Financial Performance - Goldman Sachs reported adjusted EPS of $12.25 for Q3 2025, exceeding the analyst estimate of $11.00, with net revenue of $15.18 billion, surpassing the estimated $14.10 billion [2][10] - The firm's provision for credit losses was lower than expected at $339 million, compared to an estimate of $369 million [2] - Albertsons reported adjusted EPS of $0.44 for Q2 2025, outperforming the estimated $0.40, with revenue reaching $18.915 billion against an estimate of $18.886 billion [4][10] - Goldman Sachs declared a dividend of $4 per share and achieved a return on equity (ROE) of 14.2% with net income of $4.1 billion [3] Market Developments - The write-off of Credit Suisse's Additional Tier 1 (AT1) capital instruments was revoked, providing clarity and potential relief for impacted bondholders [6][10] - Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley raised their target prices for Broadcom Inc., indicating positive sentiment for the semiconductor company [8] Geopolitical Events - China imposed sanctions on South Korean shipbuilder Hanwha Ocean, escalating trade tensions and prohibiting Chinese entities from engaging with Hanwha's U.S.-linked units [5][10] - Chinese Premier Li Qiang emphasized the need for a resilient economy, urging the full utilization of policy resources and counter-cyclical adjustments to stabilize economic growth [7][10]

Fiscal Policy - Indonesia's budget-deficit cap, a cornerstone of its fiscal policy for decades, may now impede economic growth [1] Economic Outlook - A key technocrat who played a role in rebuilding Indonesia's economy post-Asian financial crisis expresses concern [1]

Government Employment & Economic Perspective - Government should focus on core functions like infrastructure, healthcare, and education, rather than being seen as the primary solution to employment [4][13][28][32] - Over-reliance on government jobs is detrimental to the country and its youth, as the real work and innovation lie in the market [31][35] - Jobs are fundamentally created by fulfilling societal needs through the production of goods and services, not by government decree [16][17][34] - India's education system needs transformation to prioritize usable, employable skills, similar to South Korea and Germany [25][26][27][33] - A cultural shift is needed to value all productive work and focus on competence, not just job security within the government sector [33] Labor Market & Wage Disparity - Government jobs in India can absorb only about 1% of the annual influx of young people entering the job market (12 million/year), highlighting the limited capacity of the public sector [8] - In the past 8 years, only 720,000 people (7.2% of applicants) were selected for government jobs out of 220 million applicants [7] - Government wages in India are significantly higher (181 rupees for every 100 rupees in the private sector) for the same work, without corresponding outcomes [10][18] - A service delivery crisis exists in India, with the country ranking poorly on global indicators compared to other large economies [29][30][31]

Core Viewpoint - The latest Wall Street Journal survey indicates that forecasters expect the Federal Reserve to become less independent in its decision-making process [1] Group 1 - The survey reflects a shift in expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's autonomy [1]

Economic Growth - Economic growth has shown resilience in 2025 year-to-date despite negative macroeconomic conditions caused by the trade war and tariffs [1] - The primary reason for this resilience is likely attributed to frontloading [1]

Core Points - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut benchmark interest rates by 50 basis points to 2.5%, the lowest since July 2022, due to growth concerns [1] - RBNZ expects inflation to return to its 2% target by the first half of next year, while weak economic activity is anticipated in mid-2025 [2] - New Zealand's GDP contracted by 1.1% year on year in the second quarter, worse than the 0.9% drop expected, attributed to domestic supply constraints and global economic uncertainty [3] - Growth forecasts for New Zealand's trading partners, especially China and Taiwan, have improved, with the World Bank projecting China's economy to grow by 4.8% in 2025 [4] - Domestic inflationary pressures are moderating, with headline inflation at 2.7% for the second quarter, near the RBNZ's target band of 1%-3% [5]

Market Outlook & Economic Conditions - Uncertainty surrounding government shutdowns and Washington agreement weighs on investors, but underlying fundamentals are lifting markets [3] - Softening labor market and potential inflationary pressures due to tariffs create a complex situation for the Federal Reserve [8] - Political polarization in Washington can erode investor confidence [6] - Northern Trust Asset Management believes the odds of a US recession have decreased [10] Monetary Policy - The market anticipates potential Fed interest rate cuts due to uncertainty [7] - Northern Trust Asset Management expects the Fed funds rate to be approximately 100 basis points (1%) lower over the next 12 months [9] Investment Strategy - Northern Trust Asset Management favors risk assets (stocks) within a balanced portfolio [10] - Recently, the firm has increased exposure to the US market due to increased confidence in a soft landing [10] - Companies doubled earnings estimates last quarter, indicating a strong trend for the year ahead [11]

Group 1 - The RBI's fourth bi-monthly policy aims to enhance credit flow and support growth through measures such as the withdrawal of frameworks related to specified borrowers and allowing M&A financing by Indian banks [1][12] - The extension of timelines for repatriation from foreign currency accounts and simplification of reconciliation processes will improve the ease of doing business for the export sector [2][12] - The focus on enhancing customer satisfaction and improving the use of the rupee in cross-border transactions will strengthen the financial ecosystem and currency outlook [3][12] Group 2 - The RBI maintained the repurchase rate at 5.5% and adopted a neutral policy stance, allowing flexibility for future adjustments [6][12] - With inflation at historic lows, there is significant room for supporting growth, and future policies will be data-driven [7][12] - The principle-based framework for infrastructure lending clarifies risk weights and supports long-term lending practices, contributing to nation-building [9][12] Group 3 - The combination of policy stability, improving consumption, and sustained credit demand positions India for long-term growth [10][12] - GST reforms are providing fiscal support, giving the RBI more flexibility and reducing reliance on monetary easing [10][12] - The RBI's decision to hold rates reinforces stability in the lending environment, with previous rate cuts already making home loans more affordable [11][12]

Indonesia’s new finance minister said he would not consider easing long-standing fiscal restraints until he could prove that Southeast Asia’s largest economy could grow faster by spending more efficiently https://t.co/4SQaxlUNAT ...

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of India's upcoming interest rate decision is expected to be challenging, with factors such as low inflation and economic growth pressures influencing the potential for rate cuts [1][5]. Economic Outlook - A majority of economists (24 out of 39) predict that the repurchase rate will remain at 5.5%, while 15 anticipate a quarter-point reduction due to deteriorating growth prospects [2]. - The monetary policy committee, led by Governor Sanjay Malhotra, faces competing objectives, with inflation expected to ease further and growth impacted by high US tariffs [3][6]. - Inflation is currently near the lower end of the 2%–6% target band and is projected to decrease further following recent tax cuts [3][7]. Inflation and Growth Projections - The RBI had previously predicted inflation at 3.1% for the current fiscal year, with an economist estimating average inflation around 2.7% [7]. - The tax cuts are anticipated to mitigate the negative effects of tariffs, keeping growth close to the government's forecast range of 6.3%–6.8%, with the RBI projecting 6.5% growth for the fiscal year [8]. Market Reactions - Indian bonds have remained in a narrow trading range, with analysts suggesting that only strong dovish signals from the RBI could trigger a market rebound [9]. - Traders are cautious ahead of the policy meeting, having been surprised by the RBI's recent decisions, including a neutral policy stance and a rate hold despite easing inflation [10]. - The yield on the benchmark 10-year bond has increased by over 30 basis points since the June meeting [10]. Currency Considerations - Traders will be attentive to the governor's comments regarding the currency amidst trade tensions, with some analysts suggesting that the RBI may be allowing the rupee's weakness as a strategy to enhance the competitiveness of Indian exporters [12].