][12] - PX, PTA: Wide - range volatility [12] - MEG: Low - level volatility [12] - PR: Wait - and - see [12] - PF: Wait - and - see, with possible market consolidation this week [12] 2. Core Views of the Report - The black industry is affected by factors such as new global mine supplies, steel export policies, and downstream demand, with prices mainly in a volatile state [2] - The financial market is affected by national policies, economic data, and market sentiment, showing short - term volatility and medium - term trends [4] - Precious metals are influenced by factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and interest rate policies, with prices showing an upward - biased volatility trend [6] - The light industry products are in a state of supply - demand imbalance, with prices mainly fluctuating [6][8] - The prices of oils and fats and oilseeds are affected by factors such as production, exports, and biodiesel policies, showing a downward - biased volatility trend, while the meal prices may rebound in the short term [8] - The price of live pigs is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and seasonal consumption, and is expected to remain volatile [9] - The price of soft commodities is affected by factors such as weather, production, and demand, and is expected to fluctuate [12] - The prices of polyester products are affected by factors such as oil prices, supply, and demand, showing different trends such as wide - range volatility, low - level volatility, and wait - and - see [12] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: In 2026, global mines will add 64 - 65 million tons, with a growth rate far exceeding that of crude steel. Current demand is weak, and the implementation of steel export license management is a negative factor. Short - term rebounds can be used to enter short positions [2] - Coal and coke: The fourth round of coke price cuts is expected to occur at the end of the month and take effect in early January. There are still supportive factors, but the implementation of steel export license management has a negative impact on demand [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: The implementation of export license management, the emphasis on controlling high - energy - consuming projects, and the call to expand domestic demand have short - term positive effects. The key lies in the production level in January [2] - Glass: The domestic float glass spot market is declining, with supply contraction falling short of expectations and inventory accumulation due to weak demand [2] Financial - Stock index futures/options: The previous trading day saw gains in major stock indices. The convening time of the 2026 National Two Sessions has been determined, and the National Finance Work Conference has put forward key tasks for 2026 [4] - Treasury bonds: The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, with the yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds remaining flat. The market trend is showing a slight rebound [4] Precious Metals - Gold: Its pricing mechanism is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. Multiple attributes support its price, but there are short - term risks [6] - Silver: It shows a similar trend to gold, with short - term upward expectations and long - term support [6] Light Industry - Logs: Port shipments and imports show different trends. Supply pressure is weakening, and prices are expected to fluctuate [6][8] - Pulp: The cost support for pulp prices has increased, but demand is weak, and prices are expected to remain volatile [8] - Double - offset paper: Supply is stable, and demand from publication orders provides support, but there is a need for the basis to return [8] Oils and Fats and Oilseeds - Oils: The export of Malaysian palm oil has decreased, and inventory pressure is high. The demand for biodiesel is uncertain, and the overall trend is downward - biased [8] - Meal: Global soybean inventory is relatively abundant, and the supply of soybean meal is expected to be sufficient. It may rebound in the short term [8] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The average trading weight may decline. Demand has driven up the settlement price and slaughtering rate, and the price is expected to remain volatile [9] Soft Commodities - Rubber: Production is affected by weather, demand is gradually recovering, and inventory is accumulating. Prices are expected to fluctuate [12] Polyester - PX: Supply is high, and prices are in wide - range volatility [12] - PTA: Cost may be affected by oil prices, and short - term supply - demand has improved, but the long - term trend is weak [12] - MEG: There is long - term inventory accumulation pressure, and short - term prices are in low - level volatility [12] - PR: Cost support has collapsed, and prices are expected to decline [12] - PF: Inventory is low, but the market expectation is bearish, and it may consolidate this week [12]

