Retail Trading Growth - CME Group's retail trading volume has been growing exponentially, with Robin Hood being the fastest-growing partner in the retail sector [2] - Retail participation is a component of CME Group's growth, but not the only driver [5] - By 2040, an estimated $85 trillion of wealth transfer to individuals aged 24-40 will influence how business is conducted, necessitating adaptation [6] Market Dynamics and Hedging - Markets are pricing in a potential Fed rate cut [8] - CME Group has 135 million open positions, indicating market participants are hedging their exposures [8] - Despite $37 trillion of US debt, equity markets remain high, driving institutional hedging at CME [10] Future Opportunities - Tokenization of cash markets is seen as important for efficiency [12] - New trading categories may emerge from crypto, blockchain, or restructured traditional products [12]

Core Insights - The article focuses on analyzing Rithm Capital Corp.'s (RITM) recent performance compared to 17 mortgage real estate investment trust (mREIT) peers, highlighting key metrics such as investment composition, leverage, hedging coverage ratio, and economic returns [1][2][3]. Investment Composition and Performance - As of June 30, 2025, RITM's investment portfolio consisted of 20% fixed-rate agency MBS, 0% variable-rate agency MBS, 36% mortgage servicing rights (MSR), and 44% non-agency MBS and other mortgage-related investments [17][19]. - RITM's total MSR sub-portfolio had an unpaid principal balance (UPB) of $865 billion, reflecting a significant increase from $648 billion a year prior, largely due to acquisitions [37][38]. Leverage and Hedging - RITM's on-balance sheet leverage ratio was 2.5x, with an at-risk leverage ratio of 0.9x as of June 30, 2025, indicating a slight decrease in leverage compared to the previous quarter [19][20]. - The hedging coverage ratio for RITM was 44% as of June 30, 2025, which is geared towards lower mortgage interest rates, allowing the company to maintain stability in its book value (BV) during fluctuating interest rate environments [46][53]. Economic Returns - RITM achieved a trailing 24-month economic return of 20.97%, outperforming all covered mREIT peers, with the average returns for various classifications being significantly lower [51]. - The company's BV increased by 2.58% from Q1 to Q2 2025, driven by a minor increase in mortgage interest rates and a quarterly dividend of $0.25 per share, resulting in an economic return of 4.60% for Q2 2025 [20][21]. Valuation and Market Position - As of September 5, 2025, RITM's stock price was $12.62, trading at a 2.55% discount to the estimated current BV of $12.95, suggesting a slightly undervalued position compared to peers [48][49]. - RITM's diversified investment strategy, including MSR and other mortgage-related assets, positions it favorably to deliver attractive risk-adjusted returns across various interest rate scenarios [56].

Market Trends - Currency market hedging costs are increasing after a summer lull [1] - Traders are positioning for wider price swings around the US jobs report [1]

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Core Viewpoint - AGNC Investment Corp. and Starwood Property Trust, Inc. are two prominent players in the mortgage real estate investment trusts (mREITs) sector, both providing attractive long-term returns and substantial dividend yields. The analysis aims to compare their strengths, risks, and growth potential to determine which offers a better investment opportunity at present [2]. Group 1: AGNC Investment Corp. - AGNC employs an active portfolio-management strategy, regularly adjusting its holdings and implementing hedges to respond to market changes, positioning itself defensively against volatility [3]. - As of June 30, 2025, AGNC maintained a significant interest rate hedge covering 89% of its outstanding balance, which may enhance cash flow stability and support long-term growth [4]. - The company holds $73.3 billion in Agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), benefiting from government guarantees, which are expected to yield attractive risk-adjusted returns despite market volatility [5]. - AGNC's liquidity, including unencumbered cash and Agency MBS, was reported at $6.4 billion as of June 30, 2025, with a modest increase in leverage to 7.6X [6]. - AGNC has a high dividend yield of 14.66%, exceeding the industry average of 12.12% [17]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates a year-over-year earnings decline of 15.4% for AGNC in 2025 [20]. Group 2: Starwood Property Trust, Inc. - Starwood Property specializes in commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) and manages a portfolio of nearly $27 billion as of June 30, 2025, allowing for stable income generation [7]. - The company has actively optimized its portfolio through strategic acquisitions and divestitures, including the sale of 16 retail properties for $387.1 million in February 2024 [8]. - Starwood's liquidity position is strong, with cash and cash equivalents of $475 million and no short-term debt as of June 30, 2025 [10]. - Starwood is trading at a 12-month forward price-to-tangible book (P/TB) of 1.06X, which is a discount compared to the industry average, making it a more attractive option for value investors [14]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Starwood suggests a year-over-year earnings decline of 6.4% for 2025, but a rise of 7.7% for 2026 [23]. Group 3: Comparative Analysis - In the past six months, STWD shares increased by 4.8%, while AGNC shares rose by 1.7%, outperforming the industry growth of 0.8% [11]. - AGNC is trading at a premium, while STWD trades at a discount, indicating a stronger earnings outlook for STWD [9][14]. - STWD's dividend yield is 9.53%, supported by more sustainable fundamentals and a clearer path to earnings growth compared to AGNC [17][28]. - AGNC is characterized by a defensive income strategy through Agency MBS and hedging, while STWD demonstrates greater resilience and flexibility with disciplined portfolio management [27][28]. - Currently, AGNC holds a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell), whereas Starwood Property has a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), indicating a preference for STWD among investors [29].

