转自：新华财经 调查报告称，"受访者认为'关税影响'是美国经济前景最大的下行风险。"更严格的移民执法也被视为抑 制经济增长的因素，而生产力的提高则被认为是推动经济增长高于预期的最可能因素。 此外，预计今年底通胀为2.9%，略低于10月调查预测的3%，明年料仅小幅降至2.6%，其中关税预计贡 献0.25至0.75个百分点。 按历史标准衡量，就业增长预计仍将较为温和，每月新增约6.4万个就业岗位，远低于近期的平均水 平。失业率预计将在2026年初升至4.5%，并全年维持该水平。由于通胀居高不下且失业率仅略有上 升，美联储预计将在12月降息25个基点，但明年料仅再降息50个基点，接近货币政策的大致中性利率水 平。 编辑：王姝睿 新华财经北京11月24日电 全美商业经济协会（NABE）在年度预测调查中表示，美国经济增速明年将略 加快，但就业增长仍将疲弱，美联储将放缓进一步降息的步伐。这项调查涵盖42位专业预测人士，结果 显示，经济增长预测中值为2%，高于10月调查的1.8%。 个人支出和企业投资的增加预计将推动经济增长走高，但专业预测人士几乎一致认为，特朗普政府的新 进口关税给增长率带来至少0.25个百分点的拖累。 ...

在本周多项重要经济指标发布前，工业金属市场整体呈现避险情绪。其中，周四将公布的美国9月非农就业报告备受关注，该数据预计将对美联储接下来的 货币政策走向产生重要影响。此前，多位美联储官员已明确表示，目前不宜进一步降低利率水平，这一立场对大宗商品的需求前景造成压力。 回顾近期走势，铝价在11月初曾一度飙升至三年高位。分析师普遍认为，当时中国需求的强劲表现以及全球供应面持续承压是推动价格上涨的主要因素。然 而，随着对美国经济前景和货币政策走向的担忧再度升温，铝价随同其他金属品类一同回调。 市场观察人士指出，在关键经济数据明朗化和美联储政策信号明确之前，工业金属市场可能继续维持震荡格局。投资者正密切关注即将发布的经济指标，以 寻找未来货币政策走向的更多线索。 工业金属市场近日承压下行，铝价回落至近四周低点，铜价同样走低。市场分析显示，这一走势主要源于投资者对美联储降息预期的持续减弱，同时市场也 在等待因政府停摆而延迟发布的美国关键经济数据。 ...

摘要11月12日，沪金主力暂报945.56元/克，涨幅达0.14%，今日沪金主力开盘价949.84元/克，截至目前 最高952.08元/克，最低940.78元/克。 【黄金期货行情表现】 11月12日，沪金主力暂报945.56元/克，涨幅达0.14%，今日沪金主力开盘价949.84元/克，截至目前最高 952.08元/克，最低940.78元/克。 【宏观消息】 美参议院投票通过临时拨款法案，众议院据悉将于北京时间周四凌晨5点开始对该法案投票。 据美国自动数据处理公司ADP统计，截至10月25日的四周内，美国私营部门平均每周减少11250个工作 岗位；高盛估计美国10月非农就业岗位减少约5万个，将为2020年以来最大降幅。 美联储12月降息25个基点的概率为67.6%，维持利率不变的概率为32.4%。美联储到明年1月累计降息25 个基点的概率为53.2%，维持利率不变的概率为19.2%，累计降息50个基点的概率为27.7%。 【机构观点】 美国众议院即将就临时法案进行投票，美国政府停摆接近尾声，市场的流动性预期有所好转，叠加ADP 就业数据疲软，美元继续走弱，对金银形成支撑。在经历了三周的盘整后，贵金属对于此前 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices rebounded above $4,000, reflecting investor assessment of the latest U.S. labor data's impact on Federal Reserve policy outlook [1] Group 1: Market Performance - New York gold futures rose by 0.7% to $4,021.40 per ounce, while the U.S. dollar index fell by 0.2% to 99.97 [1] - Gold has increased by 52% year-to-date, supported by central bank purchases, ETF inflows, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Private sector hiring rebound alleviated concerns about a weakening U.S. labor market [1] - Service sector continues to grow, serving as a key driver of the U.S. economy [1] Group 3: Market Uncertainty - Increased uncertainty for traders regarding economic outlook and potential further easing paths, especially with the Federal Reserve's last meeting in 2025 approaching and key data delayed due to government shutdown [1]

