高盛团队由其首席经济学家简·哈祖斯领导，在上周给客户的一份报告中自认为相对于共识观点"更为乐 观"。该行预测美国2026年日历年均增长率为2.6%。在77家机构预测中，高盛的这一预测乐观程度排名 第四——若仅看华尔街投行，则位列第一。 智通财经APP获悉，在圣诞假期前发布的年度展望报告中，高盛和花旗的经济团队对美国经济前景的判 断形成了鲜明对比，讨论这种差异可能有助于思考2026年的经济走势。 花旗对此并不那么确信。他们估计额外退税规模更为温和，在300亿至500亿美元之间。该行也认为宽松 金融环境带来的支撑有限，并强调这些条件今年未能阻止失业率上升。 高盛团队这样表述："主要脆弱点仍然是美国劳动力市场的裂痕，如果就业疲软进入可能再次引发严重 衰退担忧的区间。" 关于不确定性降低的问题，花旗经济学家写道："几乎没有证据表明2025年下半年招聘放缓是由于贸易 或其他政策不确定性造成的。"疲软的就业市场是该行经济前景判断的关键，他们强调了疲弱的招聘和 工资增长数据。 花旗写道："我们的基本预期是，招聘将保持低迷，导致收入增长放缓，消费者支出持续减速。" 两家银行都认为美联储决策者将在2026年进一步降息，高盛预测 ...

上述低于预期的11月CPI和核心CPI数据表明美国经济的通货膨胀反弹压力没有预期的那么大，通货膨胀数据仍然处于 下行通道。这在一定程度上支撑美联储在明年1月继续下调美国联邦基金利率水平。 同时公布的美国至12月13日当周初请失业金人数为22.4万人，较前值23.7万人有所改善。 12月18日公布的数据显示，美国11月CPI年率为2.7%，低于预期值3.1%。同时公布的美国11月核心CPI年率为2.6%，也 低于预期值3%。 笔者认为，美联储在明年1月的议息会议上继续降息的可能性在上升，但是这仍然需要观察未来的一些重要的经济数 据，特别是就业市场的数据是否进一步恶化。 然而，近期公布的美国消费者信心指数不仅处于低位，还有进一步下行的趋势，这给美国经济的前景带来了很大的不确 定性。 JerryZang 免责声明：本文内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。一切有关市场的准确信息， 请以相关官方公告为准。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 最新公布的美国12月费城联储制造业指数从前值-1.7大幅下降至-10.2。这进一步反映出美国制造业的不景气。 尽管美国制造业不景气已经是不争的事实，但是美国经济总 ...

这边说下昨日原油市场的表现，美原油：下跌2.57%，收于55.07美元/桶。布伦特原油下跌2.57%，收于 58.82美元/桶。今日国际油价有所反弹，截至发稿，美原油暂报55.74美元/桶，涨幅1.22%。 另外，昨晚公布的美国11月非农就业人数略高于市场预期，10月非农就业人数则是远超市场预期下修， 11月失业率升至为2021年9月以来新高。引发市场对美国经济前景的担忧，国际油价在数据公布后快速 跳水。 而今早公布的美国上周API原油库存录得减少932.2万桶，预期减少219.7万桶。汽油库存增加483.5万 桶，预期增加210万桶，精炼油库存增加251.1万桶，预期增加206.6万桶。原油库存虽大幅下降，但成品 油库存录得增加，需求疲软的信号更突出。 今日是新一轮油价调整周期的第7个工作日，当前预计油价下调155元/吨，折合每升油价下调0.12-0.14 元，相比昨日的油价预计跌幅增加40元/吨，远超下调红线，油价要跌。 注意，油价大跌中 注意，受俄乌和平预期影响，原油的地缘政治风险溢价继续消退，委内瑞拉的紧张局势未能提供有效支 撑，只是稍稍限制了油价跌幅。国际油价目前已四连跌，如果能继续保持跌势，本轮油 ...

