市场还需要几周时间才能真正消化这场冲突的影响 高盛CEO所罗门表示，金融市场对中东战争的反应出人意料地平静 。这一局面令他感到意外，但他同时警告，市场真正消化这场冲突的影响还需数周时间。 据媒体报道，所罗门周三在悉尼出席澳大利亚金融评论商业峰会时表示， 目前仍有太多未知因素，投资者正在评估这场冲突是否会演变为持久战，以及是否将 开始冲击消费。美国就确保霍尔木兹海峡航运安全所作的承诺，在一定程度上稳定了市场情绪。 与此同时，这场伊朗战争的冲击波正在持续扩散。以色列对德黑兰发动新一轮空袭，伊朗则向卡塔尔、巴林和阿曼发射导弹，卡塔尔方面表示打击目标并不局 限于军事设施。 在通胀预期方面，油价上涨引发市场对通胀卷土重来的担忧，交易员正在下调对美联储降息的预期。 据新华社援引美国有线电视新闻网3日报道，自美国和以色列对伊朗发动军事行动以来，负责美伊谈判的美国总统特使威特科夫就再未同伊方进行过外交接 触。 所罗门表示，霍尔木兹海峡航运保障方面的美国背书，是目前支撑市场情绪的关键因素之一，但这一局面能否持续，仍有待未来数周的形势发展来检验。 尽管地缘风险上升，Solomon对美国经济的中期前景依然持乐观态度。他指出，宽松货 ...

Core Insights - The core PCE price index in the U.S. for December 2025 increased from 2.8% to 3.0% year-on-year, and the month-on-month change rose from 0.2% to 0.4% [2] - The overall PCE price index for December 2025 also saw a rise from 2.8% to 2.9% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase from 0.2% to 0.4% [2] - The rebound in PCE price data supports the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate cuts in early 2026, reinforcing market expectations that rates will remain unchanged until at least May 2026 [2] - The U.S. GDP annualized growth rate for Q4 2025 significantly dropped from 4.4% to 1.4%, falling short of the expected 3.0%, raising concerns about the economic outlook [2] - The dual risks of economic downturn and potential inflation rebound complicate the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions [2] - A potential military strike by President Trump against Iran could lead to a spike in international oil prices, further exacerbating inflation in the U.S. economy [2] Market Sentiment - The uncertainty surrounding the U.S. economic outlook places the Federal Reserve in a precarious position, prompting investors to approach the U.S. capital markets with caution [3] - The anticipated weakening of the dollar may accelerate the outflow of international capital from U.S. markets [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent depreciation of the US dollar against various currencies, particularly the Japanese yen, driven by market concerns over the US economic outlook and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][4][5]. Group 1: Currency Movements - On February 11, the US dollar depreciated significantly against the Japanese yen, reaching a low of 152.5 to 152.9 yen per dollar, marking the largest depreciation in two weeks [2]. - The dollar also fell to a two-week low against the euro and Swiss franc, with the dollar index dropping to the 96 range, indicating a broader decline in the dollar's value [4]. - Following the release of better-than-expected US employment statistics on February 11, the dollar briefly rebounded to 154.5 to 154.9 yen per dollar, although trading volumes were low due to a holiday in Japan [4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - The US Commerce Department reported that retail sales for December 2025 were flat, below the expected growth of 0.4%, contributing to concerns about a slowing US economy and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5]. - Market sentiment remains cautious, with expectations that the Federal Reserve may initiate rate cuts around June, and some analysts suggesting a possibility of cuts as early as spring [7]. - The market's confidence in US dollar assets is waning, partly due to reports that the Chinese government has advised its banks to limit their holdings of US Treasury bonds, indicating a global trend of reducing reliance on dollar assets [7]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical risks stemming from actions and statements by US President Trump are also contributing to the dollar's weakness, with analysts noting a reflexive market response to his behavior [8]. - There is a prevailing belief that the yen may continue to depreciate under the new Japanese government led by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, with expectations of ongoing fluctuations in the exchange rate between 159 yen and 152 yen per dollar [8]. - Prime Minister Kishida is expected to visit the US on March 19 for discussions with Trump, which may influence future currency movements and trade negotiations [8].

