Group 1: Price Performance - London Gold's latest price is 4456.45, with a change of -108.10 [1] - London Silver's latest price is 67.29, with a change of -5.88 [1] - London Platinum's latest price is 1950.00, with a change of 58.00 [1] - London Palladium's latest price is 1434.00, with a change of 41.00 [1] - WTI Crude's latest price is 94.48, with a change of 4.16 [1] - LME Copper's latest price is 12201.00, with a change of -28.00 [1] Group 2: Trading Data - COMEX Silver's latest inventory is 10218.98, with a change of -9.13 [2] - SHFE Silver's latest inventory is 370.30, with a change of -5.79 [2] - Gold ETF's latest holding is 1052.70, with a change of 0.28 [2] - Silver ETF's latest holding is 15409.46, with a change of -104.21 [2] - SGE Silver's latest inventory is 371.99, with a change of 0.00 [2] - SGE Gold's latest deferred fee payment direction is 1, with a change of 0.00 [2] - SGE Silver's latest deferred fee payment direction is 2, with a change of 0.00 [2] Group 3: Other Data - US Dollar Index's latest value is 99.92, with a change of 0.28 [11] - EUR/USD's latest value is 1.15, with a change of -0.00 [11] - GBP/USD's latest value is 1.33, with a change of -0.00 [11] - USD/JPY's latest value is 159.75, with a change of 0.28 [11] - US 10 - year TIPS's latest value is 2.02, with a change of 0.00 [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The current gold price maintains a narrow - range oscillation, showing a sideways consolidation trend. After the short - term boost of geopolitics to gold and silver prices, the sharp rise in oil prices under the background of the US - Iran war triggers market inflation expectations and makes the market re - evaluate the US economy's ability to withstand energy shocks. In February 2026, the US CPI and core CPI were 2.4% and 2.5% respectively, remaining flat for two consecutive months. The stickiness of the service end is the core resistance to the decline of inflation, while the slowdown of housing inflation and the continuation of commodity deflation provide key impetus for long - term inflation cooling. In the context of rising energy prices, it may re - intensify price upward pressure, which will make the Fed cautious about the interest - rate cut rhythm, and it is difficult to see rapid easing policy signals in the short term, suppressing precious metal prices. The strategy is to be cautiously bearish, with the reference operating range of the main Shanghai gold contract being 1100 - 1200 yuan/gram and that of the main Shanghai silver contract being 20500 - 23000 yuan/kilogram [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Shanghai gold fell 0.37% to 1151.48 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver fell 1.88% to 21997.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold fell 0.07% to 5175.30 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver fell 0.06% to 85.48 US dollars/ounce; the US 10 - year Treasury yield was reported at 4.21%, and the US dollar index was reported at 99.37 [2] - In February 2026, the US CPI and core CPI were 2.4% and 2.5% respectively, remaining flat for two consecutive months. Before the escalation of the current geopolitical conflict, the US inflation pressure had shown significant signs of relief. The CPI had a mild month - on - month increase of 0.3%, the core CPI month - on - month was also stable at 0.2%, and the year - on - year increase of core inflation remained at a near - five - year low [2] - The spokesman of the Central Command of Khatam al - Anbiya in Iran severely warned that Iran is fully capable of blocking the Strait of Hormuz and clearly stated that "no liter of oil will be allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz under conditions favorable to the US and its allies." To deal with the violent shock in the energy market and relieve the supply tension, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced that it would release 400 million barrels of emergency oil reserves into the market. Meanwhile, the Trump administration plans to launch multiple trade investigations on Wednesday local time according to Article 301 of the 1974 Trade Act through the US Trade Representative's Office to pave the way for imposing new tariffs, covering issues such as digital service tax and exchange - rate manipulation [3] 3.2 Strategy View - The current gold price maintains a narrow - range oscillation, showing a sideways consolidation trend. Geopolitics provides short - term support for gold and silver prices, and the sharp rise in oil prices under the US - Iran war background triggers inflation expectations. The US inflation was in a moderate decline channel before the Middle East conflict, but the stickiness of the service end slows down the decline rhythm. Rising energy prices may re - intensify price upward pressure, making the Fed cautious about interest - rate cuts and suppressing