相关分析指出，展望后市，美国经济前景仍面临不确定性。劳动力市场降温趋势已现，但消费韧性及工 资增速放缓，给了美联储更多的观察空间，短期内再次降息的门槛仍然较高。机构普遍预期，2026年美 联储的宽松幅度可能维持在温和水平，除非未来数据出现失业率持续攀升或消费明显收缩。在利率预期 转向宽松、美元可能相对疲弱的背景下，黄金中长期趋势依然获得支撑，但需警惕数据后续修订以及突 发地缘事件可能引发的双向波动。 美国劳工统计局数据显示，美国11月非农就业人口增加6.4万人，优于市场预期的5万人左右；但10月数 据被大幅下修为减少10.5万人，显著低于初值。11月失业率升至4.6%，创2021年9月以来新高。零售销 售方面，10月整体环比持平，低于预期；然而扣除汽车、汽油、建材和餐饮服务的"核心控制组"零售销 售环比强劲增长0.8%，远超预期的0.4%，显示消费者在核心领域的支出仍有韧性。 12月16日，金价早盘持续走低，随着非农就业数据发布，金价冲高后小幅回落，收复4300美元整数关 口，截至收盘，COMEX黄金期货跌0.07%报4332.2美元/盎司，黄金ETF华夏(518850)跌1.19%，黄金股 ETF(1595 ...

来源：21世纪经济报道 增长已连续数月放缓甚至下跌。刚刚结束的"黑色星期五"美国销售增加也主要靠更大力度折扣优惠促 销，实际商品价格继续下降。 去年以来，美国居民收入增长趋缓，中低收入群体因成本上升及担忧就业和经济前景不确定性而精打细 算，控制支出。9月经通胀调整后的实际个人可支配收入仅增长0.1%，实际个人消费支出环比增长0%， 个人储蓄率高达4.7%，对消费需求的抑制仍在持续，价格也将相应受到抑制，通胀下行趋势仍将延 续。美国11月ISM服务业PMI指数显示，11月服务及材料支付价格指数从10月70降至65.4，为今年4月以 来最低，尽管仍处历史较高水平，但印证了服务通胀降温的趋势性判断。更加重要的是，尽管美国通胀 高于2%目标已持续4年多，但长期通胀预期特别是市场指标仍较为稳固地锚定在2%附近，为最终实现 通胀目标提供了保障。 从增长看，受关税及地缘政治等不确定性影响，加之美国经济自身降温趋冷，下半年经济增长趋缓，美 国就业总体仍处于低招聘甚至停招聘状态，失业率小幅上升，裁员开始增加。影响第四季度增长的最大 不利因素是联邦政府40多天的停摆，大致影响GDP零点几个百分点，重开后或许会有所反弹弥补，可能 ...

贵金属日报 | 2025-11-27 上期所金银持仓与成交量变化情况： 2025-11-26，Au2602合约上，多头较前一日变化7552手，空头则是变化2687手。沪金合约上个交易日总成交量为 453331手，较前一交易日变化7.60%。在沪银方面，在Ag2602合约上，多头变动14304手，空头变动9941手。白银 合约上个交易日总成交量2051420手，较前一交易日变化15.48%。 贵金属ETF持仓跟踪： 贵金属ETF方面，昨日黄金ETF持仓为1,040.86吨，较前一交易日持平。白银ETF持仓为15,582吨，较前一交易日增 加70吨。 褐皮书揭示美国经济前景基本维稳 市场分析 美联储发布褐皮书显示，根据美联储12个辖区中的大部分报告，自上次报告以来，经济活动基本持平；不过有2个 辖区指出经济小幅下滑，1个辖区报告经济小幅增长；整体看前景基本未变，部分人士指出未来几个月经济活动放 缓的风险加大。就业市场看，美国上周初请失业金人数减少6000人至21.6万人，为4月中旬以来新低，低于预期值 22.5万人。此前一周的续申请失业金人数小幅上升至196万人。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-11-26，沪金主 ...

