Group 1: New Economic Dynamics - The high-tech manufacturing sector continues to show strong growth, indicating a new acceleration in economic dynamics [9][10] - Recent financial data shows a decline in credit balance and social financing, with M1 increasing slightly [17] - The impact of "anti-involution" is beginning to manifest in mid-to-lower production and investment sectors [21] Group 2: Gold Price Concerns - Recent trends indicate that gold price increases are primarily concentrated during U.S. trading hours, raising concerns about future price stability [12][11] - The differentiation in investment allocation among different regions may influence future gold price movements [12] Group 3: Fiscal Policy Insights - Broad fiscal spending is slowing down, prompting the need for potential countermeasures to address downward pressure on the economy [21][23] - The upcoming fiscal "second half" may focus on risk prevention, transformation promotion, and consumer protection [16] Group 4: Real Estate Market Trends - There is an improvement in new home transactions in first-tier cities, supported by industrial production recovery and high infrastructure investment [24] Group 5: International Cooperation - The BRICS summit emphasized the importance of multilateralism and international cooperation to address global challenges and promote economic development [29] Group 6: Monetary Policy Outlook - The recent FOMC meeting resulted in a 25 basis point rate cut, with increased expectations for further rate cuts in 2025 [30]

Group 1: Gold Futures Market - The Shanghai gold futures price on September 11 is reported at 833.82 CNY per gram, with an increase of 0.26% [1] - The opening price for the day was 834.06 CNY per gram, with a maximum of 840.82 CNY and a minimum of 827.26 CNY [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic News - The U.S. August CPI adjusted for seasonal changes recorded a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, the highest since January, exceeding market expectations of 0.3% [2] - The year-on-year CPI for August is reported at 2.9%, also the highest since January, aligning with market expectations [2] - Despite the CPI data indicating the largest inflation increase in seven months, it is anticipated that the Federal Reserve will proceed with interest rate cuts due to a weak job market [2] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is 93.9%, while the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 6.1% [2] - The U.S. Treasury Department has announced the largest sanctions against the Houthi movement to date, targeting 32 individuals and entities [2] Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - The weak performance of U.S. August employment data and stable core CPI year-on-year figures are leading to increased support for interest rate cuts from Federal Reserve officials [3] - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may cut rates by 25 basis points in September, October, December, and January, influenced by geopolitical risks such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict [3] - Continuous purchases of gold by central banks globally may lead to a bullish trend in precious metal prices, with support levels around 800-810 CNY and resistance levels around 840-850 CNY [3]

Group 1 - In July, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.5% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 2.8 percentage points compared to June, marking two consecutive months of narrowing [1][6] - High-tech manufacturing profits shifted from a 0.9% decline in June to an 18.9% increase in July, significantly boosting the overall profit growth rate of industrial enterprises [1][6] - From August 1 to 24, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the passenger car market reached 727,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 6% and a month-on-month increase of 7%, with a cumulative retail of 7.182 million units in 2023, up 27% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The 10-year government bond yield rose to 1.7625%, with a net withdrawal of 236.1 billion yuan in the central bank's open market operations [2][9] - The manufacturing PMI for August in both the US and Eurozone rebounded above the critical point, indicating a potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September [2][9] - The real estate market continues to adjust, with second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities declining month-on-month, prompting the government to enhance macro policy effectiveness [2][9] Group 3 - The palm oil production in Malaysia is expected to increase by 3.03% from the same period last month, while exports are projected to rise significantly [3][25] - The dual-fuel market is experiencing a mixed trend, with iron and coke prices showing fluctuations amid stable demand and increasing inventory levels [3][23] Group 4 - The upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit will take place from August 31 to September 1, 2025, in Tianjin, where member states will sign the "Tianjin Declaration" and approve the "10-Year Development Strategy of the SCO" [5]

