新闻与观点 波兰国家银行（NBP）昨日意外将政策利率下调25个基点至4.50%。NBP的声明与上次会议并无太大差 异，但央行注意到，9月份消费者物价指数（CPI）同比涨幅保持不变，为2.9%。央行预计，扣除食品 和能源价格的核心通胀率（8月份环比增长0.2%，同比增长3.2%）将接近8月份的水平，但服务价格涨 幅仍在上升。公报还评估称，尽管2025年第二季度的年工资增长率略有下降，但仍保持在高位，但企业 部门的数据显示增长正在逐步放缓。央行认为，未来一段时间通胀前景的改善有理由调整NBP的利率水 平。声明中并未明确提及，但短期通胀前景的改善可能与政府在第四季度延长能源价格上限有关。市场 反应平淡。波兰2年期掉期收益率下跌4个基点。兹罗提几乎没有反应（欧元/波兰兹罗提4.25），这表 明市场主要将降息视为时机问题，而非深刻改变对波兰央行利率预期路径的预期。 中国宣布将加强对稀土及相关技术出口的管控。这些措施旨在进一步控制已流出中国的产品和技术。为 此，外国公司出口即使含有少量稀土元素的产品也需要获得中国商务部的批准。中国当局还计划禁止与 稀土开采和回收相关的技术，除非获得商务部的许可。一些用于开发芯片的稀土产品 ...

• 盈利稳：银行、公用事业、电信运营商这类龙头，就算经济波动也能赚钱； • 分红稳：国央企市值管理新政鼓励分红，分红手续费还降了，政策托底明显。 上海的陈先生去年买了某电信央企股票，除了每年 5.3% 的分红，股价还涨了 12%，算下来年化收益 17%。他说："比存款赚得多，风险比炒股小，适合不 想操心的普通人。" 公募 REITs 也是好选择。保障房类 REITs 股息率普遍 3%-4%，底层是收租金的实物资产，相当于 "买了个能收租的门面"，比存款灵活，收益还更高。 10 年期国债收益率跌到 1.6%，国有大行 3 年定存利率破 2%，货币基金收益连创新低。 数据很扎心：居民存款单月新增 1.8 万亿元，大家都在把钱往银行搬。但另一面，北向资金单周净流入 230 亿元，社保基金悄悄加仓两类资产 —— 高股息 股票和长久期成长标的。 不是存钱错了，是只存钱会亏。低利率时代，钱躺在银行里，每年实际购买力都在缩水。聪明钱早就看懂：与其赚 1.5% 的利息，不如布局能穿越周期的核 心资产。 1. 高股息资产：5%+ 收益的 "类存款" 替代品 利率越低，稳定分红越香。中证红利指数现在股息率 5.16%，比 3 年 ...

每经AI快讯，当地时间10月3日，欧债收益率集体下跌，英国10年期国债收益率涨2.1个基点报4.688%， 法国10年期国债收益率跌1个基点报3.507%，德国10年期国债收益率跌0.1个基点报2.697%，意大利10年 期国债收益率跌0.6个基点报3.509%，西班牙10年期国债收益率跌1个基点报3.228%。 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，当地时间10月1日，欧债收益率多数下跌，英国10年期国债收益率跌0.4个基点报4.694%， 法国10年期国债收益率跌0.4个基点报3.528%，德国10年期国债收益率涨0.1个基点报2.710%，意大利10 年期国债收益率跌0.8个基点报3.523%，西班牙10年期国债收益率跌0.6个基点报3.248%。 ...

近期政策强预期依然压制债市情绪，机构赎回担忧仍在，市场利率再度面临关键点位挑战。上周初央行重启14 天期逆回购操作，显示出较强的跨节资金面呵护意愿，流动性转松支撑债市修复。但科技股持续走强，且市场 对年内出台第三轮逆周期调节政策的预期较高，机构有加速赎回债基的迹象，长端尤其是超长端债市跌幅放 大。理财子、银行自营、保险等机构债基净赎回规模处于1年来偏高水平，且季末时点临近，债基赎回的负反馈 或触发。10年期、30年期国债活跃券收益率一度分别上行至1.84%和2.14%。 从基本面情况看，实体融资需求偏弱、资金面合理充裕仍是债市的主要支撑，但以"反内卷"为主的一系列政策 逐步推进，宏观面积极持续施压债市情绪，债市定价持续偏离基本面。而随着公募基金销售新规落地时点的临 近，机构情绪偏谨慎，且年内银行等机构止盈需求尚未出清，债市调整压力加大。 图为央行持续净投放呵护流动性（单位：亿元） 从政策角度看，9月降息预期落空意味着当前政策框架仍将以财政和结构性政策为主，稳地产、扩消费、"反内 卷"等政策更为关键。当前经济矛盾集中在结构层面，短期降准降息落地的必要性不强。不过，宽信用诉求仍需 流动性的配合，央行重启14天期逆 ...

