Core Insights - Inflation in the United States has remained persistent since the COVID-19 pandemic, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropping from a peak of 9.1% in July 2022, yet prices for consumer goods and services, particularly housing and food, remain high [1][2] Group 1: Inflation and Housing Market - Analysts at J.P. Morgan Asset Management predict that the impact of tariffs from the Trump administration has not fully materialized, suggesting that inflation may rise again [2] - Real estate is historically viewed as a hedge against inflation due to its nature as an appreciating asset, with average housing returns slightly outpacing inflation over time [3] - Rising construction costs during inflation lead to higher home prices, as developers pass these costs onto buyers, resulting in increased overall home values [4] Group 2: Tangible Assets and Rental Income - Investors tend to prefer tangible assets like real estate during inflationary periods, as these assets retain value better than paper assets such as cash or stocks [5] - Increased rental income during inflation enhances property value, as landlords typically raise rents, making properties more valuable [5] Group 3: Fixed-Rate Mortgages vs. Rental Market - A significant advantage of a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is the stability of mortgage payments over time, which can become comparatively lower than rising rental costs [6] - Historical data shows that rent inflation in the U.S. has averaged 4.22% annually, leading to substantial increases in rental costs over time [6] - For example, a $2,500 monthly rent could escalate to $3,809 in 10 years and potentially reach $8,846 after 30 years, highlighting the long-term financial benefits of homeownership compared to renting [7]

Gold prices have indeed soared to all-time highs in 2025, prompting headlines about a historic rally. But according to Bank of America (BofA) Global Research, the story is more nuanced: The gold sector, while booming, hasn’t returned to all of the metrics that defined previous cyclical peaks, especially regarding its value relative to the broader equity market and its own historical valuations.This year, gold surged past major thresholds, as the traditional hedge against inflation and macroeconomic uncertai ...

Core Viewpoint - The investment landscape is shifting towards bonds, money markets, and precious metals, with gold being highlighted as a crucial asset for portfolio diversification and protection against economic uncertainties [1][10][11]. Investment Trends - Gold prices have surged approximately 40% year-to-date, with December futures settling at a record $3,686.40 per ounce [2]. - Global gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw inflows of $5.5 billion in August, contributing to a year-to-date total of $47 billion, marking the second strongest inflow on record [12]. Economic Factors - The move away from the U.S. dollar as a global reserve currency, particularly after the confiscation of Russian reserves, has increased the appeal of gold [3]. - Rising U.S. debt levels and concerns regarding the Federal Reserve's independence are also driving interest in gold as a strategic reserve asset [3][6]. Central Bank Activity - Central banks have been purchasing gold at unprecedented levels, acquiring over 1,000 metric tons annually for the past three years, compared to an average of 400 to 500 metric tons in the previous decade [13]. - This trend is attributed to the need for diversification of reserves and hedging against geopolitical and currency risks [13][14]. Market Sentiment - Investor confidence in gold is reportedly strengthening, with a shift in perception from gold as merely an insurance asset to a strategic monetary anchor [11]. - Despite recent price increases, experts believe there is still potential for further gains in gold prices due to persistent inflation and geopolitical tensions [15][16]. Portfolio Recommendations - Financial advisors typically recommend allocating 5% to 10% of investment portfolios to gold, a strategy that remains relevant despite gold's price rise [6]. - UBS suggests a more conservative allocation of less than 5% to gold, emphasizing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets [7].

Group 1 - Ray Dalio warns that American markets are facing a financial "heart attack" due to rising US debt costs, which are constraining economic growth [1][6] - Dalio recommends that investors allocate 10% to 15% of their portfolios to gold, highlighting its unique uncorrelation with other assets and its tendency to rise during crises [2][3] - Gold is currently trading near record highs, with spot gold at $3,641.10 per ounce, reflecting a nearly 40% increase year-to-date, and gold futures at $3,680.60 per ounce [2][14] Group 2 - Dalio has consistently advocated for gold as a hedge against global risks, emphasizing its importance during periods of money printing and debt accumulation [3][4] - Despite stepping down from Bridgewater, Dalio continues to emphasize the need for investors to reassess their holdings in a debt-laden environment [6][7] - The surge in gold prices indicates that investors are shifting focus from equities to gold as a hedge against potential economic instability and geopolitical tensions [10][14] Group 3 - Central banks, including those in China, India, and Russia, have increased their gold holdings this year, diversifying away from the dollar [14] - Historical data shows that gold has performed well during market downturns, such as in 2008 and 2020, reinforcing Dalio's view of gold as a reliable insurance policy [15]

Market Performance - Bitcoin experienced a decline of approximately 6.5% in August, marking its first monthly drop since March, despite reaching a new all-time high of $125,000 earlier in the month [1] - Ether, on the other hand, saw a significant increase of nearly 19%, raising its market capitalization share to around 13% [1] - Bitcoin funds faced net outflows, indicating profit-taking, while ether ETFs attracted substantial inflows, resulting in record levels of assets under management [1] Trading Activity - Market activity remained high, with spot trading volumes exceeding the twelve-month average, which is atypical for the summer season [2] - Open interest in bitcoin and ether options reached new highs, with August recording BTC option trading volumes at $145 billion [2] - Implied volatility remained relatively low but increased towards the end of the month, suggesting potential underestimation of risk in the options market [2] Gold vs. Bitcoin - Gold prices surged due to a combination of factors including falling rate expectations, persistent inflation, trade deficits, a weaker dollar, and geopolitical risks [3] - The dismissal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook raised concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence, contributing to gold's price increase [3] - In contrast, bitcoin's price declined on the same day the news about the Fed Governor's dismissal was announced [3] Correlation Analysis - The correlation between bitcoin and gold has been inconsistent, with short-term correlations fluctuating between 12% and 16% over 30- and 90-day periods [4] - Over a longer 180-day horizon, the average correlation is slightly higher but still low, indicating that the two assets do not consistently move together [4] - Since 2024, the average 180-day rolling correlation has increased to around 60%, suggesting that the 'digital gold' narrative may be gaining traction among investors as the asset class matures [4]