美国联邦储备委员会在1月货币政策会议上决定维持联邦基金利率目标区间不变，符合市场普遍预期。会议发布的利率点阵图显示，联邦公开市场委员会成 员对2026年利率路径的判断存在明显分歧：7位官员认为年内不应降息，8位支持至少降息两次，中值预测显示2026年或仅降息一次。 这一政策指引与期货市场预期存在差异。根据利率互换合约定价，交易员仍押注2026年将出现两次降息。这种分歧反映出市场对美国经济前景及通胀走势的 判断尚未形成共识。 人事层面，白宫已提名前美联储理事凯文·沃什担任下一任美联储主席，接替将于5月任期届满的鲍威尔。沃什曾在2006年至2011年间担任美联储理事，其政 策立场被市场解读为相对审慎。这一提名被视为在保持央行独立性与回应白宫政策诉求之间寻求平衡。 经济数据方面，原定于2月6日发布的1月非农就业报告因联邦政府部分停摆而推迟至2月11日公布。市场一致预期新增非农就业人口约7万人，失业率维持在 4.4%附近。值得注意的是，彭博经济研究警告称，受统计方法调整等因素影响，实际数据可能意外疲软至1.5万人左右。 若就业数据显著偏离预期，可能强化市场对美联储政策转向时点的重新评估。当前环境下，劳动力市场状况、核 ...

公告显示，联邦公开市场委员会12名成员中，支持当日货币政策会议决定的有10人，投反对票的是美联 储理事斯蒂芬·米兰和克里斯托弗·沃勒，二人主张降息25个基点。 鲍威尔说，当前联邦基金利率大体上为"中性"。去年12月美国核心通胀率很可能达到3%，预计关税影 响将在今年年中达到峰值。若物价如此前预期在今年触顶并开始回落，意味着美联储有可能放松货币政 策。若劳动力市场未能企稳，美联储也会降息。 鲍威尔回避了有关新任美联储主席提名后过渡期、近期美元汇率波动和他自己遭受刑事调查等话题的提 问。不过，他表示，如果央行失去独立性，将很难恢复。他本人和同事均强烈致力于维护美联储独立 性。 新华社纽约1月28日电（记者刘亚南）美国联邦储备委员会28日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将 联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.5%至3.75%之间不变，符合市场预期。美联储主席鲍威尔会后回避有关 自己未来去向的提问，但建议继任者不要卷入政治纷争。 美联储决策机构联邦公开市场委员会在会后发表声明说，现有指标显示美国经济活动在"稳健扩张"，但 经济前景的不确定性仍在高位。就业增长持续低迷，失业率有一些企稳迹象，通胀仍处较高水平。 鲍威尔在当日下 ...

欧洲信用债的违约保护成本稳定，眼下市场正等待将于格林威治时间1900公布的美联储利率决议。 ActivTrades的Frank Sohlleder在一份报告中称，市场预计美联储将维持利率不变，但将关注未来几个月 利率前景的任何指引。美国经济前景更加乐观可能预示着美联储未来几个月将暂停降息，不过由于劳动 力市场表现疲软，仍有可能进一步降息。标普全球市场财智的数据显示，追踪欧元高收益信用违约掉期 的iTraxx Europe Crossover指数持平于241个基点。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs and Citigroup have contrasting views on the U.S. economic outlook for 2026, with Goldman being more optimistic, predicting a growth rate of 2.6%, while Citigroup forecasts a lower rate of 2.1% [1][2] - Goldman Sachs expects strong GDP growth in the first half of next year, attributing this to the diminishing effects of tariffs and an additional $100 billion in tax refunds from fiscal plans, alongside a loose monetary environment from the Federal Reserve [1] - Citigroup is skeptical about the scale of additional tax refunds, estimating it to be between $30 billion and $50 billion, and believes that the supportive effects of a loose monetary environment are limited [2] Group 2 - Both banks anticipate further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, with Goldman predicting a 50 basis point cut and Citigroup expecting a 75 basis point cut, highlighting a general dovish outlook [3] - Citigroup emphasizes that the biggest risk to their economic outlook is a rise in unemployment rates, noting that historically, prolonged increases in unemployment have led to significant economic downturns [3] - Goldman Sachs identifies the labor market's weaknesses as a major vulnerability, warning that persistent job market issues could trigger serious recession concerns [3]