Core Insights - The ADP employment number for October in the U.S. increased from a previous value of -29,000 to 42,000, surpassing the expected value of 28,000, although it remains at a historical low [2] - The significant rise in employment numbers amid the government shutdown, which has led to missing non-farm payroll data, increases the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will pause interest rate cuts in December [2] - The current uncertainties facing the U.S. economy are increasing rather than decreasing, making the economic outlook more ambiguous and significantly raising risks [2] Economic Policy Implications - The Federal Reserve is perceived to be lagging behind economic trends, often reacting to economic data rather than proactively shaping monetary policy, which amplifies economic volatility [2] - The potential for "black swan" events poses additional negative shocks to the U.S. economy, suggesting a less optimistic outlook [2] Market Sentiment - The quote from Warren Buffett highlights the idea that the true vulnerabilities in the economy may only become apparent when economic conditions worsen, raising questions about who may be unprepared for such challenges [2]

Core Insights - The majority of American consumers are pessimistic about the economic outlook, with 57% expecting a downturn in the coming year, marking the most negative sentiment since Deloitte began tracking this data in 1997 [2] - 77% of respondents anticipate an increase in holiday goods prices, up from 69% last year, coinciding with the first holiday season following recent tariff hikes on imports [2] - Consumers plan to spend an average of $1,595 during the holiday season, a 10% decrease from last year's planned spending of $1,778 [2] Consumer Spending Trends - The trend of expected spending decline spans all income groups and nearly all age demographics, with Gen Z (ages 18-28) planning to spend 34% less than last year, while Millennials (ages 29-44) expect a 13% decrease [3] - In contrast, Generation X plans to increase spending by 3%, and Baby Boomers anticipate a 6% decrease [4] - Economic uncertainty and inflation pressures, particularly regarding housing and daily necessities, are contributing to tighter budgets among younger consumers [5] Retail and Holiday Predictions - Retailers and brands face warnings as households expect to reduce spending during the critical sales period, with overall holiday spending projected to grow by only 4%, below the 10-year average of 5.2% [5] - Online holiday spending is expected to increase by 5.3%, slower than last year's 8.7% growth [5] - Deloitte's findings indicate a significant rise in consumers seeking discounts, with 70% of respondents engaging in multiple cost-saving behaviors [7] Budgeting and Gift Spending - Consumers plan to cut non-gift holiday expenditures by an average of 22%, while gift spending remains relatively stable, with an average of eight gifts planned compared to nine last year [7]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell discussed the U.S. economic outlook and monetary policy, emphasizing the Fed's ongoing efforts to maintain economic and financial stability while adapting policies based on economic conditions rather than preset paths [1][3]. Economic Outlook - Current data indicates that the employment and inflation outlook has not changed significantly since September, despite some delays in government data due to the shutdown [3][4]. - Economic activity growth may be more robust than previously expected, with the unemployment rate remaining low as of August, although non-farm employment growth has slowed [3][4]. - The labor market shows signs of weakness, with rising risks to employment, as evidenced by low levels of layoffs and hiring, alongside declining perceptions of job opportunities among residents and businesses [3][4]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation rate was 2.9% year-on-year as of August, slightly up from earlier in the year, primarily due to rising core goods prices [4]. - Short-term inflation expectations have increased this year, while most long-term inflation expectations remain aligned with the Fed's 2% target [4]. - The rising risks in the labor market have influenced the Fed's assessment of risk balance, leading to a more neutral policy stance being deemed appropriate [4]. Federal Reserve Operations - Powell indicated that the balance sheet reduction may conclude in the coming months, with the Fed aiming to ensure sufficient liquidity in the financial system to manage short-term interest rates and market volatility [1][3]. - The tightening liquidity conditions and rising repo rates have led to temporary liquidity pressures, highlighting the need for a flexible approach to the balance sheet based on experiences since 2020 [1][3].

