Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] 2) Core View of the Report - The precious metals market is in a volatile trend, and it is recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips. As geopolitical tensions ease and tariff policies are gradually implemented, market focus shifts to the US economy and interest - rate cut prospects. If stagflation or recession scenarios become clearer, the upside potential of gold may be reopened [1] 3) Summary by Related Content Economic Data - The US Q2 GDP annualized quarterly rate rebounded by 3% more than expected, and the weekly initial jobless claims remained low. However, the July non - farm payrolls increased by only 73,000, far lower than the expected 110,000, and the previous two months were revised down by 258,000 jobs. Trump claimed the non - farm employment data was manipulated [1] Interest - Rate Policy - The Fed kept interest rates unchanged at the July FOMC meeting. Powell reiterated that future policies will be determined by economic data. After the significant decline in non - farm payrolls, traders fully priced in two interest - rate cuts by the Fed before the end of the year, and the probability of a September rate cut rose to 90%. Fed's Daly said the time for rate cuts is approaching, and the number of rate cuts this year is more likely to be more than two [1][2] Tariff Policy - The EU will suspend trade countermeasures against the US for 6 months, waiting for Trump's action on auto tariffs and exemptions this week. Trump said he will significantly increase tariffs on India due to its purchase of Russian oil, and India responded that the accusation is baseless. The Swiss government plans to continue talks with the US after August 7 and is determined to make a more attractive proposal to the US [2]

Report Investment Rating - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend with a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend with a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] Core View - After the rise of precious metals on Friday, they are oscillating today. Market concerns about the authenticity of US economic data and the economic outlook have intensified. Traders have fully priced in two Fed rate cuts by the end of the year, and the probability of a September rate cut has risen to 90%. With geopolitical tensions easing and tariff policies being implemented, the market focus has shifted to the US economy and rate cut prospects. In the oscillating trend of precious metals, the idea of buying on dips is maintained [1] Summary by Related Content US Economic Data - US July non - farm payrolls increased by 73,000, far lower than the expected 110,000, with the previous two months' data revised down by 258,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate rose 0.1 percentage points to 4.2%. The July ISM manufacturing PMI unexpectedly dropped to 48, the lowest since October 2024 [2] Trump's Statements - Trump claimed that the non - farm employment data was manipulated and ordered the dismissal of the Bureau of Labor Statistics director. He also ordered the deployment of two nuclear submarines in response to Medvedev's remarks, and made various statements about the Fed's rate cut and Powell's position [2] Fed Officials' Views - Williams is open to a September rate cut, focusing on the significant downward revisions of May and June non - farm data. Waller and Bowman mentioned labor market weakness in their responses to opposing the non - rate - cut decision. Harker thought the employment report was "disappointing" but didn't mean a rate cut last week. Bostic still expects one rate cut this year, believing inflation risk is greater than employment risk [2]

Group 1 - The dismissal of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) director, Erica McEntyre, by President Trump due to dissatisfaction with employment data has sparked widespread criticism and raised concerns about the reliability of government statistics [1][3][4] - The July employment report indicated a weak job growth of only 73,000 new jobs, with significant downward revisions to previous months' data, reflecting the impact of Trump's economic policies [3][5] - Economic experts warn that the lack of trust in government data could lead to poor economic decision-making, as accurate data is crucial for policymakers and the public [5][6][7] Group 2 - The high inflation rate, with consumer prices rising by 2.6% and core prices by 2.8% from the second half of last year to the first half of this year, is exacerbated by Trump's tariff policies, which have increased import prices [5][6] - The uncertainty surrounding Trump's trade and immigration policies has led to stagnation in business decisions, including hiring, with only the healthcare sector showing significant job growth [6][7] - The economic divide is widening, with large banks and tech companies reporting substantial profit growth while consumer-facing companies struggle with rising costs, indicating a potential slowdown in economic growth [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup has raised its gold price forecast for the next three months from $3,300 to $3,500 per ounce, citing deteriorating growth and inflation outlooks for the U.S. economy [1] Economic Outlook - The bank anticipates that concerns over U.S. economic growth and tariff-related inflation will continue to escalate in the second half of 2025 [1] - A weakening dollar is expected to contribute to a moderate increase in gold prices, potentially reaching historical highs [1] Employment and Geopolitical Risks - Weak U.S. employment data in Q2 2025 is likely to heighten concerns regarding the credibility of the Federal Reserve and U.S. statistical data [1] - Rising geopolitical risks associated with the Russia-Ukraine conflict are also noted as a factor influencing gold prices [1] Demand for Gold - Since mid-2022, total demand for gold has increased by over one-third [1]

Core Viewpoint - The resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler may lead to a shift in the balance of monetary policy decisions, especially in the context of ongoing pressure from Trump and his allies for interest rate cuts [1][2]. Group 1: Resignation of Adriana Kugler - Adriana Kugler announced her resignation from the Federal Reserve Board, expressing her honor in serving during a critical time for the dual mission of lowering inflation and maintaining a strong labor market [1]. - Kugler's term was set to expire in 2026, and she is expected to return to Georgetown University as a professor [1]. - Her absence from the recent Federal Reserve policy meeting, where rates were held steady for the fifth consecutive time, raised questions about her departure [1][2]. Group 2: Economic Context and Employment Data - The resignation coincided with significant pressure from Trump for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, despite a slight easing of inflation [2]. - Shocking employment data revealed that only 73,000 non-farm jobs were added in July, far below the expected 110,000, with June's figures revised down from over 200,000 to just 14,000 [2][3]. - Atlanta Fed President Bostic expressed concerns that the disappointing employment report could indicate a broader economic weakness, while Cleveland Fed President Mester noted that the labor market remains healthy overall [3]. Group 3: Political Reactions - Following the employment data release, Trump called for the dismissal of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) director, claiming the data was manipulated for political purposes [3]. - Trump emphasized the need for accurate and fair reporting of important economic data, criticizing the significant downward revisions in employment figures [3].