Group 1: Black Industry - Investment Rating: Adjustment - Core View: After the National Day, the trading focus will gradually shift to reality. The supply - demand patterns of iron ore, coal - coke, and steel products face challenges, while glass has short - term sentiment - driven fluctuations and long - term industry adjustment pressures [2] - Directory Summary: - Iron Ore: Overseas supply is rising, and although demand is currently okay, the supply - demand pattern is weakening. The main iron ore futures price has declined from its high. The 2601 contract is in high - level adjustment [2] - Coal - Coke: Coal supply is abundant, and the difficulty of price support for coking coal will increase. Coke price hikes are expected to be implemented, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not obvious. The coke market follows coking coal, and attention should be paid to anti - involution policies [2] - Rolled Steel and Rebar: The supply - demand pattern of rebar is average, with weak downstream performance. The steel price is under pressure again. To reach the normal seasonal inventory level, production needs to decline by about 10000 tons. The 2601 contract is in weak shock operation [2] - Glass: The industry was called to raise prices, which may stimulate pre - holiday restocking. In the long run, the real estate industry is in adjustment. Attention should be paid to production and policy changes during the holiday [2] Group 2: Financial Industry - Investment Rating: Various (including shock, rebound, etc.) - Core View: The market is affected by policies and economic data. The stock index market has different trends, and the bond market is under pressure. Gold shows a relatively strong shock trend [3][4] - Directory Summary: - Stock Index Futures/Options: The stock index market has different trends. The Politburo meeting emphasized high - quality development during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period. The new policy financial tools may boost investment. It is recommended to control risk preferences [3][4] - Treasury Bonds: The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds has risen, and the market interest rate has fluctuated. Treasury bond bulls should hold lightly [4] - Gold: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing. Factors such as central bank gold purchases, currency credit issues, and geopolitical risks support the price. It is expected to be in a relatively strong shock [4] Group 3: Light Industry - Investment Rating: Various (including range shock, consolidation, etc.) - Core View: The supply - demand situations of different products in the light industry are different, and the price trends are also diverse [5] - Directory Summary: - Logs: The supply is tightening, the cost support is increasing, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to be in range shock [5] - Pulp: The cost support is increasing, but the demand is not strong. It is expected to be in bottom - level consolidation [5] - Offset Paper: The production is relatively stable, the demand is expected to improve, but the profit is low. It is expected to be in shock [5] Group 4: Oil and Fat Industry - Investment Rating: Wide - range shock, shock - bearish - Core View: The supply - demand relationships of oils and fats are complex, affected by factors such as production, policy, and inventory. The supply of meal products is relatively loose [5] - Directory Summary: - Oils: The supply pressure of palm oil is increasing, but there are also factors such as production reduction and policy changes. The supply of domestic soybean oil is abundant. It is expected that oils will be in wide - range shock [5] - Meal Products: The supply of domestic soybean meal is loose, and the export of US soybeans is weak. It is expected that meal products will be in shock - bearish trend [5] Group 5: Agricultural Products - Investment Rating: Shock - strong, shock - weak - Core View: The supply of live pigs is abundant, and the demand has short - term fluctuations. The price is expected to be in short - term weak shock [6] - Directory Summary: - Live Pigs: The average trading weight is declining, the demand for pre - holiday stocking is increasing, but the sales pressure is also rising. The price is expected to be in short - term weak shock [6] Group 6: Soft Commodities and Polyester Industry - Investment Rating: Various (including shock, wait - and - see, etc.) - Core View: The supply - demand situations of soft commodities and polyester products are complex, and the price trends are different [7][8] - Directory Summary: - Rubber: The supply is affected by weather, the demand is improving, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to be in wide - range shock [8] - PX: There are potential supply risks, and the supply - demand is decreasing. The price follows oil prices [8] - PTA: The cost support may weaken, and the supply - demand is marginally weakening. The price follows cost fluctuations [8] - MEG: The supply pressure is increasing, and the short - term price is affected by cost fluctuations [8] - PR: The market trading is expected to be dull, and the price is expected to be stable [8] - PF: The cost support may weaken, and the market may have narrow - range consolidation [8]