Core Insights - The National Association for Business Economics (NABE) predicts a slight acceleration in U.S. economic growth to 2% next year, up from 1.8% in the previous survey [1] - Increased personal spending and business investment are expected to drive economic growth, but new import tariffs from the Trump administration are projected to drag growth down by at least 0.25 percentage points [1] - The report identifies "tariff impact" as the largest downside risk to the U.S. economic outlook, with stricter immigration enforcement also seen as a factor suppressing growth [1] Economic Indicators - Inflation is expected to be 2.9% by the end of this year, slightly lower than the previous forecast of 3%, and is projected to decrease only marginally to 2.6% next year, with tariffs contributing 0.25 to 0.75 percentage points [1] - Job growth is anticipated to remain moderate, with an average of approximately 64,000 new jobs added monthly, significantly below recent averages [1] - The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.5% by early 2026 and remain at that level throughout the year [1] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in December, with an additional 50 basis points reduction anticipated next year, approaching a neutral monetary policy rate [1]

Core Viewpoint - The industrial metals market is under pressure, with aluminum prices falling to a near four-week low and copper prices also declining, primarily due to diminishing expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and delays in key U.S. economic data releases caused by government shutdowns [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - The overall industrial metals market is exhibiting risk-averse sentiment ahead of the release of several important economic indicators [3]. - The U.S. non-farm payroll report for September, set to be released on Thursday, is highly anticipated and is expected to significantly influence the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy direction [3]. - Recent comments from multiple Federal Reserve officials indicate that further interest rate cuts are not advisable at this time, which is putting pressure on the demand outlook for commodities [3]. Group 2: Price Movements - Aluminum prices surged to a three-year high in early November, driven by strong demand from China and ongoing supply constraints globally [3]. - However, concerns regarding the U.S. economic outlook and monetary policy have led to a pullback in aluminum prices, along with other metal categories [3]. - Market observers suggest that the industrial metals market may continue to experience volatility until key economic data and clearer signals from the Federal Reserve are available [3].

Group 1: Gold Market Performance - As of November 12, the Shanghai gold futures contract is reported at 945.56 CNY per gram, with an increase of 0.14% [1] - The opening price for the day was 949.84 CNY per gram, with a high of 952.08 CNY and a low of 940.78 CNY [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic News - The U.S. Senate has passed a temporary funding bill, with the House of Representatives set to vote on it [2] - According to ADP, the U.S. private sector has seen an average weekly job loss of 11,250 positions over the four weeks ending October 25 [2] - Goldman Sachs estimates a reduction of approximately 50,000 non-farm jobs in October, marking the largest decline since 2020 [2] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is at 67.6%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 32.4% [2] Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - The upcoming vote on the temporary bill in the House is expected to alleviate concerns about a government shutdown, improving market liquidity [3] - Weak ADP employment data has contributed to a continued decline in the U.S. dollar, providing support for gold and silver [3] - After three weeks of consolidation, precious metals have absorbed previous negative factors, but the impact of the government shutdown on the macroeconomic landscape remains unclear [3] - The ongoing debate in the U.S. Supreme Court regarding the legality of tariffs from the Trump administration adds complexity to the economic outlook [3] - The release of employment and inflation data following the end of the government shutdown will influence Federal Reserve guidance on potential rate cuts in December, potentially leading to market volatility [3] - Overall, precious metals are expected to experience strong fluctuations at high levels in the near term [3]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices rebounded above $4,000, reflecting investor assessment of the latest U.S. labor data's impact on Federal Reserve policy outlook [1] Group 1: Market Performance - New York gold futures rose by 0.7% to $4,021.40 per ounce, while the U.S. dollar index fell by 0.2% to 99.97 [1] - Gold has increased by 52% year-to-date, supported by central bank purchases, ETF inflows, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Private sector hiring rebound alleviated concerns about a weakening U.S. labor market [1] - Service sector continues to grow, serving as a key driver of the U.S. economy [1] Group 3: Market Uncertainty - Increased uncertainty for traders regarding economic outlook and potential further easing paths, especially with the Federal Reserve's last meeting in 2025 approaching and key data delayed due to government shutdown [1]