Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the economic situation in October 2025 and the fourth - quarter economic outlook under the support of macro - policies. It predicts various economic and financial data such as industrial added value, social retail sales, fixed - asset investment, trade, inflation, GDP, and social financing credit [11]. - Although the third - quarter economic growth slowed down, with the implementation of policies like 5000 - billion - yuan new policy - based financial instruments and 5000 - billion - yuan local government debt balance quota, the economy is expected to achieve the annual growth target of about 5% [11][68]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industrial Added Value - It is expected that the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value in October will be 5.5%. In October, the economic prosperity declined, still in the contraction range. The production and new order indexes decreased, and the new export order was at the second - lowest level of the year. The price index showed a "hot - upstream, cold - downstream" pattern, and the economic operation had obvious structural differentiation [13]. - Looking forward, high - tech manufacturing and consumer - related manufacturing are expected to maintain resilience. However, considering the possible weakening of policy effects in the fourth quarter, combined with the weak real estate and insufficient export momentum, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value in the fourth quarter is expected to be 5.3% [1][20]. 2. Social Retail Sales - It is predicted that the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales in October will be 3.0%. The real - estate post - cycle consumption and automobile sales in October may not provide strong support for social retail sales, but the service industry PMI is in the expansion range, and the consumer demand in industries such as transportation and entertainment is strong [26][28]. - In the fourth quarter, due to the weakening of the "trade - in" policy effect, slow income growth, and the high - base effect of the previous year, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales is expected to be about 3.1% [2][28]. 3. Fixed - Asset Investment - It is estimated that the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in October will be - 0.7%. Infrastructure investment may decline in October, real - estate investment may continue to bottom out, while manufacturing investment maintains resilience [33][34][36]. - In the fourth quarter, fixed - asset investment is expected to continue to operate at a low level. Although policies such as new policy - based financial instruments and local government debt balance quota are in place, factors like the end of policy tool investment and the possible continued bottoming of the real - estate market may lead to a cumulative year - on - year growth rate of about - 0.5% [37]. 4. Trade 4.1 Export - It is expected that the year - on - year growth rate of exports in October will be 3.0%. Although the US has imposed additional tariffs on some industries, overall external demand remains resilient. The global manufacturing PMI in October rose to 50.8%. The export volume to the US decreased, while that to ASEAN countries remained strong. The fourth - quarter export year - on - year growth rate is expected to be 2.5% [42][44][48]. 4.2 Import - It is predicted that the year - on - year growth rate of imports in October will be 3.0%. The import sub - item of the manufacturing PMI in October decreased, and the import is expected to decline compared with September. However, with the reduction of trade frictions and the release of domestic demand in the second half of the year, the annual import growth rate may turn slightly positive [50]. 5. Inflation - In terms of CPI, it is expected that the year - on - year growth rate of CPI in October will be flat. In October, the pork price continued to decline, while the agricultural product wholesale price increased significantly. The year - on - year growth rate of CPI in the fourth quarter is expected to be about 0.3% [55]. - Regarding PPI, it is estimated that the year - on - year growth rate of PPI in October will be - 2.2%. The price of upstream raw materials such as coal and steel fluctuated, while non - ferrous metals strengthened. The PPI in October is expected to show a trend of "month - on - month improvement and narrowing year - on - year decline", and the year - on - year growth rate of PPI in the fourth quarter is expected to be about - 2.3% [62]. 6. GDP - It is expected that the year - on - year growth rate of GDP in the fourth quarter will be 4.6%. In October, the manufacturing PMI showed a "weak supply and demand" pattern. The GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter may slow down marginally, but the annual growth target of about 5% can be achieved [68]. 7. Social Financing Credit 7.1 Credit - It is predicted that the new credit in October will be 3300 billion yuan. In October, the bill rate fluctuated downward, indicating weak real - economy financing demand. The new credit of various sectors is estimated as follows: enterprise short - term loans will increase by - 1500 billion yuan, enterprise long - term loans will increase by 1800 billion yuan, household short - term loans will increase by 100 billion yuan, household long - term loans will increase by 900 billion yuan, and bill financing will increase by 2000 billion yuan [74][86]. 7.2 Social Financing - It is expected that the new social financing in October will be 1.0 trillion yuan, and the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock is expected to be 8.6%. The net financing of government bonds is expected to be about 5500 billion yuan, the net financing of enterprise bonds is about 1900 billion yuan, and the non - standard financing is about - 1600 billion yuan. The M2 year - on - year growth rate in October is expected to fall to 8.0% [87][93].

