丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 会卖债补流动性吗？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 股债跷跷板效应作为一种常见的股债比价方法被债市投资者熟知。今年 11 月以来上证综指明 显下行，但 10 年期国债价格却整体震荡甚至也跟跌。背后原因是当前权益虽然出现调整，但 投资者对权益市场中长期依然偏乐观，当权益调整时"固收+"基金可能面临较大净值回撤，这 类基金被赎回时会倾向于选择卖债补流动性，从而导致债券被抛售。我们认为这种情况不会持 续，后续随着降息预期渐起及年底配置行情到来，特别是如果权益继续震荡调整，债市收益率 或迎来新一轮下行行情，我们继续维持含税 10 年期国债收益率下行至 1.70%-1.75%的判断。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 赖逸儒 马玮健 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120005 SFC：BVN394 SFC：BVZ968 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title2] 会卖债补流动性吗？ [Table_Summary2 ...

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 11 月 24 日星期一 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-11-24） | | | | 铁矿：供应方面，海外铁矿发运大幅增加，外矿发运量环比增加 447.4 万 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 吨至 3516.4 万吨，不过国内港口铁矿到港量延续回落。日均铁水产量环 | | | | | 比回落 0.6 万吨至 236.28 万吨，河北地区停产钢厂复产，本期铁水减量不 | | | 铁矿石 | 震荡 | 明显。需求核心仍在地产，新开工已回落至 2005 年水平，内需疲弱难改。 | | | | | 港口铁矿石库存小幅回落，仍处于 8 个月高位。铁矿石供需过剩格局难以 | | | | | 扭转，钢厂利润再度挤压，减产检修规模或进一步扩大，但目前钢厂的利 | | | | | 润以及累库水平还不足以自发性减产，短期负反馈概率不大，铁矿价格高 | | | | | 位震荡为主。 | | | | | 煤焦：受外蒙一亿的进口目标消息影响，叠加供暖季保供会议召开，市场 | | | 煤焦 | 震荡 | 担 ...

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 2025 年 11 月 23 日 利率价量择时观点整体转为偏空 美债价量周期择时信号：看多 - 基于美国市场 10 年期国债 YTM 数据判断的多周期择时信号为： 长周期向上突破、中周期向下突破、短周期向下突破。综合来看， 当前合计下行突破 2 票、上行突破 1 票，最终信号的综合评分结 果为看多。 国内利率价量多周期择时策略表现 - 自 2024 年底以来，基于 5/10/30 年期国债 YTM 价量趋势的交易策 略年化收益率分别为 2.24%、2.69%、3.25%，最大回撤为 0.75%、 1.01%、1.78%，收益回撤比为 3.8、4.65、3.54，相对业绩基准的 超额收益率为 0.81%、1.39%、2.57%。2008 年以来，各策略逐年 绝对收益和超额收益大于 0 的概率均接近 100%。 风险提示：本报告基于对历史数据的分析，当市场环境变化时，存在失效 风险。 专题报告 王武蕾 S1090519080001 wangwulei@cmschina.com.cn 梁雨辰 S1090523070008 liangyuchen2@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读 ...