Rick Rieder, Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income at BlackRock, said Tuesday that an “ideal” investment portfolio should have exposure to hard assets such as gold and Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC). Bitcoin A Hedge Against Fiat Depreciation? During an interview with CNBC, Rieder said that gold, Bitcoin and assets that provide a “ballast” against potential currency depreciation should be on investors’ radar. When asked about the percentage of Bitcoin allocation in a portfolio, Rieder said that 5% seems ...

Rick Rieder, Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income at BlackRock, said Tuesday that an “ideal” investment portfolio should have exposure to hard assets such as gold and Bitcoin BTC/USD. Bitcoin A Hedge Against Fiat Depreciation?During an interview with CNBC, Rieder said that gold, Bitcoin and assets that provide a “ballast” against potential currency depreciation should be on investors’ radar.When asked about the percentage of Bitcoin allocation in a portfolio, Rieder said that 5% seems “high” to h ...

Core Viewpoint - Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood believes Bitcoin will outperform gold in the long term despite recent price fluctuations [1][3]. Group 1: Bitcoin and Gold Comparison - The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio, which measures how many ounces of gold are needed to purchase one Bitcoin, has not broken its uptrend but has faced a setback due to Bitcoin's stagnation and gold's price increase [2]. - Bitcoin reached a record price of $124,457.12 on August 14 but has since declined by 3.75% over the last month [3]. - In contrast, gold has rallied over 7% during the same period, achieving a record price of $3,645.67 per ounce on September 8 [4]. Group 2: Market Influences - Geopolitical concerns have contributed to gold's recent rally, positioning it as the best-performing asset of the year, surpassing Bitcoin [5]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that gold could reach $5,000 per ounce if ongoing tensions between President Trump and the Federal Reserve persist [5]. - The tokenization of gold is seen as a factor that enhances its appeal to crypto-native investors, allowing them to include gold in their portfolios without the need for physical bullion or ETFs [5].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Global Macro Strategy with a specific emphasis on gold and Polish equities (WIG20) Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Gold Market Outlook**: - The macro conditions are bullish for gold due to rising stagflation risks in the US, with leading indicators suggesting further labor market weakness and increasing CPI components [2][10] - Strong global gold ETF inflows were observed post-Jackson Hole, indicating a shift towards gold as a hedge against economic uncertainty [2][10] - Spot gold has broken out of a four-month range, supported by strong ETF flows and performance during Asian trading hours, suggesting continued upward momentum [3][15] 2. **Investment Strategy**: - A new trade was initiated to buy gold spot at $3476.89 with a target of $3750 and a stop at $3330, risking $500k [8] - The strategy includes an overweight position in precious metals within the Global Asset Allocation portfolio, reflecting a bullish macro setup for gold [10][18] 3. **Polish Equity Market**: - The decision to close out the long WIG20 position was made due to negative domestic factors, including a rise in corporate tax on banks and the dismissal of Orlen's CFO, which undermined market sentiment [4][25] - The initial bullish outlook on WIG20 was based on strong corporate fundamentals and positive geopolitical developments, which have since deteriorated [25] Additional Important Content 1. **Technical Analysis**: - The correlation between gold returns and 10-year UST yields has shifted, indicating that gold may receive a flight-to-safety bid as inflation risks persist [12][16] - Historical backtesting shows that buying gold when gold mining stocks outperform has yielded better returns, reinforcing the current bullish stance on gold [18][21] 2. **Market Dynamics**: - The Fed's dovish stance and the potential for stickier inflation could lead to increased demand for gold as a hedge, especially as financial conditions remain loose [10][12] - The labor market's ongoing deterioration is expected to influence the Fed's policy decisions, further supporting gold prices [10] 3. **Risk Considerations**: - Risks to the gold trade include potential improvements in US labor data, which could impact gold's attractiveness as a hedge [8][10] - The Polish equity market faces significant headwinds from political and economic developments, necessitating a cautious approach [4][25]

Core Viewpoint - The United States Commodity ETF (USCI) has reached a 52-week high, increasing by 31.55% from its 52-week low of $58.51 per share, indicating potential for further gains in the near term [1][5]. Group 1: Fund Overview - USCI tracks the SummerHaven Dynamic Commodity Index Total Return, which reflects the performance of a portfolio of 14 commodity futures [2]. - The fund charges an annual fee of 111 basis points [2]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The commodity sector is experiencing upward momentum due to rising commodity prices and increasing inflation expectations [3]. - Factors such as heightened safe-haven demand, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and predictions of a September interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve are contributing to the rise in gold prices [3]. - Coffee prices have surged as a result of U.S. tariffs [3]. Group 3: Inflation Hedge - With consumers' 12-month inflation expectations on the rise and Federal Reserve Chair Powell emphasizing inflation concerns, commodities are viewed as an attractive hedge against inflation [4]. Group 4: Performance Outlook - USCI is expected to maintain its strong performance in the near term, supported by a positive weighted alpha of 25.44, suggesting the possibility of another rally [5].