Sino-US Relations - 美国总统特朗普表示与中国国家主席习近平举行了非常成功的会晤，两国之间有着深厚的相互尊重基础 [1] - 特朗普指出，双方在许多方面达成了共识，其他一些至关重要的问题也即将得到解决 [1] - 中国已授权开始大量采购大豆、高粱和其他农产品 [1]

央视：习近平指出，特朗普总统当选以来，我们3次通话，多次互致信函，保持密切联系，共同引领中美关系保持总体稳定。前几天，两国经贸团队在吉隆坡举行了新一轮磋商，就解决各自当前的主要关切达成基本共识，也为我们今天的会晤提供了必要条件。中美两国国情不同，难免有一些分歧，作为世界前两大经济体，时而也会有摩擦，这很正常。面对风浪和挑战，我和特朗普总统作为掌舵人，应当把握好方向、驾驭住大局，让中美关系这艘大船平稳前行。习近平强调，中国的发展振兴同特朗普总统要实现的“让美国再次伟大”是并行不悖的，中美两国完全可以相互成就、共同繁荣。中美两国应当做伙伴、做朋友，这是历史的启示，也是现实的需要。我愿继续同特朗普总统一道，为中美关系打下一个稳固的基础，也为我们两国各自发展营造良好的环境。特朗普总统热心推动地区热点问题解决，中方也一直在以自己的方式就当前各种热点问题劝和促谈。当今世界还有很多难题，中国和美国可以共同展现大国担当，携手多办一些有利于两国和世界的大事、实事、好事。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):央视：当地时间10月30日中午，国家主席习近平在韩国釜山同美国总统特朗普举行会晤，会晤正式开始。 ...

韩联社：特朗普获颁韩国无穷花大勋章（韩国最高级别的荣誉勋章），开创美总统先河。 https://t.co/tcp8I2QI4X外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):韩国总统办公室：总统李在明将与特朗普讨论贸易、投资与朝鲜半岛和平问题。李在明将赠送特朗普黄金皇冠模型，希望特朗普访汉将带来切实的合作成果。 ...

Geopolitical & Economic Relations - South Korean President Lee Jae-myung plans to discuss trade, investment, and peace on the Korean Peninsula with Donald Trump [1] - The meeting aims to foster tangible cooperation outcomes, potentially impacting economic ties and investment flows [1] Symbolic Diplomacy - Lee Jae-myung intends to present Trump with a golden crown model as a gesture of goodwill [1] - The gift symbolizes a desire for strengthened relations and potential collaborations [1]

国务院总理李强会见澳大利亚总理阿尔巴尼，表示积极探讨推进两国自贸协定的审议和升级，中方将继续支持更多有实力的中国企业赴澳投资，希望澳方为中国企业投资经营提供公开、透明和非歧视的环境。阿尔巴尼斯称，澳中关系对经济安全与稳定非常重要，与中国恢复贸易的相关工作已对澳大利亚的工人与企业产生了巨大影响。Anthony Albanese (@AlboMP):Australia’s relationship with China matters.For our economy, our security and the stability of our region.Our work on bringing back trade with China has already made a huge difference for Australian workers and businesses.China is our largest trading partner and that won’t https://t.co/1vU9uboqQY ...

CONCLUDED Stock Market News From Oct. 24, 2025: Dow Tops 47,000 After CPI Inflation Report Last Updated: The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was unchanged at 4%, gold futures slipped 0.9% to $4,109 an ounce, and the dollar was up 0.1% against a weighted basket of its peers. West Texas Intermediate crude prices fell 0.3% to $61.58 a barrel. Updated 11 hours ago Markets Chase Record Highs. Stock Futures Rise Ahead of CPI Inflation Report. By George Glover Stock futures were rising Friday as investors waite ...

Group 1 - The research team, led by the Vice Chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, Xian Hui, conducted a study in Shanghai focusing on strengthening youth exchanges among Shanghai, Hong Kong, and Macau [1][2] - The team visited various enterprises and youth incubation bases, engaging with local youth representatives to understand the depth of interactions and exchanges among the youth from these regions [1] - The research team emphasized the importance of the central government's focus on Hong Kong and Macau youth development since the 18th National Congress, highlighting Xi Jinping's significant remarks as guidance for future work [1] Group 2 - The team pointed out the need to implement practical measures to enhance youth exchanges, including internship and employment programs for Hong Kong and Macau youth, while also encouraging mainland youth to engage with their counterparts in these regions [2] - There is a call for collaboration between Shanghai and Hong Kong to leverage their respective advantages in advancing the construction of three major centers, aiming for deeper cooperation and contributing to China's modernization efforts [2] - Key officials from the National Committee and local government participated in the discussions, indicating a coordinated effort to support youth integration into the national development framework [2]

Trade Relations - The US has confidence in returning to a mutually beneficial position with China [1] - Tariffs at 100% are unsustainable, driven by China's actions [2] - A fair agreement with China is necessary [2] Negotiation Stance - China has been seeking an advantage [2] - The US aims to have a good relationship with China [2]

今日必读🍳特朗普威胁切断对华食用油等贸易🕊️鲍威尔发言巩固10月份降息预期🔪高盛通知员工将有新一轮裁员获取免费中文电子报《彭博财经早茶》，洞悉全球市场动态。Catch up on what's moving China's markets in our free Chinese language newsletter. https://t.co/c3JZyziDsZ ...