市场分析 贵金属日报 | 2026-03-04 能源价格推升通胀预期 贵金属继续承压 上期所金银持仓与成交量变化情况： 2026-03-03，Au2604合约上，多头较前一日变化-9573手，空头则是变化-741手。沪金合约上个交易日总成交量为 544885手，较前一交易日变化24.12%。在沪银方面，在Ag2604合约上，多头变动-4558手，空头变动-5767手。白 银合约上个交易日总成交量1910286手，较前一交易日变化43.74%。 贵金属ETF持仓跟踪： 贵金属ETF方面，昨日黄金ETF持仓为1,101.33吨，较前一交易日增加3.43吨。白银ETF持仓为15,902吨，较前一交 易日减少90吨。 美债收益率与利差监控： 贵金属套利跟踪： 2026-03-03，美国10年期国债利率收于4.059%，较前一交易日持平，10年期与2年期利差为0.557%，较前一交易日 持平。 期现价差：2026-03-03，国内溢价方面，昨日黄金国内溢价为18.57元/克，白银国内溢价为1826.31元/千克。金银比 价：昨日上期所金银主力合约价格比约为54.61，较前一交易日变动11.44%，外盘金银比价为56.9 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the Shanghai silver spot price on February 13 was quoted at 19822 yuan per kilogram, which is 40 yuan per kilogram higher than the futures main price of 19782 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a premium in the spot market [3] - The U.S. January employment data showed strong performance, which may influence market expectations regarding Federal Reserve policies [3] - Treasury Secretary Bessent supports the Senate taking over the investigation into Powell rather than the Justice Department, indicating a shift in political dynamics that could impact market sentiment [3] Group 2 - The strengthening of the U.S. dollar index, influenced by signals from Russian President Putin regarding a return to the dollar system, may put pressure on precious metal prices [3] - Despite potential short-term pressures, the expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June, as indicated by Bessent, along with ongoing purchases of gold by multiple central banks, may support precious metal prices in the medium to long term [3]

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in gold prices are driven by changing market perceptions regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve and the evolving situation in Iran, leading to rapid price increases followed by significant declines [1] Market Analysis - The speculative capital in the market has amplified the trend changes in gold prices [1] - Short-term market expectations may have overestimated Kevin Warsh's "hawkish" stance, while uncertainty surrounding the situation in Iran remains high [1] Future Outlook - The company maintains an optimistic outlook for precious and non-ferrous metal prices for the year 2026 [1] Risk Factors - Key risk factors include geopolitical risks, lower-than-expected gold purchases by global central banks, less-than-expected easing by the Federal Reserve, lower-than-expected U.S. fiscal deficits, and U.S. economic growth exceeding expectations [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that recent fluctuations in gold prices are driven by concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve and changes in expectations regarding the situation in Iran, leading to a rapid rise followed by significant volatility in gold prices [1] - The market may have overestimated the hawkish stance of the new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh, while uncertainty regarding the situation in Iran remains high, suggesting that gold market volatility may only settle once the situation stabilizes [1] - For the year 2026, the company maintains an optimistic outlook on the prices of precious metals and non-ferrous metals [1]

Group 1 - The extreme market conditions are influenced by the market's adjustment to the monetary policy stance of the new Federal Reserve Chairman, Walsh, raising concerns about a slowdown in monetary easing by 2026, which may pressure precious metal prices [1] - Gold has been perceived as a "risk asset" due to its significant price increase, leading to a strong demand for price correction, compounded by high levels of bullish trading that could trigger a sell-off if prices decline [1] - Silver follows a similar logic, with high bullish trading and previous price increases resulting in substantial unrealized gains, making it susceptible to a sell-off reaction in the event of price declines [1] Group 2 - In the long term, gold is expected to remain an irreplaceable asset for value preservation, with ongoing demand for dollar asset alternatives and existing risk premiums, suggesting a strategy of buying on dips [1] - Short-term risks of further price corrections for gold are acknowledged, while silver is advised to be approached with caution due to its high volatility [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that there is an opportunity for coordinated optimization in the policy regarding precious metal prices, and the key price movements should not rely on interventions from COMEX, as the influence primarily lies within the domestic market [1] - China will implement strategic export controls on physical silver stocks starting January 1, 2026, which will convert excess unrefined silver into domestic reserves, thereby hindering global silver flow and necessitating a reassessment of silver's value [1][2] - China is the largest silver exporter, accounting for 23.4% of global trade volume in 2024, which will lead to a decrease in global supply by approximately 4,000 to 5,000 tons [2] Group 2 - As of the end of October, China's gold reserves reached 74.09 million ounces, marking the 14th consecutive month of increases, which supports the narrative of rising gold and silver prices alongside a weakening dollar [3] - Hong Kong aims to achieve a target of 2,000 tons of gold over three years, which may require a premium of at least 10% for purchases from the West, potentially leading to a shift of offshore RMB and USD into gold [4][5] - The market perceives a conflict where regulatory efforts to control prices are countered by industrial pressures from third-party stockpiling, which drives up costs, indicating that without breaking the price transmission path, significant price adjustments are likely [7]