precious metal prices in the short term. The strategy is to be cautiously bearish, with the reference operating range of the main Shanghai gold contract being 1100 - 1200 yuan/gram and that of the main Shanghai silver contract being 20500 - 23000 yuan/kilogram [4] 3.3 Gold and Silver Data - **Gold**: COMEX gold's open interest decreased by 2.47% to 40.98 million lots; LBMA gold's closing price rose 2.43% to 5209.70 US dollars/ounce; SHFE gold's open interest increased by 2.72% to 30.57 million lots, and the precipitation funds increased by 2.90% to 56.346 billion yuan; AuT + D's trading volume decreased by 12.13% to 40.35 tons, and the open interest decreased by 0.38% to 243.01 tons [8] - **Silver**: COMEX silver's open interest decreased by 9.67% to 11.33 million lots; LBMA silver's closing price rose 6.09% to 88.53 US dollars/ounce; SHFE silver's open interest decreased by 0.75% to 48.91 million lots, and the precipitation funds decreased by 2.94% to 29.393 billion yuan; AgT + D's trading volume decreased by 43.61% to 195.49 tons, and the open interest decreased by 1.11% to 2860.266 tons [8] 3.4 ETF Holdings - **Gold**: The holdings of iShare US remained unchanged at 494.04 tons; the holdings of GBS UK remained unchanged at 30.59 tons; the holdings of PHAU UK decreased by 0.10% to 54.41 tons; the holdings of GOLD UK increased by 0.12% to 29.96 tons; the holdings of SGBS Switzerland remained unchanged at 35.20 tons [64] - **Silver**: The closing price of silver ETFs fell 2.72% to 77.91 US dollars; the holdings of SLV US decreased by 0.74% to 15539.06 tons, and the precipitation funds decreased by 3.31% to 4.3073 billion US dollars; the trading volume decreased by 20.87% to 29.3077 million shares; the holdings of ETPMAG Australia remained unchanged at 487.41 tons; the holdings of PSLV Canada remained unchanged at 6747.37 tons; the holdings of CEF Canada remained unchanged at 1583.02 tons [64]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Neutral [8] - Silver: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: Hold off [9] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East are intensifying, with the continuous spread of the conflict between Iran and Israel, which has led to a rise in energy prices and reignited market inflation concerns [1] - Traders' bets on the probability of the Fed's second interest rate cut this year have dropped to 50%, significantly raising the threshold for interest rate cuts, which has a significant suppressing effect on precious metal prices [1] - Due to the current market conditions, the prices of gold and silver are expected to remain in a volatile pattern in the near future [8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East are intensifying, with Iran and Israel engaging in continuous attacks and counterattacks. The new round of stock selling wave driven by Trump's stance has led to a continuous rise in energy prices and reignited market inflation concerns [1] - Traders' bets on the probability of the Fed's second interest rate cut this year have dropped to 50%, significantly raising the threshold for interest rate cuts, which has a significant suppressing effect on precious metal prices [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On March 3, 2026, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 1,199.52 yuan/gram and closed at 1,182.00 yuan/gram, a change of -1.27% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume on that day was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 1,163.20 yuan/gram and closed at 1,144.98 yuan/gram, a 3.13% decline from the afternoon close [2] - On March 3, 2026, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 24,449.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 21,645.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of -11.40% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume on that day was 713,888 lots, and the open interest was 161,172 lots. In the night session, it opened at 21,300 yuan/kilogram and closed at 21,521 yuan/kilogram, a 0.57% decline from the afternoon close [2] U.S. Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On March 3, 2026, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.059%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries was 0.557%, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2604 contract, the number of long positions decreased by 9,573 lots compared to the previous day, while the number of short positions decreased by 741 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract on the previous trading day was 544,885 lots, a change of 24.12% from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2604 contract, the number of long positions decreased by 4,558 lots, and the number of short positions decreased by 5,767 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 1,910,286 lots, a change of 43.74% from the previous trading