Trump says Putin agreed to halt bombing of cities and towns in Ukraine as the country prepares for an extreme cold snap https://t.co/U8ISIaGmfS ...

A number of Middle Eastern governments are trying to push the U.S. and Iran into talks to head off a possible conflict—efforts that so far are failing to gain traction as both sides dig in https://t.co/Mccu1Nb5vK ...

💡 Key Takeaways🔹 Track USD/JPY + geopolitics, rotations are still fragile.🔹 Watch BNB’s $900 level as the sentiment line in the sand.🔹 Follow ENSO + “intent” tooling after the volume spike.Stay informed, stay ahead:https://t.co/huzNYtuDpr7/7 ...

Group 1 - Exxon Mobil and Chevron executives are expected to face inquiries regarding their investment opportunities in Venezuela during analyst calls [1] - The focus on Venezuela may overshadow discussions about their actual quarterly earnings [1]

China indicated that an anti-graft purge roiling the People’s Liberation Army won’t impede its plans for eventually taking control of self-run Taiwan https://t.co/WKzcDacW0W ...

Our troops on the other side of the world are vulnerable, therefore we need more troops on the other side of the world, sez Marco.Mega Geopolitics (@MegaGeopolitics):BREAKING: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 Marco Rubio says that 30-40 thousand American troops are at risk in the Middle East because they are within range of Iranian missiles https://t.co/VoHPYyxm5i ...

Gold prices continued to surge to new record highs as the yellow metal cleared $5,600 per ounce on Thursday. Gold had surged past the $5,000 threshold for the first time this Monday, marking a weekly... ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that global smartphone AMOLED panel shipments are expected to decline to 810 million units in 2026, down from 817 million units in 2025, marking the first drop after three consecutive years of growth [1] - The primary reason for this decline is the shortage of memory supply and skyrocketing prices, leading smartphone manufacturers to lower their procurement plans for 2026 [1] - The price increase of memory has approached or even exceeded the cost of smartphone display panels, limiting the room for AMOLED manufacturers to offer substantial discounts in 2026 [1] Group 2 - The current memory supply tightness and price surge are directly attributed to the surge in demand from AI servers, which prioritize storage capacity for high-margin products, tightening supply for the entire consumer electronics chain [4] - An overlooked factor contributing to this situation is the escalation of geopolitical tensions, alongside the U.S. entering a rate-cutting cycle, which has weakened the dollar and attracted speculative capital into dollar-denominated commodities markets, including gold, silver, copper, and semiconductors [4] - The combination of industrial and financial attributes of these products, along with investors' demand for hedging against inflation, has further amplified price elasticity, leading to a revaluation of basic material pricing, which transmits input inflation to midstream and downstream manufacturing sectors [4]

Performance Summary - The portfolio achieved a return of 5.7% in the second half of 2025, resulting in a total return of +10.2% for the calendar year and +76% since inception in Canadian dollars net of fees [2][3] - Realized gains since inception are reported at +71.4%, with unrealized gains at 4.6% as of December 31, 2025 [3][35] - The portfolio's exposure by strategy bucket shows a significant concentration in Special Situations Equity at 35.9% for FY 2025, while Core Value Equity stands at 47% [4] Geopolitical Landscape - The investment landscape is undergoing dramatic shifts due to geopolitical changes, impacting competitive intensity and market size [7][8] - The corporate strategy of relying on low-cost supply chains is being challenged, leading to downward pressure on returns on capital [8] - Despite these changes, the opportunity set for fundamental value investors is not shrinking, but rather evolving [9][11] Portfolio Changes - In the second half of 2025, the company sold positions in Protector, Ryanair, and Alimak, marking the exit from all initial positions since inception [13] - The average return across the initial investments was 2.0x money with a 16% IRR, with no losses recorded on any investment [14] - The portfolio is now more concentrated, with the three largest positions comprising 37% of capital and the five largest making up 57% [19] Investment Cases for Major Holdings - **Burford Capital**: The company has seen an increase in book value per share and cash proceeds from litigation, with a fair value estimate of approximately 3x the current price [24][26] - **Borr Drilling**: The fundamentals have improved, with run-rate EBITDA increasing from $100 million to $500 million, and a fair value estimate of about 3x the current price [25][30] - **GetBusy PLC**: The management's ability to extract value from its US asset is crucial, with a fair value estimate of 2-4x the current price [27][30] - **Fever-Tree Drinks PLC**: The joint venture with Molson Coors is expected to accelerate commercialization, with a focus on recovering margins [28][30] - **Bolloré and Compagnie de L'Odet**: The simplification of the holding structure is ongoing, with potential for significant value creation over time [29][31] Business Update - The company has onboarded new investors aligned with its values and is utilizing AI to enhance business operations and insights [32]

Core Insights - Geopolitics, natural disasters, and AI are identified as key issues facing Asian insurers in 2026 [2] Group 1: Risks and Challenges - Geopolitics was highlighted as a significant risk at the beginning of 2025, and this assessment has proven to be accurate [2]