Core Viewpoint - The current period is marked by significant changes in geopolitical, trade, and immigration aspects, but this does not alter the approach to monetary policy formulation [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasizes the importance of maintaining a consistent monetary policy despite external changes [1]

市场消息：美国总统特朗普和加拿大总理卡尼正在进行一对一的闭门会谈。贸易将是两位领导人可能讨 论的话题。 ...

一名美国高级官员宣称，总统特朗普将在加拿大G7峰会上侧重于AI、矿业、能源、贸易。 ...

Group 1: Inflation Data - Core CPI continues to rise, indicating steady internal demand recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 0.6% in May, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[7] - Overall CPI in May decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, with energy prices dropping by 6.1%, a decline that expanded by 1.3 percentage points compared to the previous month[7] - Non-food CPI remained stable year-on-year, reflecting a steady performance in consumer prices[7] Group 2: Trade Data - In May, China's exports amounted to $316.1 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, which was below the market expectation of 6.2% and the previous month's 8.1%[14] - Exports to the U.S. fell by 34.5% in May, a decline that widened by 13.5 percentage points from the previous month, despite expectations of recovery due to tariff reductions[14][15] - Exports to Japan and ASEAN countries grew by 6.2% and 14.8% respectively, indicating relative stability in trade with other regions[14] Group 3: Economic Outlook - Signs of weakening consumer momentum are evident, with some policy-supported categories showing price stagnation or decline[6][8] - High inventory levels among U.S. wholesalers and retailers suggest a lack of urgency to replenish stock, impacting China's export dynamics[15] - The need for counter-cyclical policies is emphasized to stabilize expectations and ensure steady economic performance amid external uncertainties[29]

双方讨论了汇率和贸易问题，都认为汇率应该由市场决定。 美国财政部：财政部长贝森特会见日本财务大臣。 ...

美联储威廉姆斯：贸易是一个尤其不确定的因素。 ...

Group 1 - The forum highlighted the impact of the Trump administration's tariff policies, aiming to reduce trade deficits and increase U.S. fiscal revenue, while potentially restructuring the international trade and investment system with a more prominent U.S. role [1] - The rebalancing of trade and investment costs is creating more opportunities for developing countries in the Global South, as companies face greater uncertainty and seek cost-effective locations for operations [2] - Major economies are undergoing profound internal economic adjustments due to global trade rebalancing, with a focus on domestic economic structure to effectively address trade imbalances [2] Group 2 - The global monetary system is expected to evolve towards a more diverse and inclusive framework, with potential changes driven by the inclusion of more currencies and increased attention to digital currencies [3] - China's cross-border investments have significantly increased, with over $3 trillion in direct investment stock from 2014 to 2024, indicating strong participation in international markets and supply chains [4] - Chinese companies are increasingly establishing industrial parks abroad, creating industrial clusters that contribute to local economic development and infrastructure improvements [5]

Group 1 - The future international monetary system will be more diverse and inclusive, with significant adjustments occurring in the current international trade system, allowing Chinese enterprises to seize opportunities despite changes [1][3] - The rebalancing of trade and investment costs now includes factors such as innovation, institutional frameworks, green development, geopolitical considerations, and ideology, leading to greater uncertainty for entrepreneurs while still focusing on maximizing efficiency and effectiveness [3] - Historical experience suggests that a country can only effectively resolve trade imbalances when its internal economic structure is more balanced [3] Group 2 - The rebalancing of currencies will guide the world monetary system towards greater diversity and inclusiveness, despite the current dominance of the US dollar facing challenges such as currency weaponization and the Triffin dilemma [3][4] - The emergence of more currencies in international trade will not only serve trade and investment but also contribute to financial stability, with increased attention on the role of cryptocurrencies in cross-border trade and investment [4] - Chinese enterprises have shown resilience in international markets, transitioning from labor-intensive to technology-driven investments, and are actively participating in local infrastructure development, contributing to economic growth beyond just employment and tax revenue [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the future international monetary system will become more diverse and inclusive, influenced by current trade and investment dynamics, particularly tariff issues [3][4][6] - The first key point is the rebalancing of cost-effectiveness in trade and investment, with emerging markets in the "Global South" becoming more attractive due to lower costs and tariffs [3][4] - The second key point highlights that global trade rebalancing will lead to profound adjustments in the internal economic structures of major economies, with historical evidence suggesting that internal economic balance is crucial for resolving trade imbalances [4][5] Group 2 - The third key point discusses how monetary rebalancing will guide the world monetary system towards greater diversity and inclusiveness, addressing issues like the dominance of the US dollar and the "Triffin dilemma" [4][5] - More currencies are expected to join the international monetary system, with increased use of emerging market currencies for trade and investment [5] - There will be a greater emphasis on digital currencies, particularly for cross-border trade and investment, and a potential enhancement of the Special Drawing Rights (SDR) function by the International Monetary Fund [5][6] Group 3 - China's cross-border investment has seen rapid growth, with private enterprises being the main force behind foreign investments, demonstrating resilience and adaptability in changing global conditions [7][8] - From 2014 to 2024, China's direct investment stock is projected to exceed $3 trillion, significantly higher than the previous two decades combined [8] - Chinese enterprises are increasingly engaging in global supply chain construction and are transitioning from labor-intensive industries to advanced technology sectors, aiming to become global multinational corporations [8][9]

1. 称港口业务放缓是好事——连日来，美国多个港口货运量大幅下降，停泊的货船减少。5月8日在被记 者问到这个问题时，美国总统特朗普表示，这意味着美国损失的钱少了。他还认为不做生意的话情况会 更好。所以，放缓是好事，不是坏事。 2. 称"夜不能寐"，全球问题比想象中难解决——《华盛顿邮 报》发文披露，对于无法迅速结束俄乌冲突，特朗普私下里坦承自己感到"沮丧"。他上周在佛罗里达州 向一群顶级捐赠者坦言，结束俄乌冲突的努力正让他的挫败感与日俱增，甚至让他夜不能寐。 3. 遭美 法官阻止推进大规模裁员及重组计划——当地时间5月9日晚，一位美国联邦法官裁定，特朗普政府不得 根据今年2月发布的一项行政命令，继续推进对多个联邦机构的大规模裁员或重大重组计划。 4. 邀功促 成印巴停火——特朗普在社交媒体上表示：在美国的斡旋下，经过一个漫长的夜晚，我很高兴地宣布， 印度和巴基斯坦已经同意立即全面停火。祝贺两国运用常识和大智慧取得这一成果。特朗普还称，将大 幅度增加与印度和巴基斯坦的贸易往来。此外，将与印巴双方合作，探讨在"千年之后"是否能够就克什 米尔问题达成解决方案。 5. 支持俄乌30天无条件停火协议——乌方昨日宣布准备 ...