公允价值修复，美元兑日元将反弹 摩根士丹利包括Matthew Hornbach在内的策略师在周日的一份报告中指出，当前美元兑日元的定价与基本面存在偏离。这一判断的核心逻辑在于 美国国债收益率的下行趋势，预计这将推动汇率向公允价值回归。 根据该行的具体预测，美元兑日元将在2026年第一季度跌至140左右。但这一升值趋势可能只是阶段性的。策略师们预计，随着美国经济复苏，套 利交易的需求将重新被激活，从而在明年下半年再次对日元构成下行压力。该行预计，到2026年年底，美元兑日元将反弹至147左右。 官方高度关注与干预风险 在日元汇率徘徊在157附近的背景下，市场投资者正密切评估官方进行市场干预的风险。日本财务大臣片山皋月及其他官员近期已表达了对日元疲 软的担忧。片山皋月特别提到，干预是可选方案之一，尽管其此番言论目前对市场的实际影响有限。 摩根士丹利策略师预测，随着美国经济放缓迹象日益明显，如果美联储在此背景下实施连续降息，日元兑美元汇率有望在未来几个月内升值近 10%。 该行指出，目前美元兑日元汇率已脱离公允价值。如果这一关系得以修复，随着美国国债收益率下降拉低公允价值，美元兑日元预计将在2026年 第一季度出现 ...

每经AI快讯，11月21日，10年期日本国债收益率下跌2个基点至1.795%。 ...

Core Points - The 10-year Japanese government bond yield has increased by 1.5 basis points, reaching 1.705%, marking the highest level since June 2008 [1] Group 1 - The rise in the 10-year Japanese government bond yield indicates a significant shift in the bond market [1] - The current yield level reflects broader economic conditions and investor sentiment towards Japanese government debt [1] - This increase may influence future monetary policy decisions by the Bank of Japan [1]

Core Viewpoint - The 10-year Japanese government bond yield has decreased by 1 basis point to 1.69% as of November 11 [1] Group 1 - The decline in the 10-year Japanese government bond yield indicates a potential shift in investor sentiment towards safer assets [1]

Core Viewpoint - The yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds has increased by 1.5 basis points to 1.675% [1] Group 1 - The rise in yield indicates a potential shift in investor sentiment towards Japanese government bonds [1]

Core Viewpoint - The 10-year Japanese government bond yield has increased by 1 basis point to 1.665% on October 24 [1] Group 1 - The rise in the 10-year Japanese government bond yield indicates a slight upward trend in interest rates [1]

Core Viewpoint - Concerns are rising regarding Japan's new Prime Minister's potential increase in borrowing, which may lead to a surge in long-term Japanese government bond yields, possibly triggering a repeat of the "Japanese bond sell-off storm" that previously impacted global financial markets [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Policies and Market Reactions - The new Prime Minister, high市早苗, is expected to revive "Abenomics," focusing on aggressive fiscal stimulus and a cautious stance on monetary tightening, which has led to significant market volatility [2][3]. - The "Sanae trade" reflects market expectations of stronger fiscal stimulus and mild monetary policy, resulting in a rapid rise in Japanese stock prices and a depreciation of the yen [2][3]. Group 2: Bond Yield Predictions - Claire Huang from Amundi predicts that the 30-year Japanese government bond yield could exceed 3.5%, representing an increase of nearly 40 basis points from recent trading levels [1][2]. - The 30-year bond yield recently reached 3.345%, the highest since its issuance in 1999, indicating a trend of poor performance for Japanese long-term bonds this year [2][3]. Group 3: Inflation and Monetary Policy - The potential for rising inflation and the unclear specifics of high市's economic measures may deter investors from returning to long-term Japanese bonds until more clarity is provided [3]. - The 10-year Japanese government bond yield is projected to face upward risks, potentially reaching 1.8%, as the Bank of Japan gradually reduces its bond holdings under the yield curve control policy [4]. Group 4: Global Context and Currency Implications - The "term premium" phenomenon, where investors demand higher yields for holding long-term bonds, is becoming more pronounced, particularly in the U.S. bond market, which may influence Japanese bond yields [4][5]. - The depreciation of the yen, which has fallen approximately 2.5% recently, could strengthen the case for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates, as higher import costs contribute to domestic inflation pressures [5].

Core Points - The 10-year Japanese government bond yield decreased by 1 basis point to 1.685% [1]

Group 1 - The 10-year Japanese government bond yield has increased by 2 basis points to 1.69%, marking the highest level since July 2008 [1]

Group 1 - BlueBay Asset Management has established a long position in the Japanese yen, betting on a leadership change in Japan and a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan in October, which could strengthen the yen further [1] - The company shorted the US dollar when the USD/JPY exchange rate approached 150, believing that action from the Bank of Japan in October is likely [1] - Investors view the newly announced candidate for the Liberal Democratic Party leadership, Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, as more supportive of interest rate hikes compared to his potential rival, Sanae Takaichi, who is seen as favoring loose monetary policy [1] Group 2 - BlueBay expects the USD/JPY exchange rate to fluctuate towards 140 in the short term, with a fair value closer to 135 in the medium term; the yen has depreciated by 0.8% against the dollar over the past three months, making it the worst-performing currency among the G10 [1] - The company's views contrast with hedge funds, which have increased short positions in the yen for four consecutive weeks, while strategists from Bank of America and HSBC also predict further depreciation of the yen [4] - BlueBay has increased its yen positions in the past month, driven by indications from Bank of Japan officials that policy normalization is on track, barring political risks [4] Group 3 - The probability of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan by the end of the year is currently estimated at around 60%, according to overnight index swaps (OIS) pricing [4] - The political and fiscal uncertainties in Japan have pushed up long-term government bond yields, with the 30-year bond yield recently reaching a historical high of 3.285% [4] - If Koizumi wins the LDP leadership election and the Bank of Japan implements a rate hike, BlueBay may consider shifting to a long position in long-term Japanese government bonds [5]