10年期日本国债

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10年期日本国债收益率下跌1个基点,至1.685%
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-10-09 00:33
每经AI快讯,10月9日,10年期日本国债收益率下跌1个基点,至1.685%。 ...
10年期日本国债收益率上涨2个基点
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-10-07 00:58
(文章来源:每日经济新闻) 每经AI快讯,10月7日,10年期日本国债收益率上涨2个基点,至1.69%,为2008年7月以来的最高水 平。 ...
顶级资管做多日元:赌小泉获胜+日本央行10月加息
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-09-17 08:39
Group 1 - BlueBay Asset Management has established a long position in the Japanese yen, betting on a leadership change in Japan and a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan in October, which could strengthen the yen further [1] - The company shorted the US dollar when the USD/JPY exchange rate approached 150, believing that action from the Bank of Japan in October is likely [1] - Investors view the newly announced candidate for the Liberal Democratic Party leadership, Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, as more supportive of interest rate hikes compared to his potential rival, Sanae Takaichi, who is seen as favoring loose monetary policy [1] Group 2 - BlueBay expects the USD/JPY exchange rate to fluctuate towards 140 in the short term, with a fair value closer to 135 in the medium term; the yen has depreciated by 0.8% against the dollar over the past three months, making it the worst-performing currency among the G10 [1] - The company's views contrast with hedge funds, which have increased short positions in the yen for four consecutive weeks, while strategists from Bank of America and HSBC also predict further depreciation of the yen [4] - BlueBay has increased its yen positions in the past month, driven by indications from Bank of Japan officials that policy normalization is on track, barring political risks [4] Group 3 - The probability of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan by the end of the year is currently estimated at around 60%, according to overnight index swaps (OIS) pricing [4] - The political and fiscal uncertainties in Japan have pushed up long-term government bond yields, with the 30-year bond yield recently reaching a historical high of 3.285% [4] - If Koizumi wins the LDP leadership election and the Bank of Japan implements a rate hike, BlueBay may consider shifting to a long position in long-term Japanese government bonds [5]
10年期日本国债收益率下跌1个基点,至1.59%
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-09-05 00:06
Group 1 - The 10-year Japanese government bond yield decreased by 1 basis point to 1.59% [1]
日本长期限国债抛压迎来缓和 10年期国债拍卖呈现2023年以来最强劲需求
智通财经网· 2025-09-02 07:14
Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the 10-year Japanese government bond yield has turned downward from a 17-year high, with strong demand observed in the latest auction, indicating a potential easing of investor concerns regarding a sell-off in long-term Japanese bonds [1][4][8] - The 10-year Japanese government bond yield decreased by 2 basis points to 1.60%, after reaching 1.625% on Monday, which is close to the highest level since 2008 [1][4] - The auction results showed a significant increase in the bid-to-cover ratio for the 10-year bonds, rising from 3.06 to 3.92, indicating robust demand compared to the average over the past 12 months [1][4] Group 2 - The successful issuance of the bonds has alleviated global investor anxiety about a potential sell-off in long-term Japanese bonds, which had been under pressure due to concerns over the Bank of Japan's monetary policy and government spending [4][8] - The Bank of Japan's Deputy Governor reiterated the established monetary policy path to raise the benchmark interest rate when conditions allow, without indicating when this might occur [5] - Market participants are closely watching the upcoming auction of 30-year bonds, which could impact secondary market demand for bonds [6][7] Group 3 - Political uncertainty remains a concern, as the ruling party is set to release a report on its recent electoral losses, which could affect the stability of Prime Minister Kishida [6][7] - The market is speculating on potential changes in leadership within the ruling party, which could influence long-term bond yields [7][8] - The demand for long-term Japanese bonds appears to be driven by expectations of a potential reduction in the issuance of ultra-long government bonds following discussions with primary dealers [7][8]
美国房地产市场仍弱——全球经济观察第9期【陈兴团队•财通宏观】
陈兴宏观研究· 2025-08-23 16:02
Global Asset Price Performance - US Treasury yields declined, with the 10-year yield down by 7 basis points, likely due to dovish comments from Powell at the Jackson Hole meeting [2] - Major global stock markets saw mixed results, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones increasing by 0.3% and 1.5% respectively, while the Nasdaq Composite fell by 0.6% [2] - Oil prices rebounded, with WTI and Brent crude rising by 1.4% and 2.9% respectively, and gold prices increased by 1.1% [2] - The US dollar index decreased by 0.1% [2] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - Powell signaled a dovish stance at the Jackson Hole meeting, indicating that the Fed may need to adjust its policy stance due to increased risks of employment downturn and reduced inflation risks [4] - The Fed's July meeting