Earnings Reports Overview - Earnings season is commencing with major banks and tech stocks reporting, including Bank of America, Taiwan Semiconductor, JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and Delta Airlines [1] Implied Volatility Insights - Implied volatility tends to be high before earnings reports due to market uncertainty, leading to increased demand for options [2] - After earnings announcements, implied volatility typically decreases to normal levels [3] Expected Stock Movements - Expected price movements for stocks reporting this week include: - Delta Airlines (DAL) - 6.8% - JP Morgan (JPM) - 3.8% - Bank of America (BAC) - 4.0% - Citigroup (C) - 4.5% - Wells Fargo (WFC) - 4.9% - Goldman Sachs (GS) - 4.4% - Morgan Stanley (MS) - 4.3% - Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) - 5.3% - PNC - 3.8% [4][5][6] Trading Strategies - Option traders can utilize expected moves to structure trades, with bearish traders selling bear call spreads and bullish traders selling bull put spreads or considering naked puts [7] - Neutral traders may opt for iron condors, ensuring short strikes remain outside the expected range [7] Risk Management - It is advisable to employ risk-defined strategies and maintain small position sizes when trading options over earnings, limiting potential losses to 1-3% of the portfolio [8] Stock Screening for High Implied Volatility - A stock screener can identify stocks with high implied volatility, focusing on those with total call volume greater than 5,000, market cap over 40 billion, and IV rank above 40% [9][10]

Market Overview - Bitcoin experienced a rise of over 2.3%, reaching a peak of approximately $92,400 before retracting during the European session [1] - The rally was influenced by the potential criminal charges against Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, which also led to gold and silver prices increasing by 2% and 5.6% respectively [1] - Nasdaq 100 futures declined by around 1%, and the dollar index (DXY) weakened, indicating trader uncertainty regarding future interest rates [1] Altcoin Performance - Bitcoin is currently trading at $90,700, with several altcoins maintaining their gains, particularly privacy coins Monero (XMR) and Zcash (ZEC) [2] - Monero reached a record price of $576, rising over 12% since Sunday, while Zcash increased by 3.8% [2] Market Sentiment - CoinMarketCap's "altcoin season" indicator has moved to 30/100, indicating a shift from "bitcoin season" to a neutral zone for the first time since November 18 [3] Derivatives Positioning - Over $200 million in leveraged futures bets were liquidated in 24 hours, with bullish bets making up 50% of this total, suggesting that the market pullback caught many leveraged positions off guard [6] - Volatility indexes for BTC and ETH remain under pressure, indicating expectations for reduced price turbulence in the short term [6] - Open interest (OI) in Monero futures has increased to 369,000 XMR, the highest since February last year, suggesting new capital influx and validating the uptrend [6] - OI in major tokens like BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL, and DOGE declined by 1%-4%, reflecting growing risk aversion [6] - Funding rates for most major tokens remain moderately positive, indicating a bullish bias, while BTC and ETH puts are trading at a premium to calls, suggesting a bias for downside protection [6] Token Activity - Privacy coins led the market, with Monero hitting a record high and Zcash recovering from a governance dispute [6] - Aerodrome Finance's AERO token rose by 10% to $0.60 before retracting to around $0.57 [6] - Solana's SOL token performed well, rising 2.7% from its low of $135 [6] Memecoin Trends - Newly issued memecoins like Whale Guru surged over 146,000% after their launch, generating significant trading volume of $10.5 million [7] - However, not all altcoins performed positively; Lighter's LIT token fell over 10% in the past 24 hours, and Polygon's POL token declined by more than 15% from its peak [7]