·银河证券：贸易不确定性拖累新加坡制造业前景 ·印度债券交易员寄希望于鸽派印度央行重振低迷的市场 【机构分析】 ·潘森宏观：欧元区的通胀可能比预期更高 ·渣打银行：澳储行本周将按兵不动 Q4料再降息一次 ·野村：美元兑日元的波动性可能会因即将到来的数据和事件而增加 ·凯投宏观：东京CPI不会阻止日本央行在10月恢复加息 ·北欧斯安银行：若美国政府关门亚币涨势将是短暂的 ·最近几周，印度债券交易一直萎靡不振，分析师表示，只有印度央行本周发出温和信号，才可能有助 于重燃看涨情绪。据印度联合银行称，降息25个基点，再加上对进一步宽松政策的明确指导，可能会使 10年期国债收益率至多下降30个基点。PGIM印度资产管理公司认为，收益率可能因印度央行的温和指 引而下跌10个基点，但按兵不动可能引发抛售。一些投资者正变得乐观起来，他们押注最近的消费税下 调将有助于降低通胀，并让央行今年有更大的宽松空间。全球不确定性上升，包括美国在亚洲对印度商 品征收最高关税，也加强了政策支持的理由。 （文章来源：新华财经） ·潘森宏观认为，本月欧元区的通胀可能比预期更高。调查显示，经济学家预计欧元区20个国家的通胀 率将达到2.2%。但实 ...

Group 1: Market Data Summary - DR001 closed at 1.32 with a -15.67bp change, DR007 at 1.53 with a -7.04bp change, GC001 at 1.36 with a -13.50bp change, and GC007 at 0.00 with a -187.00bp change [4] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.58 with a 0.40bp change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with a 0.00bp change [4] - 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year Chinese treasury bonds closed at 1.39 (-1.00bp), 1.63 (-0.73bp), and 1.88 (-0.78bp) respectively, while 10 - year US treasury bonds closed at 4.20 with a 2.00bp change [4] - Last week, the central bank conducted 2467.4 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations and 600 billion yuan in MLF operations, with 1826.8 billion yuan in reverse repurchase and 300 billion yuan in 1 - year MLF maturing, resulting in a net injection of 940.6 billion yuan [4] - This week, 516.6 billion yuan in reverse repurchase will mature, with 240.5 billion and 276.1 billion maturing on Monday and Tuesday respectively, and 300 billion yuan in 182 - day buy - out reverse repurchase maturing on Tuesday [5] Group 2: Stock Index Market - The closing prices and changes of major stock indices: CSI 300 at 4550 (-0.95%), SSE 50 at 2941 (-0.40%), CSI 500 at 7241 (-1.37%), and CSI 1000 at 7398 (-1.45%) [6] - The closing prices and changes of index futures contracts: IF at 4543 (-0.9%), IH at 2945 (-0.3%), IC at 7203 (-1.2%), and IM at 7357 (-1.2%) [6] - Trading volume and open interest changes: IF volume decreased by 9.3% to 121085, IH volume decreased by 6.9% to 48226, IC volume increased by 4.9% to 136035, and IM volume increased by 14.2% to 242990; IF open interest decreased by 2.4% to 259924, IH open interest increased by 1.1% to 95988, IC open interest increased by 1.4% to 252224, and IM open interest increased by 3.3% to 364864 [6] - Last week, CSI 300 fell 0.44% to 4501.9, SSE 50 fell 1.98% to 2909.7, CSI 500 rose 0.32% to 7170.3, and CSI 1000 rose 0.21% to 7438.2; only the power equipment (3.9%) and electronics (3.5%) sectors in the Shenwan primary industry index rose, while banking (-0.5%), non - ferrous metals (-3.5%), non - banking finance (-0.1%), steel (-1.1%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (-2%) led the decline [6] - As of September 25, the margin trading balance in the A - share market was 2436.61 billion yuan, an increase of 46.18 billion yuan from the previous week [6] Group 3: Market Outlook and Analysis - The central bank governor stated that China's monetary policy adheres to a self - centered approach while considering internal and external balance, and will use various monetary policy tools to ensure sufficient liquidity [5] - Recently, the macro news has been calm, and the stock index has been oscillating; due to poor domestic economic data, there is a stronger expectation for policies to promote consumption, stabilize the real estate market, and expand fiscal spending [7] - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China will be held in October, focusing on formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan and analyzing the current economic situation, which is worthy of attention [7] - The stock index trend remains bullish, but the policy aims to guide the A - share market to a "slow - bull" pattern, and it is recommended to adjust and go long, while controlling positions before the holiday [7] Group 4: Index Futures Premium and Discount - IF premium/discount rates: 0.00% for the current - month contract, 2.62% for the next - month contract, 2.45% for the current - quarter contract, and 2.31% for the next - quarter contract [8] - IH premium/discount rates: -2.73% for the current - month contract, -0.50% for the next - month contract, -0.51% for the current - quarter contract, and -0.04% for the next - quarter contract [8] - IC premium/discount rates: 10.16% for the current - month contract, 9.81% for the next - month contract, 9.89% for the current - quarter contract, and 9.76% for the next - quarter contract [8] - IM premium/discount rates: 10.54% for the current - month contract, 11.55% for the next - month contract, 12.54% for the current - quarter contract, and 12.13% for the next - quarter contract [8]

