在本周二（9月23日）的一次公开讲话中，美联储主席鲍威尔指出，当前美国股市的估值已经相当高。 在鲍威尔发表上述观点后，美国股市三大股指出现下跌。尽管美联储在刚刚结束的9月议息会议上再次 降息25个基点，然而美联储主席鲍威尔的上述讲话却给美国股市浇了一盆冷水。 另外，鲍威尔再次阐述了他对于货币政策的谨慎态度。这将市场刚刚掀起的热情又压了回去。正如笔者 在先前文章中阐述的，鲍威尔在当前美国经济一方面就业市场疲软，另一方面通货膨胀存在反弹的风险 的背景下很难做出大幅而快速降息的决定。这使得市场处于一种焦灼状态，从而进一步推升了美国经济 的不确定性。 摩根大通认为，美国经济在今年后半年会进一步下行。如果美联储在放松货币政策方面继续犹豫不决， 这势必会加大美国经济面临的负面压力。 由此，笔者认为，美国经济的前景堪忧，一场风暴也许就在前面。 JerryZang 免责声明：本文内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。一切有关市 场的准确信息，请以相关官方公告为准。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 ...

作者：招商银行研究院 纽约分行 美东时间9月17日，美联储将基准利率下调25bp至4.00-4.25%的目标区间，准备金利率（IORB）降至4.15%。 缩表进程保持不变，保持国债赎回上限$50亿和房屋抵押债券（MBS）赎回上限$350亿。 市场最初反应偏鸽，对年内降息的定价从42bp升至45bp，但这一影响很快消退。鲍威尔对过度鸽派倾向进行了 否定，收盘时市场交易由鸽转鹰。美国国债收益率上涨，美元小幅走强，美股三大指数基本横盘，黄金下跌， 境外美元流动性宽松。 总体而言，本次议息会议呈现三点特征：一是降息基调为预防式降息；二是美国未来强经济和弱就业并存；三 是美联储官员内部分歧加大。 预计美联储年内将再降息2次（50bp），建议继续持有美国中短债和黄金，美元 趋于震荡，美股延续上行。 | | | 市场预测 | 实际 | 前值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 联邦基金利率上限 | 9月17日 | 4.25% | 4.25% | 4.50% | | 联邦基金利率下限 | 9月17日 | 4.00% | 4.00% | 4.25% | | 储备金余额利率 | 9 月 18 ...

9月5日公布的数据显示，美国8月非农就业人口从前值7.9万人大幅下降至2.2万人。美国8月非农就业数据从已经 处于历史低位的前值大幅下挫，这反映出美国就业市场的疲软已经明显显现。在此前一日公布的美国最新的 ADP就业数据同样表明了这种疲软。 免责声明：本文内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。一切有关市场的准 确信息，请以相关官方公告为准。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 而特朗普总统的关税政策等一系列的经济政策和美国外部的国际政治和经济形势也会给美国经济带来诸多不确 定性，甚至会引发"黑天鹅事件"。 由此可见，美国经济的前景并非光明，而是山雨欲来风满楼。 同时公布的美国8月失业率也从前值4.2%上升至4.3%。有机构认为，美国的失业率未来还会进一步走高。这意味 着美国就业市场的疲软会进一步恶化。 JerryZang 正如美联储主席鲍威尔在前不久召开的杰克逊霍尔央行年会上所指出的，美国的就业市场正在恶化，这使得美 联储在9月议息会议上重启降息得到了一定的支撑。 目前，市场对于美联储9月降息并没有什么争论，市场所热议的是美联储未来会在多快，以多大力度降息。从美 联储主席鲍威尔一系列谨慎的谈话 ...

笔者认为，除非美国就业市场出现严重恶化的局面，否则美联储未来对于降息措施仍然会秉持极其谨慎 的态度，这会使美国经济面临更大的负面压力，也会给美国经济带来更大的不确定性。 如果我们再考虑到美国经济可能面临的"黑天鹅事件"，那么美国经济的前景并非光明，而是堪忧。 JerryZang 免责声明：本文内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。一切有关市 场的准确信息，请以相关官方公告为准。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 9月4日公布的数据显示，美国8月ADP就业人数从前值10.6万人大幅下挫至5.4万人。这使得素有"小非 农"之称的ADP就业数据在本已处于历史低位的基础上进一步大幅下滑，表明美国就业市场的疲软日益 明显。 市场普遍认为，在近期就业数据连续显示疲软迹象的情况下，美联储在9月重启降息几乎是板上钉钉的 事情。 不过，在美联储未来降息进程的速度上，美联储的官员们仍然存在很大的分歧。这使得市场对于美联储 未来的货币政策走向并不乐观，不确定性仍然很强。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a significant increase in the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for July, with the annual rate rising from 2.4% to 3.3% and the monthly rate increasing from 0.0% to 0.9%. The core PPI also saw a substantial rise from 2.6% to 3.7% annually and from 0.0% to 0.9% monthly [2] - The increase in PPI and core PPI may indicate a potential rebound in future Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, suggesting inflationary pressures could persist [2] - Following the PPI data release, market expectations for the Federal Reserve to resume interest rate cuts in September have diminished, introducing uncertainty into future monetary policy directions [2] Group 2 - The article suggests that despite a seemingly stable economic environment under President Trump's tariff and fiscal policies, significant uncertainties remain in international politics and trade relations, which could lead to unexpected events [3] - The outlook for the U.S. economy is portrayed as less optimistic than some economic data might suggest, indicating potential challenges ahead [3]