Core Viewpoint - Investors should closely monitor DuPont de Nemours, Inc. (DD) stock due to significant implied volatility in the options market, particularly for the Jan 16, 2026 $50 Call option [1] Company Analysis - DuPont de Nemours currently holds a Zacks Rank 5 (Strong Sell) in the Chemical - Diversified industry, which is positioned in the bottom 6% of the Zacks Industry Rank [3] - Over the past 60 days, no analysts have increased their earnings estimates for the current quarter, while three analysts have revised their estimates downward, resulting in a decrease of the Zacks Consensus Estimate from 90 cents per share to 42 cents [3] Options Market Insights - The high implied volatility suggests that options traders are anticipating a significant price movement for DuPont de Nemours shares, potentially indicating an upcoming event that could lead to a major rally or sell-off [2] - Options traders often seek to sell premium on options with high implied volatility, aiming to benefit from the decay of the option's value if the underlying stock does not move as much as expected by expiration [4]

Core Viewpoint - Investors in Guess? Inc. should closely monitor stock movements due to significant activity in the options market, particularly the high implied volatility of the Jan. 16, 2026 $34.75 Put option [1] Group 1: Implied Volatility - Implied volatility indicates the market's expectations for future price movements, suggesting that a significant event may be anticipated that could lead to a major price change [2] - High implied volatility in options often signals that traders expect a substantial move in the underlying stock, which could be due to an upcoming event [2] Group 2: Analyst Sentiment - Guess? currently holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) in the Textile – Apparel industry, which is in the top 25% of the Zacks Industry Rank [3] - Over the past 60 days, one analyst has raised earnings estimates for the current quarter, while no analysts have lowered their estimates, resulting in a decrease of the Zacks Consensus Estimate from $1.53 to $1.47 per share [3] Group 3: Trading Strategies - The high implied volatility surrounding Guess? shares may indicate a developing trading opportunity, as options traders often seek to sell premium on options with high implied volatility [4] - Seasoned traders utilize this strategy to capture decay, hoping that the underlying stock does not move as much as initially expected by expiration [4]

Core Viewpoint - Investors in Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) should closely monitor the stock due to significant movements in the options market, particularly the high implied volatility of the Jan 16, 2026 $85 Put option [1] Company Analysis - Archer-Daniels-Midland currently holds a Zacks Rank of 5 (Strong Sell) within the Agriculture – Operations industry, which is positioned in the bottom 9% of the Zacks Industry Rank [3] - Over the past 30 days, no analysts have raised their earnings estimates for the current quarter, while one analyst has lowered the estimate, resulting in a decrease of the Zacks Consensus Estimate from 85 cents per share to 84 cents [3] Options Market Insights - The high implied volatility surrounding Archer-Daniels-Midland shares suggests that options traders are anticipating a significant price movement, which could indicate an upcoming event that may lead to a substantial rally or sell-off [2][4] - Seasoned options traders often seek to sell premium on options with high implied volatility, aiming to benefit from the decay of the option's value if the underlying stock does not move as much as expected by expiration [4]

Group 1 - Earnings season is approaching with major companies like Taiwan Semiconductor, JP Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and Delta Airlines set to report [1] - Earnings season can increase option premiums, but not all setups are advisable to pursue [1] Group 2 - It is essential to focus on a limited number of trades where risk and reward are favorable [2] - Implied volatility (IV) typically rises before earnings, but using IV Rank to filter stocks with high premiums is crucial [3] - A recommended IV Rank is above 50%, ideally 70% or higher, indicating that options are overpriced relative to the past year [3] Group 3 - Liquidity is vital for trading options, especially during earnings, as it allows for quick adjustments [5] - Tickers should be screened for tight bid/ask spreads (preferably under $0.20), open interest above 500 contracts on near-term strikes, and total call option volume over 5,000 contracts [8] Group 4 - There is no universal strategy for earnings trades; the choice depends on expected moves, volatility crush, and directional bias [9] - The best trades are structured outside the expected move range [10] Group 5 - For a neutral bias with high IV, consider strategies like iron condors or straddles to sell premium and benefit from post-earnings volatility collapse [11] - For a bullish bias with high IV, selling put spreads or naked puts just outside the expected move can be effective [11] - For a bearish bias with high IV, using call credit spreads or bearish calendars is advisable, while being cautious of crowded long setups that may lead to significant downward moves [11]