day [4] Tracking of Precious Metal ETF Positions - The gold ETF position was 1,101.33 tons, an increase of 3.43 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,902 tons, a decrease of 90 tons from the previous trading day [5] Tracking of Precious Metal Arbitrage - On March 3, 2026, the domestic premium for gold was 18.57 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was 1,826.31 yuan/kilogram [6] - The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was approximately 54.61, a change of 11.44% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 56.97, a change of -3.96% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On March 3, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 81,118 kilograms, a change of 33.10% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 504,106 kilograms, a change of -38.53% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kilograms [7] Strategies - Gold: It is expected that the gold price will mainly be in a volatile pattern in the near future, with the Au2604 contract's volatility range likely to be between 1,100 yuan/gram and 1,200 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: Similar to gold, the silver price is also expected to maintain a volatile pattern, with the Ag2604 contract's volatility range likely to be between 21,000 yuan/kilogram and 23,000 yuan/kilogram [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: Hold off [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the Shanghai silver spot price on February 13 was quoted at 19822 yuan per kilogram, which is 40 yuan per kilogram higher than the futures main price of 19782 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a premium in the spot market [3] - The U.S. January employment data showed strong performance, which may influence market expectations regarding Federal Reserve policies [3] - Treasury Secretary Bessent supports the Senate taking over the investigation into Powell rather than the Justice Department, indicating a shift in political dynamics that could impact market sentiment [3] Group 2 - The strengthening of the U.S. dollar index, influenced by signals from Russian President Putin regarding a return to the dollar system, may put pressure on precious metal prices [3] - Despite potential short-term pressures, the expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June, as indicated by Bessent, along with ongoing purchases of gold by multiple central banks, may support precious metal prices in the medium to long term [3]

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in gold prices are driven by changing market perceptions regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve and the evolving situation in Iran, leading to rapid price increases followed by significant declines [1] Market Analysis - The speculative capital in the market has amplified the trend changes in gold prices [1] - Short-term market expectations may have overestimated Kevin Warsh's "hawkish" stance, while uncertainty surrounding the situation in Iran remains high [1] Future Outlook - The company maintains an optimistic outlook for precious and non-ferrous metal prices for the year 2026 [1] Risk Factors - Key risk factors include geopolitical risks, lower-than-expected gold purchases by global central banks, less-than-expected easing by the Federal Reserve, lower-than-expected U.S. fiscal deficits, and U.S. economic growth exceeding expectations [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that recent fluctuations in gold prices are driven by concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve and changes in expectations regarding the situation in Iran, leading to a rapid rise followed by significant volatility in gold prices [1] - The market may have overestimated the hawkish stance of the new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh, while uncertainty regarding the situation in Iran remains high, suggesting that gold market volatility may only settle once the situation stabilizes [1] - For the year 2026, the company maintains an optimistic outlook on the prices of precious metals and non-ferrous metals [1]

Group 1 - The extreme market conditions are influenced by the market's adjustment to the monetary policy stance of the new Federal Reserve Chairman, Walsh, raising concerns about a slowdown in monetary easing by 2026, which may pressure precious metal prices [1] - Gold has been perceived as a "risk asset" due to its significant price increase, leading to a strong demand for price correction, compounded by high levels of bullish trading that could trigger a sell-off if prices decline [1] - Silver follows a similar logic, with high bullish trading and previous price increases resulting in substantial unrealized gains, making it susceptible to a sell-off reaction in the event of price declines [1] Group 2 - In the long term, gold is expected