Rick Santelli with the Bond Report. Rick, it appears that uh John Williams may have saved Christmas. >> Well, I'm not sure about that.It certainly seems to me like there's a lot of other moving parts here, but it definitely moved the probabilities on the ease and the probabilities have gone from basically 30% up into the close to 70 and it's backed off but right under 70%. But I think the real story is h how the interest rate complex is shadow boxing uh the equity side and mostly when it goes higher. Now if ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Weakening [2] - Soda ash: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500: Rebounding [4] - CSI 1000: Rebounding [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: High-level oscillating [4] - Silver: High-level oscillating [4] - Logs: Bottom oscillating [6] - Pulp: Weakly oscillating [6] - Offset paper: Weakly oscillating [6] - Edible oils: Range-bound [6] - Meal: Oscillating weakly [6][7] - Rubber: Oscillating [10] - PX: Oscillating [10] - PTA: Oscillating [10] - MEG: Widely oscillating [10] - PR: On the sidelines [10] - PF: On the sidelines [10] Core Viewpoints - The overall market shows a complex trend with different commodities having various performances, affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and international situations. For example, the iron and steel industry is affected by supply and demand and production reduction policies; the financial market is influenced by macroeconomic data and policies; the agricultural and forestry products market is affected by weather, trade policies, and consumption demand [2][4][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Ferrous Metals - **Iron ore**: Overseas shipments increased by 4474000 tons to 35164000 tons, while domestic port arrivals continued to decline. Daily average hot metal production decreased by 0.6 tons to 236280 tons. The demand core lies in the real estate sector, with new construction dropping to the 2005 level. The supply-demand surplus pattern is hard to reverse, and the price is mainly oscillating [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Affected by the news of Mongolia's import target and the heating season supply guarantee meeting, the upward driving force weakened. Although the fourth round of price hikes has been implemented, the profit repair of coke enterprises is limited, and there are obvious differences in sentiment for the fifth round of price hikes. The supply-demand relationship has become looser again, and it is in an adjustment state in the short term [2]. - **Rolled steel and rebar**: Downstream demand is sluggish, and winter storage replenishment has not started yet. The price is mainly oscillating. The key lies in steel demand, and the steel price depends on the implementation of production reduction and anti - "involution" policies [2]. - **Glass**: The spot quotation is relatively weak, and the demand is dragged down by the continuous decline in real estate completion. The enterprise inventory has been increasing, and it is necessary to pay attention to the cold repair of production lines and macro - and production reduction policies [2]. Financial Products - **Stock index futures/options**: The previous trading day saw declines in major stock indices. Some sectors showed capital inflows and outflows. The market is in short - term consolidation, and the medium - term trend is still upward, suggesting long - holding of stock indices [2][4]. - **Treasury bonds**: The central bank carried out 300 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 110 billion yuan. The spot bond interest rate is consolidating, and the market trend is slightly rebounding, suggesting light - position long - holding of treasury bonds [4]. - **Precious metals**: Gold's pricing mechanism is shifting. The Fed's interest rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment may be short - term disturbing factors, while the Fed's interest rate cut cycle, global central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks provide long - term support [4]. Light Industry and Agricultural Products - **Logs**: The port daily average shipment decreased, and the import volume decreased year - on - year. The inventory pressure is large, and the spot price is weak. It is expected to be mainly bottom - oscillating [6]. - **Pulp**: The spot market price is weakly adjusted, the cost support is weakened, and the demand is poor. It is expected to be weakly oscillating [6]. - **Offset paper**: The supply is stable, the start - up rate decreased slightly, and the market expectation is cautious. It is expected to be weakly oscillating [6]. - **Edible oils**: The overall supply is abundant, the demand is weak, and it is expected to continue range - bound operation [6]. - **Meal**: The global soybean supply is relatively loose, and domestic supply is abundant while demand is cautious. It is expected to be oscillating weakly [6][7]. - **Live pigs**: The trading weight fluctuates, the settlement price may face downward pressure, and the slaughter enterprise start - up rate is expected to continue to increase, with the average price expected to oscillate [7]. Soft Commodities and Polyesters - **Rubber**: Different regions have different production situations due to weather. The demand side shows some improvement, but the inventory is in a seasonal accumulation period, and the price is expected to be widely oscillating [10]. - **PX**: Supply is strong, and downstream polyester load has rebounded, with the price mainly oscillating [10]. - **PTA**: Supported by raw materials, the supply - demand relationship has improved, and the price is expected to fluctuate with the cost end [10]. - **MEG**: There is still long - term inventory accumulation pressure, and the price is expected to be widely adjusted in the short term [10]. - **PR**: Lack of support from crude oil and raw materials, with weak downstream demand, the market may continue to be sluggish [10]. - **PF**: The demand side is average, and the supply is relatively loose, with the market expected to be weakly sorted [10].