Core Insights - Annaly Capital (NYSE:NLY) had a normal quarter with minor changes, experiencing a slight decrease in the value of its assets, which was anticipated, and the stock is currently considered overpriced [1][15] Financial Performance - NLY recorded a minor quarterly book value (BV) decrease that aligned with expectations, with a total net valuation gain of $147 million during Q2 2025, outperforming the projected gain of $110 million [2][10] - Core earnings/EAD for NLY matched expectations with a slight increase compared to Q1 2025, driven by a larger on-balance sheet portfolio size [4][10] - The hedging coverage ratio decreased from 102% to 95%, which was anticipated, indicating a slight reduction in risk management strategies [3][6] Valuation Metrics - The reported GAAP BV per share was $18.45, slightly above the projected $18.35, reflecting a 0.54% outperformance [10] - The stock price is currently at $21.14, leading to a dividend yield of 13.25% and a payout ratio of 96%, indicating a high dividend relative to earnings [12] Market Position - NLY's performance in terms of BV decrease and core earnings increase is expected to outperform most agency mREIT peers, suggesting a relatively strong position in the market [5][14] - The company remains in a good position to maintain its quarterly dividend of $0.70 per common share, despite core earnings only slightly covering this amount [14]

Gold ETF Market Trends - Gold ETFs are experiencing unprecedented interest, driven by risk and uncertainty in the market [2] - Gold ETFs can serve as a hedge against market downturns and unclear risks in portfolios [3] - While gold ETF flows are strong, their percentage of the S&P 500 market capitalization has decreased from 6% to 03% over the last decade, suggesting potentially less hedging in portfolios relative to the equity market [6] - The European ETF market accounts for approximately 35% of the global gold-backed ETF market [11] - Asia, particularly China, India, and Japan, has seen significant growth in gold ETF markets in the last two years [11] Factors Influencing Gold Prices - Central banks' increasing allocation to gold reserves is a significant driver of gold prices [15] - Central banks are diversifying away from the dollar and into gold [15] - Geopolitical risks, Fed decisions, fiscal spending, and inflation are key factors influencing gold prices [13] Tariffs and Market Impact - The market anticipates that gold in the investment and wholesale context will not be subject to tariffs [17] - President Trump's statement on social media has calmed the market regarding potential gold tariffs [18] Innovation in Gold Products - It is difficult to improve upon existing gold ETFs like GLD for tracking the spot price of gold [22][23] - The industry is exploring digitization to improve access to the gold market, potentially creating a "stable gold" alongside ETFs [25][26]