Price Performance - London Gold latest price is 4623.05, with a change of 10.10 [1] - London Silver latest price is 85.82, with a change of 1.75 [1] - London Platinum latest price is 2374.00, with a change of 92.00 [1] - London Palladium latest price is 1865.00, with a change of 32.00 [1] - WTI Crude latest price is 61.15, with a change of 1.65 [1] - LME Copper latest price is 13067.50, with a change of -125.50 [1] - US Dollar Index latest is 99.18, with a change of 0.29 [1] - Euro to US Dollar latest is 1.16, with a change of -0.00 [1] - British Pound to US Dollar latest is 1.34, with a change of -0.00 [1] - US Dollar to Japanese Yen latest is 159.17, with a change of 1.00 [1] Trading Data - COMEX Silver inventory latest is 13550.90, with a change of -56.41 [1] - SHFE Silver inventory latest is 630.07, with a change of -19.57 [1] - Gold ETF holdings latest is 1074.23, with a change of 3.43 [1] - Silver ETF holdings latest is 16321.16, with a change of -26.79 [1] - SGE Gold deferred fee payment direction latest is 2, with a change of 0.00 [1] - SGE Silver deferred fee payment direction latest is 2, with a change of 0.00 [1]

Group 1: Market Performance - The US stock market saw a slight increase on Monday, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices reaching all-time highs, closing at 69,777.27 and 49,590.20 points respectively [1] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose by 4.26%, with notable gains in Chinese stocks such as Alibaba, which increased by over 10% [1] Group 2: Precious Metals - Precious metals prices surged to record highs, with spot gold exceeding $4,600 per ounce and silver prices rising over 8% to surpass $86 per ounce [1][7] - The increase in precious metals is attributed to concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve and uncertainty in monetary policy, which are expected to provide long-term support for gold and silver prices [7][9] Group 3: Oil Prices - Oil prices reached their highest levels since December 2025, with WTI crude oil futures closing at $59.50 per barrel, marking a 0.64% increase [1] - The rise in oil prices is driven by investor concerns regarding potential supply disruptions from Iran amid ongoing geopolitical tensions [1] Group 4: Federal Reserve and Political Influence - The Trump administration's threat of a criminal investigation against Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has raised concerns about the Fed's independence, potentially impacting monetary policy and market confidence [5][6] - A group of former financial officials criticized the investigation, emphasizing the importance of the Fed's independence for economic stability [6] Group 5: Future Outlook for Precious Metals - Analysts predict that the weakening of the Fed's independence and expectations of monetary easing will likely lead to a decline in the dollar's value, further boosting demand for gold as an inflation hedge [8][9] - The upcoming appointment of a new Fed chairman could significantly influence future monetary policy and the market's perception of the Fed's independence [9]

Market Performance - The three major US stock indices collectively rose, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 reaching new closing highs on January 9 [3][2] - The Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 indices increased by 0.48%, 0.81%, and 0.65% respectively, with all three indices gaining over 1% for the week [3] Chip Sector - US chip stocks experienced a significant rally, with Intel's stock price soaring nearly 11%, reaching a peak of $45.55 per share, resulting in a total market capitalization of $217.3 billion [5][2] - Other chip stocks such as Lam Research, Applied Materials, and ASML also saw gains of over 6%, with all three hitting historical highs during the trading session [5] Large Tech Stocks - Most large-cap tech stocks saw increases, with the US Technology Seven Giants Index rising by 0.48%. Notable performers included Tesla, which rose over 2%, and Meta, which increased by over 1% [6] - Other tech stocks like Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and Apple also posted modest gains, while Nvidia experienced a slight decline of 0.12% [6] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 1.3%, with several popular Chinese stocks declining, including Atour, which dropped over 5%, and Gaotu, which fell nearly 4% [6] Oil and Venezuela - President Trump held a meeting with major oil executives to discuss Venezuelan oil management, stating that the US government will decide which oil companies are allowed to invest in Venezuela [13][15] - The meeting aimed to address issues related to Venezuelan security and its people, with the potential to lower US oil prices and curb drug trafficking [13][15]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that silver futures are experiencing a significant decline, with the main contract dropping by 3.99% to 18,133.00 yuan per kilogram as of the latest report [1] - The iShares Silver Trust, the largest silver ETF globally, has seen a reduction in holdings by 84.6 tons, bringing the total to 16,305.96 tons, reflecting a decrease in investor interest [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver futures inventory has decreased to 796,000 contracts, down approximately 100,000 contracts from the previous week, indicating that some funds are exiting the market [2] Group 2 - Analysts from Hengyin Futures suggest that the ongoing peace efforts in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, despite slow progress, are contributing to a market correction due to profit-taking by long positions after previous gains [4] - Tianfeng Futures advises caution in trading at the current high levels of silver, recommending risk management and opportunistic buying, while emphasizing the need to monitor signals from the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and global industrial activity recovery [4]