Group 1 - The Shanghai gold futures closed at 770.28 yuan per gram on July 31, with a daily decline of 0.37% and a trading volume of 260,701 contracts [1] - The spot price of gold in Shanghai was quoted at 766.00 yuan per gram, indicating a discount of 4.28 yuan per gram compared to the futures price [1] - The U.S. Federal Reserve maintained its current policy stance, with Chairman Powell expressing a hawkish tone, which is expected to strengthen the short-term dollar and exert pressure on precious metal prices [2] Group 2 - The COMEX gold price has dipped to 3300, indicating a continued bearish trend in the short term, while silver maintains a bullish outlook [2] - The gold-silver ratio on the Shanghai Futures Exchange has narrowed to near a three-year average, suggesting that fluctuations in gold prices may have an amplified impact on silver prices [2] - The strategy recommended includes holding positions in gold and silver, with a focus on selling out-of-the-money put options for gold and maintaining long positions in silver [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the fluctuations in gold prices influenced by geopolitical events and economic indicators [1][2] - On July 24, the Shanghai gold futures closed at 778.74 yuan per gram, reflecting a decrease of 1.60% with a trading volume of 331,217 lots and an open interest of 213,456 lots [1] - The spot price of gold in Shanghai was reported at 775.10 yuan per gram, indicating a discount of 3.64 yuan per gram compared to the futures price [1] Group 2 - Gold and silver prices experienced a general decline, with COMEX gold futures dropping 1.34% to $3,397.50 per ounce and COMEX silver futures decreasing 0.09% to $39.52 per ounce [2] - The recent trade agreement between the US and Japan has contributed to reduced policy uncertainty, impacting precious metal prices negatively [2] - The current economic resilience in the US is reflected in the University of Michigan consumer confidence index reaching a five-month high, suggesting that inflationary pressures remain low [2]

Group 1 - COMEX silver inventory recorded at 15,464.10 tons on July 16, an increase of 16.99 tons from the previous day [1][2] - COMEX silver price closed at $38.13 per ounce on July 16, up 0.37%, with a daily high of $38.38 and a low of $37.75 [1] Group 2 - Speculation regarding President Trump's potential dismissal of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell caused fluctuations in gold and silver prices, although Trump later denied immediate plans to fire Powell [3] - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) remained flat in June, with a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, indicating the mildest annual growth since September of the previous year [3] - Market expectations suggest that precious metal prices may continue to show a strong oscillating trend due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and tariff risks [3]

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core driving factor for precious metal prices in the medium - term is the US fiscal and monetary policy expectations. The Fed's marginal easing in the second half of the year is certain, and a long - position approach should be maintained for silver prices [2]. - The game between Powell and the Trump administration on monetary policy will ultimately yield to the continuous development of the US fiscal situation. The Fed will keep the interest rate unchanged in the July meeting but show a marginal dovish stance, and cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the September meeting [3]. - Against the backdrop of the expected loosening of the Fed's monetary policy, attention should be focused on the opportunity to go long on silver. Gold will perform relatively weakly due to the gradual realization of the US wide - fiscal expectation. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 760 - 801 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 8638 - 9300 yuan/kilogram [3]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold rose 0.36% to 775.68 yuan/gram, Shanghai Silver fell 0.19% to 8916.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX Gold rose 0.08% to 3345.60 dollars/ounce, COMEX Silver rose 0.17% to 36.97 dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.4%, and the US dollar index was 97.37 [2]. - For various precious metal products, there were different daily changes in prices, trading volumes, and open interests. For example, the trading volume of COMEX Gold increased by 184.71% compared to the previous period, while the open interest decreased by 1.42% [6]. 2. Policy Expectations - US Treasury Secretary Besent believes the Fed will cut interest rates twice in the remaining time of this year. Trump's trade advisor Navarro called on the Fed to intervene in Powell's stance. Fed Governor Warsh also believes the Fed should cut interest rates [2]. 3. Charts and Data - Multiple charts show the relationships between precious metal prices, trading volumes, open interests, and other factors such as the US dollar index, real interest rates, etc. For example, Chart 11 shows the relationship between COMEX Gold price (dollars/ounce) and the real interest rate (%) [11]. - The report also provides data on the internal - external price differences of gold and silver, including SHFE - COMEX and SGE - LBMA price differences on July 7, 2025 [48].