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Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q2 2025, Endeavor Silver reported revenue of $85 million, a 46% increase compared to the prior year, driven by higher precious metal prices and increased production [6] - The company produced 1.5 million ounces of silver and 7,800 ounces of gold, totaling approximately 2.5 million silver equivalent ounces, representing a 13% increase compared to 2024 [5] - Mine operating cash flow before working capital changes rose by 21%, while cash costs were $15.35 per ounce of payable silver, and all-in sustaining costs were $25.26 per ounce [6] - The company reported a net loss of $20 million for the period, primarily due to operating losses during the commissioning of Terronera and increased general and administrative expenses [6][7] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The integration of the newly acquired Colpa mine is ongoing, with production expected to align with historical performance of approximately 5 million silver equivalent ounces annually [9] - The company anticipates achieving an annualized production profile of 20 million silver equivalent ounces by 2026, combining output from Terronera, Guanacevi, and Bolanitos [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - As of June 30, the company's cash position was $52 million, but working capital was negative, which is by design as Terronera approaches commercial production [7] - The company is focusing on optimizing throughput and recovery rates at Terronera, with throughput averaging between 1,900 and 2,000 tons per day and silver and gold recoveries averaging 71% and 67%, respectively [7][16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on achieving commercial production at Terronera and integrating the Colpa acquisition, which is expected to enhance its position as a leading mid-tier silver producer [5][8] - Management is exploring additional acquisition opportunities but emphasizes the need for a breather to ensure Terronera reaches commercial production and generates positive cash flow [23][24] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the ramp-up of Terronera, targeting commercial production by the end of July 2025, and expects recoveries to improve as operational adjustments are made [16][29] - The company anticipates working capital to improve in the second half of the year as cash flows from Terronera are realized [44] Other Important Information - The company is advancing the Pitoria project, focusing on upgrading inferred resources and obtaining necessary permits for tailings dam and economic studies [10][78] - The integration of the Colpa mine is expected to take time, with management working on validating historical resources before providing production guidance [9][75] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on commercial production at Terronera - Management indicated that the ramp-up is progressing well, with recoveries expected to align with historical averages as operational adjustments are made [16][29] Question: Operating costs at Colpa - Management noted that integration costs are impacting current operating costs but expects them to align with historical performance as operations stabilize [30][32] Question: Hedging strategy moving forward - The company prefers not to hedge precious metals, focusing instead on providing exposure to silver price movements for shareholders [41][42] Question: Exploration potential at Colpa - Management is reorganizing the exploration team to adopt a more systematic approach to exploration, with results expected soon [55][56] Question: Timeline for updated technical report for Colpa - An updated technical report is anticipated by mid-2026, as validation of historical resources is underway [75][76]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported EBITDAX of over $155 million for the quarter, with margins remaining strong at $33.58 per barrel of oil equivalent despite lower commodity prices [5][6][27] - Capital expenditures (CapEx) for the second quarter were 30% lower than the first quarter, aligning with the company's internal expectations [5][15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reduced its drilling activity to one rig in mid-May, which impacted production levels but was a strategic decision to manage capital effectively [5][15] - The first simulfrac job was completed successfully, resulting in savings of approximately $400,000 per well, which is about a 10% reduction in total completion costs [19][20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has hedged over 50% of its volumes for the second half of the year with a weighted average floor price of over $62 per barrel [12][13] - Approximately 90% of the second half 2025 gas volumes are hedged at a price of $4.43 per MMBtu [13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maintain capital discipline and flexibility in its operations, with plans to add a second rig in September while monitoring market conditions [15][26] - The recent refinancing of the term loan and revolving credit facility has solidified the company's credit profile and extended debt maturities to September 2028 [7][27] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving production guidance for 2025 despite fluctuations in quarterly volumes due to the timing of well completions [5][42] - The company remains focused on long-term value creation and is prepared to adapt its development plans based on market conditions [26][28] Other Important Information - The company's solar farm has generated significant power savings and reduced CO2 emissions, contributing to its sustainability goals [22] - The company is exploring hybrid simulfrac operations to increase efficiency in completions [38] Q&A Session Summary Question: How much liquidity does the company want to maintain? - The company aims to maintain a liquidity level of $200 million to $250 million, depending on oil prices and hedging strategies [30][31] Question: Can you explain the swings in working capital changes? - The changes in working capital were due to reducing from two rigs to one, with expectations for stability in the third quarter and potential increases as a second rig is added [32][34] Question: Are there any limiting factors on using simulfrac for more completions? - The ability to use simulfrac is influenced by the number of wells on a pad and the current rig count, but the company is exploring ways to implement it more broadly [36][38] Question: How does the inventory of wells in progress affect the decision to add a second rig? - The current inventory of 20 wells is manageable with one rig, but the company will monitor the situation as it progresses [39] Question: What impact will the Middle Spraberry inventory have on year-end reserves? - The company anticipates a significant increase in PUDs associated with Middle Spraberry wells by the end of 2025 compared to 2024 [40][41] Question: What are the production expectations for the next couple of quarters? - Production may fluctuate due to the timing of well completions, but the yearly guidance remains solid [42]