Summary of Morgan Stanley US Economics Outlook Update Industry Overview - **Industry**: US Economy - **Focus**: Economic outlook for 2025-2026, including growth, inflation, fiscal policy, trade, and immigration impacts Core Points and Arguments 1. **Economic Growth Expectations**: - Slow growth projected with real GDP growth of 0.8% in 2025 and 1.1% in 2026 [6][7][18] - Baseline scenario indicates firm inflation with inflation peaking in Q3 2025 [6][7] 2. **Inflation and Federal Reserve Policy**: - Inflation expected to remain elevated, with core PCE inflation at 3.0% in 2025 and 2.6% in 2026 [6][18] - Federal Reserve likely to hold rates steady in 2025, with cuts starting in March 2026 [6][11] 3. **Fiscal Policy Impact**: - The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) is anticipated to widen the deficit in 2026 but may provide a growth impulse of 0.4 percentage points to GDP [3][18] - Fiscal multipliers from the OBBBA are higher than previously expected, potentially boosting demand [3][13] 4. **Trade and Tariff Effects**: - Effective tariff rates projected to rise to approximately 16-17% under the baseline scenario, with potential increases to 23% in a mild recession scenario [9][16] - Recent trade announcements have increased downside risks to the economic outlook, with a 40% probability of a downside scenario [6][8][18] 5. **Immigration Policy**: - Immigration restrictions are expected to slow potential growth to 1.5%, with net immigration dropping significantly from 2.9 million in 2024 to 300,000 in 2025 [9][18] - Expanded legal immigration could help maintain potential growth at 2.0% in alternative scenarios [3][18] 6. **Alternate Scenarios**: - **Demand Upside**: Stronger fiscal multipliers could lead to higher growth and prolonged elevated inflation, with no Fed cuts in 2025 or 2026 [13][18] - **Supply Upside**: De-escalation in trade and immigration policies could result in faster growth and less aggressive Fed cuts [14][18] - **Mild Recession**: A trade shock could lead to a GDP decline of 1.2% peak-to-trough, with a significant rise in effective tariff rates [16][18] Other Important Content 1. **Unemployment Rate Projections**: - Unemployment rate expected to finish 2025 at 4.2% and 2026 at 3.8% under the baseline scenario [6][18] 2. **Consumer Confidence and Spending**: - Consumer confidence is projected to rebound but remains limited due to high inflation and uncertainty [18] - Consumer spending growth is expected to slow to 1.2% in 2025 before picking up to 1.6% in 2026 [18] 3. **Investment Trends**: - Nonresidential fixed investment is expected to rise by 4.6% in 2025 and 4.7% in 2026, driven by fiscal policy and improved sentiment [18] 4. **Credit Conditions**: - Credit conditions are expected to tighten further due to high policy rates and elevated uncertainty, with a potential loosening in 2026 [18] 5. **Productivity Growth**: - Productivity growth is anticipated to bounce back in 2026 after slowing in 2025 [18] This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections regarding the US economic outlook as presented in the Morgan Stanley report, highlighting the interplay between fiscal policy, trade dynamics, and macroeconomic indicators.

Core Viewpoint - Trade is identified as the primary driver of the U.S. economic outlook according to Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller [1] Group 1 - The emphasis on trade highlights its significant role in shaping economic growth and stability in the U.S. [1] - The statement suggests that fluctuations in trade policies and international relations could have substantial impacts on the U.S. economy [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voting member and San Francisco Federal Reserve President Daly will deliver a speech regarding the outlook for the U.S. economy in ten minutes [1]

Group 1 - Key Point 1: Focus on key financial events and economic data on July 10, including Germany's June CPI final value at 14:00 [1] - Key Point 2: Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending July 5 will be reported at 20:30 [1] - Key Point 3: Federal Reserve's Musalem will speak on economic and monetary policy at 21:00 [1] Group 2 - Key Point 1: EIA natural gas inventory data for the week ending July 4 will be released at 22:30 [1] - Key Point 2: Federal Reserve Governor Waller will participate in a panel discussion at 01:15 the next day [1] - Key Point 3: Federal Reserve's Daly will discuss the U.S. economic outlook at 02:30 the next day [1]

Key Points - The article highlights important financial data and events to be monitored on July 10, 2025, including U.S. Treasury auction results and Federal Reserve announcements [1] Group 1: U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. will auction 10-year Treasury bonds with results expected to include the bid-to-cover ratio and the awarded yield [1] - Initial jobless claims for the week ending July 5 will be reported, providing insights into the labor market [1] - The Federal Reserve will release the minutes from its monetary policy meeting, which may influence market expectations [1] Group 2: International Economic Data - Germany's Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June will be finalized, which is crucial for understanding inflation trends in the Eurozone [1] Group 3: Federal Reserve Commentary - Federal Reserve officials, including Musalem and Waller, will provide commentary on economic conditions and monetary policy outlook, which could impact investor sentiment [1][1]