Core Insights - In 2025, Beijing achieved a regional GDP of 52,073.4 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.4% at constant prices [1] Economic Performance - The industrial added value of enterprises above designated size in Beijing grew by 6.5% at comparable prices last year [1] Key Industries - The computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry experienced a growth of 20.2% [1] - The automotive manufacturing industry saw a growth of 17.7% [1]

Index Performance - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 26,564, down 1.0% for the day and up 3.6% year-to-date (YTD) [2] - The HSCEI closed at 9,134, down 0.9% for the day and up 2.5% YTD [2] - The MSCI China index closed at 86, down 1.0% for the day and up 3.6% YTD [2] Commodity Price Performance - Brent Crude remained stable at US$64 per barrel, with a YTD increase of 5.4% [3] - Gold prices rose to US$4,671 per ounce, reflecting an 8.1% increase YTD [3] - Copper prices fell to US$12,803 per ton, down 2.3% for the day but up 3.1% YTD [3] Economic Indicators - China's GDP growth moderated to 4.5% YoY in Q4 2025, slightly above expectations, with a full-year growth of 5% for 2025 [6] - Industrial profits in China decreased by 13.1% YoY as of January 27, 2026 [4] - The 1-Year Loan Prime Rate in China remained stable at 3.0% as of January 20, 2026 [4] Sector Insights - The OTA sector is under pressure due to an antitrust probe involving Trip.com, which saw a stock price drop of over 20% [10] - Despite the probe, long-term earnings impact on Trip.com is expected to be limited, with investor confidence potentially returning by August 2026 [10] - The property market in China is showing marginal improvement, but underlying pressures persist, with expectations for stabilization by late 2026 or early 2027 [13]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Chinese economy, specifically analyzing Q4 GDP performance and December economic activity indicators, including industrial production, fixed asset investment, and retail sales. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **GDP Growth**: China's real GDP growth moderated to **4.5% year-on-year (yoy)** in Q4 from **4.8% yoy** in Q3, primarily due to a high base effect. Sequentially, GDP growth showed a slight acceleration to **1.2% quarter-over-quarter (qoq) seasonally adjusted non-annualized** in Q4 from **1.1% qoq** in Q3 [1][8][17]. 2. **Industrial Production**: Industrial production (IP) growth increased to **5.2% yoy** in December from **4.8% yoy** in November, driven by stronger-than-expected exports, particularly in the computer & electronics equipment and pharmaceutical sectors [1][9][10]. 3. **Fixed Asset Investment (FAI)**: FAI growth declined significantly to **-13.0% yoy** in December from **-10.7% yoy** in November, marking the first full-year contraction since the 1990s at **-3.8% yoy** for 2025. This decline is attributed to statistical corrections and fundamental factors such as "anti-involution" policies and a prolonged property downturn [1][11][12]. 4. **Retail Sales**: Retail sales growth slowed to **0.9% yoy** in December from **1.3% yoy** in November, indicating broad-based weakness across sectors. Online and offline sales both decelerated, with restaurant sales growth also declining [1][12][13]. 5. **Services Sector Performance**: The services industry output index grew by **5.0% yoy** in December, up from **4.2% yoy** in November, suggesting that services consumption is outpacing goods consumption [1][13]. 6. **Property Market Trends**: The property market continued to show weakness, with new home starts and completions contracting by **-19.3% yoy** and **-18.3% yoy**, respectively, in December. Property sales also remained depressed, with a **-15.5% yoy** decline in volume terms [1][14]. 7. **Labor Market Conditions**: The nationwide unemployment rate remained stable at **5.1%** in December, with a slight decrease from **5.2%** in November after seasonal adjustment. The youth unemployment rate for the 16-24 age group was reported at **16.9%** in November [1][16]. 8. **Future Economic Outlook**: The forecast for full-year real GDP growth in 2026 is maintained at **4.8%**, slightly above the market consensus of **4.5%**. The report suggests that incremental policy easing will be necessary to address subdued domestic demand and structural challenges [1][17][34]. Additional Important Insights - The divergence in economic performance is highlighted, with strong export growth contrasting with weak domestic demand [1]. - The report emphasizes the importance of statistical corrections in interpreting recent economic data, particularly regarding FAI [1][11]. - The services sector's growth is noted as a positive sign amid overall economic challenges, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards services rather than goods [1][13]. This summary encapsulates the key findings and insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook of the Chinese economy.

Summary of Economic Data Surprises and Market Reactions in 2025 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the US economy, analyzing economic data surprises, forecasting performance, and market reactions related to growth and inflation in 2025 [1][2]. Key Points Economic Growth - The US GDP is projected to have increased just under 2.5% Q4/Q4 in 2025, aligning with the initial forecast of 2.4% and surpassing the consensus forecast of 1.9% [3][4]. - Initial growth forecasts were lowered by 1.9 percentage points due to anticipated large tariffs, but were later adjusted upward after the most disruptive tariffs were scaled back [4][5]. Inflation - The core PCE price index increased by approximately 2.8% Q4/Q4 in 2025, which is higher than the forecast of 2.4% and reflects a modest progress in disinflation [12][16]. - The overshoot in inflation is attributed to larger-than-expected tariffs, contributing an estimated 60 basis points to the year-on-year rate [12][16]. Forecast Performance - The hit rate for economic indicator forecasts averaged 71% in 2025, slightly above the 64% average since 2017, with notable accuracy in GDP (100% correct) and core CPI (90% correct) [16][22]. - The performance lagged for the ISM manufacturing index, achieving only a 44% hit rate, indicating overly optimistic forecasts for manufacturing surveys [22][29]. Market Reactions - Market sensitivity to inflation data surprises was notably high, with stock market reactions at 1.5 times the normal level and bond market reactions at 2.6 times the historical average [29][33]. - The relative importance of the unemployment rate in market reactions has increased, with an estimated 80% weight on unemployment surprises compared to 20% on nonfarm payrolls, reflecting uncertainty in labor market conditions [36][39]. Economic Indicators - The report includes various economic indicators such as consumer expenditures, business fixed investment, and housing market statistics, projecting a mixed outlook for these areas in 2025 and beyond [43][44]. - Notable projections include a decline in residential fixed investment by 2.1% and an increase in business fixed investment by 4.1% in 2025 [43]. Additional Insights - The report highlights the impact of frontloading imports ahead of tariff increases, which distorted GDP measurements due to the differing treatment of imports and inventory investments [8][9]. - The economic outlook for 2026 suggests potential moderation in market reactions due to expected healthy growth and lower inflation, but uncertainties in the labor market may keep reactions elevated [39]. Conclusion - The analysis provides a comprehensive overview of the US economic landscape in 2025, emphasizing the interplay between tariffs, inflation, and market reactions, while also highlighting the forecasting accuracy and challenges faced by analysts in predicting economic trends.