Group 1 - The current trading price of silver is $38.51 per ounce, with a daily opening at $37.88 and a high of $38.54 [1][2] - The U.S. dollar index is trading around 97.71, indicating a stable currency environment [1] - The market is awaiting speeches from Federal Reserve officials regarding monetary policy and the U.S. economic outlook [1] Group 2 - President Trump has intensified his criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, suggesting that interest rates should be lowered significantly [3] - Trump claims that the renovation costs of the Federal Reserve building have escalated from an estimated $50 million to $3 billion, which he deems unacceptable [3] - The ongoing tension between Trump and Powell highlights the political pressures on the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate decisions [3] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that a sustained rise in silver prices above the 200-hour simple moving average could trigger bullish momentum, potentially pushing prices towards $38.70 and $39.00 [4] - Conversely, if silver prices fall below $38.00, it may confirm a bearish trend, with potential declines towards $37.00 and further to $36.20 [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] 2) Core View of the Report - The precious metals market is in a volatile trend, and it is recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips. As geopolitical tensions ease and tariff policies are gradually implemented, market focus shifts to the US economy and interest - rate cut prospects. If stagflation or recession scenarios become clearer, the upside potential of gold may be reopened [1] 3) Summary by Related Content Economic Data - The US Q2 GDP annualized quarterly rate rebounded by 3% more than expected, and the weekly initial jobless claims remained low. However, the July non - farm payrolls increased by only 73,000, far lower than the expected 110,000, and the previous two months were revised down by 258,000 jobs. Trump claimed the non - farm employment data was manipulated [1] Interest - Rate Policy - The Fed kept interest rates unchanged at the July FOMC meeting. Powell reiterated that future policies will be determined by economic data. After the significant decline in non - farm payrolls, traders fully priced in two interest - rate cuts by the Fed before the end of the year, and the probability of a September rate cut rose to 90%. Fed's Daly said the time for rate cuts is approaching, and the number of rate cuts this year is more likely to be more than two [1][2] Tariff Policy - The EU will suspend trade countermeasures against the US for 6 months, waiting for Trump's action on auto tariffs and exemptions this week. Trump said he will significantly increase tariffs on India due to its purchase of Russian oil, and India responded that the accusation is baseless. The Swiss government plans to continue talks with the US after August 7 and is determined to make a more attractive proposal to the US [2]

Report Investment Rating - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend with a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend with a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] Core View - After the rise of precious metals on Friday, they are oscillating today. Market concerns about the authenticity of US economic data and the economic outlook have intensified. Traders have fully priced in two Fed rate cuts by the end of the year, and the probability of a September rate cut has risen to 90%. With geopolitical tensions easing and tariff policies being implemented, the market focus has shifted to the US economy and rate cut prospects. In the oscillating trend of precious metals, the idea of buying on dips is maintained [1] Summary by Related Content US Economic Data - US July non - farm payrolls increased by 73,000, far lower than the expected 110,000, with the previous two months' data revised down by 258,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate rose 0.1 percentage points to 4.2%. The July ISM manufacturing PMI unexpectedly dropped to 48, the lowest since October 2024 [2] Trump's Statements - Trump claimed that the non - farm employment data was manipulated and ordered the dismissal of the Bureau of Labor Statistics director. He also ordered the deployment of two nuclear submarines in response to Medvedev's remarks, and made various statements about the Fed's rate cut and Powell's position [2] Fed Officials' Views - Williams is open to a September rate cut, focusing on the significant downward revisions of May and June non - farm data. Waller and Bowman mentioned labor market weakness in their responses to opposing the non - rate - cut decision. Harker thought the employment report was "disappointing" but didn't mean a rate cut last week. Bostic still expects one rate cut this year, believing inflation risk is greater than employment risk [2]

Group 1 - The dismissal of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) director, Erica McEntyre, by President Trump due to dissatisfaction with employment data has sparked widespread criticism and raised concerns about the reliability of government statistics [1][3][4] - The July employment report indicated a weak job growth of only 73,000 new jobs, with significant downward revisions to previous months' data, reflecting the impact of Trump's economic policies [3][5] - Economic experts warn that the lack of trust in government data could lead to poor economic decision-making, as accurate data is crucial for policymakers and the public [5][6][7] Group 2 - The high inflation rate, with consumer prices rising by 2.6% and core prices by 2.8% from the second half of last year to the first half of this year, is exacerbated by Trump's tariff policies, which have increased import prices [5][6] - The uncertainty surrounding Trump's trade and immigration policies has led to stagnation in business decisions, including hiring, with only the healthcare sector showing significant job growth [6][7] - The economic divide is widening, with large banks and tech companies reporting substantial profit growth while consumer-facing companies struggle with rising costs, indicating a potential slowdown in economic growth [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup has raised its gold price forecast for the next three months from $3,300 to $3,500 per ounce, citing deteriorating growth and inflation outlooks for the U.S. economy [1] Economic Outlook - The bank anticipates that concerns over U.S. economic growth and tariff-related inflation will continue to escalate in the second half of 2025 [1] - A weakening dollar is expected to contribute to a moderate increase in gold prices, potentially reaching historical highs [1] Employment and Geopolitical Risks - Weak U.S. employment data in Q2 2025 is likely to heighten concerns regarding the credibility of the Federal Reserve and U.S. statistical data [1] - Rising geopolitical risks associated with the Russia-Ukraine conflict are also noted as a factor influencing gold prices [1] Demand for Gold - Since mid-2022, total demand for gold has increased by over one-third [1]