Core Insights - The U.S. November CPI year-on-year rate is 2.7%, lower than the expected 3.1% [2] - The U.S. November core CPI year-on-year rate is 2.6%, also below the expected 3% [2] - These lower-than-expected CPI figures indicate that inflationary pressures in the U.S. economy are not as significant as anticipated, suggesting a continued downward trend in inflation [2] - The data supports the possibility of the Federal Reserve lowering the federal funds rate in January [2] Economic Indicators - The number of initial jobless claims for the week ending December 13 is 224,000, an improvement from the previous value of 237,000 [2] - The likelihood of the Federal Reserve continuing to lower interest rates in January is increasing, although future economic data, particularly from the labor market, will be crucial [2] - The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index has dropped significantly from -1.7 to -10.2, indicating a downturn in the U.S. manufacturing sector [2] Consumer Sentiment - Despite the downturn in manufacturing, the overall economic outlook depends heavily on consumer spending trends [2] - Recent data shows that the U.S. consumer confidence index is not only low but also trending downward, introducing significant uncertainty into the economic outlook [2]

Core Viewpoint - The current oil price is expected to decrease by 155 yuan/ton, translating to a reduction of 0.12-0.14 yuan per liter, indicating a significant drop in oil prices [1] Group 1: Oil Price Trends - The anticipated oil price drop has increased by 40 yuan/ton compared to yesterday, exceeding the downward threshold [1] - International oil prices have experienced four consecutive declines, with the potential for the current round of price drops to reach 200 yuan/ton if the trend continues [3] - Recent market performance shows that U.S. crude oil fell by 2.57% to $55.07 per barrel, while Brent crude also dropped by 2.57% to $58.82 per barrel [3] Group 2: Inventory and Economic Indicators - The latest U.S. API crude oil inventory report indicated a decrease of 9.322 million barrels, significantly higher than the expected reduction of 2.197 million barrels [3] - Gasoline inventories increased by 483.5 thousand barrels, surpassing the expected increase of 210 thousand barrels, highlighting weak demand signals [3] - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for November slightly exceeded market expectations, while the unemployment rate rose to the highest level since September 2021, raising concerns about the U.S. economic outlook [3] Group 3: Regional Fuel Prices - The upcoming oil price adjustment is scheduled for December 22 at 24:00, with specific regional prices for various fuel types provided [4][5][6]

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced a slight decline, with COMEX gold futures down 0.07% to $4,332.2 per ounce, and related ETFs also showing losses [1] - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 64,000 in November, surpassing market expectations of around 50,000, although October's data was significantly revised down to a decrease of 105,000 [1] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, the highest level since September 2021, indicating a cooling labor market [1] Group 2 - The outlook for the U.S. economy remains uncertain, with signs of a cooling labor market, but resilient consumer spending and slowing wage growth provide the Federal Reserve with more observation space [2] - Institutions generally expect that the Federal Reserve's easing measures will remain moderate until 2026, unless there is a sustained rise in unemployment or a significant contraction in consumer spending [2] - In the context of shifting interest rate expectations towards easing and a potentially weaker dollar, the long-term trend for gold remains supported, although caution is advised regarding future data revisions and unexpected geopolitical events [2]