to remain an irreplaceable asset for value preservation, with ongoing demand for dollar asset alternatives and existing risk premiums, suggesting a strategy of buying on dips [1] - Short-term risks of further price corrections for gold are acknowledged, while silver is advised to be approached with caution due to its high volatility [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that there is an opportunity for coordinated optimization in the policy regarding precious metal prices, and the key price movements should not rely on interventions from COMEX, as the influence primarily lies within the domestic market [1] - China will implement strategic export controls on physical silver stocks starting January 1, 2026, which will convert excess unrefined silver into domestic reserves, thereby hindering global silver flow and necessitating a reassessment of silver's value [1][2] - China is the largest silver exporter, accounting for 23.4% of global trade volume in 2024, which will lead to a decrease in global supply by approximately 4,000 to 5,000 tons [2] Group 2 - As of the end of October, China's gold reserves reached 74.09 million ounces, marking the 14th consecutive month of increases, which supports the narrative of rising gold and silver prices alongside a weakening dollar [3] - Hong Kong aims to achieve a target of 2,000 tons of gold over three years, which may require a premium of at least 10% for purchases from the West, potentially leading to a shift of offshore RMB and USD into gold [4][5] - The market perceives a conflict where regulatory efforts to control prices are countered by industrial pressures from third-party stockpiling, which drives up costs, indicating that without breaking the price transmission path, significant price adjustments are likely [7]

Price Performance - London Gold latest price is 4623.05, with a change of 10.10 [1] - London Silver latest price is 85.82, with a change of 1.75 [1] - London Platinum latest price is 2374.00, with a change of 92.00 [1] - London Palladium latest price is 1865.00, with a change of 32.00 [1] - WTI Crude latest price is 61.15, with a change of 1.65 [1] - LME Copper latest price is 13067.50, with a change of -125.50 [1] - US Dollar Index latest is 99.18, with a change of 0.29 [1] - Euro to US Dollar latest is 1.16, with a change of -0.00 [1] - British Pound to US Dollar latest is 1.34, with a change of -0.00 [1] - US Dollar to Japanese Yen latest is 159.17, with a change of 1.00 [1] Trading Data - COMEX Silver inventory latest is 13550.90, with a change of -56.41 [1] - SHFE Silver inventory latest is 630.07, with a change of -19.57 [1] - Gold ETF holdings latest is 1074.23, with a change of 3.43 [1] - Silver ETF holdings latest is 16321.16, with a change of -26.79 [1] - SGE Gold deferred fee payment direction latest is 2, with a change of 0.00 [1] - SGE Silver deferred fee payment direction latest is 2, with a change of 0.00 [1]

Group 1: Market Performance - The US stock market saw a slight increase on Monday, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices reaching all-time highs, closing at 69,777.27 and 49,590.20 points respectively [1] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose by 4.26%, with notable gains in Chinese stocks such as Alibaba, which increased by over 10% [1] Group 2: Precious Metals - Precious metals prices surged to record highs, with spot gold exceeding $4,600 per ounce and silver prices rising over 8% to surpass $86 per ounce [1][7] - The increase in precious metals is attributed to concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve and uncertainty in monetary policy, which are expected to provide long-term support for gold and silver prices [7][9] Group 3: Oil Prices - Oil prices reached their highest levels since December 2025, with WTI crude oil futures closing at $59.50 per barrel, marking a 0.64% increase [1] - The rise in oil prices is driven by investor concerns regarding potential supply disruptions from Iran amid ongoing geopolitical tensions [1] Group 4: Federal Reserve and Political Influence - The Trump administration's threat of a criminal investigation against Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has raised concerns about the Fed's independence, potentially impacting monetary policy and market confidence [5][6] - A group of former financial officials criticized the investigation, emphasizing the importance of the Fed's independence for economic stability [6] Group 5: Future Outlook for Precious Metals - Analysts predict that the weakening of the Fed's independence and expectations of monetary easing will likely lead to a decline in the dollar's value, further boosting demand for gold as an inflation hedge [8][9] - The upcoming appointment of a new Fed chairman could significantly influence future monetary policy and the market's perception of the Fed's independence [9]