低利率下的宏观分析框架与债券定价 20250926 摘要 中国房地产投资占 GDP 比重显著下降，从 14%降至 7%，住宅投资降 至 3.3%，低于发达国家水平，表明房地产不再是宏观经济的核心驱动 因素，需调整分析框架，转向消费等其他驱动因素。 房地产投资下降导致储蓄剩余，资金流向制造业投资和政府债券，理解 资金流向是宏观分析的关键，需关注储蓄和消费之间的动态变化，以及 工业和服务业的相对变化。 中国消费率相对较低，提升消费率是一个长期过程，面临收入分配和消 费者倾向较低的挑战，不能简单照搬美国消费驱动型模式，需具体情况 具体分析。 新兴市场高消费率往往与高通胀相关，并非健康的消费驱动型经济，温 和通胀环境更有利于维持稳定健康的消费者行为，中国应避免高通胀或 低通胀。 房地产融资下降，政府债券融资快速增长，实体企业融资保持较高水平， 社融结构变化降低了社融指标对宏观经济的指引作用，未来金融对实体 经济的作用可能更多依赖于利率。 Q&A 传统的宏观分析框架及其对债券定价逻辑的影响是什么？ 传统的宏观分析框架在很大程度上以房地产作为核心。过去，房地产在中国经 济中的占比非常高，对经济波动有着显著影响。例如，房地 ...

今天分享的是：2025混沌时刻 报告共计：20页 2025年9月债市：多空博弈激烈，市场处于"混沌时刻" 2025年9月中旬，国内债市迎来了多空力量激烈争夺定价权的关键阶段，整体呈现出"混沌时刻"的特征。以10年期国债为代表的 核心品种，利率运行箱体界限愈发清晰，当利率上行至1.80%时，多头买入力量显著增强；而当利率下行至1.75%时，空头势力 开始占据优势，多空双方围绕关键点位展开反复博弈。 当前市场交易主要聚焦两大核心逻辑：一是央行是否会重启买债操作，二是公募债基赎回费规则能否优化。从央行买债相关线 索来看，9月以来部分大型银行在中长久期利率债配置上出现明显动作，不仅净买入7-10年国债93亿元（此前已连续8个月净卖 出该品种），还同期净买入3-5年国债843亿元、7-10年政金债259亿元，二级买债偏好逐步向长久期品种倾斜。不过，类似的买 债行为在今年5-6月也曾出现，当时大行时隔多月重新在二级市场配置短债，市场一度猜想6月可能成为央行重启买债的起点， 事后却证实这只是银行内部止盈后再投资的需求，因此当前大行的操作能否与央行政策关联，仍缺乏明确结论。 公募债基赎回费优化问题同样备受关注。参考过往新规落 ...