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell met with President Trump to discuss economic growth, employment, and inflation, emphasizing that policy decisions will depend on upcoming economic data [2] - The revised first-quarter GDP for the U.S. shows a contraction of 0.2%, slightly improved from the initial estimate of a 0.3% decline, indicating economic shrinkage at the beginning of the year [2] - Consumer spending growth has been significantly downgraded, marking the weakest growth in nearly two years, while corporate profits plummeted by 2.9%, the largest drop since 2020 [2] Group 2: Trade and Policy Developments - The U.S. Court of Appeals has temporarily suspended a ruling that blocked Trump's global tariffs, with the court considering whether to extend this suspension [2] - The U.S. International Trade Court previously ruled that the government's imposition of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act was illegal, leading to the current legal uncertainty [2] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has responded to recent developments in U.S.-China trade talks, indicating ongoing communication regarding trade concerns, particularly around semiconductor export controls [2] Group 3: Market Analysis and Predictions - Jinrui Futures predicts that precious metal prices will experience weak fluctuations influenced by policy signals and macroeconomic data [3] - Recent trading saw an increase in precious metal prices, with COMEX gold futures rising by 0.61% to $3342.60 per ounce and silver futures up by 0.84% to $33.44 per ounce [3] - Despite the rise in precious metal prices, there is a lack of further upward momentum due to positive signals in tariff negotiations and strong U.S. economic data, suggesting a recovery in market risk appetite [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current expectations of the Fed's monetary policy and the release of overseas tariff risks are short - term negative factors for precious metal prices. However, from the perspective of the expansion process of the US fiscal deficit, the medium - term upward driving force for gold prices remains unchanged. It is recommended to wait for the price to show a significant correction and then go long on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 767 - 836 yuan/gram. Against the background of the Fed's hawkish monetary policy stance, silver prices will be weak. Currently, the silver price is still in a wide - range shock range. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct intraday short - selling on rallies. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 7804 - 8380 yuan/kg [2][3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold fell 1.81% to 786.42 yuan/gram, Shanghai Silver fell 0.12% to 8154.00 yuan/kg; COMEX Gold rose 0.41% to 3319.40 US dollars/ounce, COMEX Silver fell 0.01% to 32.62 US dollars/ounce; the US 10 - year Treasury yield was reported at 4.37%, and the US dollar index was reported at 100.64 [2] - The closing prices, previous trading day prices, daily changes, and percentage changes of various precious metal products such as Au(T + D), London Gold, SPDR Gold ETF holdings, etc. are presented in detail in the report [4] Market Outlook - US President Trump announced that the US will reach a trade agreement with the UK, canceling tariffs in some areas and expanding the mutual access scope of products between the two countries. German President Merz and Trump agreed to quickly resolve trade disputes, resulting in a phased release of overseas trade risks, which is a short - term negative factor for gold prices [2] - The US labor market data remains resilient. The number of initial jobless claims in the week ending May 3 was 228,000, lower than the expected 230,000 and the previous value of 241,000. The Fed's monetary policy stance in the recent interest - rate meeting was hawkish. Powell believes that multiple uncertainties support the Fed to "wait", and all committee members support this, and Trump's request for a rate cut will not affect the Fed's work [2] Key Data of Gold and Silver - For gold, COMEX gold's closing price (active contract) decreased by 1.84% to 3310.40 US dollars/ounce, trading volume increased by 8.74% to 300,000 lots, and open interest decreased by 2.90% to 451,900 lots. LBMA gold's closing price decreased by 1.18% to 3352.30 US dollars/ounce. SHFE gold's closing price (active contract) decreased by 1.58% to 790.78 yuan/gram, trading volume increased by 18.20% to 882,000 lots, and open interest increased by 2.15% to 455,600 lots. Au(T + D)'s closing price decreased by 1.42% to 787.53 yuan/gram, trading volume increased by 44.55% to 97.67 tons, and open interest increased by 1.71% to 216.40 tons [6] - For silver, COMEX silver's closing price (active contract) decreased by 0.02% to 32.61 US dollars/ounce, open interest increased by 3.91% to 152,700 lots, and inventory increased by 0.27% to 15,639 tons. LBMA silver's closing price decreased by 1.35% to 32.43 US dollars/ounce. SHFE silver's closing price (active contract) decreased by 1.91% to 8,094.00 yuan/kg, trading volume increased by 41.45% to 1,350,800 lots, and open interest increased by 3.63% to 883,000 lots. Ag(T + D)'s closing price decreased by 1.57% to 8,100.00 yuan/kg, trading volume increased by 50.18% to 663.98 tons, and open interest decreased by 3.78% to 3,362.624 tons [6] Price Structure and Spread - The report presents the near - far month structure of COMEX gold, Shanghai Gold, COMEX silver, and Shanghai Silver, as well as the spreads between London Gold - COMEX gold, London Silver - COMEX silver, SHFE - COMEX, and SGE - LBMA for both gold and silver [18][20][31][38][50]