Core Viewpoint - The central economic work conference reiterated the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy, emphasizing the flexible and efficient use of various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions, indicating a proactive approach to economic stabilization and growth [1][12]. Summary by Sections Review of Monetary Policy Operations This Year - The shift in monetary policy from "prudent" to "moderately loose" was signaled during the Central Political Bureau meeting in December last year, leading to a significant decline in the 10-year government bond yield, which fell by 88 basis points over the year, marking the largest drop in a decade [2][6]. - The 10-year government bond yield reached a record low of below 1.6% after the New Year and Spring Festival [2]. Key Aspects of Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has confirmed that "moderately loose" reflects the supportive nature of recent monetary policy actions, with a focus on maintaining liquidity and optimizing the structure of monetary policy tools [5][14]. - In 2023, the PBOC implemented only one RRR cut of 50 basis points, compared to two cuts totaling 100 basis points in the previous year, and reduced the policy interest rate for the 7-day reverse repurchase agreement by 10 basis points [6][8]. Outlook for Next Year's Monetary Policy - The continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy is expected, with the central economic work conference acknowledging ongoing challenges such as external economic pressures and domestic supply-demand imbalances [9][10]. - The emphasis will be on enhancing policy coordination, integrating various economic policies to support stable growth, employment, and market expectations [11][12]. Implementation Strategies - The PBOC aims to maintain a supportive monetary policy stance while avoiding excessive liquidity injections, focusing on precise measures and leaving room for adjustments based on economic conditions [12][14]. - The integration of fiscal and monetary policies will be crucial, with examples such as the fiscal subsidy policy for personal consumption loans highlighting the collaboration between these sectors [11][12]. Risk Management and Financial Stability - The central economic work conference stressed the importance of balancing economic growth with risk prevention, enhancing the monitoring and assessment of financial risks, and maintaining stability in financial markets [17][18]. - The PBOC is tasked with building a robust monetary policy framework and improving the transparency of policy communication to bolster public confidence [18].

Monetary Policy Overview - The central economic work conference reiterated the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy, emphasizing the flexible and efficient use of various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions [1][6][10] - The shift in monetary policy tone from "prudent" to "moderately loose" was signaled during the Central Political Bureau meeting in December last year, leading to expectations of larger RRR cuts and interest rate reductions in 2025 [2][3] Market Reactions and Trends - The 10-year government bond yield fell by 88 basis points over the past year, marking the largest decline in a decade, with a record low of below 1.6% reached after the New Year and Spring Festival [2][5] - Despite the shift to a moderately loose policy, the 10-year bond yield increased by 16 basis points as of December 26, primarily due to the market's anticipation of monetary easing being priced in [5] Policy Implementation and Tools - In 2023, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) implemented a series of financial measures, including a single RRR cut of 50 basis points and a 10 basis point reduction in the 7-day reverse repurchase rate, which was less aggressive than the previous year's actions [3][4] - The PBOC utilized various tools such as open market operations, medium-term lending facilities (MLF), and structural monetary policy tools to maintain ample liquidity in the market [4][10] Economic Indicators - As of November, the broad money supply (M2) grew by 8.0% year-on-year, with a 0.9 percentage point increase compared to the previous year, while the social financing scale increased by 8.5% [4] - The macro leverage ratio, measured by M2 and social financing stock relative to annual GDP, increased by 9.1 and 11.5 percentage points respectively, indicating a more relaxed monetary environment [4] Future Policy Directions - The central economic work conference highlighted the need for enhanced policy "synergy," focusing on the integration of existing and new monetary policies to support economic stability and growth [8][9] - The PBOC aims to balance short-term and long-term goals, ensuring that monetary policy supports economic growth while managing risks effectively [9][12]

去年12月9日中央政治局会议分析研究2025年经济工作时，就"剧透"了来年货币政策基调从"稳健"调整为"适度宽松"的信号。这引发了对2025年更大力度降 准降息的憧憬，债券市场出现"抢跑"行情。去年全年，10年期国债收益率累计下行88个基点，跌幅创十年来新高。其中，12月单月下行35个基点，而12月9 日（含）之后贡献了28个基点。今年元旦和春节过后，10年期国债收益率两度收盘跌破1.6%，创有记录以来新低。 央行例会将"适时降准降息，保持流动性充裕"替换成"灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保持流动性充裕"。 继去年底时隔14年重提"实施适度宽松的货币政策"后，今年底中央经济工作会议再提"继续实施适度宽松的货币政策"，且在具体表述中用"灵活高效运用降 准降息等多种政策工具"替换了"适时降准降息"。本文拟在回顾今年货币政策操作的基础上，结合日前召开的中国人民银行货币政策委员会第四季度例会 （下称"四季度例会"）对明年货币政策进行展望。 今年货币政策操作回顾 年初笔者引用人民银行行长潘功胜去年6月在陆家嘴论坛上关于中国货币政策立场是支持性的评论时指出，"适度宽松"是对前期货币政策操作的确认，而不 是货币政策的 ...