在本周二（9月23日）的一次公开讲话中，美联储主席鲍威尔指出，当前美国股市的估值已经相当高。 在鲍威尔发表上述观点后，美国股市三大股指出现下跌。尽管美联储在刚刚结束的9月议息会议上再次 降息25个基点，然而美联储主席鲍威尔的上述讲话却给美国股市浇了一盆冷水。 另外，鲍威尔再次阐述了他对于货币政策的谨慎态度。这将市场刚刚掀起的热情又压了回去。正如笔者 在先前文章中阐述的，鲍威尔在当前美国经济一方面就业市场疲软，另一方面通货膨胀存在反弹的风险 的背景下很难做出大幅而快速降息的决定。这使得市场处于一种焦灼状态，从而进一步推升了美国经济 的不确定性。 摩根大通认为，美国经济在今年后半年会进一步下行。如果美联储在放松货币政策方面继续犹豫不决， 这势必会加大美国经济面临的负面压力。 由此，笔者认为，美国经济的前景堪忧，一场风暴也许就在前面。 JerryZang 免责声明：本文内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。一切有关市 场的准确信息，请以相关官方公告为准。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points to a target range of 4.00-4.25% reflects a preventive approach to manage risks in the economy, highlighting concerns over the labor market while maintaining a cautious stance on future economic conditions [1][4]. Economic Analysis - The current economic landscape shows a coexistence of strong economic growth and weak employment, with GDP growth forecasted to improve slightly by 0.2 percentage points compared to previous predictions, while unemployment rates are expected to rise [4]. - Powell described a "peculiar balance" in the labor market, where reduced labor supply due to immigration policies contrasts with weakened demand due to economic slowdown, contributing to the decision for the rate cut [5]. Political Influence - Political factors are increasingly impacting the Federal Reserve's independence, as evidenced by attempts from the Trump administration to influence Fed appointments, which poses a potential threat to its credibility and policy effectiveness [6]. Interest Rate Policy - There is significant divergence among Federal Reserve officials regarding future rate cuts, with the median forecast for rate cuts increasing from two to three times this year, indicating a growing split in opinions on monetary policy direction [7]. - The dot plot indicates a downward adjustment in future rate projections for 2026 and 2027, reflecting a cautious approach to economic data dependency [7]. Forward Guidance - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue its rate-cutting trajectory, with predictions of two additional 25 basis point cuts in October and December, aiming to reach a neutral rate of 3.25%-3.50% next year [8]. - The yield curve is anticipated to steepen due to market expectations of rate cuts and concerns over the Fed's independence, with potential for further steepening of 15-20 basis points [8]. Market Implications - Gold remains a favorable investment as central bank buying trends continue, and the renewed rate-cutting cycle supports its price, although investors are advised to adopt a dollar-cost averaging strategy due to high valuations [9]. - U.S. equities are expected to continue a moderate upward trend, driven by strong corporate earnings rather than valuation increases, with a balanced investment strategy recommended [9].

Core Insights - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for August dropped significantly from a previous value of 79,000 to 22,000, indicating a clear weakness in the job market [2] - The unemployment rate rose from 4.2% to 4.3%, with expectations that it may continue to increase, suggesting further deterioration in the employment landscape [2] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell highlighted the worsening job market at the recent Jackson Hole central bank conference, which supports the case for potential interest rate cuts in September [2] - Market discussions are focused on the pace and magnitude of future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with skepticism about rapid and substantial reductions before Powell's term ends in May [2] - The U.S. economy may face significant negative pressure from high interest rates over the next six months, increasing the risk of economic downturn and uncertainty [2] - External factors, including President Trump's tariff policies and international political and economic conditions, contribute to the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. economy, potentially leading to "black swan" events [2] Economic Outlook - The outlook for the U.S. economy appears bleak, with indications of impending challenges and instability [3]