Core Viewpoint - Investors should closely monitor American Coastal Insurance Corporation (ACIC) stock due to significant movements in the options market, particularly the high implied volatility of the Feb 20, 2026 $9.25 Put option [1] Company Analysis - American Coastal Insurance is currently rated as Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) within the Insurance - Property and Casualty industry, which ranks in the top 39% of the Zacks Industry Rank [3] - Over the past 60 days, one analyst has raised the earnings estimate for the current quarter, while no analysts have lowered their estimates, resulting in a Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current quarter increasing from breakeven earnings per share to 43 cents [3] Options Market Insights - The high implied volatility surrounding American Coastal Insurance shares indicates that options traders are anticipating a significant price movement, which could suggest an upcoming event that may lead to a substantial rally or sell-off [2][4] - Options traders often seek out options with high implied volatility to sell premium, a strategy that aims to benefit from the decay of option value, hoping that the underlying stock does not move as much as initially expected by expiration [4]

Core Viewpoint - Investors should closely monitor Donaldson Company, Inc. (DCI) stock due to significant implied volatility in the options market, particularly the Feb 20, 2026 $55.00 Put option [1] Group 1: Implied Volatility - Implied volatility indicates the market's expectation of future stock movement, with high levels suggesting potential for a significant price change or an upcoming event that could impact the stock [2] - High implied volatility in options may attract traders looking to sell premium, as they anticipate that the underlying stock will not move as much as expected by expiration [4] Group 2: Analyst Sentiment - Donaldson currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) within the Pollution Control Industry, which is positioned in the bottom 23% of the Zacks Industry Rank [3] - Over the past 60 days, one analyst has raised their earnings estimate for the current quarter, while three have lowered theirs, resulting in a consensus estimate decrease from 91 cents to 90 cents per share [3]

Core Insights - Calendar spreads are an options strategy that allows traders to benefit from time decay and changes in implied volatility [1] - This strategy involves selling a short-term option while buying a longer-term option at the same strike price, which can be structured with calls or puts for various market outlooks [1][2] Group 1: Strategy Overview - Calendar spreads are typically used when traders expect limited price movement in the short term but anticipate increased volatility or directional moves later [2] - The strategy can be applied to both bullish and bearish market conditions [2] Group 2: Trade Examples - The Barchart Long Call Calendar Screener highlights potential calendar spread trades on stocks like Delta Airlines (DAL), Netflix (NFLX), Morgan Stanley (MS), Wells Fargo (WFC), and Bank of America (BAC) [3] - For Delta Airlines, a calendar spread at a $70 strike price involves selling a January 16 call option and buying a March 20 call option, costing approximately $2.55, with a maximum profit potential of $230 [4] - The breakeven prices for the Delta Airlines trade are estimated at around $64.75 and $76.75, which may vary with changes in implied volatility [5] Group 3: Trade Management - If Delta Airlines stock breaks through $65 or $77, adjustments or closure of the trade would be considered [6] - For Netflix, a similar calendar spread could be set up by selling the $95-strike January 23 call and buying the $95-strike March 20 call, with the stock currently trading at $91.46 [7]

Group 1 - Alcoa Corp's stock is experiencing a significant surge, reaching three-year highs with a 7.3% increase to $60.67, and has risen approximately 40% in the last month, attracting investor attention [1] - The recent rally occurs amid historically low implied volatility, with the current implied volatility at 45%, which is in the 13th percentile of its annual range [2] - Historical data indicates that after similar trading conditions, Alcoa's stock was higher 60% of the time one month later, averaging an 8% gain, which could position shares at $65.71 if the trend continues [3] Group 2 - The stock's underlying support is noted at the 10-day moving average, providing a buffer in case of a short-term pullback [3]