2025年的我国债券市场，在复杂的内外部环境中，清晰地划出了一条"震荡"主线。 临近年末，中信证券首席经济学家明明在接受新华财经专访时指出，全年债券市场呈现出典型的"上有 顶、下有底"区间波动特征。10年期国债收益率在约30个基点的范围内反复波动，未能形成单一趋势方 向。驱动市场的核心力量，已从对宏观面的线性推演，转变为对事件冲击、政策预期及机构行为的复杂 博弈。 "关税扰动"、"反内卷新政"、"央行购债操作"等关键变量分段主导了市场节奏。在这种新生态下，传统 单边策略的有效性下降，捕捉结构性机会与波段行情成为更重要的能力。 博弈的均衡：多空力量如何在震荡中重塑债市逻辑 政策预期的动态调整构成了贯穿全年的核心主线。明明分析指出，从年初央行传递防风险信号，到年中 超预期降准降息，再到四季度重启国债买卖，货币政策的风向变化引导着市场情绪在乐观与谨慎间反复 切换。 作为连接金融与实体经济的血脉，信用债市场的变迁精准映射着经济肌体的活力与风险。 市场正在抛弃简单的"身份标签"，转而深入审视企业自身的"造血能力"。"定价的锚点，正回归到最本 质的经营现金流与偿债保障，"明明还提及，机构负债端的特性差异，进一步刻画了市场 ...

Group 1: Asset Environment and Economic Outlook - CITIC Securities predicts that the asset environment in 2026 may exhibit characteristics of marginal liquidity easing and moderate economic recovery, with the 10-year China bond yield expected to fluctuate between 1.5% and 1.8% and the 10-year US Treasury yield maintaining a range of 3.9% to 4.3% [1] - The report anticipates that Brent crude oil will oscillate between $58 and $70 per barrel, while gold prices may continue to be strong, potentially reaching $5,000 per ounce, supported by liquidity easing and geopolitical risks [1] - Copper prices are expected to rise to an average of $12,000 per ton due to supply constraints and electricity demand [1] Group 2: Currency and Foreign Investment - Huatai Securities indicates that the current appreciation of the RMB is likely to enhance foreign investors' interest in RMB-denominated assets, creating a positive cycle for capital inflows and easing financial conditions [2] - The report notes that despite seasonal declines in capital flows and risk appetite towards the end of the year, the strengthening of the RMB will continue to boost the valuation of both onshore and offshore RMB assets [2] Group 3: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver prices have surged nearly 150% this year, driven by strong industrial demand, low global inventories, and its inclusion in key mineral lists [2] - Analysts suggest that silver is breaking away from its traditional role as a "by-product" of gold, with its independent investment logic being re-evaluated by the market [2] - Predictions indicate that silver prices could reach $100 per ounce by 2026, especially if monetary instability increases [2] Group 4: Japanese Economic Indicators - Tokyo's inflation rate has shown a greater-than-expected decline, with the CPI rising 2.3% year-on-year in December, down from 2.8% the previous month, primarily due to easing food price increases and lower energy costs [3] - Despite the slowdown, inflation remains above the Bank of Japan's 2% target, suggesting continued tightening of monetary policy [3] - The Japanese economy is expected to rebound from a contraction in Q3, with forecasts indicating production growth of 1.2% and 1.8% in December and January 2026, respectively [3] Group 5: Japanese Government Bond Issuance - The Japanese Finance Ministry plans to reduce the issuance of ultra-long government bonds to the lowest level in 17 years, cutting nearly 20% from the previous fiscal year to approximately 17.4 trillion yen [4] - The total issuance of Japanese government bonds for the next fiscal year is projected to be 180.7 trillion yen, a decrease of nearly 5% from the current fiscal year [4] Group 6: South Korean Currency Intervention - The South Korean won has strengthened against the US dollar due to verbal interventions and measures from authorities, with the government expressing a firm commitment to alleviate pressure on the currency [4] - Recent measures may lead to a dollar sell-off of up to $23 billion, although there are risks that the outcomes may not meet expectations [4]