每经AI快讯，当地时间11月20日，欧债收益率多数上涨，英国10年期国债收益率跌1.7个基点报 4.583%，法国10年期国债收益率涨2.9个基点报3.487%，德国10年期国债收益率涨0.5个基点报2.715%， 意大利10年期国债收益率涨2个基点报3.471%，西班牙10年期国债收益率涨1.6个基点报3.223%。 每日经济新闻 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 == 宏观金融数据日报 | | 国贸期货研究院 宏观金融研究中心 郑雨婷 | | 期货执业证号:F3074875; 投资咨询证号: Z0017779 | | 2025/11/20 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动(bp) | 品种 | 较前值变动 收盘价 | | | | | | | | | (bp) | | | DRO01 | 1.42 | -10.66 | DR007 | 1.51 | -1.08 | | | GC001 | 1.63 | -6.50 | GC007 | 1.51 | -5.00 | | नि | | | | | | | | | SHBOR 3M | 1.58 | 0.00 | LPR 5年 | 3.50 | 0.00 | | 市 | | 1.40 | -0.30 | | 1 રેતે | 0.70 | | 市 | 1年期国债 | | | 5年期国债 | | | | | 10年期国债 | 1.81 | 0.40 | 10年期美债 | 4.12 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillation [2] - Rebar and wire rod: Oscillation [2] - Glass: Oscillation [2] - Soda ash: Oscillation [2] - CSI 500: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000: Rebound [4] - 2-year treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 5-year treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 10-year treasury bond: Uptrend [4] - Gold: High-level oscillation [4] - Silver: High-level oscillation [4] - Logs: Bottom oscillation [5] - Pulp: Weak oscillation [5] - Offset paper: Weak oscillation [5] - Soybean oil: Range-bound operation [5] - Palm oil: Range-bound operation [5] - Rapeseed oil: Range-bound operation [5] - Soybean meal: Oscillation with a weak bias [5] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillation with a weak bias [8] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillation with a weak bias [8] - Live pigs: Oscillation with a strong bias [8] - Rubber: Oscillation [10] - PX: Oscillation [10] - PTA: Oscillation [10] - MEG: Wide-range oscillation [10] - PR: On the sidelines [10] - PF: On the sidelines [10] Core Views - The supply and demand surplus pattern of iron ore is difficult to reverse, and the price is mainly oscillating. The upward driving force of coking coal and coke has weakened, and the short-term adjustment trend continues. The downstream demand for rebar is sluggish, and the price is at the bottom and oscillating. The demand for glass is weak, and the inventory continues to increase. The market for financial futures and options is volatile, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures. The price of gold is oscillating at a high level, and the long-term support is strong. The price of logs is oscillating at the bottom, and the price of pulp is weakly oscillating. The oil and fat market is range-bound, and the meal market is oscillating with a weak bias. The price of live pigs is oscillating, and the slaughter rate is slowly rising. The price of rubber is oscillating, and the demand is gradually recovering. The PX, PTA, and MEG markets are oscillating, and the PR and PF markets are on the sidelines [2][4][5][8][10] Summary by Category Ferrous Metals - **Iron ore**: Overseas iron ore shipments have increased significantly, while domestic port arrivals have continued to decline. The daily average hot metal output has stopped falling and rebounded, and the demand for iron ore has marginally improved. However, the supply and demand surplus pattern is difficult to reverse, and the price is mainly oscillating [2] - **Coking coal and coke**: Affected by the news of Mongolia's import target, the futures market has continued to decline. The fourth round of price increases has been implemented, but the profit repair of coke enterprises is limited. The cost pressure of coking plants is high, and the intention to start work is not high. The supply concerns in the coking coal industry have intensified, and the futures market is in a short-term adjustment trend [2] - **Rebar and wire rod**: The downstream demand is sluggish, and the winter storage replenishment has not yet started. The core lies in the demand for steel, and the domestic demand is difficult to change. The steel price will stop falling depending on whether the production reduction in the fourth quarter of 2025 can be strictly implemented by more than 5% and the intensity of the anti-"involution" policy implementation. Currently, the steel price is expected to remain at the bottom and oscillate [2] Non-ferrous Metals - **Glass**: The spot price has been relatively weak recently, and some manufacturers have started to cut prices. The positive news in the market has been exhausted, and the demand for glass is generally weak. The enterprise inventory has continued to increase. According to the current supply and demand level, the daily melting volume of glass needs to drop to about 154,000 tons by the end of the year to resolve the overcapacity contradiction in the entire industry chain [2] - **Soda ash**: The report does not provide specific information on soda ash, only stating that the investment rating is oscillation [2] Financial Products - **Stock index futures/options**: The previous trading day's stock index performance was mixed, with the CSI 300 rising by 0.44%, the SSE 50 rising by 0.58%, the CSI 500 falling by 0.40%, and the CSI 1000 falling by 0.82%. The precious metals and oil and gas sectors had capital inflows, while the gas and cultural media sectors had capital outflows. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures [4] - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of the 10-year treasury bond has increased by 1bp, and the central bank has carried out a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 310.5 billion yuan. The net investment on the day is 11.5 billion yuan. The spot bond interest rate of treasury bonds is consolidating, and the market trend is slightly rebounding. It is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds with a light position [4] - **Gold and silver**: In the context of a high-interest rate environment and globalization reconstruction, the pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from the traditional core of real interest rates to the core of central bank gold purchases. The price of gold and silver is oscillating at a high level, and the long-term support is strong. The Fed's interest rate policy and risk aversion sentiment may be short-term disturbing factors [4] Light Industry Products - **Logs**: The daily average shipment volume of logs at ports has decreased, and the demand is expected to have no significant increase. The import volume of coniferous logs in September has increased compared with the previous month. The inventory pressure is relatively large, and the spot price is running steadily. It is expected that the log price will mainly oscillate at the bottom [5] - **Pulp**: The spot market price of pulp is running steadily. The cost support for pulp prices has weakened, and the demand is not good. It is expected that the pulp price will be weakly oscillating [5] - **Offset paper**: The spot market price of offset paper is running steadily. The supply is stable, and the market expectation is cautious. The paper price profit is low, and the enthusiasm for high-price stockpiling is low. It is expected that the price will be weakly oscillating [5] Oils and Fats - **Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil**: The US soybean crushing has reached a record high, and the demand for soybean raw materials is strong. The production of Malaysian palm oil is higher than expected, and the export performance is strong. The domestic soybean supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. It is expected that the overall oil and fat market will continue to operate in a range [5] - **Soybean meal and rapeseed meal**: The USDA report shows that the US soybean production, export, and ending inventory have all been adjusted down compared with September. The global soybean supply is still relatively loose. The domestic soybean meal supply is abundant, and the demand is supported by the high livestock inventory, but the high price of soybean meal suppresses the replenishment intention. It is expected that the soybean meal will be oscillating with a weak bias in the short term [5][8] Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs across the country has fluctuated slightly. The demand for pork has improved, and the slaughter rate has slowly increased. It is expected that the price of live pigs will oscillate, and the slaughter rate will continue to rise [8] - **Rubber**: The raw material supply in Yunnan is stable, while the output in Hainan is lower than expected. The overall inventory is still at a low level. The demand has gradually recovered, and the price is oscillating [10] Chemical Products - **PX, PTA, and MEG**: The PX supply is strong, and the downstream polyester is at the turning point between the off-season and the peak season. The PTA price is mainly oscillating with the cost side. The MEG has a long-term inventory accumulation pressure, and the short-term price is in a wide-range adjustment [10] - **PR and PF**: The PR market may oscillate weakly, and the PF market may be weakly sorted [10]

You know, you just heard Steve Leeman at the top saying these minutes were to him a little confusing. The Fed seems divided. I mean, all the data is all the same for everybody.So, it's weird to see a lot of the same people with the same data with very different conclusions. >> Yeah, I'll tell you what. Uh, I glanced over most of the major headlines and read through as much as I could before I was on air and I don't see at all the hawkishness that Steve sees.Here's what I saw. I saw likely not appropriate. T ...

16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-11-19） | | | | 铁矿：供应方面，海外铁矿发运大幅增加，外矿发运量环比增加 447.4 万 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 吨至 3516.4 万吨，不过国内港口铁矿到港量延续回落。日均铁水产量环 | | | | | 比增加 2.66 万吨至 236.88 万吨铁水产量止跌回升，铁矿石需求边际回暖。 | | | 铁矿石 | 震荡 | 核心仍在钢材需求地产，新开工已回落至 2005 年水平，内需疲弱难改。 | | | | | 港口铁矿石库存继续增加，全国 45 个港口进口矿库存刷新 8 个月高位。 | | | | | 铁矿石供需过剩格局难以扭转，钢厂利润再度挤压，减产检修规模或进一 | | | | | 步扩大，目前钢厂的利润以及累库水平还不足以自发性减产，短期负反馈 | | | | | 概率不大，铁矿价格震荡为主。 | | | | | 煤焦：供暖季保供会议召开，市场担忧后续供给端有复产，煤焦上涨驱动 | | | 煤焦 | 震荡 | 转弱。目前坑口焦煤价格高位运行，焦化厂成本压力大，多数焦化厂在亏 | | | | | 损 ...