Market Overview - U.S. stock futures rose on Friday following a positive close on Thursday, with major benchmark indices showing higher futures [1] - Chip stocks performed well, particularly after Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. reported a record quarter [1] - Financial stocks also rallied, with Goldman Sachs Group Inc. rising over 4% and Morgan Stanley increasing nearly 6% due to strong fourth-quarter profits [1] Index Performance - The following indices showed performance changes: - Dow Jones: +0.11% - S&P 500: +0.28% - Nasdaq 100: +0.47% - Russell 2000: +0.38% [3] - The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust was up 0.30% at $694.33, while the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF advanced 0.51% to $624.93 in premarket trading [3] Company Highlights - Chevron Corp. increased by 0.51% in premarket trading after announcing a final investment decision to expand the Leviathan reservoir's production capacity, targeting 21 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually by the end of the decade [7] - Paysafe Ltd. gained 2.20% following a strategic partnership with Pay.com to enhance transaction approval rates for global merchants [7] - J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc. dropped 4.19% after reporting fourth-quarter revenue of $3.097 billion, slightly below estimates [7] - QXO Inc. declined 4.08% after announcing a $750 million common stock offering and reporting preliminary fourth-quarter net sales of $2.19 billion [16] - ImmunityBio Inc. shares surged 21.01% after announcing preliminary net product revenue for Anktiva of approximately $113 million for fiscal 2025, reflecting a 700% year-over-year increase [16] Economic Insights - Analysts maintain a bullish outlook for the U.S. economy in 2026, citing a robust 4.3% GDP growth rate in late 2025 [11] - Despite weak manufacturing, strength in services and consumer spending indicates positive economic indicators [12] - Analysts suggest focusing on long-term themes rather than daily market fluctuations, viewing the current environment as favorable for investors [13]

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Core Insights - Americans maintained strong spending momentum early in the holiday season, indicating potential for a significant boost in fourth-quarter economic growth [1] Retail Sector - Broad retail gains were observed, suggesting robust consumer activity during the holiday shopping period [1] - Strong dining out data further supports the notion of increased consumer spending [1] Economic Growth - The current spending trends could lead to real GDP growth exceeding 3% in the fourth quarter [1]

Inflation Overview - India's consumer inflation rose to 1.33% in December, up from 0.71% in the previous month, but below economists' expectations of a 1.5% increase [1] - The increase in inflation was primarily driven by rising prices in personal care, vegetables, meat, fish, eggs, spices, and pulses [2] Sectoral Analysis - Headline inflation increased by 0.76% in the rural sector and 2.03% in urban areas in December, while fuel and light inflation eased to 1.97%, down from 2.32% in November [2] Economic Projections - The Reserve Bank of India revised its consumer inflation forecast to 2% for the fiscal year ending March 2026, down from a previous estimate of 2.6% [3] - The central bank anticipates inflation to rise to 2.9% for the quarter ending March and reach 4.0% for the quarter ending September 2026 [3] - An early estimate projected real GDP growth of 7.4% and nominal GDP growth of 8.0% for fiscal year 2026, significantly lower than the 10.1% nominal GDP growth forecast in the Union Budget [4]

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Investment Rating - The report projects a real GDP growth of 4.8% for 2026, which is above the consensus expectation of 4.5% [7]. Core Insights - China's manufacturing competitiveness and rare earth controls are expected to drive export volumes growth of 5-6% annually [7]. - The current account surplus is projected to be 4.2% of GDP, significantly higher than the consensus of 2.5% [7]. - Although the property market has not yet bottomed, its negative impact on GDP growth is expected to lessen [7]. - Government consumption growth is anticipated to increase, compensating for weak household consumption in 2026 [7]. - Investment is expected to rebound from 2025 to 2026 [7]. Economic Growth - The report anticipates a gradual reflation process in China, with PPI inflation expected to rise from -2.6% in 2025 to -0.7% in 2026 and headline CPI inflation increasing from 0% in 2025 to 0.6% in 2026 [7]. - The fiscal deficit is projected to widen by 1.2 percentage points of GDP, reaching 12.2% in 2026 [33]. Policy Outlook - The report expects a 20 basis points cut in policy rates and a year-end USDCNY exchange rate of 6.85 [7]. - The 15th Five-Year Plan continues to prioritize manufacturing, technology, and security [7]. Investment Trends - Investment growth is expected to rebound in 2026 due to policy support and a low base effect [42]. - The report highlights that the high-tech sector is projected to contribute an average of 1 percentage point to real GDP growth over the next five years [59].