minutes suggested that officials believe interest rates are close to neutral, and maintaining the current stance is appropriate [4] - The Bank of Japan approved the first domestic yen stablecoin, JPYC, supporting financial technology innovation [4] US Economic Dynamics - The US housing market remains weak, with July new housing starts showing a year-on-year increase primarily due to a low base from the previous year [8] - The NAHB housing market index slightly decreased to 32, remaining in negative territory for 16 consecutive months [8] - The US has added 407 steel and aluminum products to its tariff list, with a 50% tax rate, which may increase procurement costs for downstream manufacturing companies [9] Other Regional Economic Dynamics - The Eurozone showed resilience with a 0.1% GDP growth in Q2 and a July CPI annual rate of 2%, aligning with the ECB's target [19] - Japan's long-term bond yields have risen, with the 20-year yield reaching 2.7%, the highest since 1999, driven by inflation expectations and concerns over fiscal expansion [19]
大米与加工食品推升通胀 日本央行10月加息预期升温
智通财经网· 2025-08-22 02:24
Core Insights - Despite a slowdown in the pace of price growth, Japan's consumer inflation remains significantly above the Bank of Japan's target of 2%, driven by persistently high rice prices, leading to increased market speculation about a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan this year [1][6][7] Inflation Data - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) in July rose by 3.1% year-on-year, slightly down from 3.3% in the previous month, while economists had expected a 3.0% increase [1][7] - A deeper price measure, excluding both energy and fresh food, remained stable at a 3.4% increase, indicating persistent inflationary pressures in Japan [1][4] Economic Commentary - Economists emphasize that a decline in core CPI does not necessarily indicate weakening inflation, as food prices continue to rise, reflecting companies' willingness to pass on costs to consumers [4][8] - The recent drop in energy prices contributed to the overall inflation slowdown, but underlying price pressures remain strong due to rising rice prices and labor costs [4][5] Market Expectations - Market expectations for a rate hike by the Bank of Japan have increased, with a 51% probability of a rate increase by the end of October, up from 45% prior to the inflation data release [7][8] - The yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds reached its highest level since 2008, driven by market bets on rising policy rates [7] Political Context - Rising living costs have led to significant public dissatisfaction, impacting the recent elections and putting pressure on Prime Minister Kishida's government to consider more fiscal measures to support consumers [5][8] Future Projections - Economists predict that while the Bank of Japan could raise rates based on inflation data, they may wait to assess wage growth dynamics and the impact of monetary policy on global markets, with December or January being more likely for a rate hike, though October remains a possibility [8]
什么情况?日本新发10年期国债现零交易
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-13 10:42
Group 1 - Japan's newly issued 10-year government bonds had no transactions for the first time since March 27, 2023, highlighting the ongoing volatility in the global market and significant rise in yields, particularly for long-term bonds [1] - According to recent analysis, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) plans to implement a Quantitative Tightening (QT) strategy starting August 2024, which will reduce its total government bond holdings by 7%-8% by March 2026 and by 16%-17% by March 2027 [1] - The BOJ's decision to slow down the QT plan and maintain its long-term bond purchase strategy, along with the Ministry of Finance's plan to reduce long-term bond issuance by 3.2 trillion yen, is expected to alleviate liquidity concerns in the Japanese government bond market [1] Group 2 - As liquidity in the government bond market improves, short-term declines in Japanese bond yields and a potential depreciation of the yen are anticipated, with the 10-year bond yield having already decreased by 15 basis points from its peak in May, with an additional potential decline of 15-30 basis points [1] - In the medium term, interest rate hikes and QT are expected to support a rebound in the yen and an eventual rise in Japanese bond yields, with the 10-year bond yield potentially reaching a central level of 1.88% [3]
日本新发10年期国债全天无交易,为2023年3月以来首次
Huan Qiu Wang· 2025-08-13 01:14
中期来看,加息和QT继续支持日元回调后升值、日债利率回落后上行。中期日本央行国债总资产变化或支持10Y日债 利率中枢上行到1.88%。 兴业研究近日撰文分析认为,2025年6月议息会议上日本央行制定了2026财年QT(量化紧缩)计划,其二级市场增量 购债规模下降的速率较2025财年放缓。日本央行自2024年8月开启QT计划,此举将使其持有国债总资产至2026年3月末 下降7%-8%,至2027年3月末下降16%-17%。日本央行放缓QT计划,且保持长期限国债购买计划不变,加之财务省计 划缩发长期限国债3.2万亿日元,预计日本国债市场流动性的担忧将缓解。若担忧不减,日本央行保留采取阶段性措施 呵护流动性的可能性。 【环球网财经综合报道】日前,日本机构经纪商Japan Bond Trading数据显示,日本新发行的10年期国债周二未有任何 交易,这是2023年3月27日以来的首次。今年以来,日本一直是全球市场动荡的焦点,收益率大幅上升,尤其是较长 期债券收益率的飙升甚至波及了其他市场。 兴业研究还提示,随着国债市场流动性缓解,日债利率短线回落、日元贬值波段已来临。目前10Y日债利率已从5月高 点下行15bp,或还 ...
10年期日本国债收益率上升1.5个基点,至1.515%
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-08-13 00:17
Group 1 - The 10-year Japanese government bond yield increased by 1.5 basis points to 1.515% [1]